Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Feasibility of developing low-cost measures of demand for public transportation in rural ares /

Mode of access: Internet.

An heuristic approach for optimal location of gas supply units in transportation system

The best places to locate the Gas Supply Units (GSUs) on a natural gas systems and their optimal allocation to loads are the key factors to organize an efficient upstream gas infrastructure. The number of GSUs and their optimal location in a gas network is a decision problem that can be formulated as a linear programming problem. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable location model, reflecting real-world operations and constraints of a natural gas system. This paper presents a heuristic model, based on lagrangean approach, developed for finding the optimal GSUs location on a natural gas network, minimizing expenses and maximizing throughput and security of supply.The location model is applied to the Iberian high pressure natural gas network, a system modelised with 65 demand nodes. These nodes are linked by physical and virtual pipelines – road trucks with gas in liquefied form. The location model result shows the best places to locate, with the optimal demand allocation and the most economical gas transport mode: by pipeline or by road truck.

Inventory-routing model, for a multi-period problem with stochastic and deterministic demand

The need for integration in the supply chain management leads us to considerthe coordination of two logistic planning functions: transportation andinventory. The coordination of these activities can be an extremely importantsource of competitive advantage in the supply chain management. The battle forcost reduction can pass through the equilibrium of transportation versusinventory managing costs. In this work, we study the specific case of aninventory-routing problem for a week planning period with different types ofdemand. A heuristic methodology, based on the Iterated Local Search, isproposed to solve the Multi-Period Inventory Routing Problem with stochasticand deterministic demand.

A Transportation Safety Planning Tool for the City of Ames, August 2011

The historically-reactive approach to identifying safety problems and mitigating them involves selecting black spots or hot spots by ranking locations based on crash frequency and severity. The approach focuses mainly on the corridor level without taking the exposure rate (vehicle miles traveled) and socio-demographics information of the study area, which are very important in the transportation planning process, into consideration. A larger study analysis unit at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level or the network planning level should be used to address the needs of development of the community in the future and incorporate safety into the long-range transportation planning process. In this study, existing planning tools (such as the PLANSAFE models presented in NCHRP Report 546) were evaluated for forecasting safety in small and medium-sized communities, particularly as related to changes in socio-demographics characteristics, traffic demand, road network, and countermeasures. The research also evaluated the applicability of the Empirical Bayes (EB) method to network-level analysis. In addition, application of the United States Road Assessment Program (usRAP) protocols at the local urban road network level was investigated. This research evaluated the applicability of these three methods for the City of Ames, Iowa. The outcome of this research is a systematic process and framework for considering road safety issues explicitly in the small and medium-sized community transportation planning process and for quantifying the safety impacts of new developments and policy programs. More specifically, quantitative safety may be incorporated into the planning process, through effective visualization and increased awareness of safety issues (usRAP), the identification of high-risk locations with potential for improvement, (usRAP maps and EB), countermeasures for high-risk locations (EB before and after study and PLANSAFE), and socio-economic and demographic induced changes at the planning-level (PLANSAFE).

Linking Real Time and Location in Scheduling Demand-Responsive Transit, September 1996

The role of rural demand-responsive transit is changing, and with that change is coming an increasing need for technology. As long as rural transit was limited to a type of social service transportation for a specific set of clients who primarily traveled in groups to common meal sites, work centers for the disabled, or clinics in larger communities, a preset calendar augmented by notes on a yellow legal pad was sufficient to develop schedules. Any individual trips were arranged at least 24 to 48 hours ahead of time and were carefully scheduled the night before in half-hour or twenty-minute windows by a dispatcher who knew every lane in the service area. Since it took hours to build the schedule, any last-minute changes could wreak havoc with the plans and raise the stress level in the dispatch office. Nevertheless, given these parameters, a manual scheduling system worked for a small demand-responsive operation.

Iowa in Motion, Planning Ahead State Transportation Plan, May 8, 2012

According to 23 CFR § 450.214(a), “The State shall develop a long-range statewide transportation plan, with a minimum 20-year forecast period at the time of adoption, that provides for the development and implementation of the multimodal transportation system for the State.” The state transportation plan (Plan) is a document that will address this requirement and serve as a transportation investment guide between now and 2040. Iowa’s most recent plan was developed by the Iowa Department of Transportation and adopted in 1997 through a planning process called Iowa in Motion. Much of Iowa in Motion has been implemented and this Plan, "Iowa in Motion – Planning Ahead," will build on the success of its predecessor. The Plan projects the demand for transportation infrastructure and services to 2040 based on consideration of social and economic changes likely to occur during this time. Iowa’s economy and the need to meet the challenges of the future will continue to place pressure on the transportation system. With this in mind, the Plan will provide direction for each transportation mode, and will support a renewed emphasis on efficient investment and prudent, responsible management of our existing transportation system. In recent years, the Iowa DOT has branded this philosophy as stewardship. As Iowa changes and the transportation system evolves, one constant will be that the safe and efficient movement of Iowans and our products is essential for stable growth in Iowa’s economy. Iowa’s extensive multimodal and multijurisdictional transportation system is a critical component of economic development and job creation throughout the state.

Iowa Commuter Transportation Study

During the 2014 legislative session, Senate File 2349 was passed which states the Iowa Department of Transportation “shall conduct a study to identify administrative needs, projected demand, necessary capital and operating costs, and public transit service structures including park-and-ride lots, employer or public van pool programs, and traditional fixed-route transit. The department shall submit a report with findings and recommendations to the general assembly on or before December 15, 2014.”

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Institutional and regulatory causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy. Based on our analysis, we also discuss policy remedies and suggest reforms in different regulatory areas, which could help improve the performance of Spain’s infrastructure policy.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)