Directional Wave Spectrum Estimation Based on Vessel`s 1st-order Motions: Field Results

In this paper, 2 different approaches for estimating the directional wave spectrum based on a vessel`s 1st-order motions are discussed, and their predictions are compared to those provided by a wave buoy. The real-scale data were obtained in an extensive monitoring campaign based on an FPSO unit operating at Campos Basin, Brazil. Data included vessel motions, heading and tank loadings. Wave field information was obtained by means of a heave-pitch-roll buoy installed in the vicinity of the unit. `two of the methods most widely used for this kind of analysis are considered, one based on Bayesian statistical inference, the other consisting of a parametrical representation of the wave spectrum. The performance of both methods is compared, and their sensitivity to input parameters is discussed. This analysis complements a set of previous validations based on numerical and towing-tank results and allows for a preliminary evaluation of reliability when applying the methodology at full scale.

Estimation of glomerular filtration rate in hospitalised patients: are we overestimating renal function?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY AND PRINCIPLES: Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in hospitalised patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is important for drug prescription but it remains a difficult task. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of selected algorithms based on serum creatinine, cystatin C and beta-trace protein to estimate GFR and the potential added advantage of measuring muscle mass by bioimpedance. In a prospective unselected group of patients hospitalised in a general internal medicine ward with CKD, GFR was evaluated using inulin clearance as the gold standard and the algorithms of Cockcroft, MDRD, Larsson (cystatin C), White (beta-trace) and MacDonald (creatinine and muscle mass by bioimpedance). 69 patients were included in the study. Median age (interquartile range) was 80 years (73-83); weight 74.7 kg (67.0-85.6), appendicular lean mass 19.1 kg (14.9-22.3), serum creatinine 126 μmol/l (100-149), cystatin C 1.45 mg/l (1.19-1.90), beta-trace protein 1.17 mg/l (0.99-1.53) and GFR measured by inulin 30.9 ml/min (22.0-43.3). The errors in the estimation of GFR and the area under the ROC curves (95% confidence interval) relative to inulin were respectively: Cockcroft 14.3 ml/min (5.55-23.2) and 0.68 (0.55-0.81), MDRD 16.3 ml/min (6.4-27.5) and 0.76 (0.64-0.87), Larsson 12.8 ml/min (4.50-25.3) and 0.82 (0.72-0.92), White 17.6 ml/min (11.5-31.5) and 0.75 (0.63-0.87), MacDonald 32.2 ml/min (13.9-45.4) and 0.65 (0.52-0.78). Currently used algorithms overestimate GFR in hospitalised patients with CKD. As a consequence eGFR targeted prescriptions of renal-cleared drugs, might expose patients to overdosing. The best results were obtained with the Larsson algorithm. The determination of muscle mass by bioimpedance did not provide significant contributions.

Estimation du débit de filtration glomérulaire par la formule DFG = K x T/Pcr [Estimation of glomerular filtration rate by the formula GFR = K x T/Pc].

BACKGROUND: Creatinine clearance is the most common method used to assess glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In children, GFR can also be estimated without urine collection, using the formula GFR (mL/min x 1.73 m2) = K x height [cm]/Pcr [mumol/L]), where Pcr represents the plasma creatinine concentration. K is usually calculated using creatinine clearance (Ccr) as an index of GFR. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of the formula, using the standard UV/P inulin clearance to calculate K. METHODS: Clearance data obtained in 200 patients (1 month to 23 years) during the years 1988-1994 were used to calculate the factor K as a function of age. Forty-four additional patients were studied prospectively in conditions of either hydropenia or water diuresis in order to evaluate the possible variation of K as a function of urine flow rate. RESULTS: When GFR was estimated by the standard inulin clearance, the calculated values of K was 39 (infants less than 6 months), 44 (1-2 years) and 47 (2-12 years). The correlation between the values of GFR, as estimated by the formula, and the values measured by the standard clearance of inulin was highly significant; the scatter of individual values was however substantial. When K was calculated using Ccr, the formula overestimated Cin at all urine flow rates. When calculated from Ccr, K varied as a function of urine flow rate (K = 50 at urine flow rates of 3.5 and K = 64 at urine flow rates of 8.5 mL/min x 1.73 m2). When calculated from Cin, in the same conditions, K remained constant with a value of 50. CONCLUSIONS: The formula GFR = K x H/Pcr can be used to estimate GFR. The scatter of values precludes however the use of the formula to estimate GFR in pathophysiological studies. The formula should only be used when K is calculated from Cin, and the plasma creatinine concentration is measured in well defined conditions of hydration.

Comparison of estimation methods of soil strength in five soils

In agriculture, the soil strength is used to describe the susceptibility to deformation by pressure caused by agricultural machine. The purpose of this study was to compare different methods for estimating the inherent soil strength and to identify their suitability for the evaluation of load support capacity, compaction susceptibility and root growth. The physical, chemical, mineralogical and intrinsic strength properties of seven soil samples, collected from five sampling pits at different locations in Brazil, were measured. Four clay (CS) and three sandy clay loam (SCL) soils were used. The clay soils were collected on a farm in Santo Ângelo, RS (28 º 16 ' 16 '' S; 54 º 13 ' 11 '' W 290 m); A and B horizons at the Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 47 '' S; 44 º 58 ' 6'' W; 918 m) and on the farm Sygenta, in Uberlandia, MG (18 º 58 ' 37 '' S; 48 º 12 ' 05 '' W 866 m). The sandy clay loam soils were collected in Aracruz, ES (19 º 47 ' 10 '' S; 40 º 16 ' 29 '' W 81 m), and on the farm Xavier, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 24 '' S; 45 º 05 ' 00 '' W; 844 m). Soil strength was estimated based on measurements of: (a) a pneumatic consolidometer, (b) manual pocket (non-rotating) penetrometer; and (c) automatic (rotating) penetrometer. The results of soil strength properties were similar by the three methods. The soil structure had a significant influence on soil strength. Results of measurements with both the manual pocket and the electric penetrometer were similar, emphasizing the influence of soil texture. The data showed that, to enhance the reliability of predictions of preconsolidation pressure by penetrometers, it is better to separate the soils into the different classes, rather than analyze them jointly. It can be concluded that the consolidometer method, although expensive, is the best when evaluations of load support capacity and compaction susceptibility of soil samples are desired.

The efficiency of different estimation methods of hydro-physical limits

The soil water available to crops is defined by specific values of water potential limits. Underlying the estimation of hydro-physical limits, identified as permanent wilting point (PWP) and field capacity (FC), is the selection of a suitable method based on a multi-criteria analysis that is not always clear and defined. In this kind of analysis, the time required for measurements must be taken into consideration as well as other external measurement factors, e.g., the reliability and suitability of the study area, measurement uncertainty, cost, effort and labour invested. In this paper, the efficiency of different methods for determining hydro-physical limits is evaluated by using indices that allow for the calculation of efficiency in terms of effort and cost. The analysis evaluates both direct determination methods (pressure plate - PP and water activity meter - WAM) and indirect estimation methods (pedotransfer functions - PTFs). The PTFs must be validated for the area of interest before use, but the time and cost associated with this validation are not included in the cost of analysis. Compared to the other methods, the combined use of PP and WAM to determine hydro-physical limits differs significantly in time and cost required and quality of information. For direct methods, increasing sample size significantly reduces cost and time. This paper assesses the effectiveness of combining a general analysis based on efficiency indices and more specific analyses based on the different influencing factors, which were considered separately so as not to mask potential benefits or drawbacks that are not evidenced in efficiency estimation.

Reliability of methods used for the risk assessment of mixture of micropollutants in aquatic enviromments : from theoretical concepts to field observations

Ces dernières années, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques des micropolluants organiques pour les espèces de nos lacs et rivières. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, alors que les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange. Or les effets de ces cocktails ne sont pas négligeables. Cette thèse de doctorat s'est ainsi intéressée aux modèles permettant de prédire le risque environnemental de ces cocktails pour le milieu aquatique. Le principal objectif a été d'évaluer le risque écologique des mélanges de substances chimiques mesurées dans le Léman, mais aussi d'apporter un regard critique sur les méthodologies utilisées afin de proposer certaines adaptations pour une meilleure estimation du risque. Dans la première partie de ce travail, le risque des mélanges de pesticides et médicaments pour le Rhône et pour le Léman a été établi en utilisant des approches envisagées notamment dans la législation européenne. Il s'agit d'approches de « screening », c'est-à-dire permettant une évaluation générale du risque des mélanges. Une telle approche permet de mettre en évidence les substances les plus problématiques, c'est-à-dire contribuant le plus à la toxicité du mélange. Dans notre cas, il s'agit essentiellement de 4 pesticides. L'étude met également en évidence que toutes les substances, même en trace infime, contribuent à l'effet du mélange. Cette constatation a des implications en terme de gestion de l'environnement. En effet, ceci implique qu'il faut réduire toutes les sources de polluants, et pas seulement les plus problématiques. Mais l'approche proposée présente également un biais important au niveau conceptuel, ce qui rend son utilisation discutable, en dehors d'un screening, et nécessiterait une adaptation au niveau des facteurs de sécurité employés. Dans une deuxième partie, l'étude s'est portée sur l'utilisation des modèles de mélanges dans le calcul de risque environnemental. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés espèce par espèce, et non pour une évaluation sur l'écosystème en entier. Leur utilisation devrait donc passer par un calcul par espèce, ce qui est rarement fait dû au manque de données écotoxicologiques à disposition. Le but a été donc de comparer, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon une méthode rigoureuse, espèce par espèce, avec celui effectué classiquement où les modèles sont appliqués sur l'ensemble de la communauté sans tenir compte des variations inter-espèces. Les résultats sont dans la majorité des cas similaires, ce qui valide l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. En revanche, ce travail a permis de déterminer certains cas où l'application classique peut conduire à une sous- ou sur-estimation du risque. Enfin, une dernière partie de cette thèse s'est intéressée à l'influence que les cocktails de micropolluants ont pu avoir sur les communautés in situ. Pour ce faire, une approche en deux temps a été adoptée. Tout d'abord la toxicité de quatorze herbicides détectés dans le Léman a été déterminée. Sur la période étudiée, de 2004 à 2009, cette toxicité due aux herbicides a diminué, passant de 4% d'espèces affectées à moins de 1%. Ensuite, la question était de savoir si cette diminution de toxicité avait un impact sur le développement de certaines espèces au sein de la communauté des algues. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation statistique a permis d'isoler d'autres facteurs pouvant avoir une influence sur la flore, comme la température de l'eau ou la présence de phosphates, et ainsi de constater quelles espèces se sont révélées avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps. Fait intéressant, une partie d'entre-elles avait déjà montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. En conclusion, ce travail montre qu'il existe des modèles robustes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques, et qu'ils peuvent être utilisés pour expliquer le rôle des substances dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application. - Depuis plusieurs années, les risques que posent les micropolluants organiques pour le milieu aquatique préoccupent grandement les scientifiques ainsi que notre société. En effet, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques que peuvent avoir ces substances chimiques sur les espèces de nos lacs et rivières, quand elles se retrouvent exposées à des concentrations aiguës ou chroniques. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, c'est à dire considérées séparément. Actuellement, il en est de même dans les procédures de régulation européennes, concernant la partie évaluation du risque pour l'environnement d'une substance. Or, les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange, et les effets de ces "cocktails" ne sont pas négligeables. L'évaluation du risque écologique que pose ces mélanges de substances doit donc être abordé par de la manière la plus appropriée et la plus fiable possible. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux méthodes actuellement envisagées à être intégrées dans les législations européennes pour l'évaluation du risque des mélanges pour le milieu aquatique. Ces méthodes sont basées sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations, avec l'utilisation des valeurs de concentrations des substances estimées sans effet dans le milieu (PNEC), ou à partir des valeurs des concentrations d'effet (CE50) sur certaines espèces d'un niveau trophique avec la prise en compte de facteurs de sécurité. Nous avons appliqué ces méthodes à deux cas spécifiques, le lac Léman et le Rhône situés en Suisse, et discuté les résultats de ces applications. Ces premières étapes d'évaluation ont montré que le risque des mélanges pour ces cas d'étude atteint rapidement une valeur au dessus d'un seuil critique. Cette valeur atteinte est généralement due à deux ou trois substances principales. Les procédures proposées permettent donc d'identifier les substances les plus problématiques pour lesquelles des mesures de gestion, telles que la réduction de leur entrée dans le milieu aquatique, devraient être envisagées. Cependant, nous avons également constaté que le niveau de risque associé à ces mélanges de substances n'est pas négligeable, même sans tenir compte de ces substances principales. En effet, l'accumulation des substances, même en traces infimes, atteint un seuil critique, ce qui devient plus difficile en terme de gestion du risque. En outre, nous avons souligné un manque de fiabilité dans ces procédures, qui peuvent conduire à des résultats contradictoires en terme de risque. Ceci est lié à l'incompatibilité des facteurs de sécurité utilisés dans les différentes méthodes. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous avons étudié la fiabilité de méthodes plus avancées dans la prédiction de l'effet des mélanges pour les communautés évoluant dans le système aquatique. Ces méthodes reposent sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations (CA) ou d'addition des réponses (RA) appliqués sur les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces (SSD) aux substances. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés pour être appliqués espèce par espèce, et non pas sur plusieurs espèces agrégées simultanément dans les courbes SSD. Nous avons ainsi proposé une procédure plus rigoureuse, pour l'évaluation du risque d'un mélange, qui serait d'appliquer d'abord les modèles CA ou RA à chaque espèce séparément, et, dans une deuxième étape, combiner les résultats afin d'établir une courbe SSD du mélange. Malheureusement, cette méthode n'est pas applicable dans la plupart des cas, car elle nécessite trop de données généralement indisponibles. Par conséquent, nous avons comparé, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon cette méthode plus rigoureuse, avec celle effectuée traditionnellement, afin de caractériser la robustesse de cette approche qui consiste à appliquer les modèles de mélange sur les courbes SSD. Nos résultats ont montré que l'utilisation de CA directement sur les SSDs peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la concentration du mélange affectant 5 % ou 50% des espèces, en particulier lorsque les substances présentent un grand écart- type dans leur distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. L'application du modèle RA peut quant à lui conduire à une sur- ou sous-estimations, principalement en fonction de la pente des courbes dose- réponse de chaque espèce composant les SSDs. La sous-estimation avec RA devient potentiellement importante lorsque le rapport entre la EC50 et la EC10 de la courbe dose-réponse des espèces est plus petit que 100. Toutefois, la plupart des substances, selon des cas réels, présentent des données d' écotoxicité qui font que le risque du mélange calculé par la méthode des modèles appliqués directement sur les SSDs reste cohérent et surestimerait plutôt légèrement le risque. Ces résultats valident ainsi l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. Néanmoins, il faut garder à l'esprit cette source d'erreur lorsqu'on procède à une évaluation du risque d'un mélange avec cette méthode traditionnelle, en particulier quand les SSD présentent une distribution des données en dehors des limites déterminées dans cette étude. Enfin, dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous avons confronté des prédictions de l'effet de mélange avec des changements biologiques observés dans l'environnement. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé des données venant d'un suivi à long terme d'un grand lac européen, le lac Léman, ce qui offrait la possibilité d'évaluer dans quelle mesure la prédiction de la toxicité des mélanges d'herbicide expliquait les changements dans la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique. Ceci à côté d'autres paramètres classiques de limnologie tels que les nutriments. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons déterminé la toxicité des mélanges sur plusieurs années de 14 herbicides régulièrement détectés dans le lac, en utilisant les modèles CA et RA avec les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. Un gradient temporel de toxicité décroissant a pu être constaté de 2004 à 2009. Une analyse de redondance et de redondance partielle, a montré que ce gradient explique une partie significative de la variation de la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique, même après avoir enlevé l'effet de toutes les autres co-variables. De plus, certaines espèces révélées pour avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps, ont montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. On peut en conclure que la toxicité du mélange herbicide est l'un des paramètres clés pour expliquer les changements de phytoplancton dans le lac Léman. En conclusion, il existe diverses méthodes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques et celui-ci peut jouer un rôle dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application, avant d'utiliser leurs résultats pour la gestion des risques environnementaux. - For several years now, the scientists as well as the society is concerned by the aquatic risk organic micropollutants may pose. Indeed, several researches have shown the toxic effects these substances may induce on organisms living in our lakes or rivers, especially when they are exposed to acute or chronic concentrations. However, most of the studies focused on the toxicity of single compounds, i.e. considered individually. The same also goes in the current European regulations concerning the risk assessment procedures for the environment of these substances. But aquatic organisms are typically exposed every day simultaneously to thousands of organic compounds. The toxic effects resulting of these "cocktails" cannot be neglected. The ecological risk assessment of mixtures of such compounds has therefore to be addressed by scientists in the most reliable and appropriate way. In the first part of this thesis, the procedures currently envisioned for the aquatic mixture risk assessment in European legislations are described. These methodologies are based on the mixture model of concentration addition and the use of the predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) or effect concentrations (EC50) with assessment factors. These principal approaches were applied to two specific case studies, Lake Geneva and the River Rhône in Switzerland, including a discussion of the outcomes of such applications. These first level assessments showed that the mixture risks for these studied cases exceeded rapidly the critical value. This exceeding is generally due to two or three main substances. The proposed procedures allow therefore the identification of the most problematic substances for which management measures, such as a reduction of the entrance to the aquatic environment, should be envisioned. However, it was also showed that the risk levels associated with mixtures of compounds are not negligible, even without considering these main substances. Indeed, it is the sum of the substances that is problematic, which is more challenging in term of risk management. Moreover, a lack of reliability in the procedures was highlighted, which can lead to contradictory results in terms of risk. This result is linked to the inconsistency in the assessment factors applied in the different methods. In the second part of the thesis, the reliability of the more advanced procedures to predict the mixture effect to communities in the aquatic system were investigated. These established methodologies combine the model of concentration addition (CA) or response addition (RA) with species sensitivity distribution curves (SSD). Indeed, the mixture effect predictions were shown to be consistent only when the mixture models are applied on a single species, and not on several species simultaneously aggregated to SSDs. Hence, A more stringent procedure for mixture risk assessment is proposed, that would be to apply first the CA or RA models to each species separately and, in a second step, to combine the results to build an SSD for a mixture. Unfortunately, this methodology is not applicable in most cases, because it requires large data sets usually not available. Therefore, the differences between the two methodologies were studied with datasets created artificially to characterize the robustness of the traditional approach applying models on species sensitivity distribution. The results showed that the use of CA on SSD directly might lead to underestimations of the mixture concentration affecting 5% or 50% of species, especially when substances present a large standard deviation of the distribution from the sensitivity of the species. The application of RA can lead to over- or underestimates, depending mainly on the slope of the dose-response curves of the individual species. The potential underestimation with RA becomes important when the ratio between the EC50 and the EC10 for the dose-response curve of the species composing the SSD are smaller than 100. However, considering common real cases of ecotoxicity data for substances, the mixture risk calculated by the methodology applying mixture models directly on SSDs remains consistent and would rather slightly overestimate the risk. These results can be used as a theoretical validation of the currently applied methodology. Nevertheless, when assessing the risk of mixtures, one has to keep in mind this source of error with this classical methodology, especially when SSDs present a distribution of the data outside the range determined in this study Finally, in the last part of this thesis, we confronted the mixture effect predictions with biological changes observed in the environment. In this study, long-term monitoring of a European great lake, Lake Geneva, provides the opportunity to assess to what extent the predicted toxicity of herbicide mixtures explains the changes in the composition of the phytoplankton community next to other classical limnology parameters such as nutrients. To reach this goal, the gradient of the mixture toxicity of 14 herbicides regularly detected in the lake was calculated, using concentration addition and response addition models. A decreasing temporal gradient of toxicity was observed from 2004 to 2009. Redundancy analysis and partial redundancy analysis showed that this gradient explains a significant portion of the variation in phytoplankton community composition, even when having removed the effect of all other co-variables. Moreover, some species that were revealed to be influenced positively or negatively, by the decrease of toxicity in the lake over time, showed similar behaviors in mesocosms studies. It could be concluded that the herbicide mixture toxicity is one of the key parameters to explain phytoplankton changes in Lake Geneva. To conclude, different methods exist to predict the risk of mixture in the ecosystems. But their reliability varies depending on the underlying hypotheses. One should therefore carefully consider these hypotheses, as well as the limits of the approaches, before using the results for environmental risk management

Detecting and measuring deprivation in primary care: development, validity and reliability of a self-reported questionnaire - the DiPCare-Q

Background: General practitioners play a central role in taking deprivation into consideration when caring for patients in primary care. Validated questions to identify deprivation in primary-care practices are still lacking. For both clinical and research purposes, this study therefore aims to develop and validate a standardized instrument measuring both material and social deprivation at an individual level. Methods: The Deprivation in Primary Care Questionnaire (DiPCare-Q) was developed using qualitative and quantitative approaches between 2008 and 2011. A systematic review identified 199 questions related to deprivation. Using judgmental item quality, these were reduced to 38 questions. Two focus groups (primary-care physicians, and primary-care researchers), structured interviews (10 laymen), and think aloud interviews (eight cleaning staff) assured face validity. Item response theory analysis was then used to derive the DiPCare-Q index using data obtained from a random sample of 200 patients who were to complete the questionnaire a second time over the phone. For construct and criterion validity, the final 16 questions were administered to a random sample of 1,898 patients attending one of 47 different private primary-care practices in western Switzerland (validation set) along with questions on subjective social status (subjective SES ladder), education, source of income, welfare status, and subjective poverty. Results: Deprivation was defined in three distinct dimensions (table); material deprivation (eight items), social deprivation (five items) and health deprivation (three items). Item consistency was high in both the derivation (KR20 = 0.827) and the validation set (KR20 = 0.778). The DiPCare-Q index was reliable (ICC = 0.847). For construct validity, we showed the DiPCare-Q index to be correlated to patients' estimation of their position on the subjective SES ladder (rs = 0.539). This position was correlated to both material and social deprivation independently suggesting two separate mechanisms enhancing the feeling of deprivation. Conclusion: The DiPCare-Q is a rapid, reliable and validated instrument useful for measuring both material and social deprivation in primary care. Questions from the DiPCare-Q are easy to use when investigating patients' social history and could improve clinicians' ability to detect underlying social distress related to deprivation.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

A Collation of Recently published Western European Formulae for Age Estimation of Subadult Skeletal Remains: Recommendations For Forensic Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology

The aim of this study is to provide an effective and quick reference guide based on the most useful European formulae recently published for subadult age estimation. All of these formulae derive from studies on postnatal growth of the scapula, innominate, femur, and tibia, based on modern skeletal data (173 ♂, 173 ♀) from five documented collections from Spain, Portugal, and Britain. The formulae were calculated from Inverse Regression. For this reason, these formulae are especially useful for modern samples from Western Europe and in particular on 20th century human remains from the Iberian Peninsula. Eleven formulae were selected as the most useful because they can be applied to individuals from within a wide age range and in individuals of unknown sex. Due to their high reliability and because they derive from documented European skeletal samples, we recommend these formulae be used on individuals of Caucasoid ancestry from Western Europe.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Delivery Reliability: Timely and Quantitative Accuracy in a Forest Industry Company

The primary objective of this thesis was to research delivery reliability of mill business unit of a forest industry company, especially timely and quantitative accuracy of sales orders. Delivery reliability is an important factor of customer satisfaction, which has a great influence for success of a company. The secondary objective was to find out reasons for possible problems of delivery reliability and give propositions for improvable performances. The empirical part of the thesis based on reporting database of the forest industry company’s ERP-software and detailed information of the mill system. The delivery reliability results of the mill business unit were compared to delivery reliability of similar mill business unit inside the forest industry company. The research results expressed problems in the supply chain. The delivery reliability reporting should be also developed further. This would advance delivery reliability monitoring. The improvement propositions of the thesis were logistic operation mode estimation, particular benchmarking of the compared mill business unit and more detailed survey on production delivery reliability.

Estimation procedures affect the center of pressure frequency analysis

Even though frequency analysis of body sway is widely applied in clinical studies, the lack of standardized procedures concerning power spectrum estimation may provide unreliable descriptors. Stabilometric tests were applied to 35 subjects (20-51 years, 54-95 kg, 1.6-1.9 m) and the power spectral density function was estimated for the anterior-posterior center of pressure time series. The median frequency was compared between power spectra estimated according to signal partitioning, sampling rate, test duration, and detrending methods. The median frequency reliability for different test durations was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. When increasing number of segments, shortening test duration or applying linear detrending, the median frequency values increased significantly up to 137%. Even the shortest test duration provided reliable estimates as observed with the intraclass coefficient (0.74-0.89 confidence interval for a single 20-s test). Clinical assessment of balance may benefit from a standardized protocol for center of pressure spectral analysis that provides an adequate relationship between resolution and variance. An algorithm to estimate center of pressure power density spectrum is also proposed.

A simple test of muscle coactivation estimation using electromyography

In numerous motor tasks, muscles around a joint act coactively to generate opposite torques. A variety of indexes based on electromyography signals have been presented in the literature to quantify muscle coactivation. However, it is not known how to estimate it reliably using such indexes. The goal of this study was to test the reliability of the estimation of muscle coactivation using electromyography. Isometric coactivation was obtained at various muscle activation levels. For this task, any coactivation measurement/index should present the maximal score (100% of coactivation). Two coactivation indexes were applied. In the first, the antagonistic muscle activity (the lower electromyographic signal between two muscles that generate opposite joint torques) is divided by the mean between the agonistic and antagonistic muscle activations. In the second, the ratio between antagonistic and agonistic muscle activation is calculated. Moreover, we computed these indexes considering different electromyographic amplitude normalization procedures. It was found that the first algorithm, with all signals normalized by their respective maximal voluntary coactivation, generates the index closest to the true value (100%), reaching 92 ± 6%. In contrast, the coactivation index value was 82 ± 12% when the second algorithm was applied and the electromyographic signal was not normalized (P < 0.04). The new finding of the present study is that muscle coactivation is more reliably estimated if the EMG signals are normalized by their respective maximal voluntary contraction obtained during maximal coactivation prior to dividing the antagonistic muscle activity by the mean between the agonistic and antagonistic muscle activations.

Reliability and validity of heart rate variability threshold assessment during an incremental shuttle-walk test in middle-aged and older adults

Studies on the assessment of heart rate variability threshold (HRVT) during walking are scarce. We determined the reliability and validity of HRVT assessment during the incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) in healthy subjects. Thirty-one participants aged 57 ± 9 years (17 females) performed 3 ISWTs. During the 1st and 2nd ISWTs, instantaneous heart rate variability was calculated every 30 s and HRVT was measured. Walking velocity at HRVT in these tests (WV-HRVT1 and WV-HRVT2) was registered. During the 3rd ISWT, physiological responses were assessed. The ventilatory equivalents were used to determine ventilatory threshold (VT) and the WV at VT (WV-VT) was recorded. The difference between WV-HRVT1 and WV-HRVT2 was not statistically significant (median and interquartile range = 4.8; 4.8 to 5.4 vs4.8; 4.2 to 5.4 km/h); the correlation between WV-HRVT1 and WV-HRVT2 was significant (r = 0.84); the intraclass correlation coefficient was high (0.92; 0.82 to 0.96), and the agreement was acceptable (-0.08 km/h; -0.92 to 0.87). The difference between WV-VT and WV-HRVT2 was not statistically significant (4.8; 4.8 to 5.4 vs 4.8; 4.2 to 5.4 km/h) and the agreement was acceptable (0.04 km/h; -1.28 to 1.36). HRVT assessment during walking is a reliable measure and permits the estimation of VT in adults. We suggest the use of the ISWT for the assessment of exercise capacity in middle-aged and older adults.

Electromagnetic and thermal design of a multilevel converter with high power density and reliability

Electric energy demand has been growing constantly as the global population increases. To avoid electric energy shortage, renewable energy sources and energy conservation are emphasized all over the world. The role of power electronics in energy saving and development of renewable energy systems is significant. Power electronics is applied in wind, solar, fuel cell, and micro turbine energy systems for the energy conversion and control. The use of power electronics introduces an energy saving potential in such applications as motors, lighting, home appliances, and consumer electronics. Despite the advantages of power converters, their penetration into the market requires that they have a set of characteristics such as high reliability and power density, cost effectiveness, and low weight, which are dictated by the emerging applications. In association with the increasing requirements, the design of the power converter is becoming more complicated, and thus, a multidisciplinary approach to the modelling of the converter is required. In this doctoral dissertation, methods and models are developed for the design of a multilevel power converter and the analysis of the related electromagnetic, thermal, and reliability issues. The focus is on the design of the main circuit. The electromagnetic model of the laminated busbar system and the IGBT modules is established with the aim of minimizing the stray inductance of the commutation loops that degrade the converter power capability. The circular busbar system is proposed to achieve equal current sharing among parallel-connected devices and implemented in the non-destructive test set-up. In addition to the electromagnetic model, a thermal model of the laminated busbar system is developed based on a lumped parameter thermal model. The temperature and temperature-dependent power losses of the busbars are estimated by the proposed algorithm. The Joule losses produced by non-sinusoidal currents flowing through the busbars in the converter are estimated taking into account the skin and proximity effects, which have a strong influence on the AC resistance of the busbars. The lifetime estimation algorithm was implemented to investigate the influence of the cooling solution on the reliability of the IGBT modules. As efficient cooling solutions have a low thermal inertia, they cause excessive temperature cycling of the IGBTs. Thus, a reliability analysis is required when selecting the cooling solutions for a particular application. The control of the cooling solution based on the use of a heat flux sensor is proposed to reduce the amplitude of the temperature cycles. The developed methods and models are verified experimentally by a laboratory prototype.