Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Seasonal variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a subarctic population : the Tromso Study 1979-2008

Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

Analysing seasonal data

Many common diseases, such as the flu and cardiovascular disease, increase markedly in winter and dip in summer. These seasonal patterns have been part of life for millennia and were first noted in ancient Greece by both Hippocrates and Herodotus. Recent interest has focused on climate change, and the concern that seasons will become more extreme with harsher winter and summer weather. We describe a set of R functions designed to model seasonal patterns in disease. We illustrate some simple descriptive and graphical methods, a more complex method that is able to model non-stationary patterns, and the case–crossover for controlling for seasonal confounding.

Utilization of bio-oil for cooking and lighting

Considerable attention has been given to development of renewable energy due to imminent depletion of fossil fuels and environmental concerns over global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to find out all the available alternative sources of energy immediately to meet the increasing energy demand of Bangladesh. Among the available alternative sources of energy in Bangladesh bio-oil is recognized to be a promising alternative energy source. In these days bio-oil is merely used in vehicles and power plants after some up gradation .However, it is not used for domestic purposes like cooking and lighting due to it’s high density and viscosity. A gravity stove is designed to use this high dense and viscous bio-oil for cooking purpose. Efficiency of gravity stove with high dense and viscous bio-oil (karanj) is 11.81% which of kerosene stove is 17.80% also the discharge of karanj oil through gravity stove is sufficient for continuous burning.

'Savoir fare': are cooking skills a new morality

There has been a recent surge of interest in cooking skills in a diverse range of fields, such as health, education and public policy. There appears to be an assumption that cooking skills are in decline and that this is having an adverse impact on individual health and well-being, and family wholesomeness. The problematisation of cooking skills is not new, and can be seen in a number of historical developments that have specified particular pedagogies about food and eating. The purpose of this paper is to examine pedagogies on cooking skills and the importance accorded them. The paper draws on Foucault’s work on governmentality. By using examples from the USA, UK and Australia, the paper demonstrates the ways that authoritative discourses on the know how and the know what about food and cooking – called here ‘savoir fare’ – are developed and promulgated. These discourses, and the moral panics in which they are embedded, require individuals to make choices about what to cook and how to cook, and in doing so establish moral pedagogies concerning good and bad cooking. The development of food literacy programmes, which see cooking skills as life skills, further extends the obligations to ‘cook properly’ to wider populations. The emphasis on cooking knowledge and skills has ushered in new forms of government, firstly, through a relationship between expertise and politics which is readily visible through the authority that underpins the need to develop skills in food provisioning and preparation; secondly, through a new pluralisation of ‘social’ technologies which invites a range of private-public interest through, for example, television cooking programmes featuring cooking skills, albeit it set in a particular milieu of entertainment; and lastly, through a new specification of the subject can be seen in the formation of a choosing subject, one which has to problematise food choice in relation to expert advice and guidance. A governmentality focus shows that as discourses develop about what is the correct level of ‘savoir fare’, new discursive subject positions are opened up. Armed with the understanding of what is considered expert-endorsed acceptable food knowledge, subjects judge themselves through self-surveillance. The result is a powerful food and family morality that is both disciplined and disciplinary.

Recipe for success : cooking up a storm in the technology classroom

Ingredients: - 1 cup Vision - 100ml ‘Real World’ Application - 100ml Unit Structure/Organisation - 100ml Student-centric Approach [optional: Add Social Media/Popular Culture for extra goodness] - Large Dollop of Passion + Enthusiasm - Sprinkle of Approachability Mix all ingredients well. Cover and leave to rise in a Lecture Theatre for 1.5 hours. Cook in a Classroom for 1.5 hours. Garnish with a dash of Humour before serving. Serves 170 Students

Cooking enhances but the degree of ripeness does not affect provitamin A carotenoid bioavailability from bananas

Banana is a staple crop in many regions where vitamin A deficiency is prevalent, making it a target for provitamin A biofortification. However, matrix effects may limit provitamin A bioavailability from bananas. The retinol bioefficacies of unripe and ripe bananas (study 1A), unripe high-provitamin A bananas (study 1B), and raw and cooked bananas (study 2) were determined in retinol-depleted Mongolian gerbils (n = 97/study) using positive and negative controls. After feeding a retinol-deficient diet for 6 and 4 wk in studies 1 and 2, respectively, customized diets containing 60, 30, or 15% banana were fed for 17 and 13 d, respectively. In study 1A, the hepatic retinol of the 60% ripe Cavendish group (0.52 ± 0.13 μmol retinol/liver) differed from baseline (0.65 ± 0.15 μmol retinol/liver) and was higher than the negative control group (0.39 ± 0.16 μmol retinol/liver; P < 0.0065). In study 1B, no groups differed from baseline (0.65 ± 0.15 μmol retinol/liver; P = 0.20). In study 2, the 60% raw Butobe group (0.68 ± 0.17 μmol retinol/liver) differed from the 60% cooked Butobe group (0.87 ± 0.24 μmol retinol/liver); neither group differed from baseline (0.80 ± 0.27 μmol retinol/liver; P < 0.0001). Total liver retinol was higher in the groups fed cooked bananas than in those fed raw (P = 0.0027). Body weights did not differ even though gerbils ate more green, ripe, and raw bananas than cooked, suggesting a greater indigestible component. In conclusion, thermal processing, but not ripening, improves the retinol bioefficacy of bananas. Food matrix modification affects carotenoid bioavailability from provitamin A biofortification targets.

Role of land use and seasonal factors in water quality degradation

Surface water and groundwater are the most important water sources in the natural environment. Land use and seasonal factors play an important role in influencing the quality of these water sources. An in-depth understanding of the role of these two influential factors can help to implement an effective catchment management strategy for the protection of these water sources. This paper discusses the outcomes of an extensive research study which investigated the role of land use and seasonal factors on surface water and groundwater pollution in a mixed land use coastal catchment. The study confirmed that the influence exerted on the water environment by seasonal factors is secondary to that of land use. Furthermore, the influence of land use and seasonal factors on surface water and groundwater quality varies with the pollutant species. This highlights the need to specifically take into consideration the targeted pollutants and the key influential factors for the effective protection of vulnerable receiving water environments.

Children exposure assessment to ultrafine particles and black carbon: The role of transport and cooking activities

An accurate evaluation of the airborne particle dose-response relationship requires detailed measurements of the actual particle concentration levels that people are exposed to, in every microenvironment in which they reside. The aim of this work was to perform an exposure assessment of children in relation to two different aerosol species: ultrafine particles (UFPs) and black carbon (BC). To this purpose, personal exposure measurements, in terms of UFP and BC concentrations, were performed on 103 children aged 8-11 years (10.1 ± 1.1 years) using hand-held particle counters and aethalometers. Simultaneously, a time-activity diary and a portable GPS were used to determine the children’s daily time-activity pattern and estimate their inhaled dose of UFPs and BC. The median concentration to which the study population was exposed was found to be comparable to the high levels typically detected in urban traffic microenvironments, in terms of both particle number (2.2×104 part. cm-3) and BC (3.8 μg m-3) concentrations. Daily inhaled doses were also found to be relatively high and were equal to 3.35×1011 part. day-1 and 3.92×101 μg day-1 for UFPs and BC, respectively. Cooking and using transportation were recognized as the main activities contributing to overall daily exposure, when normalized according to their corresponding time contribution for UFPs and BC, respectively. Therefore, UFPs and BC could represent tracers of children exposure to particulate pollution from indoor cooking activities and transportation microenvironments, respectively.

Seasonal amplitude of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China : a call for attention to neglected regions

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne viral disease characterized by fever, hemorrhagic, kidney damage and hypotension, is caused by different species of hantaviruses [1]. Every year, HFRS affects thousands of people in Asia, and more than 90% of these cases are reported in China [2, 3]. Due to its high fatality, HFRS has attracted considerable research attention, and prior studies have predominantly focused on quantifying HFRS morbidity [4], identifying high risk areas [5] and populations [6], or exploring peak time of HFRS occurrence [3]. To date, no study has assessed the seasonal amplitude of HFRS in China, even though it reveals the seasonal fluctuation and thus may provide pivotal information on the possibility of HFRS outbreaks.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Seasonal factors influencing the failure of buried water reticulation pipes

While the use of environmental factors in the analysis and prediction of failures of buried reticulation pipes in cold environments has been the focus of extensive work, the same cannot be said for failures occurring on pipes in other (non-freezing) environments. A novel analysis of pipe failures in such an environment is the subject of this paper. An exploratory statistical analysis was undertaken, identifying a peak in failure rates during mid to late summer. This peak was found to correspond to a peak in the rate of circumferential failures, whilst the rate of longitudinal failures remained constant. Investigation into the effect of climate on failure rates revealed that the peak in failure rates occurs due to differential soil movement as the result of shrinkage in expansive soils.