Controlling chaos? The value and the challenges of applying complexity theory to project management

The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

Complex modelling in the primary/middle school years

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual (Katehi, Pearson, & Feder, 2009). With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to significant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientific thinking that are required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden children’s mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This paper first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Next, consideration is given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling. Examples of complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities across grades are presented, with data modelling in 1st grade, model-eliciting in 4th grade, and engineering-based modelling in 7th-9th grades.

Measuring complexity for building projects : a Delphi study

Purpose---The aim of this study is to identify complexity measures for building projects in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Design/Methodology/Approach---A three-round of Delphi questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the key parameters that measure the degree of project complexity. A complexity index (CI) was developed based on the identified measures and their relative importance. Findings---Six key measures of project complexity have been identified, which include, namely (1) building structure & function; (2) construction method; (3) the urgency of the project schedule; (4) project size/scale; (5) geological condition; and (6) neighboring environment. Practical implications---These complexity measures help stakeholders assess degrees of project complexity and better manage the potential risks that might be induced to different levels of project complexity. Originality/Value---The findings provide insightful perspectives to define and understand project complexity. For stakeholders, understanding and addressing the complexity help to improve project planning and implementation.

The challenges of ethical decision making in an Australian school

The focus of this case study concerns Peter Davies, one of three Assistant Principals in a large Australian secondary school, who faces an ethical dilemma regarding a student discipline issue. It is an important case because it underscores the point that ethical decision-making for leaders is fraught with complexity and whatever decision is made, there will be implications for all parties concerned.

Risk, uncertainty and complexity in science education

Increasingly societies and their governments are facing important social issues that have science and technology as key features. A number of these socio-scientific issues have two features that distinguish them from the restricted contexts in which school science has traditionally been presented. Some of their science is uncertain and scientific knowledge is not the only knowledge involved. As a result, the concepts of uncertainty, risk and complexity become essential aspects of the science underlying these issues. In this chapter we discuss the nature and role of these concepts in the public understanding of science and consider their links with school science. We argue that these same concepts and their role in contemporary scientific knowledge need to be addressed in school science curricula. The new features for content, pedagogy and assessment of this urgent challenge for science educators are outlined. These will be essential if the goal of science education for citizenship is to be achieved with our students, who will increasingly be required to make personal and collective decisions on issues involving science and technology.

Measuring reef complexity and rugosity from monocular video bathymetric reconstruction

Topographic structural complexity of a reef is highly correlated to coral growth rates, coral cover and overall levels of biodiversity, and is therefore integral in determining ecological processes. Modeling these processes commonly includes measures of rugosity obtained from a wide range of different survey techniques that often fail to capture rugosity at different spatial scales. Here we show that accurate estimates of rugosity can be obtained from video footage captured using underwater video cameras (i.e., monocular video). To demonstrate the accuracy of our method, we compared the results to in situ measurements of a 2m x 20m area of forereef from Glovers Reef atoll in Belize. Sequential pairs of images were used to compute fine scale bathymetric reconstructions of the reef substrate from which precise measurements of rugosity and reef topographic structural complexity can be derived across multiple spatial scales. To achieve accurate bathymetric reconstructions from uncalibrated monocular video, the position of the camera for each image in the video sequence and the intrinsic parameters (e.g., focal length) must be computed simultaneously. We show that these parameters can be often determined when the data exhibits parallax-type motion, and that rugosity and reef complexity can be accurately computed from existing video sequences taken from any type of underwater camera from any reef habitat or location. This technique provides an infinite array of possibilities for future coral reef research by providing a cost-effective and automated method of determining structural complexity and rugosity in both new and historical video surveys of coral reefs.

Cross-cultural language learning and web design complexity

Accepting the fact that culture and language are interrelated in second language learning (SLL), the web sites should be designed to integrate with the cultural aspects. Yet many SLL web sites fail to integrate with the cultural aspects and/or focus on language acquisition only. This study identified three issues: (1) anthropologists’ cultural models mostly adopted in cross-cultural web user interface have been superficially used; (2) web designers deal with culture as a fixed one which needs to be modeled into interface design elements, so (3) there is a need for a communication framework between educators and design practitioners, which can be utilized in web design processes. This paper discusses what anthropology can contribute to language learning, mediated through web design processes and suggests a cultural user experience framework for web-based SLL by presenting an exemplary matrix. To evaluate the effectiveness of the framework, the key stakeholders (learners, teachers, and designers) participated in a case scenario-based evaluation. The result shows a high possibility that the framework can enhance the effective communication and collaboration for the cultural integration.

Engaging complexity through collaborative brand design

In this research we used inductive reasoning through design to understand how stakeholders in the Waterfall Way (New South Wales, Australia) perceive the relationships between themselves and the place they live in. This paper describes a collaborative design methodology used to release information about local identities, which guided the regional brand exercise. The methodology is explicit about the uncertainties and complexities of the design process and of its reception system. As such, it aims to engage with local stakeholders and experts in order to help elicit tacit knowledge and identify system patterns and trends that would possibly not be visible if a top-down expert-based process was used. Through collective design, local people were drawn together in search for a symbol to represent the meaning attached to their places/region in relation to sustainable tourism activity.

School-based programs for increasing connectedness and reducing risk behavior : a systematic review

School connectedness has a significant impact on adolescent outcomes, including reducing risk taking behavior. This paper critically examines the literature on school-based programs targeting increased connectedness for reductions in risk taking. Fourteen articles describing seven different school-based programs were reviewed. Programs drew on a range of theories to increase school connectedness, and evaluations conducted for the majority of programs demonstrated positive changes in school connectedness, risk behavior, or a combination of the two. Many of the reviewed programs involved widespread school system change, however, which is frequently a complex and time consuming task. Future research is needed to examine the extent of intervention complexity required to result in change. This review also showed a lack of consistency in definitions and measurement of connectedness as well as few mediation analyses testing assumptions of impact on risk taking behavior through increases in school connectedness. Additionally, this review revealed very limited evaluation of the elements of multi-component programs that are most effective in increasing school connectedness and reducing adolescent risk taking.

Investigating the complexity of judgement practice

Underlying all assessments are human judgements regarding the quality of students’ understandings. Despite their ubiquity, those judgements are conceptually elusive. The articles selected for inclusion in this issue explore the complexity of judgement practice raising critical questions that challenge existing views and accepted policy and practice.

How difficult are exams? A framework for assessing the complexity of introductory programming exams

Student performance on examinations is influenced by the level of difficulty of the questions. It seems reasonable to propose therefore that assessment of the difficulty of exam questions could be used to gauge the level of skills and knowledge expected at the end of a course. This paper reports the results of a study investigating the difficulty of exam questions using a subjective assessment of difficulty and a purpose-built exam question complexity classification scheme. The scheme, devised for exams in introductory programming courses, assesses the complexity of each question using six measures: external domain references, explicitness, linguistic complexity, conceptual complexity, length of code involved in the question and/or answer, and intellectual complexity (Bloom level). We apply the scheme to 20 introductory programming exam papers from five countries, and find substantial variation across the exams for all measures. Most exams include a mix of questions of low, medium, and high difficulty, although seven of the 20 have no questions of high difficulty. All of the complexity measures correlate with assessment of difficulty, indicating that the difficulty of an exam question relates to each of these more specific measures. We discuss the implications of these findings for the development of measures to assess learning standards in programming courses.

Complexity of increasing the secure connectivity in wireless ad hoc networks

We consider the problem of maximizing the secure connectivity in wireless ad hoc networks, and analyze complexity of the post-deployment key establishment process constrained by physical layer properties such as connectivity, energy consumption and interference. Two approaches, based on graph augmentation problems with nonlinear edge costs, are formulated. The first one is based on establishing a secret key using only the links that are already secured by shared keys. This problem is in NP-hard and does not accept polynomial time approximation scheme PTAS since minimum cutsets to be augmented do not admit constant costs. The second one extends the first problem by increasing the power level between a pair of nodes that has a secret key to enable them physically connect. This problem can be formulated as the optimal key establishment problem with interference constraints with bi-objectives: (i) maximizing the concurrent key establishment flow, (ii) minimizing the cost. We prove that both problems are NP-hard and MAX-SNP with a reduction to MAX3SAT problem.

Advantages of tandem LC-MS for the rapid assessment of tissue-specific metabolic complexity using a pentafluorophenylpropyl stationary phase

In this study, a tandem LC-MS (Waters Xevo TQ) MRM-based MS method was developed for rapid, broad profiling of hydrophilic metabolites from biological samples, in either positive or negative ion modes without the need for an ion pairing reagent, using a reversed-phase pentafluorophenylpropyl (PFPP) column. The developed method was successfully applied to analyze various biological samples from C57BL/6 mice, including urine, duodenum, liver, plasma, kidney, heart, and skeletal muscle. As result, a total 112 of hydrophilic metabolites were detected within 8 min of running time to obtain a metabolite profile of the biological samples. The analysis of this number of hydrophilic metabolites is significantly faster than previous studies. Classification separation for metabolites from different tissues was globally analyzed by PCA, PLS-DA and HCA biostatistical methods. Overall, most of the hydrophilic metabolites were found to have a "fingerprint" characteristic of tissue dependency. In general, a higher level of most metabolites was found in urine, duodenum, and kidney. Altogether, these results suggest that this method has potential application for targeted metabolomic analyzes of hydrophilic metabolites in a wide ranges of biological samples.