Reconstructing the evolutionary history of China: A caveat about inferences drawn from ancient DNA

The decipherment of the meager information provided by short fragments of ancient mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is notoriously difficult but is regarded as a most promising way toward reconstructing the past from the genetic perspective. By haplogroup-specific hypervariable segment (HVS) motif search and matching or near-matching with available modem data sets, most of the ancient mtDNAs can be tentatively assigned to haplogroups, which are often subcontinent specific. Further typing for mtDNA haplogroup-diagnostic coding region polymorphisms, however, is indispensable for establishing the geographic/genetic affinities of ancient samples with less ambiguity. In the present study, we sequenced a fragment (similar to 982 bp) of the mtDNA control region in 76 Han individuals from Taian, Shandong, China, and we combined these data with previously reported samples from Zibo and Qingdao, Shandong. The reanalysis of two previously published ancient mtDNA population data sets from Linzi (same province) then indicates that the ancient populations had features in common with the modem populations from south China rather than any specific affinity to the European mtDNA pool. Our results highlight that ancient mtDNA data obtained under different sampling schemes and subject to potential contamination can easily create the impression of drastic spatiotemporal changes in the genetic structure of a regional population during the past few thousand years if inappropriate methods of data analysis are employed.

Compressive video sensors using multichannel imagers.

We explore the possibilities of obtaining compression in video through modified sampling strategies using multichannel imaging systems. The redundancies in video streams are exploited through compressive sampling schemes to achieve low power and low complexity video sensors. The sampling strategies as well as the associated reconstruction algorithms are discussed. These compressive sampling schemes could be implemented in the focal plane readout hardware resulting in drastic reduction in data bandwidth and computational complexity.

The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships

Species-area relationships (SAR) are fundamental in the understanding of biodiversity patterns and of critical importance for predicting species extinction risk worldwide. Despite the enormous attention given to SAR in the form of many individual analyses, little attempt has been made to synthesize these studies. We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis of 794 SAR, comprising a wide span of organisms, habitats and locations. We identified factors reflecting both pattern-based and dynamic approaches to SAR and tested whether these factors leave significant imprints on the slope and strength of SAR. Our analysis revealed that SAR are significantly affected by variables characterizing the sampling scheme, the spatial scale, and the types of organisms or habitats involved. We found that steeper SAR are generated at lower latitudes and by larger organisms. SAR varied significantly between nested and independent sampling schemes and between major ecosystem types, but not generally between the terrestrial and the aquatic realm. Both the fit and the slope of the SAR were scale-dependent. We conclude that factors dynamically regulating species richness at different spatial scales strongly affect the shape of SAR. We highlight important consequences of this systematic variation in SAR for ecological theory, conservation management and extinction risk predictions.

Effets des nanoparticules manufacturées sur les cellules pulmonaires humaines

La détection et la caractérisation des nanoparticules manufacturées (NPM) est l’une des premières étapes pour contrôler et diminuer leurs risques potentiels sur la santé humaine et l’environnement. Différents systèmes d’échantillonnage dans l’air existent pour l’évaluation d’une exposition aux NPM. Cependant, ils ne mesurent pas le risque potentiel de cette exposition à la santé humaine ni les mécanismes cellulaires qui en seraient responsables. Nos objectifs de recherche sont 1) Évaluer les effets de différents types de nanoparticules sur des cellules pulmonaires humaines et 2) Identifier de nouveaux mécanismes intracellulaires activés lors de l’exposition à divers types de NPM. Méthodologie: La lignée de cellules A549 a été utilisée. Trois types de NPM ont été étudiés (différentes concentrations et temps d’exposition): les nanoparticules de dioxyde de titane de type anatase (TiO2), les nanotubes de carbone simple paroi (NTCSP) et les nanoparticules de noir de carbone (NC). La viabilité cellulaire a été mesurée par le test MTS, le test PrestoBlue et le test d’exclusion du bleu de Trypan (uniquement pour les NTCSP). La mesure du stress oxydatif a été déterminée par la mesure des dérivés réactifs de l’oxygène (ROS) en utilisant l’essai DCFH-DA. L’activation d’une réponse anti-oxydative a été déterminée par la mesure de la forme réduite (GSH) et oxydée (GSSG) du glutathion, ainsi que du ratio GSH/GSSG (seulement avec NTCSP et TiO2). Résultats: Les trois nanoparticules ne semblent pas être toxiques pour les cellules A549 car il y a une diminution significative mais minime de la viabilité cellulaire. Cependant, elles induisent une augmentation du contenu intracellulaire en ROS qui est à la fois dépendante du temps et de la concentration. Aucun changement dans les concentrations de GSH et GSSG n’a été observé. En conclusion, nos données indiquent que la mesure de la viabilité n’est pas un critère suffisant pour conclure à la toxicité des NPM. La production de ROS est un critère intéressant, cependant il faudra démontrer l’activation de systèmes anti-oxydatifs pour expliquer l’absence de mortalité cellulaire suite à l’exposition aux NPM.

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesian viewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentrates mass around the small, or null, model. For testing independence in contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement. Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled by a discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays an important role in the resulting answer regardless of the sample size. In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independence in contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors with different degree of concentration around the null, and compare with other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency of the intrinsic Bayesian tests is established. We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes, and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin or the table total, but not on both margins. Examples using real are simulated data are given

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Modelos dinâmicos e simulação estocástica

This paper presents new methodology for making Bayesian inference about dy~ o!s for exponential famiIy observations. The approach is simulation-based _~t> use of ~vlarkov chain Monte Carlo techniques. A yletropolis-Hastings i:U~UnLlllll 1::; combined with the Gibbs sampler in repeated use of an adjusted version of normal dynamic linear models. Different alternative schemes are derived and compared. The approach is fully Bayesian in obtaining posterior samples for state parameters and unknown hyperparameters. Illustrations to real data sets with sparse counts and missing values are presented. Extensions to accommodate for general distributions for observations and disturbances. intervention. non-linear models and rnultivariate time series are outlined.

Measurements of ambient ozone using indigo blue-coated filters

Ozone monitoring techniques utilize expensive instruments that are often large and heavy. These instruments are not easy to handle in the field, and their size also limits some sampling schemes, principally for indoor ozone determination. We have developed a lightweight, inexpensive, and sensitive method that offers flexibility to undertake measurements of ambient ozone in many environments, both indoor and outdoor. The method is based on the reaction of ozone with indigo blue dye. The indigo molecule contains 1 carbon double bond (C = C) that reacts with ozone and results in nearly colorless reaction products. During sample collection, 2 cellulose filters coated with 40 mu L of 1.0 x 10(-3) M indigo blue were used. The determinations were done spectrophotometrically at 250 and 600 nm. The analytical parameters studied were sampling time and flow rate. Analytical curves were constructed with concentrations ranging from 37 to 123 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) of standard ozone, at 0.4 L/min and 15 min sampling time. The detection limits achieved were 6 and 9 ppbv, respectively, at 250 and 600 nm. Considering interferences, measurements made at 250 nm gave more reliable and specific values for ozone.

Variabilidade espacial de atributos de um nitossolo vermelho distrófico de Botucatu/SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Trichome structure and evolution in Neotropical lianas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gráficos de controle de Shewhart: Duas década de pesquisa

Esta tese apresenta, de forma compacta, os trabalhos mais importantes do autor, que são frutos de uma pesquisa de vinte anos sobre gráficos de Shewhart. O autor estudou os modelos que descrevem o tipo e o instante de ocorrência das causas especiais, propôs novos esquemas de amostragens e estatísticas de monitoramento. Mais recentemente, vem avaliando a capacidade dos gráficos de controle em sinalizar causas especiais quando as observações são autocorrelacionadas e propondo novas estatísticas para o monitoramento de processos mutivariados.

A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

Moment Based Inference with Stratified Data

Many datasets used by economists and other social scientists are collected by stratified sampling. The sampling scheme used to collect the data induces a probability distribution on the observed sample that differs from the target or underlying distribution for which inference is to be made. If this effect is not taken into account, subsequent statistical inference can be seriously biased. This paper shows how to do efficient semiparametric inference in moment restriction models when data from the target population is collected by three widely used sampling schemes: variable probability sampling, multinomial sampling, and standard stratified sampling.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.