Optimization Strategies Based on Sequential Quadratic Programming Applied for a Fermentation Process for Butanol Production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reliability assessment of energy limited systems using sequential montecarlo simulation

This paper explains why the reliability assessment of energy limited systems requires more detailed models for primary generating resources availability, internal and external generating dispatch and customer demand than the ones commonly used for large power systems and presents a methodology based on the full sequential Montecarlo simulation technique with AC power flow for their long term reliability assessment which can properly include these detailed models. By means of a real example, it is shown how the simplified modeling traditionally used for large power systems leads to pessimistic predictions if it is applied to an energy limited system and also that it cannot predict all the load point adequacy problems. © 2006 IEEE.

Modeling for performance analysis of electromagnetic zero-sequence suppressor

The purpose of this work is to present a frequency domain model to demonstrate the operation of an electromagnetic arrangement for controlling the injection of zero-sequence currents in the electrical system. Considering the diversity of sequential distribution of harmonic components of a current, the device proposed can be used in the process of mitigation of zero-sequence components. This device, here called electromagnetic suppressor, consists of a blocker and filter both electromagnetic, whose joint operation can provide paths of high and low impedances that can be conveniently adjusted in order to search for a desired performance. This study presents physical considerations, mathematical modeling and computer simulations that clearly demonstrate the viability of this application as a more viable alternative in the conception of filtering systems. The performance analysis is based on the frequency response of harmonic transmittances. The efficacy of this technique in direct actions to maximize the harmonic mitigation process is demonstrated. ©2010 IEEE.

Computational modeling of surface interactions

Die Wechselwirkung zwischen Proteinen und anorganischen Oberflächen fasziniert sowohl aus angewandter als auch theoretischer Sicht. Sie ist ein wichtiger Aspekt in vielen Anwendungen, unter anderem in chirugischen Implantaten oder Biosensoren. Sie ist außerdem ein Beispiel für theoretische Fragestellungen betreffend die Grenzfläche zwischen harter und weicher Materie. Fest steht, dass Kenntnis der beteiligten Mechanismen erforderlich ist um die Wechselwirkung zwischen Proteinen und Oberflächen zu verstehen, vorherzusagen und zu optimieren. Aktuelle Fortschritte im experimentellen Forschungsbereich ermöglichen die Untersuchung der direkten Peptid-Metall-Bindung. Dadurch ist die Erforschung der theoretischen Grundlagen weiter ins Blickfeld aktueller Forschung gerückt. Eine Möglichkeit die Wechselwirkung zwischen Proteinen und anorganischen Oberflächen zu erforschen ist durch Computersimulationen. Obwohl Simulationen von Metalloberflächen oder Proteinen als Einzelsysteme schon länger verbreitet sind, bringt die Simulation einer Kombination beider Systeme neue Schwierigkeiten mit sich. Diese zu überwinden erfordert ein Mehrskalen-Verfahren: Während Proteine als biologische Systeme ausreichend mit klassischer Molekulardynamik beschrieben werden können, bedarf die Beschreibung delokalisierter Elektronen metallischer Systeme eine quantenmechanische Formulierung. Die wichtigste Voraussetzung eines Mehrskalen-Verfahrens ist eine Übereinstimmung der Simulationen auf den verschiedenen Skalen. In dieser Arbeit wird dies durch die Verknüpfung von Simulationen alternierender Skalen erreicht. Diese Arbeit beginnt mit der Untersuchung der Thermodynamik der Benzol-Hydratation mittels klassischer Molekulardynamik. Dann wird die Wechselwirkung zwischen Wasser und den [111]-Metalloberflächen von Gold und Nickel mittels eines Multiskalen-Verfahrens modelliert. In einem weiteren Schritt wird die Adsorbtion des Benzols an Metalloberflächen in wässriger Umgebung studiert. Abschließend wird die Modellierung erweitert und auch die Aminosäuren Alanin und Phenylalanin einbezogen. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit realistische Protein- Metall-Systeme in Computersimulationen zu betrachten und auf theoretischer Basis die Wechselwirkung zwischen Peptiden und Oberflächen für jede Art Peptide und Oberfläche vorauszusagen.

Response surface modeling of the interaction between propofol and sevoflurane

BACKGROUND: Propofol and sevoflurane display additivity for gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor activation, loss of consciousness, and tolerance of skin incision. Information about their interaction regarding electroencephalographic suppression is unavailable. This study examined this interaction as well as the interaction on the probability of tolerance of shake and shout and three noxious stimulations by using a response surface methodology. METHODS: Sixty patients preoperatively received different combined concentrations of propofol (0-12 microg/ml) and sevoflurane (0-3.5 vol.%) according to a crisscross design (274 concentration pairs, 3 to 6 per patient). After having reached pseudo-steady state, the authors recorded bispectral index, state and response entropy and the response to shake and shout, tetanic stimulation, laryngeal mask airway insertion, and laryngoscopy. For the analysis of the probability of tolerance by logistic regression, a Greco interaction model was used. For the separate analysis of bispectral index, state and response entropy suppression, a fractional Emax Greco model was used. All calculations were performed with NONMEM V (GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD). RESULTS: Additivity was found for all endpoints, the Ce(50, PROP)/Ce(50, SEVO) for bispectral index suppression was 3.68 microg. ml(-1)/ 1.53 vol.%, for tolerance of shake and shout 2.34 microg . ml(-1)/ 1.03 vol.%, tetanic stimulation 5.34 microg . ml(-1)/ 2.11 vol.%, laryngeal mask airway insertion 5.92 microg. ml(-1) / 2.55 vol.%, and laryngoscopy 6.55 microg. ml(-1)/2.83 vol.%. CONCLUSION: For both electroencephalographic suppression and tolerance to stimulation, the interaction of propofol and sevoflurane was identified as additive. The response surface data can be used for more rational dose finding in case of sequential and coadministration of propofol and sevoflurane.

Modeling Framework for the Establishment of the Apical-Basal Embryonic Axis in Plants

The apical-basal axis of the early plant embryo determines the body plan of the adult organism. To establish a polarized embryonic axis, plants evolved a unique mechanism that involves directional, cell-to-cell transport of the growth regulator auxin. Auxin transport relies on PIN auxin transporters 1], whose polar subcellular localization determines the flow directionality. PIN-mediated auxin transport mediates the spatial and temporal activity of the auxin response machinery 2-7] that contributes to embryo patterning processes, including establishment of the apical (shoot) and basal (root) embryo poles 8]. However, little is known of upstream mechanisms guiding the (re)polarization of auxin fluxes during embryogenesis 9]. Here, we developed a model of plant embryogenesis that correctly generates emergent cell polarities and auxin-mediated sequential initiation of apical-basal axis of plant embryo. The model relies on two precisely localized auxin sources and a feedback between auxin and the polar, subcellular PIN transporter localization. Simulations reproduced PIN polarity and auxin distribution, as well as previously unknown polarization events during early embryogenesis. The spectrum of validated model predictions suggests that our model corresponds to a minimal mechanistic framework for initiation and orientation of the apical-basal axis to guide both embryonic and postembryonic plant development.

Revealing Assembly of a Pore-Forming Complex Using Single-Cell Kinetic Analysis and Modeling

Many biological processes depend on the sequential assembly of protein complexes. However, studying the kinetics of such processes by direct methods is often not feasible. As an important class of such protein complexes, pore-forming toxins start their journey as soluble monomeric proteins, and oligomerize into transmembrane complexes to eventually form pores in the target cell membrane. Here, we monitored pore formation kinetics for the well-characterized bacterial pore-forming toxin aerolysin in single cells in real time to determine the lag times leading to the formation of the first functional pores per cell. Probabilistic modeling of these lag times revealed that one slow and seven equally fast rate-limiting reactions best explain the overall pore formation kinetics. The model predicted that monomer activation is the rate-limiting step for the entire pore formation process. We hypothesized that this could be through release of a propeptide and indeed found that peptide removal abolished these steps. This study illustrates how stochasticity in the kinetics of a complex process can be exploited to identify rate-limiting mechanisms underlying multistep biomolecular assembly pathways.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

A coalescent analysis for modeling the mutation process in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is the forth most common diagnosed cancer in the United States. Every year about a hundred forty-seven thousand people will be diagnosed with colorectal cancer and fifty-six thousand people lose their lives due to this disease. Most of the hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) and 12% of the sporadic colorectal cancer show microsatellite instability. Colorectal cancer is a multistep progressive disease. It starts from a mutation in a normal colorectal cell and grows into a clone of cells that further accumulates mutations and finally develops into a malignant tumor. In terms of molecular evolution, the process of colorectal tumor progression represents the acquisition of sequential mutations. ^ Clinical studies use biomarkers such as microsatellite or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to study mutation frequencies in colorectal cancer. Microsatellite data obtained from single genome equivalent PCR or small pool PCR can be used to infer tumor progression. Since tumor progression is similar to population evolution, we used an approach known as coalescent, which is well established in population genetics, to analyze this type of data. Coalescent theory has been known to infer the sample's evolutionary path through the analysis of microsatellite data. ^ The simulation results indicate that the constant population size pattern and the rapid tumor growth pattern have different genetic polymorphic patterns. The simulation results were compared with experimental data collected from HNPCC patients. The preliminary result shows the mutation rate in 6 HNPCC patients range from 0.001 to 0.01. The patients' polymorphic patterns are similar to the constant population size pattern which implies the tumor progression is through multilineage persistence instead of clonal sequential evolution. The results should be further verified using a larger dataset. ^

Artificial neural network modeling of phytoestrogen binding to estrogen receptors

Differential pathophysiological roles of estrogen receptors alpha (ERα) and beta (ERβ) are of particular interest for phytochemical screening. A QSAR incorporating theoretical descriptors was developed in the present study utilizing sequential multiple-output artificial neural networks. Significant steric, constitutional, topological and electronic descriptors were identified enabling ER affinity differentiation.

High performance numerical modeling of ultra-short laser pulse propagation based on multithreaded parallel hardware

The focus of this study is development of parallelised version of severely sequential and iterative numerical algorithms based on multi-threaded parallel platform such as a graphics processing unit. This requires design and development of a platform-specific numerical solution that can benefit from the parallel capabilities of the chosen platform. Graphics processing unit was chosen as a parallel platform for design and development of a numerical solution for a specific physical model in non-linear optics. This problem appears in describing ultra-short pulse propagation in bulk transparent media that has recently been subject to several theoretical and numerical studies. The mathematical model describing this phenomenon is a challenging and complex problem and its numerical modeling limited on current modern workstations. Numerical modeling of this problem requires a parallelisation of an essentially serial algorithms and elimination of numerical bottlenecks. The main challenge to overcome is parallelisation of the globally non-local mathematical model. This thesis presents a numerical solution for elimination of numerical bottleneck associated with the non-local nature of the mathematical model. The accuracy and performance of the parallel code is identified by back-to-back testing with a similar serial version.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Fitting phase type distribution to service process with sequential phases

The work of this thesis is concerned with fitting Hypo-exponential and Erlang phase type distributions for modeling real life processes with non-exponential service time. There exist situations where exponential distributions cannot explain the distribution of service time properly. This thesis presents the application of two traditional statistical estimation techniques to approximate the service distributions of processes with coefficient of variation less than one. It also presents an algorithm to fit Hypo-exponential distribution for complex situations which can’t be handled properly with traditional estimation techniques. The result shows the effect of variation of sample size and other parameters on the efficiency of the estimation techniques by comparing their respective outputs. Furthermore it checks how accurately the proposed algorithm approximates a given distribution.

Condensed phase combustion travelling waves with sequential exothermic or endothermic reactions

The one-dimensional propagation of a combustion wave through a premixed solid fuel for two-stage kinetics is studied. We re-examine the analysis of a single reaction travelling-wave and extend it to the case of two-stage reactions. We derive an expression for the travelling wave speed in the limit of large activation energy for both reactions. The analysis shows that when both reactions are exothermic, the wave structure is similar to the single reaction case. However, when the second reaction is endothermic, the wave structure can be significantly different from single reaction case. In particular, as might be expected, a travelling wave does not necessarily exist in this case. We establish conditions in the limiting large activation energy limit for the non-existence, and for monotonicity of the temperature profile in the travelling wave.