The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models

Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface-air-temperature change is nonlinear in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative – i.e. the effective climate sensitivity increases – as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM-mean approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the topics (30N-30S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving pattern of surface warming is confirmed using the HadGEM2 and HadCM3 atmosphere GCMs (AGCMs). With monthly evolving sea-surface-temperatures and sea-ice prescribed from its AOGCM counterpart each AGCM reproduces the time-varying feedbacks, but when a fixed pattern of warming is prescribed the radiative response is linear with global temperature change or nearly so. We also demonstrate that the regression and fixed-SST methods for evaluating effective radiative forcing are in principle different, because rapid SST adjustment when CO2 is changed can produce a pattern of surface temperature change with zero global mean but non-zero change in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (~ -0.5 Wm-2 in HadCM3).

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

Underway measurements of halocarbons (air) during POSEIDON cruise POS399 in June 2010

During the DRIVE (Diurnal and Regional Variability of Halogen Emissions) ship campaign we investigated the variability of the halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) bromoform (CHBr3), dibromomethane (CH2Br2) and methyl iodide (CH3I) in the marine atmospheric boundary layer in the eastern tropical and subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during May/June 2010. The highest VSLS mixing ratios were found near the Mauritanian coast and close to Lisbon (Portugal). With backward trajectories we identified predominantly air masses from the open North Atlantic with some coastal influence in the Mauritanian upwelling area, due to the prevailing NW winds. The maximum VSLS mixing ratios above the Mauritanian upwelling were 8.92 ppt for bromoform, 3.14 ppt for dibromomethane and 3.29 ppt for methyl iodide, with an observed maximum range of the daily mean up to 50% for bromoform, 26% for dibromomethane and 56% for methyl iodide. The influence of various meteorological parameters - such as wind, surface air pressure, surface air and surface water temperature, humidity and marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) height - on VSLS concentrations and fluxes was investigated. The strongest relationship was found between the MABL height and bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide abundances. Lowest MABL heights above the Mauritanian upwelling area coincide with highest VSLS mixing ratios and vice versa above the open ocean. Significant high anti-correlations confirm this relationship for the whole cruise. We conclude that especially above oceanic upwelling systems, in addition to sea-air fluxes, MABL height variations can influence atmospheric VSLS mixing ratios, occasionally leading to elevated atmospheric abundances. This may add to the postulated missing VSLS sources in the Mauritanian upwelling region (Quack et al., 2007).

Air Temperature Distribution and Energy-balance Modelling of a Debris-covered Glacier

Near-surface air temperature is an important determinant of the surface energy balance of glaciers and is often represented by a constant linear temperature gradients (TGs) in models. Spatiotemporal variability in 2 m air temperature was measured across the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Italy, over an 89 d period during the 2014 ablation season using a network of 19 stations. Air temperature was found to be strongly dependent upon elevation for most stations, even under varying meteorological conditions and at different times of day, and its spatial variability was well explained by a locally derived mean linear TG (MG–TG) of −0.0088°C m−1. However, local temperature depressions occurred over areas of very thin or patchy debris cover. The MG–TG, together with other air TGs, extrapolated from both on- and off-glacier sites, were applied in a distributed energy-balance model. Compared with piecewise air temperature extrapolation from all on-glacier stations, modelled ablation, using the MG–TG, increased by <1%, increasing to >4% using the environmental ‘lapse rate’. Ice melt under thick debris was relatively insensitive to air temperature, while the effects of different temperature extrapolation methods were strongest at high elevation sites of thin and patchy debris cover.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COLUMN DENSITY AND SURFACE MIXING RATIO FOR O3 AND NO2: IMPLICATIONS FOR SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND THE IMPACTS OF VERTICAL MIXING

Satellites have great potential for diagnosis of surface air quality conditions, though reduced sensitivity of satellite instrumentation to the lower troposphere currently impedes their applicability. One objective of the NASA DISCOVER-AQ project is to provide information relevant to improving our ability to relate satellite-observed columns to surface conditions for key trace gases and aerosols. In support of DISCOVER-AQ, this dissertation investigates the degree of correlation between O3 and NO2 column abundance and surface mixing ratio during the four DISCOVER-AQ deployments; characterize the variability of the aircraft in situ and model-simulated O3 and NO2 profiles; and use the WRF-Chem model to further investigate the role of boundary layer mixing in the column-surface connection for the Maryland 2011 deployment, and determine which of the available boundary layer schemes best captures the observations. Simple linear regression analyses suggest that O3 partial column observations from future satellite instruments with sufficient sensitivity to the lower troposphere may be most meaningful for surface air quality under the conditions associated with the Maryland 2011 campaign, which included generally deep, convective boundary layers, the least wind shear of all four deployments, and few geographical influences on local meteorology, with exception of bay breezes. Hierarchical clustering analysis of the in situ O3 and NO2 profiles indicate that the degree of vertical mixing (defined by temperature lapse rate) associated with each cluster exerted an important influence on the shapes of the median cluster profiles for O3, as well as impacted the column vs. surface correlations for many clusters for both O3 and NO2. However, comparisons to the CMAQ model suggest that, among other errors, vertical mixing is overestimated, causing too great a column-surface connection within the model. Finally, the WRF-Chem model, a meteorology model with coupled chemistry, is used to further investigate the impact of vertical mixing on the O3 and NO2 column-surface connection, for an ozone pollution event that occurred on July 26-29, 2011. Five PBL schemes were tested, with no one scheme producing a clear, consistent “best” comparison with the observations for PBLH and pollutant profiles; however, despite improvements, the ACM2 scheme continues to overestimate vertical mixing.

Bubbly Flow Structure in Hydraulic Jump

In an open channel, a hydraulic jump is the rapid transition from super- to sub-critical flow associated with strong turbulence and air bubble entrainment in the mixing layer. New experiments were performed at relatively large Reynolds numbers using phase-detection probes. Some new signal analysis provided characteristic air-water time and length scales of the vortical structures advecting the air bubbles in the developing shear flow. An analysis of the longitudinal air-water flow structure suggested little bubble clustering in the mixing layer, although an interparticle arrival time analysis showed some preferential bubble clustering for small bubbles with chord times below 3 ms. Correlation analyses yielded longitudinal air-water time scales Txx*V1/d1 of about 0.8 in average. The transverse integral length scale Z/d1 of the eddies advecting entrained bubbles was typically between 0.25 and 0.4, irrespective of the inflow conditions within the range of the investigations. Overall the findings highlighted the complicated nature of the air-water flow

Avaliação da dose glandular média (MGD) em três sistemas mamográficos

Este estudo tem por objectivos determinar a Dose Glandular Média - Mean Glandular Dose (MGD) - em 3 sistemas de Mamografia e comparar os valores obtidos com os referenciais internacionais. O estudo foi realizado num sistema analógico de Écran-Película (EP) e em dois sistemas de imagem digital (CR e DR). Foi efectuado o cálculo da Entrance Surface Air Kerma (ESAK) e da MGD em três equipamentos a partir de uma amostra de dados referentes a 30 mulheres assintomáticas, com idades compreendidas entre os 40 e 64 anos. Em cada equipamento objecto de análise, foram recolhidos os dados referentes a 10 mulheres. Foram consideradas as projecções crânio-caudal (CC) e oblíqua médio-lateral (MLO). A análise de resultados revelou que o valor de MGD varia quando se compara os três sistemas. Nas incidências CC os valores de MGD obtidos foram de 1,54 mGy (EP), 1,78 mGy (CR) e 0,82 mGy (DR). Nas incidências MLO o valor de MGD foi de 1,53 mGy no sistema EP, de 1,78 mGy no CR e 0,87 mGy no sistema DR. Constata-se que o valor de MGD na incidência de CC é inferior ao valor de MGD na incidência MLO, excepto para o sistema EP. Verifica-se também que o sistema EP apresenta maior variabilidade nos dados de MGD comparativamente com os restantes sistemas. O sistema DR é o que apresenta a menor variabilidade de valores MGD e também valores de MGD mais baixos. Comparando os resultados deste estudo com as referências internacionais, verifica-se que a MGD se encontra abaixo do limite de 2 mGy recomendado. ABSTRACT - This study aims to estimate the Mean Glandular Dose (MGD) associated with three different mammographic systems and compare the results with recommended international reference values. The systems included in the study included a conventional Screen-Film (SF) system and two digital mammography systems (CR and DR). Entrance Surface Air Kerma (ESAK) and MGD associated with each equipment were calculated. A sample of 30 healthy women (age ranging from 40 to 64 years old) undertaking screening mammography was considered in this study. The mammographic exam includes two projections, cranio-caudal (CC) and medio-lateral oblique (MLO). The MGD results obtained for CC projection were 1,54 mGy (SF), 1,78 mGy (CR) and 0,82 mGy (DR). MGD values for the MLO projection were 1,53 mGy (SF), 1,78 mGy (CR) and 0,87 mGy (DR). Results show that MGD value is slightly lower in the CC projection than in MLO, except for the SF system (1,54 mGy; 1,53 mGy). In addition the MGD for the SF system varied more than that associated with the digital systems. The DR system allows a narrow variation of MGD values and also lower MGD values. Comparing this study results with the international references we concluded that MGD values are below the 2 mGy recommended value for the three systems evaluated.

Proteção radiológica em mamografia

Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde. Área de especialização: Proteção contra Radiações.

Определение массовой концентрации твердого аэрозоля в приземном слое атмосферы г. Тбилиси

წარმოდგენილია ქ. თბილისში ატმოსფეროს მიწისპირა ფენაში არსებული მყარი აეროზოლის მასური კონცენტრაციის კვლევის ექსპერიმენტული მონაცემები.

Potential of local bio-geoengineering to mitigate dangerous temperature increases in a global warming scenario

Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

Potential of local bio-geoengineering to mitigate dangerous temperature increases in a global warming scenario

Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.