What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Idiosyncratic risk really drives stock returns; Spanish evidence

Following the theoretical model of Merton (1987), we provide a new perspective of study about the role of idiosyncratic risk in the asset pricing process. More precisely, we analyze whether the idiosyncratic risk premium depends on the idiosyncratic risk level of an asset as well as the vatriation in the market-wide measure of idiosyncratic risk. As expected, we obtain a net positive risk premium for the Spanish stock market over the period 1987-2007. Our results show a positive relation between returns and individual indiosyncratic risk levels and a negative but lower relation with the aggregate measure of idiosyncratic risk. These findings have important implications for portfolio and risk management and contribute to provide a unified and coherent answer for the main and still unsolved question about the idiosyncratic risk puzzle: whether or not there exists a premium associated to this kind of risk and the sign for this risk premium.

Positive Epistasis Drives the Acquisition of Multidrug Resistance

The evolution of multiple antibiotic resistance is an increasing global problem. Resistance mutations are known to impair fitness, and the evolution of resistance to multiple drugs depends both on their costs individually and on how they interact-epistasis. Information on the level of epistasis between antibiotic resistance mutations is of key importance to understanding epistasis amongst deleterious alleles, a key theoretical question, and to improving public health measures. Here we show that in an antibiotic-free environment the cost of multiple resistance is smaller than expected, a signature of pervasive positive epistasis among alleles that confer resistance to antibiotics. Competition assays reveal that the cost of resistance to a given antibiotic is dependent on the presence of resistance alleles for other antibiotics. Surprisingly we find that a significant fraction of resistant mutations can be beneficial in certain resistant genetic backgrounds, that some double resistances entail no measurable cost, and that some allelic combinations are hotspots for rapid compensation. These results provide additional insight as to why multi-resistant bacteria are so prevalent and reveal an extra layer of complexity on epistatic patterns previously unrecognized, since it is hidden in genome-wide studies of genetic interactions using gene knockouts.

What drives urban consumption in mainland china? The role of property price dynamics

This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.

Deconstructing Purism: Unconscious Drives and Meta-argumentation in Straight Photography

The thesis investigates the nature of the Purist discourse in photography, with the aim of unveiling its lack of a solid theoretical foundation and its unconscious content. Purism outlines the fact that photography is a unique craft, that may not borrow ideas from painting or any other art forms. What makes the Purist discourse suspect and attracts attention to its possible circular style? The fact that the views expressed by its supporters include a frenzied edge, an unnecessary ardor, a combative tone that discloses that there’s something hidden, something that doesn’t serve the purpose of presenting an unbiased philosophical claim

Epithelium-Intrinsic NAIP/NLRC4 Inflammasome Drives Infected Enterocyte Expulsion to Restrict Salmonella Replication in the Intestinal Mucosa.

The gut mucosal epithelium separates the host from the microbiota, but enteropathogens such as Salmonella Typhimurium (S.Tm) can invade and breach this barrier. Defenses against such acute insults remain incompletely understood. Using a murine model of Salmonella enterocolitis, we analyzed mechanisms limiting pathogen loads in the epithelium during early infection. Although the epithelium-invading S.Tm replicate initially, this intraepithelial replicative niche is restricted by expulsion of infected enterocytes into the lumen. This mechanism is compromised if inflammasome components (NAIP1-6, NLRC4, caspase-1/-11) are deleted, or ablated specifically in the epithelium, resulting in ∼100-fold higher intraepithelial loads and accelerated lymph node colonization. Interestingly, the cytokines downstream of inflammasome activation, interleukin (IL)-1α/β and IL-18, appear dispensable for epithelial restriction of early infection. These data establish the role of an epithelium-intrinsic inflammasome, which drives expulsion of infected cells to restrict the pathogen's intraepithelial proliferation. This may represent a general defense mechanism against mucosal infections.

Steroid hormone pulsing drives cyclic gene expression.

Transcriptional cycling of activated glucocorticoid receptor (GR) and ultradian glucocorticoid secretion are well established processes. Ultradian hormone release is now shown to result in pulsatile gene transcription through dynamic exchange of GR with the target-gene promoter and GR cycling through the chaperone machinery.

Relatedness among arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi drives plant growth and intraspecific fungal coexistence.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) form symbioses with most plant species. They are ecologically important determinants of plant growth and diversity. Considerable genetic variation occurs in AMF populations. Thus, plants are exposed to AMF of varying relatedness to each other. Very little is known about either the effects of coexisting AMF on plant growth or which factors influence intraspecific AMF coexistence within roots. No studies have addressed whether the genetics of coexisting AMF, and more specifically their relatedness, influences plant growth and AMF coexistence. Relatedness is expected to influence coexistence between individuals, and it has been suggested that decreasing ability of symbionts to coexist can have negative effects on the growth of the host. We tested the effect of a gradient of AMF genetic relatedness on the growth of two plant species. Increasing relatedness between AMFs lead to markedly greater plant growth (27% biomass increase with closely related compared to distantly related AMF). In one plant species, closely related AMF coexisted in fairly equal proportions but decreasing relatedness lead to a very strong disequilibrium between AMF in roots, indicating much stronger competition. Given the strength of the effects with such a shallow relatedness gradient and the fact that in the field plants are exposed to a steeper gradient, we consider that AMF relatedness can have a strong role in plant growth and the ability of AMF to coexist. We conclude that AMF relatedness is a driver of plant growth and that relatedness is also a strong driver of intraspecific coexistence of these ecologically important symbionts.

L'évaluation actuarielle de la dangerosité: impasses éthiques et dérives sociétales

Le débat qui s'est instauré autour de l'évaluation de la dangerosité par des outils statistiques actuariels s'inscrit dans une évolution préoccupante des pratiques pénales et des attentes sociales. L'instauration de privations de liberté à durée indéterminée et l'utilisation de l'évaluation psychiatrique pour déterminer cette privation peuvent conduire à utiliser ces outils d'évaluation comme facteurs de stigmatisation et d'exclusion. Outils cliniques lorsqu'ils ont été créés, ils sont souvent utilisés comme supports de nouveaux modes de gestion des populations pénales. Ils peuvent aussi contribuer à un renforcement de la stigmatisation sociale à l'égard de la maladie psychique en assimilant celle-ci à un risque de violence. L'évaluation du risque de violence doit donc rester une pratique avant tout clinique où l'usage d'instruments d'aide à la réflexion garde sa pertinence, mais doit faire l'objet d'une interrogation éthique et de définition de règles de bonne pratique.

A 338-bp proximal fragment of the glucose transporter type 2 (GLUT2) promoter drives reporter gene expression in the pancreatic islets of transgenic mice.

The high Km glucose transporter GLUT2 is a membrane protein expressed in tissues involved in maintaining glucose homeostasis, and in cells where glucose-sensing is necessary. In many experimental models of diabetes, GLUT2 gene expression is decreased in pancreatic beta-cells, which could lead to a loss of glucose-induced insulin secretion. In order to identify factors involved in pancreatic beta-cell specific expression of GLUT2, we have recently cloned the murine GLUT2 promoter and identified cis-elements within the 338-bp of the proximal promoter capable of binding islet-specific trans-acting factors. Furthermore, in transient transfection studies, this 338-bp fragment could efficiently drive the expression of the chloramphenicol acetyl transferase (CAT) gene in cell lines derived from the endocrine pancreas, but displayed no promoter activity in non-pancreatic cells. In this report, we tested the cell-specific expression of a CAT reporter gene driven by a short (338 bp) and a larger (1311 bp) fragment of the GLUT2 promoter in transgenic mice. We generated ten transgenic lines that integrated one of the constructs. CAT mRNA expression in transgenic tissues was assessed using the RNAse protection assay and the quantitative reverse transcribed polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Overall CAT mRNA expression for both constructs was low compared to endogenous GLUT2 mRNA levels but the reporter transcript could be detected in all animals in the pancreatic islets and the liver, and in a few transgenic lines in the kidney and the small intestine. The CAT protein was also present in Langerhans islets and in the liver for both constructs by immunocytochemistry. These findings suggest that the proximal 338 bp of the murine GLUT2 promoter contain cis-elements required for the islet-specific expression of GLUT2.

Viral superantigen drives extrafollicular and follicular B cell differentiation leading to virus-specific antibody production.

Mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV[SW]) encodes a superantigen expressed by infected B cells. It evokes an antibody response specific for viral envelope protein, indicating selective activation of antigen-specific B cells. The response to MMTV(SW) in draining lymph nodes was compared with the response to haptenated chicken gamma globulin (NP-CGG) using flow cytometry and immunohistology. T cell priming occurs in both responses, with T cells proliferating in association with interdigitating dendritic cells in the T zone. T cell proliferation continues in the presence of B cells in the outer T zone, and B blasts then undergo exponential growth and differentiation into plasma cells in the medullary cords. Germinal centers develop in both responses, but those induced by MMTV(SW) appear later and are smaller. Most T cells activated in the T zone and germinal centers in the MMTV(SW) response are superantigen specific and these persist for weeks in lymph nodes draining the site MMTV(SW) injection: this contrasts with the selective loss of superantigen-specific T cells from other secondary lymphoid tissues. The results indicate that this viral superantigen, when expressed by professional antigen-presenting cells, drives extrafollicular and follicular B cell differentiation leading to virus-specific antibody production.

Predation drives interpopulation differences in parental care expression.

Expressing parental care after oviposition or parturition is usually an obligate (evolved) trait within a species, despite evolutionary theory predicting that widespread species should vary in whether or not they express parental care according to local selection pressures. The lizard Eutropis longicaudata expresses maternal care only in a single population throughout its large geographical range, but why this pattern occurs is unknown. We used reciprocal translocation and predator exclusion experiments to test whether this intraspecific variation is a fixed trait within populations and whether predator abundance explains this perplexing pattern. Wild-caught female lizards that were reciprocally translocated consistently guarded or abandoned eggs in line with their population of origin. By contrast, most lizards raised in a common garden environment and subsequently released as adults adopted the maternal care strategy of the recipient population, even when the parents originated from a population lacking maternal care. Egg predation represents a significant fitness cost in the populations where females display egg-guarding behaviour, but guarding eggs outweighs this potential cost by increasing hatching success. These results imply that predators can be a driving force in the expression of parental care in instances where it is normally absent and that local selection pressure is sufficient to cause behavioural divergence in whether or not parental care is expressed.

Length of activity season drives geographic variation in body size of a widely distributed lizard

Understanding the factors that drive geographic variation in life history is an important challenge in evolutionary ecology. Here, we analyze what predicts geographic variation in life-history traits of the common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, which has the globally largest distribution range of all terrestrial reptile species. Variation in body size was predicted by differences in the length of activity season, while we found no effects of environmental temperature per se. Females experiencing relatively short activity season mature at a larger size and remain larger on average than females in populations with relatively long activity seasons. Interpopulation variation in fecundity was largely explained by mean body size of females and reproductive mode, with viviparous populations having larger clutch size than oviparous populations. Finally, body size-fecundity relationship differs between viviparous and oviparous populations, with relatively lower reproductive investment for a given body size in oviparous populations. While the phylogenetic signal was weak overall, the patterns of variation showed spatial effects, perhaps reflecting genetic divergence or geographic variation in additional biotic and abiotic factors. Our findings emphasize that time constraints imposed by the environment rather than ambient temperature play a major role in shaping life histories in the common lizard. This might be attributed to the fact that lizards can attain their preferred body temperature via behavioral thermoregulation across different thermal environments. Length of activity season, defining the maximum time available for lizards to maintain optimal performance, is thus the main environmental factor constraining growth rate and annual rates of mortality. Our results suggest that this factor may partly explain variation in the extent to which different taxa follow ecogeographic rules.