Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Spinous Process Osteochondroma as a Rare Cause of Lumbar Pain

We present a case of a 5th Lumbar Vertebra (L5) spinous process osteochondroma as a rare cause of lumbar pain in an old patient. A 70-year-old male presented with progressive and disabling lower lumbar pain. Tenderness over the central and left paraspinal area of the lower lumbar region and a palpable mass were evident. CT scan showed a mass arising from the spinous process of L5. Marginal resection of the tumor was performed through a posterior approach. The histological study revealed an osteochondroma. After surgery, pain was completely relieved. After one year there was no evidence of local recurrence or symptoms. Osteochondromas rarely involve the spine, but when they do symptoms like pain, radiculopathy/myelopathy, or cosmetic deformity may occur. The imagiologic exam of election for diagnosis is CT scan. When symptomatic the treatment of choice is surgical resection. The most concerning complication of osteochondromas is malignant transformation, a rare event.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Editor's introduction

It is a very rare event when a book by a senior Chinese policy adviser gets published in English. More often the accepted format is biography or auto-biography, generally published once the person has retired. This book was first published by Xinhua Press in Chinese in a longer version in 2009. Initially it was directed at the Chinese reader, more specifically the Chinese cultural academic, and for this reason some of the material is not repeated in this abridged version. Nevertheless, it is important to point out that the author represents four speaking positions, and the messages that emerge from this work need to be contextualized accordingly.

Cross-entropy optimization for scaling factors of a fuzzy controller : a see-and-avoid approach for unmanned aerial systems

The Cross-Entropy (CE) is an efficient method for the estimation of rare-event probabilities and combinatorial optimization. This work presents a novel approach of the CE for optimization of a Soft-Computing controller. A Fuzzy controller was designed to command an unmanned aerial system (UAS) for avoiding collision task. The only sensor used to accomplish this task was a forward camera. The CE is used to reach a near-optimal controller by modifying the scaling factors of the controller inputs. The optimization was realized using the ROS-Gazebo simulation system. In order to evaluate the optimization a big amount of tests were carried out with a real quadcopter.

Dapsone-induced agranulocytosis. The role of xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes demonstrated by a case report [Dapson-induzierte Agranulozytose]

A 34-year-old female patient with a three year history of generalized granuloma annulare was treated systemically with dapsone (DADPS). Six weeks after the onset of treatment, the patient developed an extensive tonsillitis of the base of the tongue with fever and malaise. Routine laboratory work showed a leukocytopenia with agranulocytosis. Further investigation revealed a marked decrease of the enzyme activity of N-acetyltransferase 2, which plays an important role in dapsone metabolism. Treatment included the cessation of dapsone, antibiotic coverage, and G-CSF leading to the rapid improvement of symptoms and normalization of leukocyte counts. Dapsone-induced angina agranulocytotica is a rare event and is interpreted as an idiosyncratic reaction. Depending on genetic polymorphisms of various enzymes, dapsone can be metabolized to immunologically or toxicologically relevant intermediates. Because of the risk of severe hematologic reactions, dapsone should only be employed for solid indications and with appropriate monitoring. [Article in German]

The value of tail risk hedging in defined contribution plans: What does history tell us

Hedging against tail events in equity markets has been forcefully advocated in the aftermath of recent global financial crisis. Whether this is beneficial to long horizon investors like employees enrolled in defined contribution (DC) plans, however, has been subject to criticism. We conduct historical simulation since 1928 to examine the effectiveness of active and passive tail risk hedging using out of money put options for hypothetical equity portfolios of DC plan participants with 20 years to retirement. Our findings show that the cost of tail hedging exceeds the benefits for a majority of the plan participants during the sample period. However, for a significant number of simulations, hedging result in superior outcomes relative to an unhedged position. Active tail hedging is more effective when employees confront several panic-driven periods characterized by short and sharp market swings in the equity markets over the investment horizon. Passive hedging, on the other hand, proves beneficial when they encounter an extremely rare event like the Great Depression as equity markets go into deep and prolonged decline.

Highly efficient spin-conversion effect leading to energy up-converted electroluminescence in singlet fission photovoltaics

Free charge generation in donor-acceptor (D-A) based organic photovoltaic diodes (OPV) progresses through formation of charge-transfer (CT) and charge-separated (CS) states and excitation decay to the triplet level is considered as a terminal loss. On the other hand a direct excitation decay to the triplet state is beneficial for multiexciton harvesting in singlet fission photovoltaics (SF-PV) and the formation of CT-state is considered as a limiting factor for multiple triplet harvesting. These two extremes when present in a D-A system are expected to provide important insights into the mechanism of free charge generation and spin-character of bimolecular recombination in OPVs. Herein, we present the complete cycle of events linked to spin conversion in the model OPV system of rubrene/C60. By tracking the spectral evolution of photocurrent generation at short-circuit and close to open-circuit conditions we are able to capture spectral changes to photocurrent that reveal the triplet character of CT-state. Furthermore, we unveil an energy up-conversion effect that sets in as a consequence of triplet population build-up where triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) process effectively regenerates the singlet excitation. This detailed balance is shown to enable a rare event of photon emission just above the open-circuit voltage (VOC) in OPVs.

Unusual RNA plant virus integration in the soybean genome leads to the production of small RNAs

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is known to be a major force in genome evolution. The acquisition of genes from viruses by eukaryotic genomes is a well-studied example of HGT, including rare cases of non-retroviral RNA virus integration. The present study describes the integration of cucumber mosaic virus RNA-1 into soybean genome. After an initial metatranscriptomic analysis of small RNAs derived from soybean, the de novo assembly resulted a 3029-nt contig homologous to RNA-1. The integration of this sequence in the soybean genome was confirmed by DNA deep sequencing. The locus where the integration occurred harbors the full RNA-1 sequence followed by the partial sequence of an endogenous mRNA and another sequence of RNA-1 as an inverted repeat and allowing the formation of a hairpin structure. This region recombined into a retrotransposon located inside an exon of a soybean gene. The nucleotide similarity of the integrated sequence compared to other Cucumber mosaic virus sequences indicates that the integration event occurred recently. We described a rare event of non-retroviral RNA virus integration in soybean that leads to the production of a double-stranded RNA in a similar fashion to virus resistance RNAi plants.

Measurement of the top quark mass with dilepton events selected using neuroevolution at CDF

We report a measurement of the top quark mass $M_t$ in the dilepton decay channel $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu'_\ell\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$. Events are selected with a neural network which has been directly optimized for statistical precision in top quark mass using neuroevolution, a technique modeled on biological evolution. The top quark mass is extracted from per-event probability densities that are formed by the convolution of leading order matrix elements and detector resolution functions. The joint probability is the product of the probability densities from 344 candidate events in 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions collected with the CDF II detector, yielding a measurement of $M_t= 171.2\pm 2.7(\textrm{stat.})\pm 2.9(\textrm{syst.})\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$.

Top quark mass measurement in the tt̅ all hadronic channel using a matrix element technique in pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in the all-hadronic channel (\tt $\to$ \bb$q_{1}\bar{q_{2}}q_{3}\bar{q_{4}}$) using 943 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collisions at $\sqrt {s} = 1.96$ TeV collected at the CDF II detector at Fermilab (CDF). We apply the standard model production and decay matrix-element (ME) to $\ttbar$ candidate events. We calculate per-event probability densities according to the ME calculation and construct template models of signal and background. The scale of the jet energy is calibrated using additional templates formed with the invariant mass of pairs of jets. These templates form an overall likelihood function that depends on the top quark mass and on the jet energy scale (JES). We estimate both by maximizing this function. Given 72 observed events, we measure a top quark mass of 171.1 $\pm$ 3.7 (stat.+JES) $\pm$ 2.1 (syst.) GeV/$c^{2}$. The combined uncertainty on the top quark mass is 4.3 GeV/$c^{2}$.

Measurement of the Top-Quark Mass with Dilepton Events Selected Using Neuroevolution at CDF

We report a measurement of the top quark mass $M_t$ in the dilepton decay channel $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu'_\ell\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$. Events are selected with a neural network which has been directly optimized for statistical precision in top quark mass using neuroevolution, a technique modeled on biological evolution. The top quark mass is extracted from per-event probability densities that are formed by the convolution of leading order matrix elements and detector resolution functions. The joint probability is the product of the probability densities from 344 candidate events in 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions collected with the CDF II detector, yielding a measurement of $M_t= 171.2\pm 2.7(\textrm{stat.})\pm 2.9(\textrm{syst.})\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$.

Caspase-3-dependent phagocyte death during systemic Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium infection of mice.

Growth of Salmonella enterica in mammalian tissues results from continuous spread of bacteria to new host cells. Our previous work indicated that infective S. enterica are liberated from host cells via stochastic necrotic burst independently of intracellular bacterial numbers. Here we report that liver phagocytes can undergo apoptotic caspase-3-mediated cell death in vivo, with apoptosis being a rare event, more prevalent in heavily infected cells. The density-dependent apoptotic cell death is likely to constitute an alternative mechanism of bacterial spread as part of a bet-hedging strategy, ensuring an ongoing protective intracellular environment in which some bacteria can grow and persist.