Reliability analysis of a timber truss system subjected to decay

Assessing the safety of existing timber structures is of paramount importance for taking reliable decisions on repair actions and their extent. The results obtained through semi-probabilistic methods are unrealistic, as the partial safety factors present in codes are calibrated considering the uncertainty present in new structures. In order to overcome these limitations, and also to include the effects of decay in the safety analysis, probabilistic methods, based on Monte-Carlo simulation are applied here to assess the safety of existing timber structures. In particular, the impact of decay on structural safety is analyzed and discussed, using a simple structural model, similar to that used for current semi-probabilistic analysis.

An application of reliability-based robustness assessment of steel moment resisting frame structures under post-mainshock cascading events

The paper presented herein proposes a reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robustness considering the occurrence of a major earthquake (mainshock) and subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks that are triggered by the mainshock. These events can significantly increase the probability of failure of buildings, especially for structures that are damaged during the mainshock. The application of the proposed framework is exemplified through three numerical case studies. The case studies correspond to three SAC steel moment frame buildings of 3-, 9-, and 20- stories, which were designed to pre-Northridge codes and standards. Twodimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are developed using the Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation framework (OpenSees), using a finite-length plastic hinge beam model and a bilinear constitutive law with deterioration, and are subjected to multiple mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. For the three buildings analyzed herein, it is shown that the structural reliability under a single seismic event can be significantly different from that under a sequence of seismic events. The reliability-based robustness indicator used shows that the structural robustness is influenced by the extent by which a structure can distribute damage.

A spectrum-driven damage Identification technique : application and validation through the numerical simulation of the Z24 Bridge

The present paper focuses on a damage identification method based on the use of the second order spectral properties of the nodal response processes. The explicit dependence on the frequency content of the outputs power spectral densities makes them suitable for damage detection and localization. The well-known case study of the Z24 Bridge in Switzerland is chosen to apply and further investigate this technique with the aim of validating its reliability. Numerical simulations of the dynamic response of the structure subjected to different types of excitation are carried out to assess the variability of the spectrum-driven method with respect to both type and position of the excitation sources. The simulated data obtained from random vibrations, impulse, ramp and shaking forces, allowed to build the power spectrum matrix from which the main eigenparameters of reference and damage scenarios are extracted. Afterwards, complex eigenvectors and real eigenvalues are properly weighed and combined and a damage index based on the difference between spectral modes is computed to pinpoint the damage. Finally, a group of vibration-based damage identification methods are selected from the literature to compare the results obtained and to evaluate the performance of the spectral index.

Monte Carlo simulation of kilovolt electron transport in solids

A Monte Carlo procedure to simulate the penetration and energy loss of low¿energy electron beams through solids is presented. Elastic collisions are described by using the method of partial waves for the screened Coulomb field of the nucleus. The atomic charge density is approximated by an analytical expression with parameters determined from the Dirac¿Hartree¿Fock¿Slater self¿consistent density obtained under Wigner¿Seitz boundary conditions in order to account for solid¿state effects; exchange effects are also accounted for by an energy¿dependent local correction. Elastic differential cross sections are then easily computed by combining the WKB and Born approximations to evaluate the phase shifts. Inelastic collisions are treated on the basis of a generalized oscillator strength model which gives inelastic mean free paths and stopping powers in good agreement with experimental data. This scattering model is accurate in the energy range from a few hundred eV up to about 50 keV. The reliability of the simulation method is analyzed by comparing simulation results and experimental data from backscattering and transmission measurements.

Flexible Multibody Simulation Approach in the Dynamic Analysis of Bone Strains Activity

The objective of this study is to show that bone strains due to dynamic mechanical loading during physical activity can be analysed using the flexible multibody simulation approach. Strains within the bone tissue play a major role in bone (re)modeling. Based on previous studies, it has been shown that dynamic loading seems to be more important for bone (re)modeling than static loading. The finite element method has been used previously to assess bone strains. However, the finite element method may be limited to static analysis of bone strains due to the expensive computation required for dynamic analysis, especially for a biomechanical system consisting of several bodies. Further, in vivo implementation of strain gauges on the surfaces of bone has been used previously in order to quantify the mechanical loading environment of the skeleton. However, in vivo strain measurement requires invasive methodology, which is challenging and limited to certain regions of superficial bones only, such as the anterior surface of the tibia. In this study, an alternative numerical approach to analyzing in vivo strains, based on the flexible multibody simulation approach, is proposed. In order to investigate the reliability of the proposed approach, three 3-dimensional musculoskeletal models where the right tibia is assumed to be flexible, are used as demonstration examples. The models are employed in a forward dynamics simulation in order to predict the tibial strains during walking on a level exercise. The flexible tibial model is developed using the actual geometry of the subject’s tibia, which is obtained from 3 dimensional reconstruction of Magnetic Resonance Images. Inverse dynamics simulation based on motion capture data obtained from walking at a constant velocity is used to calculate the desired contraction trajectory for each muscle. In the forward dynamics simulation, a proportional derivative servo controller is used to calculate each muscle force required to reproduce the motion, based on the desired muscle contraction trajectory obtained from the inverse dynamics simulation. Experimental measurements are used to verify the models and check the accuracy of the models in replicating the realistic mechanical loading environment measured from the walking test. The predicted strain results by the models show consistency with literature-based in vivo strain measurements. In conclusion, the non-invasive flexible multibody simulation approach may be used as a surrogate for experimental bone strain measurement, and thus be of use in detailed strain estimation of bones in different applications. Consequently, the information obtained from the present approach might be useful in clinical applications, including optimizing implant design and devising exercises to prevent bone fragility, accelerate fracture healing and reduce osteoporotic bone loss.

Monte Carlo simulation of x-ray emission by kilovolt electron bombardment

A physical model for the simulation of x-ray emission spectra from samples irradiated with kilovolt electron beams is proposed. Inner shell ionization by electron impact is described by means of total cross sections evaluated from an optical-data model. A double differential cross section is proposed for bremsstrahlung emission, which reproduces the radiative stopping powers derived from the partial wave calculations of Kissel, Quarles and Pratt [At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 28, 381 (1983)]. These ionization and radiative cross sections have been introduced into a general-purpose Monte Carlo code, which performs simulation of coupled electron and photon transport for arbitrary materials. To improve the efficiency of the simulation, interaction forcing, a variance reduction technique, has been applied for both ionizing collisions and radiative events. The reliability of simulated x-ray spectra is analyzed by comparing simulation results with electron probe measurements.

Simulation methods in the modelling of bioaffinity assays

Computational model-based simulation methods were developed for the modelling of bioaffinity assays. Bioaffinity-based methods are widely used to quantify a biological substance in biological research, development and in routine clinical in vitro diagnostics. Bioaffinity assays are based on the high affinity and structural specificity between the binding biomolecules. The simulation methods developed are based on the mechanistic assay model, which relies on the chemical reaction kinetics and describes the forming of a bound component as a function of time from the initial binding interaction. The simulation methods were focused on studying the behaviour and the reliability of bioaffinity assay and the possibilities the modelling methods of binding reaction kinetics provide, such as predicting assay results even before the binding reaction has reached equilibrium. For example, a rapid quantitative result from a clinical bioaffinity assay sample can be very significant, e.g. even the smallest elevation of a heart muscle marker reveals a cardiac injury. The simulation methods were used to identify critical error factors in rapid bioaffinity assays. A new kinetic calibration method was developed to calibrate a measurement system by kinetic measurement data utilizing only one standard concentration. A nodebased method was developed to model multi-component binding reactions, which have been a challenge to traditional numerical methods. The node-method was also used to model protein adsorption as an example of nonspecific binding of biomolecules. These methods have been compared with the experimental data from practice and can be utilized in in vitro diagnostics, drug discovery and in medical imaging.

Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects.

A wide range of tests for heteroskedasticity have been proposed in the econometric and statistics literature. Although a few exact homoskedasticity tests are available, the commonly employed procedures are quite generally based on asymptotic approximations which may not provide good size control in finite samples. There has been a number of recent studies that seek to improve the reliability of common heteroskedasticity tests using Edgeworth, Bartlett, jackknife and bootstrap methods. Yet the latter remain approximate. In this paper, we describe a solution to the problem of controlling the size of homoskedasticity tests in linear regression contexts. We study procedures based on the standard test statistics [e.g., the Goldfeld-Quandt, Glejser, Bartlett, Cochran, Hartley, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, White and Szroeter criteria] as well as tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH-type models). We also suggest several extensions of the existing procedures (sup-type of combined test statistics) to allow for unknown breakpoints in the error variance. We exploit the technique of Monte Carlo tests to obtain provably exact p-values, for both the standard and the new tests suggested. We show that the MC test procedure conveniently solves the intractable null distribution problem, in particular those raised by the sup-type and combined test statistics as well as (when relevant) unidentified nuisance parameter problems under the null hypothesis. The method proposed works in exactly the same way with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian disturbance distributions [such as heavy-tailed or stable distributions]. The performance of the procedures is examined by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted focus on : (1) ARCH, GARCH, and ARCH-in-mean alternatives; (2) the case where the variance increases monotonically with : (i) one exogenous variable, and (ii) the mean of the dependent variable; (3) grouped heteroskedasticity; (4) breaks in variance at unknown points. We find that the proposed tests achieve perfect size control and have good power.

Étude des artefacts en tomodensitométrie par simulation Monte Carlo

En radiothérapie, la tomodensitométrie (CT) fournit l’information anatomique du patient utile au calcul de dose durant la planification de traitement. Afin de considérer la composition hétérogène des tissus, des techniques de calcul telles que la méthode Monte Carlo sont nécessaires pour calculer la dose de manière exacte. L’importation des images CT dans un tel calcul exige que chaque voxel exprimé en unité Hounsfield (HU) soit converti en une valeur physique telle que la densité électronique (ED). Cette conversion est habituellement effectuée à l’aide d’une courbe d’étalonnage HU-ED. Une anomalie ou artefact qui apparaît dans une image CT avant l’étalonnage est susceptible d’assigner un mauvais tissu à un voxel. Ces erreurs peuvent causer une perte cruciale de fiabilité du calcul de dose. Ce travail vise à attribuer une valeur exacte aux voxels d’images CT afin d’assurer la fiabilité des calculs de dose durant la planification de traitement en radiothérapie. Pour y parvenir, une étude est réalisée sur les artefacts qui sont reproduits par simulation Monte Carlo. Pour réduire le temps de calcul, les simulations sont parallélisées et transposées sur un superordinateur. Une étude de sensibilité des nombres HU en présence d’artefacts est ensuite réalisée par une analyse statistique des histogrammes. À l’origine de nombreux artefacts, le durcissement de faisceau est étudié davantage. Une revue sur l’état de l’art en matière de correction du durcissement de faisceau est présentée suivi d’une démonstration explicite d’une correction empirique.

Service quality and reliability assessment of mobile communication infrastructure

The service quality of any sector has two major aspects namely technical and functional. Technical quality can be attained by maintaining technical specification as decided by the organization. Functional quality refers to the manner which service is delivered to customer which can be assessed by the customer feed backs. A field survey was conducted based on the management tool SERVQUAL, by designing 28 constructs under 7 dimensions of service quality. Stratified sampling techniques were used to get 336 valid responses and the gap scores of expectations and perceptions are analyzed using statistical techniques to identify the weakest dimension. To assess the technical aspects of availability six months live outage data of base transceiver were collected. The statistical and exploratory techniques were used to model the network performance. The failure patterns have been modeled in competing risk models and probability distribution of service outage and restorations were parameterized. Since the availability of network is a function of the reliability and maintainability of the network elements, any service provider who wishes to keep up their service level agreements on availability should be aware of the variability of these elements and its effects on interactions. The availability variations were studied by designing a discrete time event simulation model with probabilistic input parameters. The probabilistic distribution parameters arrived from live data analysis was used to design experiments to define the availability domain of the network under consideration. The availability domain can be used as a reference for planning and implementing maintenance activities. A new metric is proposed which incorporates a consistency index along with key service parameters that can be used to compare the performance of different service providers. The developed tool can be used for reliability analysis of mobile communication systems and assumes greater significance in the wake of mobile portability facility. It is also possible to have a relative measure of the effectiveness of different service providers.

Modelling and simulation of a photovoltaic fuel cell hybrid system

A stand-alone power system is an autonomous system that supplies electricity to the user load without being connected to the electric grid. This kind of decentralized system is frequently located in remote and inaccessible areas. It is essential for about one third of the world population which are living in developed or isolated regions and have no access to an electricity utility grid. The most people live in remote and rural areas, with low population density, lacking even the basic infrastructure. The utility grid extension to these locations is not a cost effective option and sometimes technically not feasible. The purpose of this thesis is the modelling and simulation of a stand-alone hybrid power system, referred to as “hydrogen Photovoltaic-Fuel Cell (PVFC) hybrid system”. It couples a photovoltaic generator (PV), an alkaline water electrolyser, a storage gas tank, a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), and power conditioning units (PCU) to give different system topologies. The system is intended to be an environmentally friendly solution since it tries maximising the use of a renewable energy source. Electricity is produced by a PV generator to meet the requirements of a user load. Whenever there is enough solar radiation, the user load can be powered totally by the PV electricity. During periods of low solar radiation, auxiliary electricity is required. An alkaline high pressure water electrolyser is powered by the excess energy from the PV generator to produce hydrogen and oxygen at a pressure of maximum 30bar. Gases are stored without compression for short- (hourly or daily) and long- (seasonal) term. A proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell is used to keep the system’s reliability at the same level as for the conventional system while decreasing the environmental impact of the whole system. The PEM fuel cell consumes gases which are produced by an electrolyser to meet the user load demand when the PV generator energy is deficient, so that it works as an auxiliary generator. Power conditioning units are appropriate for the conversion and dispatch the energy between the components of the system. No batteries are used in this system since they represent the weakest when used in PV systems due to their need for sophisticated control and their short lifetime. The model library, ISET Alternative Power Library (ISET-APL), is designed by the Institute of Solar Energy supply Technology (ISET) and used for the simulation of the hybrid system. The physical, analytical and/or empirical equations of each component are programmed and implemented separately in this library for the simulation software program Simplorer by C++ language. The model parameters are derived from manufacturer’s performance data sheets or measurements obtained from literature. The identification and validation of the major hydrogen PVFC hybrid system component models are evaluated according to the measured data of the components, from the manufacturer’s data sheet or from actual system operation. Then, the overall system is simulated, at intervals of one hour each, by using solar radiation as the primary energy input and hydrogen as energy storage for one year operation. A comparison between different topologies, such as DC or AC coupled systems, is carried out on the basis of energy point of view at two locations with different geographical latitudes, in Kassel/Germany (Europe) and in Cairo/Egypt (North Africa). The main conclusion in this work is that the simulation method of the system study under different conditions could successfully be used to give good visualization and comparison between those topologies for the overall performance of the system. The operational performance of the system is not only depending on component efficiency but also on system design and consumption behaviour. The worst case of this system is the low efficiency of the storage subsystem made of the electrolyser, the gas storage tank, and the fuel cell as it is around 25-34% at Cairo and 29-37% at Kassel. Therefore, the research for this system should be concentrated in the subsystem components development especially the fuel cell.

INVENTORY CONTROL SYSTEM : Optimization of production system and reliability

The main idea of this research to solve the problem of inventory management for the paper industry SPM PVT limited. The aim of this research was to find a methodology by which the inventory of raw material could be kept at minimum level by means of buffer stock level.The main objective then lies in finding the minimum level of buffer stock according to daily consumption of raw material, finding the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) reorders point and how much order will be placed in a year to control the shortage of raw material.In this project, we discuss continuous review model (Deterministic EOQ models) that includes the probabilistic demand directly in the formulation. According to the formula, we see the reorder point and the order up to model. The problem was tackled mathematically as well as simulation modeling was used where mathematically tractable solution was not possible.The simulation modeling was done by Awesim software for developing the simulation network. This simulation network has the ability to predict the buffer stock level based on variable consumption of raw material and lead-time. The data collection for this simulation network is taken from the industrial engineering personnel and the departmental studies of the concerned factory. At the end, we find the optimum level of order quantity, reorder point and order days.

Extension And Testing Of A 2D Hydrodynamic Model For Direct Rainfall Runoff Simulation

While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.

The use of simulation for forecasting the number of docks necessary in an expedition department

The simulation is a very powerful tool to develop more efficient systems, hence it is been widely used with the goal of productivity improvement. Its results, if compared with other methods, are not always optimum; however, if the experiment is rightly elaborated, its results will represent the real situation, enabling its use with a good level of reliability. This work used the simulation (through the ProModel (R) software) in order to study, understand, model and improve the expenditure system of an enterprise, with a premise of keeping the production-delivery flow considering quick, controlled and reliable conditions.