Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Chargaff symmetric stochastic processes

Scopo della modellizzazione delle stringhe di DNA è la formulazione di modelli matematici che generano sequenze di basi azotate compatibili con il genoma esistente. In questa tesi si prendono in esame quei modelli matematici che conservano un'importante proprietà, scoperta nel 1952 dal biochimico Erwin Chargaff, chiamata oggi "seconda regola di Chargaff". I modelli matematici che tengono conto delle simmetrie di Chargaff si dividono principalmente in due filoni: uno la ritiene un risultato dell'evoluzione sul genoma, mentre l'altro la ipotizza peculiare di un genoma primitivo e non intaccata dalle modifiche apportate dall'evoluzione. Questa tesi si propone di analizzare un modello del secondo tipo. In particolare ci siamo ispirati al modello definito da da Sobottka e Hart. Dopo un'analisi critica e lo studio del lavoro degli autori, abbiamo esteso il modello ad un più ampio insieme di casi. Abbiamo utilizzato processi stocastici come Bernoulli-scheme e catene di Markov per costruire una possibile generalizzazione della struttura proposta nell'articolo, analizzando le condizioni che implicano la validità della regola di Chargaff. I modelli esaminati sono costituiti da semplici processi stazionari o concatenazioni di processi stazionari. Nel primo capitolo vengono introdotte alcune nozioni di biologia. Nel secondo si fa una descrizione critica e prospettica del modello proposto da Sobottka e Hart, introducendo le definizioni formali per il caso generale presentato nel terzo capitolo, dove si sviluppa l'apparato teorico del modello generale.

Stochastic processes strongly influence HIV-1 evolution during suboptimal protease-inhibitor therapy

It has long been assumed that HIV-1 evolution is best described by deterministic evolutionary models because of the large population size. Recently, however, it was suggested that the effective population size (Ne) may be rather small, thereby allowing chance to influence evolution, a situation best described by a stochastic evolutionary model. To gain experimental evidence supporting one of the evolutionary models, we investigated whether the development of resistance to the protease inhibitor ritonavir affected the evolution of the env gene. Sequential serum samples from five patients treated with ritonavir were used for analysis of the protease gene and the V3 domain of the env gene. Multiple reverse transcription–PCR products were cloned, sequenced, and used to construct phylogenetic trees and to calculate the genetic variation and Ne. Genotypic resistance to ritonavir developed in all five patients, but each patient displayed a unique combination of mutations, indicating a stochastic element in the development of ritonavir resistance. Furthermore, development of resistance induced clear bottleneck effects in the env gene. The mean intrasample genetic variation, which ranged from 1.2% to 5.7% before treatment, decreased significantly (P < 0.025) during treatment. In agreement with these findings, Ne was estimated to be very small (500–15,000) compared with the total HIV-1 RNA copy number. This study combines three independent observations, strong population bottlenecking, small Ne, and selection of different combinations of protease-resistance mutations, all of which indicate that HIV-1 evolution is best described by a stochastic evolutionary model.

Stochastic processes

Mode of access: Internet.

Branching Stochastic Processes: History, Theory, Applications

Косто В. Митов - Разклоняващите се стохастични процеси са модели на популационната динамика на обекти, които имат случайно време на живот и произвеждат потомци в съответствие с дадени вероятностни закони. Типични примери са ядрените реакции, клетъчната пролиферация, биологичното размножаване, някои химични реакции, икономически и финансови явления. В този обзор сме се опитали да представим съвсем накратко някои от най-важните моменти и факти от историята, теорията и приложенията на разклоняващите се процеси.

Branching Stochastic Processes: Regulation, Regeneration, Estimation, Applications

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.

A Generalized Quasi-Likelihood Estimator for Nonstationary Stochastic Processes−Asymptotic Properties and Examples

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F12, 62M05, 62M09, 62M10, 60G42.

Stochastic field processes in the mathematical modelling of damped transmission line vibrations

Wind-excited vibrations in the frequency range of 10 to 50 Hz due to vortex shedding often cause fatigue failures in the cables of overhead transmission lines. Damping devices, such as the Stockbridge dampers, have been in use for a long time for supressing these vibrations. The dampers are conveniently modelled by means of their driving point impedance, measured in the lab over the frequency range under consideration. The cables can be modelled as strings with additional small bending stiffness. The main problem in modelling the vibrations does however lay in the aerodynamic forces, which usually are approximated by the forces acting on a rigid cylinder in planar flow. In the present paper, the wind forces are represented by stochastic processes with arbitrary crosscorrelation in space; the case of a Kármán vortex street on a rigid cylinder in planar flow is contained as a limit case in this approach. The authors believe that this new view of the problem may yield useful results, particularly also concerning the reliability of the lines and the probability of fatigue damages. © 1987.

Parallel implementation of stochastic simulation for large scale cellular processes

Experimental and theoretical studies have shown the importance of stochastic processes in genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes. Cellular networks and genetic circuits often involve small numbers of key proteins such as transcriptional factors and signaling proteins. In recent years stochastic models have been used successfully for studying noise in biological pathways, and stochastic modelling of biological systems has become a very important research field in computational biology. One of the challenge problems in this field is the reduction of the huge computing time in stochastic simulations. Based on the system of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade that is activated by epidermal growth factor, this work give a parallel implementation by using OpenMP and parallelism across the simulation. Special attention is paid to the independence of the generated random numbers in parallel computing, that is a key criterion for the success of stochastic simulations. Numerical results indicate that parallel computers can be used as an efficient tool for simulating the dynamics of large-scale genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes

Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bending of stochastic Kirchhoff plates on Winkler foundations via the Galerkin method and the Askey-Wiener scheme

In this paper, the method of Galerkin and the Askey-Wiener scheme are used to obtain approximate solutions to the stochastic displacement response of Kirchhoff plates with uncertain parameters. Theoretical and numerical results are presented. The Lax-Milgram lemma is used to express the conditions for existence and uniqueness of the solution. Uncertainties in plate and foundation stiffness are modeled by respecting these conditions, hence using Legendre polynomials indexed in uniform random variables. The space of approximate solutions is built using results of density between the space of continuous functions and Sobolev spaces. Approximate Galerkin solutions are compared with results of Monte Carlo simulation, in terms of first and second order moments and in terms of histograms of the displacement response. Numerical results for two example problems show very fast convergence to the exact solution, at excellent accuracies. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme developed herein is able to reproduce the histogram of the displacement response. The scheme is shown to be a theoretically sound and efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galerkin Solution of Stochastic Beam Bending on Winkler Foundations

In this paper, the Askey-Wiener scheme and the Galerkin method are used to obtain approximate solutions to stochastic beam bending on Winkler foundation. The study addresses Euler-Bernoulli beams with uncertainty in the bending stiffness modulus and in the stiffness of the foundation. Uncertainties are represented by parameterized stochastic processes. The random behavior of beam response is modeled using the Askey-Wiener scheme. One contribution of the paper is a sketch of proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to problems involving fourth order operators applied to random fields. From the approximate Galerkin solution, expected value and variance of beam displacement responses are derived, and compared with corresponding estimates obtained via Monte Carlo simulation. Results show very fast convergence and excellent accuracies in comparison to Monte Carlo simulation. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme presented herein is shown to be a theoretically solid and numerically efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.