Cetaceans of Southeast Alaska: Distribution and Seasonal Occurrence

Aim To assess the distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends of cetaceans. Location The study area included all major inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Methods Between 1991 and 2007, cetacean surveys were conducted by observers who kept a constant watch when the vessel was underway and recorded all cetaceans encountered. For each species, we examined distributional patterns, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends. Analysis of variance (anova F) was used to test for differences in group sizes between multiple means, and Student’s t-test was used to detect differences between pairwise means. Cetacean seasonal occurrence and annual trends were investigated using a generalized linear model framework. Results Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were seen throughout the region, with numbers lowest in spring and highest in the fall. Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) distributions were more restricted than that reported for humpback whales, and the low number of sightings precluded evaluating seasonal trends. Three killer whale (Orcinus orca) eco-types were documented with distributions occurring throughout inland waters. Seasonal patterns were not detected or could not be evaluated for resident and offshore killer whales, respectively; however, the transient eco-type was more abundant in the summer. Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) were distributed throughout the region, with more sightings in spring and summer than in fall. Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution was clumped, with concentrations occurring in the Icy Strait/Glacier Bay and Wrangell areas and with no evidence of seasonality. Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) were observed only occasionally, with more sightings in the spring. For most species, group size varied on both an annual and seasonal basis. Main conclusions Seven cetacean species occupy the inland waters of Southeast Alaska, with distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends varying by species. Future studies that compare spatial and temporal patterns with other features (e.g. oceanography, prey resources) may help in identifying the key factors that support the high density and biodiversity of cetaceans found in this region. An increased understanding of the region’s marine ecology is an essential step towards ensuring the long-term conservation of cetaceans in Southeast Alaska.

Seasonal Distributions of Satellite-Measured Phytoplankton Pigment Concentration Along the Chilean Coast

Five years (1979-1983) of Coastal Zone Color Scanner satellite ocean color data are used to examine seasonal patterns of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the Chilean coast from 20 degrees S to 45 degrees S. Four kilometer resolution, 2-4 day composites document the presence of filaments of elevated pigment concentration extending offshore throughout the study area, with maximum offshore extension at higher latitudes. In three years, 1979, 1981, and 1983, sufficient data exist in monthly composites to allow recreation of portions of the seasonal cycle. Data in 1979 are the most complete. Near-shore concentrations and cross-shelf extension of pigment concentrations in 1979 are maximum in austral winter throughout the study area and minimum in summer. Available data from 1981 and 1983 are consistent with this temporal pattern but with concentrations approximately double those of 1979. Seasonal, spatial patterns within 10 km of shore and 50 km offshore indicate a latitudinal discontinuity both in absolute concentration and in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle at approximately 33 degrees S in both 1979 and in the climatological time series. The discontinuity is strongest ill fall-winter and weakest in summer. South of this latitude, concentrations are relatively high (2-3 mg m(-3) in 1979), a strong seasonal cycle is present, and patterns 50 km offshore are correlated with those within 10 km of shore. North of 33 degrees S, concentrations are < 1.5 mg m(-3) (in 1979), and the seasonal cycle within 10 km of shore is present but much weaker and less obviously correlated with that 50 km offshore. The seasonal cycle of pigment concentrations is 180 degrees out of phase with monthly averaged upwelling favorable winds. Noncoincident Pathfinder sea surface temperature data show that over most latitudes, coastal low surface temperatures lag wind forcing by 1-2 months, but these too are out of phase with the pigment seasonal cycle. These data point to control of pigment patterns along the Chilean coast by the interaction of upwelling with circulation patterns unconnected to local wind forcing.

Seasonal dynamics of an aquatic macroinvertebrate assembly (Hydrobiological case study of Lake Balaton No. 2)

In 2002, 2003 and 2004, we took macoinvertebrate samples on a total of 36 occasions at the Badacsony bay of Lake Balaton. Our sampling site was characterised by areas of open water (in 2003 and 2004 full of reed-grass) as well as by areas covered by common reed (Phragmites australis) and narrowleaf cattail (Typha angustifolia). Samples were taken both from water body and benthic ooze by use of a stiff hand net. We have gained our data from processing 208 individual samples. We took samples frequently from early spring until late autumn for a deeper understanding of the processes of seasonal dynamics. The main seasonal patterns and temporal changes of diversity were described. We constructed a weather-dependent simulation model of the processes of seasonal dynamics in the interest of a possible further utilization of our data in climate change research. We described the total number of individuals, biovolume and diversity of all macroinvertebrate species with a single index and used the temporal trends of this index for simulation modelling. Our discrete deterministic model includes only the impact of temperature, other interactions might only appear concealed. Running the model for different climate change scenarios it became possible to estimate conditions for the 2070-2100 period. The results, however, should be treated very prudently not only because our model is very simple but also because the scenarios are the results of different models.

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic patterns in South Florida coastal ecosystems: Modern and paleoceanographic perspectives

Long term management plans for restoration of natural flow conditions through the Everglades increase the importance of understanding potential nutrient impacts of increased freshwater delivery on coastal biogeochemistry. The present study sought to increase understanding of the coastal marine system of South Florida under modern conditions and through the anthropogenic changes in the last century, on scales ranging from individual nutrient cycle processes to seasonal patterns in organic material (OM) under varying hydrodynamic regime, to century scale analysis of sedimentary records. In all applications, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic compositions of OM were examined as natural recorders of change and nutrient cycling in the coastal system. ^ High spatial and temporal variability in stable isotopic compositions were observed on all time scales. During a transient phytoplankton bloom, δ 15N values suggested nitrogen fixation as a nutrient source supporting enhanced productivity. Seasonally, particulate organic material (POM) from ten sites along the Florida Reef Tract and in Florida Bay demonstrated variable fluctuations dependent on hydrodynamic setting. Three separate intra-annual patterns were observed, yet statistical differences were observed between groupings of Florida Bay and Atlantic Ocean sites. The POM δ 15N values ranged on a quarterly basis by 7‰, while δ 13C varied by 22‰. From a sediment history perspective, four cores collected from Florida Bay further demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the system in isotopic composition of bulk OM over time. Source inputs of OM varied with location, with terrestrial inputs dominating proximal to Everglades freshwater discharge, seagrasses dominating in open estuary cores, and a marine mixture of phytoplankton and seagrass in a core from the boundary zone between Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant shifts in OM geochemistry were observed coincident with anthropogenic events of the 20th century, including railroad and road construction in the Florida Keys and Everglades, and also the extensive drainage changes in Everglades hydrology. The sediment record also preserved evidence of the major hurricanes of the last century, with excursions in geochemical composition coincident with Category 4-5 storms. ^

Enigmatic faunal declines at La Selva, Costa Rica: Patterns and processes in a collapsing neotropical herpetofauna

Amphibian populations are declining even in pristine areas in many parts of the world, and in the Neotropics most such enigmatic amphibian declines have occurred in mid- to high-elevation sites. However, amphibian populations have also declined at La Selva Biological Station in the lowlands of Costa Rica, and similar declines in populations of lizards have occurred at the site as well. To set the stage for describing amphibian declines at La Selva, I thoroughly review knowledge of amphibian decline and amphibian conservation in Central America: I describe general patterns in biodiversity, evaluate major patterns in and ecological correlates of threat status, review trends in basic and applied conservation literature, and recommend directions for future research. I then synthesize data on population densities of amphibians, as well as ecologically similar reptiles, over a 35-year periods using quantitative datasets from a range of studies. This synthesis identifies assemblage-wide declines of approximately 75% for both amphibians and reptiles between 1970 and 2005. Because these declines defy patterns most commonly reported in the Neotropics, it is difficult to assess causality evoking known processes associated with enigmatic decline events. I conduct a 12-month pathogen surveillance program to evaluate infection of frogs by the amphibian chytrid fungus, an emerging pathogen linked to decline events worldwide Although lowland forests are generally believed to be too warm for presence or adverse population effects of chytridiomycosis, I present evidence for seasonal patterns in infection prevalence with highest prevalence in the coolest parts of the year. Finally, I conducted a 16-month field experiment to explore the role of changes to dynamics of leaf litter, a critical resource for both frogs and lizards. Population responses by frogs and lizards indicate that litter regulates population densities of frogs and lizards, particularly those species with the highest decline rate. My work illustrates that sites that are assumed to be pristine are likely impacted by a variety of novel stressors, and that even fauna within protected areas may be suffering unexpected declines.

Spatial and seasonal variability in elemental content, δ13C, and δ15N ofThalassia testudinum from South Florida and its implications for ecosystem studies

Elemental and isotopic composition of leaves of the seagrassThalassia testudinum was highly variable across the 10,000 km2 and 8 years of this study. The data reported herein expand the reported range in carbon:nitrogen (C:N) and carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios and δ13C and δ15N values reported for this species worldwide; 13.2–38.6 for C:N and 411–2,041 for C:P. The 981 determinations in this study generated a range of −13.5‰ to −5.2‰ for δ13C and −4.3‰ to 9.4‰ for δ15N. The elemental and isotope ratios displayed marked seasonality, and the seasonal patterns could be described with a simple sine wave model. C:N, C:P, δ13C, and δ15N values all had maxima in the summer and minima in the winter. Spatial patterns in the summer maxima of these quantities suggest there are large differences in the relative availability of N and P across the study area and that there are differences in the processing and the isotopic composition of C and N. This work calls into question the interpretation of studies about nutrient cycling and food webs in estuaries based on few samples collected at one time, since we document natural variability greater than the signal often used to imply changes in the structure or function of ecosystems. The data and patterns presented in this paper make it clear that there is no threshold δ15N value for marine plants that can be used as an unambiguous indicator of human sewage pollution without a thorough understanding of local temporal and spatial variability.

Application of excitation emission matrix fluorescence monitoring in the assessment of spatial and seasonal drivers of dissolved organic matter composition: Sources and physical disturbance controls

The environmental dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were characterized for a shallow, subtropical, seagrass-dominated estuarine bay, namely Florida Bay, USA. Large spatial and seasonal variations in DOM quantity and quality were assessed using dissolved organic C (DOC) measurements and spectrophotometric properties including excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Surface water samples were collected monthly for 2 years across the bay. DOM characteristics were statistically different across the bay, and the bay was spatially characterized into four basins based on chemical characteristics of DOM as determined by EEM-PARAFAC. Differences between zones were explained based on hydrology, geomorphology, and primary productivity of the local seagrass community. In addition, potential disturbance effects from a very active hurricane season were identified. Although the overall seasonal patterns of DOM variations were not significantly affected on a bay-wide scale by this disturbance, enhanced freshwater delivery and associated P and DOM inputs (both quantity and quality) were suggested as potential drivers for the appearance of algal blooms in high impact areas. The application of EEM-PARAFAC proved to be ideally suited for studies requiring high sample throughput methods to assess spatial and temporal ecological drivers and to determine disturbance-induced impacts in aquatic ecosystems.

Carbon and Nitrogen Stable Isotopic Patterns in South Florida Coastal Ecosystems: Modern and Paleoceanographic Perspectives

Long term management plans for restoration of natural flow conditions through the Everglades increase the importance of understanding potential nutrient impacts of increased freshwater delivery on coastal biogeochemistry. The present study sought to increase understanding of the coastal marine system of South Florida under modern conditions and through the anthropogenic changes in the last century, on scales ranging from individual nutrient cycle processes to seasonal patterns in organic material (OM) under varying hydrodynamic regime, to century scale analysis of sedimentary records. In all applications, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic compositions of OM were examined as natural recorders of change and nutrient cycling in the coastal system. High spatial and temporal variability in stable isotopic compositions were observed on all time scales. During a transient phytoplankton bloom, ä15N values suggested nitrogen fixation as a nutrient source supporting enhanced productivity. Seasonally, particulate organic material (POM) from ten sites along the Florida Reef Tract and in Florida Bay demonstrated variable fluctuations dependent on hydrodynamic setting. Three separate intra-annual patterns were observed, yet statistical differences were observed between groupings of Florida Bay and Atlantic Ocean sites. The POM ä15N values ranged on a quarterly basis by 7‰, while ä13C varied by 22‰. From a sediment history perspective, four cores collected from Florida Bay further demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the system in isotopic composition of bulk OM over time. Source inputs of OM varied with location, with terrestrial inputs dominating proximal to Everglades freshwater discharge, seagrasses dominating in open estuary cores, and a marine mixture of phytoplankton and seagrass in a core from the boundary zone between Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant shifts in OM geochemistry were observed coincident with anthropogenic events of the 20th century, including railroad and road construction in the Florida Keys and Everglades, and also the extensive drainage changes in Everglades hydrology. The sediment record also preserved evidence of the major hurricanes of the last century, with excursions in geochemical composition coincident with Category 4-5 storms.

Seasonal concentration of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean

This research delves into analyzing the seasonality of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean by using the decomposition of the Gini index, used in the field of cruise tourism for the first time in literature. This study specifically used the decomposition to evaluate the contribution degree of each port to the global seasonal concentration of each Mediterranean region. Moreover, a cluster analysis technique (bootstrapped bagged clustering) was applied to classify the ports into homogeneous groups according to their seasonal patterns given the significant heterogeneity revealed in the major regions of the Mediterranean. The methodology applied can serve as a control and monitoring tool for measuring seasonal concentration levels in cruise tourism, allowing for policies against seasonality to be tailored in the cruise tourism segment.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Laying date and laying sequence influence the sex ratio of crimson rosella broods

We examine the patterns of sex allocation in crimson rosellas Platycercus elegans, a socially monogamous Australian parrot. Overall, 41.8% of nestlings were male, a significant female bias. However underlying this population-level bias were non-random patterns of sex allocation within broods. Broods produced early in the season were female-biased, but the proportion of males in a brood increased as the breeding season progressed. Female rosellas may obtain greater fitness benefits from early-fledging daughters than sons because daughters can breed as 1-year-olds whereas sons do not breed until they are at least 2 years old. Laying date and laying sequence also interacted to influence the sex ratio of eggs. The sex of early-laid eggs strongly followed the brood level pattern, whereas the sex of middle- and late-laid eggs did not change significantly as the season progressed. Nevertheless, late-laid eggs were very unlikely to be male at the end of the season. We argue these differing seasonal patterns reflect the relative costs and benefits to producing early-hatched males and females at different times of the season. Female rosellas appear to maximise the probability that daughters are able to breed early but to minimise competitive asymmetries within the brood. In particular, late-hatched male chicks are disadvantaged if their oldest sibling is male, explaining the dearth of broods containing late-hatched males at the end of the breeding season.

Investigação dos efeitos das atividades de observação de cetáceos e natação com golfinhos: implicações para a conservação da natureza

Jornadas "Ciência nos Açores- que futuro?", Biblioteca Pública e Arquivo Regional de Ponta Delgada, Largo do Colégio, Ponta Delgada, 7-8 de junho de 2013.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Is land surface temperature an earthquake precursor?

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.