Population-level risks of physical activity: Saving bones and screening hearts

Documented risks of physical activity include reduced bone mineral density at high activity volume, and sudden cardiac death among adults and adolescents. Further illumination of these risks is needed to inform future public health guidelines. The present research seeks to 1) quantify the association between physical activity and bone mineral density (BMD) across a broad range of activity volume, 2) assess the utility of an existing pre-screening questionnaire among US adults, and 3) determine if pre-screening risk stratification by questionnaire predicts referral to physician among Texas adolescents. ^ Among 9,468 adults 20 years of age or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010, linear regression analyses revealed generally higher BMD at the lumbar spine and proximal femur with greater reported activity volume. Only lumbar BMD in women was unassociated with activity volume. Among men, BMD was similar at activity beyond four times the minimum volume recommended in the Physical Activity Guidelines. These results suggest that the range of activity reported by US adults is not associated with low BMD at either site. ^ The American Heart Association / American College of Sports Medicine Preparticipation Questionnaire (AAPQ) was applied to 6,661 adults 40 years of age or older from NHANES 2001-2004 by using NHANES responses to complete AAPQ items. Following AAPQ referral criteria, 95.5% of women and 93.5% of men would be referred to a physician before exercise initiation, suggesting little utility for the AAPQ among adults aged 40 years or older. Unnecessary referral before exercise initiation may present a barrier to exercise adoption and may strain an already stressed healthcare infrastructure. ^ Among 3181 athletes in the Texas Adolescent Athlete Heart Screening Registry, 55.2% of boys and 62.2% of girls were classified as high-risk based on questionnaire answers. Using sex-stratified contingency table analyses, risk categories were not significantly associated with referral to physician based on electrocardiogram or echocardiogram, nor were they associated with confirmed diagnoses on follow-up. Additional research is needed to identify which symptoms are most closely related to sudden cardiac death, and determine the best methods for rapid and reliable assessment. ^ In conclusion, this research suggests that the volume of activity reported by US adults is not associated with low BMD at two clinically relevant sites, casts doubts on the utility of two existing cardiac screening tools, and raises concern about barriers to activity erected through ineffective screening. These findings augment existing research in this area that may inform revisions to the Physical Activity Guidelines regarding risk mitigation.^

The financial stability risks of ultra-loose monetary policy. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2015/03

Ultra-loose monetary policies, such as very low or even negative interest rates, large-scale asset purchases, long-maturity lending to banks and forward guidance in central bank communication, aim to increase inflation and output, to the benefit of financial stability. But at the same time, these measures pose various risks and might create challenges for financial institutions. • By assessing the theoretical literature and developments in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan, where very expansionary monetary policies were adopted during the past six years, and by examining the euro-area situation, we conclude that the risks to financial stability of ultra-loose monetary policy in the euro area could be low. However, vigilance is needed. • While monetary policy should focus on its primary mandate of area-wide price stability, other policies should be deployed whenever the financial cycle deviates from the economic cycle or when heterogeneous financial developments in the euro area require financial tightening in some but not all countries. These policies include micro-prudential supervision, macro-prudential oversight, fiscal policy and regulation of sectors that pose risks to financial stability, such as construction.

Válság és hitelderivatívák. A szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) árazása és kockázataik (Crisis and loan derivatives. The pricing and risks of synthetic collateralized debt obligations)

A dolgozat első részében röviden áttekintjük a 2007-ben kezdődött pénzügyi válság lefolyását és a válsághoz vezető okokat. A bemutatás során igyekszünk végig a mögöttes folyamatokra és azok mozgatórugóira koncentrálni, ezzel megragadva a válság egyfajta "elméletét". A bemutatásból láthatóvá válik a hitelderivatívák kiemelt szerepe a válság során. A dolgozat második részében az egyik legnépszerűbb hitelderivatív termék, a szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) matematikai modellezését és annak problémáit mutatjuk be. Sokak szerint ezek a matematikai modellek okozták - vagy legalábbis felerősítették - a válságot. Az elemzés során megmutatjuk, hogy nemcsak a modellezési eszközök nem voltak megfelelők, hanem az árazás elve sem állta meg a helyét a kockázatsemleges árazási keretben. Ez az eredmény élesen rámutat a mögöttes elméletek válságára. / === / The first part of the paper examines briefly the financial crisis of 2007 and its causes, focusing on its driving processes and key motifs. This shows clearly the importance and centrality of credit derivatives in the crisis. The second part presents a mathematical modelling of one of the most popular credit derivative products: synthetic collateralized debt obligations, along with the drawbacks and problems of the modelling process. It is widely claimed that these products caused or at least precipitated the crises. The authors show not only that the modelling tools were inappropriate, but that the principle for pricing did not match adequately the risk-neutral valuation framework.

The corruption risks of EU funds in Hungary

In corruption, a group of players gain an economic advantage without providing any socially beneficial services in return, therefore corruption is considered to be a form of rent-seeking. Similar to other forms of rent-seeking, corruption causes losses on a societal level, due to the less efficient allocation of resources, as well as the costs of operation and prosecution. Fighting corruption is important not just because of ethical but also economic considerations. Contributions from the European Union are making possible the use of more funds than ever, and spending the full amount of this money is a priority preference of the government. The abundance of funds and the pressure on absorption increase corruption, by the managers of the funds overplanning the amount of money to be allocated to individual tender invitations, setting generous rules on eligible costs, and specifying low rates of own contribution wherever possible. As a result, the opportunities for rent-seeking are increased, as it is worth it for beneficiaries to carry out the project even after relinquishing part of the funds they have been awarded. Thus, the abundance of funds generates a sphere of corruption in which rent-seekers may appear on various levels of the system, often even without the knowledge or approval of those on higher decisionmaking levels.

Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Efficacy of early skin-to-skin contact on the rate of exclusive breastfeeding in term neonates: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Despite multiple benefits of breast milk, the rates of exclusive breastfeeding in developing countries are low. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of early skin -to -skin contact (SSC) on the rate of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) at 6 weeks of age among term neonates born by vaginal delivery. Methods: Term neonates born by vaginal delivery and did not require any resuscitation were randomized at birth to SSC (n=100) and control (n=100) group. Immediately after clamping the umbilical cord, SSC group neonates were placed on the bare bosom of mother and control group neonates were placed under a radiant warmer for a period of 45 minutes each while mothers underwent management of the third stage of labor and episiotomy repair. Pain experienced by mother during episiotomy repair was recorded using a numerical pain scale The primary outcome evaluated was the rate of exclusive breastfeeding at 6 weeks of postnatal age. Results: A significantly higher proportion of neonates were exclusively breastfeed at 6 weeks of age in the SSC group than in the control group (72% vs. 57.6%, p=0.04, relative risk: 1.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.0 -1.6). The pain score during episiotomy repair in mothers of the SSC group was significantly lower than the control group (4.74±0.85 versus 5.34±0.81; P <0.01). Conclusions: Early SSC significantly improved the rate of exclusively breastfeeding at 6 weeks of age among healthy term neonates. An important additional effect was a decrease in the amount of pain that mothers in the SSC group experienced during episiotomy repair.

The respiratory risks of cannabis smoking

Cannabis users have recently been told that cannabis smoking is ª relatively harmlessº 1 and presents ª minimal danger to the lungsº .2 These statements seem at odds with the similarities between the carcinogens and other toxic constituents in tobacco and cannabis smoke, the fact that un® ltered cannabis smoke contains more of some carcinogens than ® ltered tobacco smoke3,4 and other evidence that chronic cannabis smoking has adverse respiratory effects.5