Can Risk Management boost the supply of Affordable Housing Development and Management?

A shortage of affordable housing is a major problem in Australia today. This is mainly due to the limited supply of affordable housing that is provided by the non-government housing sector. Some private housing developers see the provision of affordable housing for lower income people as a high risk investment which offers a lower return than broader market-based housing. The scarcity of suitable land, a limited government ‘subsidy’, and increasing housing costs have not provided sufficient development incentives to encourage their investment despite the existing high demand for affordable housing. This study analyses the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit housing providers in South East Queensland, and draws conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences. In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment/response in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. These developers use an informal risk management process as part of their normal business process in accordance with industry standards. A simple qualitative matrix has been used to analyse probability and impacts using a qualitative scale - low, medium and high. For housing providers who have considered investing in affordable housing but have not yet implemented any such projects, affordable housing development is seen as an opportunity that needs to be approached with caution. The risks associated with such projects and the levels of acceptance of these are not consistently identified by current housing providers. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. This study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.

Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

A software framework for risk-aware business process management

With the large diffusion of Business Process Managemen (BPM) automation suites, the possibility of managing process-related risks arises. This paper introduces an innovative framework for process-related risk management and describes a working implementation realized by extending the YAWL system. The framework covers three aspects of risk management: risk monitoring, risk prevention, and risk mitigation. Risk monitoring functionality is provided using a sensor-based architecture, where sensors are defined at design time and used at run-time for monitoring purposes. Risk prevention functionality is provided in the form of suggestions about what should be executed, by who, and how, through the use of decision trees. Finally, risk mitigation functionality is provided as a sequence of remedial actions (e.g. reallocating, skipping, rolling back of a work item) that should be executed to restore the process to a normal situation.

Accident risk identification and its impact analyses for strategic construction safety management

The study presented in this paper reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, in order to understand the relationships between the risk factors and injury severity (e.g. fatalities, hospitalized injuries, or non-hospitalized injuries) and to develop a strategic prevention plan to reduce the likelihood of fatalities where an accident is unavoidable. The study specifically aims to: (1) verify the relationships among risk factors, accident types, and injury severity, (2) determine significant risk factors associated with each accident type that are highly correlated to injury severity, and (3) analyze the impact of the identified key factors on accident and fatality occurrence. The analysis results explained that safety managers’ roles are critical to reducing human-related risks—particularly misjudgement of hazardous situations—through safety training and education, appropriate use of safety devices and proper safety inspection. However, for environment-related factors, the dominant risk factors were different depending on the different accident types. The outcomes of this study will assist safety managers to understand the nature of construction accidents and plan for strategic risk mitigation by prioritizing high frequency risk factors to effectively control accident occurrence and manage the likelihood of fatal injuries on construction sites.

Assessing the suitability of existing spatial data for disaster planning and mitigation in Queensland

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in 2003 gave in-principle approval to a best-practice report recommending a holistic approach to managing natural disasters in Australia incorporating a move from a traditional response-centric approach to a greater focus on mitigation, recovery and resilience with community well-being at the core. Since that time, there have been a range of complementary developments that have supported the COAG recommended approach. Developments have been administrative, legislative and technological, both, in reaction to the COAG initiative and resulting from regular natural disasters. This paper reviews the characteristics of the spatial data that is becoming increasingly available at Federal, state and regional jurisdictions with respect to their being fit for the purpose for disaster planning and mitigation and strengthening community resilience. In particular, Queensland foundation spatial data, which is increasingly accessible by the public under the provisions of the Right to Information Act 2009, Information Privacy Act 2009, and recent open data reform initiatives are evaluated. The Fitzroy River catchment and floodplain is used as a case study for the review undertaken. The catchment covers an area of 142,545 km2, the largest river catchment flowing to the eastern coast of Australia. The Fitzroy River basin experienced extensive flooding during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods. The basin is an area of important economic, environmental and heritage values and contains significant infrastructure critical for the mining and agricultural sectors, the two most important economic sectors for Queensland State. Consequently, the spatial datasets for this area play a critical role in disaster management and for protecting critical infrastructure essential for economic and community well-being. The foundation spatial datasets are assessed for disaster planning and mitigation purposes using data quality indicators such as resolution, accuracy, integrity, validity and audit trail.

Managing risk in process-aware information systems

This research contributes a fully-operational approach for managing business process risk in near real-time. The approach consists of a language for defining risks on top of process models, a technique to detect such risks as they eventuate during the execution of business processes, a recommender system for making risk-informed decisions, and a technique to automatically mitigate the detected risks when they are no longer tolerable. Through the incorporation of risk management elements in all stages of the lifecycle of business processes, this work contributes to the effective integration of the fields of Business Process Management and Risk Management.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

Human health risk of toxic chemical pollutants generated from traffic and land use activities

The research project developed a quantitative approach to assess the risk to human health from heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater based on traffic and land use factors. The research outcomes are expected to strengthen the scientifically robust management and reuse of urban stormwater. The innovative methodology developed can be applied to evaluate human health risk in relation to toxic chemical pollutants in urban stormwater runoff and for the development of effective risk mitigation strategies.

Routes of Hendra Virus Excretion in Naturally-Infected Flying-Foxes: Implications for Viral Transmission and Spillover Risk

Pteropid bats or flying-foxes (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) are the natural host of Hendra virus (HeV) which sporadically causes fatal disease in horses and humans in eastern Australia. While there is strong evidence that urine is an important infectious medium that likely drives bat to bat transmission and bat to horse transmission, there is uncertainty about the relative importance of alternative routes of excretion such as nasal and oral secretions, and faeces. Identifying the potential routes of HeV excretion in flying-foxes is important to effectively mitigate equine exposure risk at the bat-horse interface, and in determining transmission rates in host-pathogen models. The aim of this study was to identify the major routes of HeV excretion in naturally infected flying-foxes, and secondarily, to identify between-species variation in excretion prevalence. A total of 2840 flying-foxes from three of the four Australian mainland species (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus and P. scapulatus) were captured and sampled at multiple roost locations in the eastern states of Queensland and New South Wales between 2012 and 2014. A range of biological samples (urine and serum, and urogenital, nasal, oral and rectal swabs) were collected from anaesthetized bats, and tested for HeV RNA using a qRT-PCR assay targeting the M gene. Forty-two P. alecto (n = 1410) had HeV RNA detected in at least one sample, and yielded a total of 78 positive samples, at an overall detection rate of 1.76% across all samples tested in this species (78/4436). The rate of detection, and the amount of viral RNA, was highest in urine samples (>serum, packed haemocytes >faecal >nasal >oral), identifying urine as the most plausible source of infection for flying-foxes and for horses. Detection in a urine sample was more efficient than detection in urogenital swabs, identifying the former as the preferred diagnostic sample. The detection of HeV RNA in serum is consistent with haematogenous spread, and with hypothesised latency and recrudesence in flying-foxes. There were no detections in P. poliocephalus (n = 1168 animals; n = 2958 samples) or P. scapulatus (n = 262 animals; n = 985 samples), suggesting (consistent with other recent studies) that these species are epidemiologically less important than P. alecto in HeV infection dynamics. The study is unprecedented in terms of the individual animal approach, the large sample size, and the use of a molecular assay to directly determine infection status. These features provide a high level of confidence in the veracity of our findings, and a sound basis from which to more precisely target equine risk mitigation strategies.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

Consideration of coastal risk in the Irish spatial planning process

The vulnerability of coastal areas to associated hazards is increasing due to population growth, development pressure and climate change. It is incumbent on coastal governance regimes to address the vulnerability of coastal inhabitants to these hazards. This is especially so at the local level where development planning and control has a direct impact on the vulnerability of coastal communities. To reduce the vulnerability of coastal populations, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be built into local spatial planning processes. Local government, however, operates within a complex hierarchal governance framework which may promote or limit particular actions. It is important, therefore, to understand how local coastal planning practices are shaped by national and supranational entities. Local governments also have to respond to the demands of local populations. Consequently, it is important to understand local populations’ perceptions of coastal risk and its management. Adopting an in-depth study of coastal planning in County Mayo, Ireland, this paper evaluates: (a) how European and national policies and legislation shape coastal risk management at local level; (b) the incorporation of risk management strategies into local plans; and (c) local perception of coastal risks and risk management. Despite a strong steer from supranational and national legislation and policy, statutory local plans are found to be lacking in appropriate risk mitigation or adaptation strategies. Local residents appear to be lulled into a sense of complacency towards these risks because of the low level of attention afforded to them by the local planning authorities. To avoid potentially disastrous consequences for local residents and businesses, it is imperative that this situation is redressed urgently. Based on our analysis, we recommend: the development and implementation of a national ICZM strategy, supported by detailed local ICZM plans; and obliging local government to address known risks in their plans rather than defer them to project level decision making.

Social Risk of Public Spending Cuts in Scotland: Local Authority Experiences

This paper relates to work supported by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation which examines the way Scottish Local Authorities have approached budget cuts (Asenova, et. al., 2013). Starting with a discussion of notions of social risk, we discuss the heightened challenges faced by local authorities. We note that the literature on public sector innovation predict such pressures would cause local authorities to engage in short term decision making and adopt a static coping approach to risk mitigation which is likely to stifle innovation and obstruct the creation of more coherent and resilient localities. Although we find this to have happened in some areas, we discuss two cases where these challenges have promoted innovative and inclusive approaches to service re-design and delivery.

Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

As a consequence of flood impacts, communities inhabiting mountain areas are increasingly affected by considerable damage to infrastructure and property. The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for a sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. Given these premises, firstly, a comprehensive method to derive flood hazard process scenarios for well-defined areas at risk is presented. Secondly, conceptualisations of a static and dynamic flood risk assessment are provided. These are based on formal schemes to compute the risk mitigation performance of devised mitigation strategies within the framework of economic cost-benefit analysis. In this context, techniques suitable to quantify the expected losses induced by the identified flood impacts are provided.