Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Impact of high PV penetration on distribution transformer life time

Integration of rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) in residential networks at moderate penetration levels is becoming a reality in many countries including Australia. Despite the technical challenges in properly accommodating PV units, one of the major benefits is the ability of PV units to extend useful life time of distribution transformers. This effect is not quantified in the existing literature. This paper carries out an analysis into the impacts of rooftop PVs at different penetration levels on the performance of distribution transformers and residential networks. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the benefit of the distribution transformer life extension brought about by customer-owned rooftop PV units. The proposed methodology is applied to a real distribution system with various scenarios, including different penetration levels. The results show the distribution transformer loss-of-life function, as a function of the rooftop PV penetration level, is monotonically decreasing function which saturates after a certain penetration level. The best life improvements occur with transformers that are highly loaded and the presence of a significant PV installation may support the deferral of transformer upgrades.

Kotimaisen tuorekalan tuoreuden arviointi laatuindeksimenetelmällä QIM®

Kalateollisuus ja kalakauppa tarvitsisivat menetelmän, jolla kalan säilyvyyttä voitaisiin arvioida reaaliaikaisesti ja luotettavasti. Laatuindeksimenetelmä QIM® (engl. Quality Index Method) on käytössä jo useassa Euroopan maassa useille eri kalalajeille. QIM® pyrkii lajikohtaisesti ennustamaan aistinvaraisten ominaisuuksien muutoksien perusteella jäljellä olevaa säilyvyysaikaa. Työn tavoitteena oli luoda QIM® meressä kasvatetulle siialle. Tämä on ensimmäinen suomalaiselle kalalle tehtävä QIM®, ja tavoitteena on saada meressä kasvatetun siian QIM® myös viralliseen QIM®-käsikirjaan. Tutkimus tehtiin Elintarviketurvallisuusvirasto Eviralle. Tutkittavat kalat Evira osti Kalatukku E. Eriksson Oy:ltä. QIM®-tuloksen tueksi tutkittiin yhden erän pH ja indikoitiin pilaantuminen myös mikrobiologisesti. Luotiin myös kasvatetun siian profiili (arvioijia 13). Itse tutkimusosassa kaksi profiiliraatia (n = 9) ja QIM®-raati (n = 5) arvioivat raa’an ja kypsän kalan. Tulos varmistettiin myös aistinvaraisella kalan laadunarviointimenetelmällä (Evira 8001). QIM®-raati loi QIM®-luonnoksen ja luonnoksen toimivuutta testattiin. Kiinteänä osana työn toteutusta oli myös eri vaiheiden muutosten valokuvaus. Tämän tutkimuksen mukaan luotu QIM®-luonnos on toimiva pohja validoitaessaa QIM®-menetelmää siialle. Voidaan myös todeta, että QIM® soveltuu meressä kasvatetulle siialle. Kypsän kalan aistinvaraisella laadunarviointimenetelmällä (Evira 8001) analysoitiin säilytysajankohta, jolloin kypsästä kalasta voitiin todeta kalan kauppakelvottomuus – tätä pidettiin ajanhetkenä, jolloin raa’an kalan tutkiminen voitiin lopettaa. Tutkimuksessa käytetty mikrobiologinen menetelmä ”Mikrobien lukumäärän määrittäminen” (Evira 3420/1) korreloi QIM®-tuloksen kanssa; kalanäyte oli tässä tutkimuksessa niin mikrobiologisesti arvioituna kuin laatuindeksinkin mukaan käyttökelvotonta viidentenätoista päivänä. Tutkittujen kalojen pH-arvoja ei voitu verrata laatuindeksiin, sillä tässä tutkimuksessa mitattujen pH-arvojen tuloksista ei voitu päätellä pilaantumisen etenemistä. Kun QIM® meressä kasvatetulle siialle on validoitu (Evira), valmista meressä kasvatetun siian QI-menetelmää voidaan hyödyntää jatkossa Suomen kalateollisuudessa ja -markkinoilla. Olisi hyvä, jos QIM® luotaisiin myös muille Suomen yleisimmille kauppakaloille, jotta pakkauksiin merkityt viimeiset käyttöpäivät perustuisivat yhteen yhteiseen menetelmään ja näin viimeisellä käyttöpäivällä olisi tieteellinen pohja.

Aircraft Composite Structure Preventive Maintenance

In this paper, a methodology to reduce composite structure maintenance operational cost using SHM systems is adressed. Based on SHM real-time data, in-service structure lifetime prognostic and remaining useful lifetime (RUL) can be performed. Maintenance timetable can be therefore predicted by optimizing inspection times. A probabilistic ap-proach is combined with phenomenological fatigue damage models for composite mate-rials to perform maintenance cost-effectiveness of composite structure. A Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the probability of failure of composite structures and com-pute the average number of composite structure components to be replaced over the component lifetime. The replacement frequency of a given structure component over the aircraft lifetime is assessed. A first application of aeronautical composite structure maintenance is considered. Two composite models to predict the fatigue life and several laminates have been used. Our study shows that maintenance cost-effectiveness depends on material and fatigue loading applied.

Perceived positive and negative consequences after surviving cancer and their relation to quality of life

Surviving childhood cancer has multiple implications on both physical and psychological domains of the individual. However, its study and possible effects on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes of adolescent survivors has been understudied. The objective of this study was twofold; to assess positive and negative cancer-related consequences (psychosocial and physical) in a sample of adolescent cancer survivors and to explore their relationship with HRQoL outcomes. Forty-one participants answered two questions about positive and negative consequences in the aftermath of cancer and filled in the KIDSCREEN-52 self-reported version. Data were analysed using mixed methods approach. 87.8% of the sample identified positive consequences and 63.4% negative consequences in survivorship. Four positive categories and five negative categories with regard to cancer-related consequences were found. Changed perspectives in life narratives seem to be the positive consequence more related to HRQoL (physical well-being, mood & emotions, autonomy, social support & peers), followed by useful life experience (physical well-being, autonomy, social support & peers). Psychological impact was the most referred negative consequence with a significant detrimental effect on social support and peers HRQoL dimension. Even if the majority of survivors reported benefit finding in the aftermath of cancer, concomitant positive and negative consequences have been found. However, findings only reveal a significant relationship between positive narratives and HRQoL, and negative consequences do not seem to have a significant influence on overall HRQoL in survivorship.

Auditorium: una tipología del siglo XX

Se recoge en esta tesis doctoral la definición y clasificación de los edificios cuya finalidad es proporcionar espacios para escuchar y producir música. Se centra en aquellos construidos a lo largo del siglo XX, en el área geográfica y cultural que forman Europa occidental y Estados Unidos. Se analizan edificios construidos en el pasado, en una serie que se origina a mediados del siglo XIX y que se culmina terciado el propio siglo XX. Son edificios que contienen espacios pensados para músicas que, sin embargo, en su mayoría fueron creadas en un periodo anterior, desde mediados del siglo XVIII hasta las primeras décadas del siglo pasado. Un auditorium es un edificio cuya idea conlleva la compleja herencia de los múltiples lugares, abiertos y cerrados, que han alojado la música a lo largo del tiempo. Es un edificio que es útil a la sociedad y que ocupa un lugar significativo dentro de la ciudad, y es consecuencia del campo de fuerzas que constituyen los avances técnicos, el progreso de las sociedades urbanas y la evolución del arte, al compartir estrechamente, música y arquitectura, el interés por hallar la expresión de una nueva relación con la naturaleza. Se parte de la hipótesis de que el auditorium puede constituir un tipo arquitectónico con entidad suficiente para generar una tipología. Entendida ésta como una herramienta que dota de conocimientos útiles a quien va a proyectar un edificio para la música y también que permita abrir el campo de pensamiento sobre el espacio musical, sin necesidad de recurrir a modelos previos, aunque se hayan manifestado útiles y precisos. Se comienza con una aproximación a una definición del término «auditorium » y se analizan a qué funciones responde y en qué es distinto de otros edificios, a través de determinar las características formales propias. Para ello se articula la tesis en varios bloques de análisis. I Elementos para una tipología Se indaga en los atributos que determinan la naturaleza de los auditorios para definir cómo son estos edificios y qué características y condiciones tienen, no sólo las salas sino también los edificios que las contienen, buscando el origen de los espacios musicales y su relación con las personas que allí se han reunido para celebrar, a través de la música, acontecimientos colectivos. Relación que ha comportado desplazamientos por los distintos espacios que ha compartido, supeditada a otras actividades, hasta que finalmente, la música ha reclamado espacios propios. Pero también se establece otra relación física entre las distintas posiciones que ocupan en el espacio cuantos intervienen en la celebración del hecho musical, músicos y público. De otra parte se analiza cómo son sus espacios interiores, salas y vestíbulos, y los volúmenes y formas de los edificios en relación con la ciudad. Su conexión con la idea del paisaje abierto y con el carácter originario de la cueva. II Cinco tiempos Los edificios sobre los que se van explorar estas capacidades son en muchos casos arquitecturas divulgadas y conocidas. Sin embargo no todas han tenido desde su aparición el mismo grado de aprecio ni reconocimiento, y sólo el paso del tiempo ha confirmado su excelencia. El estudio se estructura en los periodos marcados por los acontecimientos bélicos y las grandes crisis que sacudieron Europa y Norte América desde comienzos del siglo XX. La identificación de los elementos significativos de la tipología se hace a través del análisis de distintos tiempos que agrupan casos heterogéneos, tiempos entendidos unas veces como la relación entre edificios coetáneos y otra como proyectos pensados por un mismo arquitecto y se detiene, entre otros, en cuatro excepcionales edificios que condensan la experiencia de varias décadas y demuestran su plenitud arquitectónica, por haber evolucionado de modelos precedentes o por su novedosas aportaciones. El Royal Festival Hall (1951), el Kresge Auditorium (1954), el Kulttuuritalo (1958) y la Philharmonie de Berlín (1963), sirven de base para una clasificación del auditorium. III Cronología gráfica Este apartado es fundamentalmente gráfico y consta un inventario de más de 100 archivos correspondientes a otros tantos auditorios y sus salas, en orden cronológico. Cada archivo cuenta con una imagen del exterior del edificio y otra del interior de la sala. Se han incorporado en cada uno de los archivos, dos dibujos a la misma escala. El primero muestra la planta de la sala con tres parámetros: la ocupación del público en referencia al lugar que ocupa la orquesta, la relación de tamaño entre la sala y las de los cuatro auditorios de referencia y la distancia al foco de sonido, la orquesta, mediante una escala en metros. Estos tres parámetros están superpuestos al que he considerado espacio audible, un rectángulo de 60 por 90 metros, en el que el foco está desplazado, por considerar que el sonido de una orquesta tiene una componente directional y que en esas dimensiones la energía sonora no decae. En el friso bajo el dibujo, aparecen cuatro iconos que informan de la relación formal de la sala con la del auditorium. Puede ser una sala dentro de un edificio sin correspondencia formal, un edificio en el que se manifiesta exteriormente el volumen de la sala, un edificio que tiene la forma de la sala y resuelve el resto del programa funcional sin manifestarlo exteriormente o, finalmente un edificio complejo cuya forma absorbe dos o más salas de música. El segundo dibujo es la sección longitudinal de la sala, recortada sobre un fondo negro para destacar su forma y proporción, todas están a la misma escala y en la misma dirección respecto del escenario para facilitar su lectura y comparación. En el parte inferior de la sección, aparecen cuatro esquemas de la forma y distribución en planta sobre el que destaca la de cada caso de estudio. La forma del techo de las salas de música de los auditorios, expresada a través de la sección longitudinal, es uno de los elementos que caracteriza el espacio musical. El perímetro de la sección, determina su superficie y por tanto, el volumen total interior. Es una herramienta técnica que permite dirigir el sonido reflejado en él, hasta cualquier lugar del interior de la sala, garantizando una distribución homogénea y evitando concentraciones perjudiciales o «sombras acústicas», lugares donde no llegan las primeras reflexiones. IV Geometría de las salas El análisis efectuado permite la elaboración de paralelos de tres de los elementos fundamentales de la tipología de las salas de los auditorium y que definen el espacio musical. El perímetro de la sección y su superficie que establecen el volumen total interior, que es un factor determinante en la reverberación de una sala. La forma y superficie del techo, que interviene directamente en el cálculo de la absorción del sonido, en función de la cualidad reflejante o absorbente del material con el que está construido, y por otra parte en la distribución del sonido en el espacio. Y por último, la forma del suelo de las salas también expresada a través de la sección longitudinal, es otro de los elementos que caracteriza el espacio musical. El modelado del suelo permite mediante distintas pendientes garantizar la correcta visión del escenario y por tanto permite también una buena audición, puesto que la llegada directa del sonido está asegurada. La otra limitación dimensional es el ancho de la grada. Cuando se ha buscado incrementar al máximo la capacidad de una sala, se han establecido graderíos en balcones en voladizo para no penalizar la distancia al escenario, de manera que algunas partes del graderío quedan cubiertas, en detrimento de su calidad acústica al privarlas de las primeras reflexiones que proceden del techo. V Auditórium y ciudad El auditorium es un edificio singular que establece con la ciudad una relación particular y que contiene en su interior una o varias salas especiales destinadas a oír y ejecutar música, a las que se accede a través de otros espacios de carácter social. Han ido evolucionando y modificándose de manera ininterrumpida, dando lugar a edificios de diversa complejidad en su programa y a salas cada vez mas especificas para cumplir mejor su cometido, perfeccionando su sonido y buscando la más elevada musicalidad. Estos edificios disponen de otros ámbitos de relación, son los espacios interiores, vestíbulos y escaleras, generalmente generosos en superficie y espacialidad, previos al espacio musical, corazón del auditorium donde suena la música en condiciones acústicas precisas. También el lugar donde se construyen los auditoriums en las ciudades tiene un especial significado, porque generalmente han buscado interponer espacios abiertos o ajardinados que suavicen el contacto directo con la ciudad y que implican, por otra parte, una preparación de las personas que asisten para escuchar los conciertos. Con el paso del tiempo, la aceptación generalizada de formas afianzadas en la ciudad, será uno de los vehículos que permita contaminar a otros tipos de edificios y alcanzar una libertad formal renovadora de los paisajes urbanos. Conclusiones La disolución del espacio musical convencional pregonado por el pabellón Philips del año 1958, no ha impedido que hoy siga vivo para el arquitecto el reto del proyecto y construcción del auditorium. Hoy conviven experiencias musicales totales; imagen, luz y movimiento, ocupando todo tipo de espacios públicos, cerrados o al aire libre, con la voluntad de conseguir espacios capaces de crear la intimidad y las precisas condiciones ambientales que hagan posible la recreación de las músicas del pasado en una especie de emocionante museo sonoro vivo. Como edificios urbanos, los auditoriums han conseguido un lugar destacado en la iconografía urbana después de un largo camino hasta conseguir el reconocimiento social. Se puede, así, establecer que estos edificios han introducido en la ciudad una nueva manera de expresarse la arquitectura. Que lo inesperado de sus formas y volúmenes en el espacio urbano, o la sorpresa de sus interiores altamente técnicos, justificados para satisfacer las nuevas necesidades impuestas por una audiencia cada vez más y más experta, obtienen la aceptación urbana por su utilidad social y por su capacidad de establecer una relación distinta entre las personas, la ciudad y la naturaleza. Coda Finalmente, el epílogo habla de la metamorfosis del espacio musical y de la convivencia de distintos espacios musicales en la actualidad. Desde la creación de las primeras y sencillas salas de música hasta las grandes salas filarmónicas que se construyen en las últimas décadas, la arquitectura ha proporcionado lugares adecuados para contener y disfrutar la música, espacios que se han modificado según cambiaban las formas musicales. Sin embargo el sonido parece mostrarse reticente a ser encerrado en el espacio y busca aliarse con el tiempo para conseguir un desplazamiento permanente. Seguramente es en el pabellón Philips de Bruselas en 1958 donde se presenta el último intento de la arquitectura de contener la música, que impulsada por tecnologías absolutamente nuevas, se mueve como dardos que atraviesan el espacio en todos los lugares y en todas las direcciones. Desde aquellas décadas centrales del pasado siglo, y superando los mas optimistas intentos de distribuir masivamente la música a través de incipientes tecnologías, se puede afirmar que vivimos en una inmersión sonora universal. Anexos Incluyen, una colección de mapas de la geografía de los auditorios europeos y norte-americanos, referenciados a los periodos de su construcción, y una relación de los auditorios estudiados con referencias bibliográficas. ABSTRACT This doctoral thesis does not only look at the ways in which architecture and music relate with one another; it also seeks to be an exact, scientific study of auditoriums, a building type that first appeared in the 20th century as a place in which to produce and listen to music. It studies concert halls, raised in Europe and the United Stated in the 20th century, for the purpose of recreating older music, that were the result of the evolution of various ancient building types. Auditoriums have a complex heritage of architecture of all times, openair and covered alike, and occupy important spots in cities. They incorporate the technical innovations of their times, and are reflections not only of the music played within them, but also of the societies that built them. Music and architecture share an interest in connecting with nature. Auditorium, a 20th-century Typology tries to define this building typology, and with that, be a practical tool in designing and constructing spaces for music, besides exploring the relationship between the two disciplines, architecture and music, and establishing the foundations for an entire school of thought. It is organized in five chapters, each focusing on a particular aspect of auditoriums, all towards defining a possible typology: I Typology elements. A study of the origin of auditoriums, and of how the different parts of these buildings —the actual concert hall, the foyer, the open spaces— relate with the city and with nature, which is ever present in music and in the origin of auditoriums. II Five sequences. A chronological journey through the 20th century, in periods marked by the two world wars and the consequent crises, with case studies of four exceptional buildings: the Royal Festival Hall (1951), the Kresge Auditorium (1954), the Kulttuuritalo (1958), and the Berlin Philharmonie (1963). III Graphic chronology. A methodical sequence looking at a hundred auditoriums, with each entry presenting images of the concert hall and the building as a whole, and two drawings on the same scale. Each concert hall floor plan shows how the orchestra relates with the audience, and it is compared to the floor plans of the four case-study examples named above. We also see how the hall is set into the building. The second drawing is the longitudinal section of the hall. Ceiling shape much determines the character of concert hall spaces, while technical data like air volume and the amount of absorbent and reflecting materials used have a direct bearing on the reflection of sound and on the overall musical quality of the auditorium. IV Geometry of concert halls. Graphic analysis of the key elements of a music space: the ceiling and the floor plan. The section is a necessary tool for determining the reverberation time of a concert hall, and is closely linked to the shape of the floor plan. In concert halls, there is a strong connection between the ceiling, the walls, and the floor, as there is between different musical instruments. It also includes maps showing where these European and American buildings are located geographically as well as in time. V The auditorium in the city. This chapter presents a series of maps showing the location of auditoriums in the city. They are often located in squares and gardens, open public spaces that serve to emotionally prepare the listener for an imminent musical experience. Time has shown that concert halls have changed the urban landscape and city life. Conclusions As a building type, auditoriums —though «dissolved» by the Philips Pavilion in 1958— remain valid spaces for listening to music. As intimate and unique spaces for social gathering and musical creation, they have done their part in transforming cities. Acoustics play a key role in these technical interiors, but just as important is the rapport that is struck between the musicians and the audience, and between musical works of the past, present, and future. Auditoriums are urban buildings that have been very successful throughout history. They have enriched our cities with surprising shapes and volumes, introduced new interiors in architecture, and struck new relationships between people, the city, and nature. As such, they are necessary. Coda Finally, the epilogue presents the evolution of the music space, from the early simple music halls to the highly complex philharmonic halls of recent years. Architecture has produced spaces for the enjoyment of music that have been modified for new musical creations, while remaining useful for the historical repertoire. Sound, and thus music, has as complex a relationship with space as it does with time. The coda of this thesis is the Philips Pavilion of 1958, perhaps the last attempt to propose a new kind of architecture for music with the latest technology. Annexes The thesis includes a collection of site maps of European and American auditoriums, complete with completion dates and descriptions.

Dynamic Behavior and Fatigue Life of Highway Bridges Due to Doubling Heavy Vehicles

An increase in the demand for the freight shipping in the United States has been predicted for the near future and Longer Combination Vehicles (LCVs), which can carry more loads in each trip, seem like a good solution for the problem. Currently, utilizing LCVs is not permitted in most states of the US and little research has been conducted on the effects of these heavy vehicles on the roads and bridges. In this research, efforts are made to study these effects by comparing the dynamic and fatigue effects of LCVs with more common trucks. Ten Steel and prestressed concrete bridges with span lengths ranging from 30’ to 140’ are designed and modeled using the grid system in MATLAB. Additionally, three more real bridges including two single span simply supported steel bridges and a three span continuous steel bridge are modeled using the same MATLAB code. The equations of motion of three LCVs as well as eight other trucks are derived and these vehicles are subjected to different road surface conditions and bumps on the roads and the designed and real bridges. By forming the bridge equations of motion using the mass, stiffness and damping matrices and considering the interaction between the truck and the bridge, the differential equations are solved using the ODE solver in MATLAB and the results of the forces in tires as well as the deflections and moments in the bridge members are obtained. The results of this study show that for most of the bridges, LCVs result in the smallest values of Dynamic Amplification Factor (DAF) whereas the Single Unit Trucks cause the highest values of DAF when traveling on the bridges. Also in most cases, the values of DAF are observed to be smaller than the 33% threshold suggested by the design code. Additionally, fatigue analysis of the bridges in this study confirms that by replacing the current truck traffic with higher capacity LCVs, in most cases, the remaining fatigue life of the bridge is only slightly decreased which means that taking advantage of these larger vehicles can be a viable option for decision makers.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Towards a Rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

One of the key issues facing public asset owners is the decision of refurbishing aged built assets. This decision requires an assessment of the “remaining service life” of the key components in a building. The remaining service life is significantly dependent upon the existing condition of the asset and future degradation patterns considering durability and functional obsolescence. Recently developed methods on Residual Service Life modelling, require sophisticated data that are not readily available. Most of the data available are in the form of reports prior to undertaking major repairs or in the form of sessional audit reports. Valuable information from these available sources can serve as bench marks for estimating the reference service life. The authors have acquired similar informations from a public asset building in Melbourne. Using these informations, the residual service life of a case study building façade has been estimated in this paper based on state-of-the-art approaches. These estimations have been evaluated against expert opinion. Though the results are encouraging it is clear that the state-of-the-art methodologies can only provide meaningful estimates provided the level and quality of data are available. This investigation resulted in the development of a new framework for maintenance that integrates the condition assessment procedures and factors influencing residual service life

A novel profluorescent dinitroxide for imaging polypropylene degradation

Free-radical processes underpin the thermo-oxidative degradation of polyolefins. Thus, to extend the lifetime of these polymers, stabilizers are generally added during processing to scavenge the free radicals formed as the polymer degrades. Nitroxide radical precursors, such as hindered amine stabilizers (HAS),1,2 are common polypropylene additives as the nitroxide moiety is a potent scavenger of polymer alkyl radicals (R¥). Oxidation of HAS by radicals formed during polypropylene degradation yields nitroxide radicals (RRNO¥), which rapidly trap the polymer degradation species to produce alkoxyamines, thus retarding oxidative polymer degradation. This increase in polymer stability is demonstrated by a lengthening of the “induction period” of the polymer (the time prior to a sharp rise in the oxidation of the polymer). Instrumental techniques such as chemiluminescence or infrared spectroscopy are somewhat limited in detecting changes in the polymer during the initial stages of degradation. Therefore, other methods for observing polymer degradation have been sought as the useful life of a polymer does not extend far beyond its “induction period”

A framework for strategic infrastructure asset management

The concept of asset management is not a new but an evolving idea that has been attracting attention of many organisations operating and/or owning some kind of infrastructure assets. The term asset management have been used widely with fundamental differences in interpretation and usage. Regardless of the context of the usage of the term, asset management implies the process of optimising return by scrutinising performance and making key strategic decisions throughout all phases of an assets lifecycle (Sarfi and Tao, 2004). Hence, asset management is a philosophy and discipline through which organisations are enabled to more effectively deploy their resources to provide higher levels of customer service and reliability while balancing financial objectives. In Australia, asset management made its way into the public works in 1993 when the Australian Accounting Standard Board issued the Australian Accounting Standard 27 – AAS27. Standard AAS27 required government agencies to capitalise and depreciate assets rather than expense them against earnings. This development has indirectly forced organisations managing infrastructure assets to consider the useful life and cost effectiveness of asset investments. The Australian State Treasuries and the Australian National Audit Office was the first organisation to formalise the concepts and principles of asset management in Australia in which they defined asset management as “ a systematic, structured process covering the whole life of an asset”(Australian National Audit Office, 1996). This initiative led other Government bodies and industry sectors to develop, refine and apply the concept of asset management in the management of their respective infrastructure assets. Hence, it can be argued that the concept of asset management has emerged as a separate and recognised field of management during the late 1990s. In comparison to other disciplines such as construction, facilities, maintenance, project management, economics, finance, to name a few, asset management is a relatively new discipline and is clearly a contemporary topic. The primary contributors to the literature in asset management are largely government organisations and industry practitioners. These contributions take the form of guidelines and reports on the best practice of asset management. More recently, some of these best practices have been made to become a standard such as the PAS 55 (IAM, 2004, IAM, 2008b) in UK. As such, current literature in this field tends to lack well-grounded theories. To-date, while receiving relatively more interest and attention from empirical researchers, the advancement of this field, particularly in terms of the volume of academic and theoretical development is at best moderate. A plausible reason for the lack of advancement is that many researchers and practitioners are still unaware of, or unimpressed by, the contribution that asset management can make to the performance of infrastructure asset. This paper seeks to explore the practices of organisations that manage infrastructure assets to develop a framework of strategic infrastructure asset management processes. It will begin by examining the development of asset management. This is followed by the discussion on the method to be adopted for this paper. Next, is the discussion of the result form case studies. It first describes the goals of infrastructure asset management and how they can support the broader business goals. Following this, a set of core processes that can support the achievement of business goals are provided. These core processes are synthesised based on the practices of asset managers in the case study organisations.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

A cyclostationary multi-domain analysis of fluid instability in Kaplan turbines

Hydraulic instabilities represent a critical problem for Francis and Kaplan turbines, reducing their useful life due to increase of fatigue on the components and cavitation phenomena. Whereas an exhaustive list of publications on computational fluid-dynamic models of hydraulic instability is available, the possibility of applying diagnostic techniques based on vibration measurements has not been investigated sufficiently, also because the appropriate sensors seldom equip hydro turbine units. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap and to exploit fully, for this purpose, the potentiality of combining cyclostationary analysis tools, able to describe complex dynamics such as those of fluid-structure interactions, with order tracking procedures, allowing domain transformations and consequently the separation of synchronous and non-synchronous components. This paper will focus on experimental data obtained on a full-scale Kaplan turbine unit, operating in a real power plant, tackling the issues of adapting such diagnostic tools for the analysis of hydraulic instabilities and proposing techniques and methodologies for a highly automated condition monitoring system. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Studies of cryotreatment on the performance of integral diaphragm pressure transducers for space application

The integral diaphragm pressure transducers machined out of precipitation hardened martensite stainless steel (APX4) are widely used for propellant pressure measurements in space applications. These transducers are expected to exhibit dimensional stability and linearity for their entire useful life. These vital factors are very critical for the reliable performance and dependability of the pressure transducers. However, these transducers invariably develop internal stresses during various stages of machining. These stresses have an adverse effect on the performance of the transducers causing deviation from linearity. In order to eliminate these possibilities, it was planned to cryotreat the machined transducers to improve both the long-term linearity and dimensional stability. To study these effects, an experimental cryotreatment unit was designed and developed based on the concept of indirect cooling using the concept of cold nitrogen gas forced closed loop convection currents. The system has the capability of cryotreating large number of samples for varied rates of cooling, soaking and warm-up. After obtaining the initial levels of residual stress and retained austenite using X-ray diffraction techniques, the pressure transducers were cryotreated at 98 K for 36 h. Immediately after cryotreatment, the transducers were tempered at 510 degrees C for 3 h in vacuum furnace. Results after cryo treatment clearly indicated significant reduction in residual stress levels and conversion of retained austenite to martensite. These changes have brought in improvements in long term zero drift and dimensional stability. The cryotreated pressure transducers have been incorporated for actual space applications. (c) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Simulation of potential and electric field across faulty ceramic disc insulator string

Ceramic/Porcelain insulators are widely used in power transmission lines to provide mechanical support for High voltage conductors in addition to withstand electrical stresses. As a result of lightning, switching or temporary over voltages that could initiate flashover under worst weather conditions, and to operate within interference limits. Given that the useful life in service of the individual insulator elements making up the insulator strings is hard to predict, they must be verified periodically to ensure that adequate line reliability is maintained at all times. Over the years utilities have adopted few methods to detect defective discs in a string, subsequently replacement of the faulty discs are being carried out for smooth operation. But, if the insulator is found to be defective in a string at some location that may not create any changes in the field configuration, there is no need to replace to avoid manpower and cost of replacement. Due to deficiency of electric field data for the existing string configuration, utilities are forced to replace the discs which may not be essentially required. Hence, effort is made in the present work to simulate the potential and electric field along the normal and with faults induced discs in a string up to 765 kV system voltages using Surface Charge Simulation Method (SCSM). A comparison is made between simulated results, experimental and field data and it was found that the computed results are quite acceptable and useful.