Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of Queuing Systems with a Generalized Departure Process

This work was supported by the Bulgarian National Science Fund under grant BY-TH-105/2005.

Family Size Evolution in Drosophila Chemosensory Gene Families: A Comparative Analysis with a Critical Appraisal of Methods

Gene turnover rates and the evolution of gene family sizes are important aspects of genome evolution. Here, we use curated sequence data of the major chemosensory gene families from Drosophila-the gustatory receptor, odorant receptor, ionotropic receptor, and odorant-binding protein families-to conduct a comparative analysis among families, exploring different methods to estimate gene birth and death rates, including an ad hoc simulation study. Remarkably, we found that the state-of-the-art methods may produce very different rate estimates, which may lead to disparate conclusions regarding the evolution of chemosensory gene family sizes in Drosophila. Among biological factors, we found that a peculiarity of D. sechellia's gene turnover rates was a major source of bias in global estimates, whereas gene conversion had negligible effects for the families analyzed herein. Turnover rates vary considerably among families, subfamilies, and ortholog groups although all analyzed families were quite dynamic in terms of gene turnover. Computer simulations showed that the methods that use ortholog group information appear to be the most accurate for the Drosophila chemosensory families. Most importantly, these results reveal the potential of rate heterogeneity among lineages to severely bias some turnover rate estimation methods and the need of further evaluating the performance of these methods in a more diverse sampling of gene families and phylogenetic contexts. Using branch-specific codon substitution models, we find further evidence of positive selection in recently duplicated genes, which attests to a nonneutral aspect of the gene birth-and-death process.

Cartels: the Probability of Getting Caught in the European Union. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 12/March 2008

In 1991, Bryant and Eckard estimated the annual probability that a cartel would be detected by the US Federal authorities, conditional on being detected, to be at most between 13 % and 17 %. 15 years later, we estimated the same probability over a European sample and we found an annual probability that falls between 12.9 % and 13.3 %. We also develop a detection model to clarify this probability. Our estimate is based on detection durations, calculated from data reported for all the cartels convicted by the European Commission from 1969 to the present date, and a statistical birth and death process model describing the onset and detection of cartels.

Sustainable deployment of QTLs conferring quantitative resistance to crops: first lessons from a stochastic model

International audience

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Modelling the activated sludge flocculation process combining laser light diffraction particle sizing and population balance modelling (PBM)

A technique based on laser light diffraction is shown to be successful in collecting on-line experimental data. Time series of floc size distributions (FSD) under different shear rates (G) and calcium additions were collected. The steady state mass mean diameter decreased with increasing shear rate G and increased when calcium additions exceeded 8 mg/l. A so-called population balance model (PBM) was used to describe the experimental data, This kind of model describes both aggregation and breakage through birth and death terms. A discretised PBM was used since analytical solutions of the integro-partial differential equations are non-existing. Despite the complexity of the model, only 2 parameters need to be estimated: the aggregation rate and the breakage rate. The model seems, however, to lack flexibility. Also, the description of the floc size distribution (FSD) in time is not accurate.

Crump-Mode-Jagers Branching Process: Modelling and Application for Human Population

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J85, 92D25.

Jesus upon earth : or, the story of His birth, life, death, and resurrection.

"Designed for children" -- t.p.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study

Objective To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity.Design Multicenter cross-sectional study.Setting Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010.Population A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications.Methods The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women.Main outcome measures The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome.Results Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death).Conclusion Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Immunophenotyping and remodeling process in small airways of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: functional and prognostic significance

Background and Aims: To test whether different degrees of immunologic and fibrotic airway remodeling processes occur in idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs), with impact on functional tests and survival, we studied the collagen/elastic system and immune cell density in the bronchiolar interstitium of lungs with the major types of IIPs. Materials and Methods: Histochemistry, immunohistochemistry and morphometric analysis were used to evaluate collagen/elastic fibers and immune cells in the bronchiolar interstitium of open lung biopsies of patients with cryptogenic organizing pneumonia [COP/organizing pneumonia (OP) = 10], acute interstitial pneumonia [AIP/diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) = 20], nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP/NSIP = 20) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis/usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) = 20. Results: OP lungs presented a significant increase in collagenous/elastic fibers and in the total density of immune cells in the bronchiolar interstitium compared to controls, DAD, NSIP and UIP. We observed a significant increase in CD4, CD8 and CD20 lymphocytes, as well as in neutrophils, macrophages and plasma cells in OP. The increased amount of elastic fibers in the bronchiolar interstitium from OP lungs has a direct association with forced vital capacity (FVC) (r(s) = 0.99, P = 0.03). The most important survival predictor was CD20+ lymphocytes in the bronchiolar interstitium. In decreasing order, patients with UIP [Odds Ratio (OR) = 35.01], high forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/FVC FVC (OR = 7.01), increased CD20+ lymphocytes (OR = 4.44) and collagenous/elastic fiber densities (OR = 2.03 and OR = 1.49, respectively) in the bronchiolar interstitium were those who had the greatest risk of death, followed by those with AIP, NSIP and COP. Conclusion: Different degrees of immunologic and fibroelastotic airway remodeling processes occur in the major types of IIPs with impact on physiological tests and survival.

Neuronal autophagy as a mediator of life and death: contrasting roles in chronic neurodegenerative and acute neural disorders.

Autophagy is a cellular mechanism for degrading proteins and organelles. It was first described as a physiological process essential for cellular health and survival, and this is its role in most cells. However, it can also be a mediator of cell death, either by the triggering of apoptosis or by an independent "autophagic" cell death mechanism. This duality is important in the central nervous system, where the activation of autophagy has recently been shown to be protective in certain chronic neurodegenerative diseases but deleterious in acute neural disorders such as stroke and hypoxic/ischemic injury. The authors here discuss these distinct roles of autophagy in the nervous system with a focus on the role of autophagy in mediating neuronal death. The development of new therapeutic strategies based on the manipulation of autophagy will need to take into account these opposing roles of autophagy.

Comparative genomics of the odorant-binding and chemosensory protein gene families across the arthropoda: origin and evolutionary history of the chemosensory system

Chemoreception is a biological process essential for the survival of animals, as it allows the recognition of important volatile cues for the detection of food, egg-laying substrates, mates or predators, among other purposes. Furthermore, its role in pheromone detection may contribute to evolutionary processes such as reproductive isolation and speciation. This key role in several vital biological processes makes chemoreception a particularly interesting system for studying the role of natural selection in molecular adaptation. Two major gene families are involved in the perireceptor events of the chemosensory system: the odorant-binding protein (OBP) and chemosensory protein (CSP) families. Here, we have conducted an exhaustive comparative genomic analysis of these gene families in twenty Arthropoda species. We show that the evolution of the OBP and CSP gene families is highly dynamic, with a high number of gains and losses of genes, pseudogenes and independent origins of subfamilies. Taken together, our data clearly support the birth-and-death model for the evolution of these gene families with an overall high gene-turnover rate. Moreover, we show that the genome organization of the two families is significantly more clustered than expected by chance and, more important, that this pattern appears to be actively maintained across the Drosophila phylogeny. Finally, we suggest the homologous nature of the OBP and CSP gene families, dating back their MRCA (most recent common ancestor) to 380¿420 Mya, and we propose a scenario for the origin and diversification of these families.

Paul and death : a study in psychological coping

The present investigation looks into the attitudes toward death in Paul’s authentic letters, and puts them in relation to modern theories of psychological coping. Drawing on psychologically-oriented hermeneutic theory, and theories about psychological coping in particular, I argue that each case of psychological coping must be understood in its historical situation as strategies emanating from a specific person’s subjective appraisal (cf. Pargament, Lazarus and Folkman). Paul’s letters frequently refer to persecution and violent death. To aid in psychological coping is often integral to the purpose of the letters, which makes the perspective of psychological coping akin to their genre. In the course of a tentatively assumed chronological order of 1 Thessalonians, Galatians, 1 Corinthians, 2 Corinthians, Romans, Philippians, and Philemon, Paul moves from the perception of Jesus dying for the faithful to the understanding of dying with Jesus. His coping strategies concerning death are gradually transformed from conservative and deferring coping styles, to a more self-directing coping style, to collaborative and transformative coping styles, and finally to a new sense of deferring coping style in prison. The last case of deferring coping carries the traits of generosity and flexibility even in the face of death, which is in contrast to his previous letters. Through his correspondence, we see Paul’s attitude toward death transformed from denial to reaction, to processing, to acceptance (cf. Lindemann, Kübler-Ross, Bowlby, Parkes, among others). His strategies also shift in accordance with these understandings. Denial is accompanied by diversion, threat by aggression, processing by rumination, and acceptance by joy. The study shows the hermeneutic benefits of reading Paul’s letters as the rhetorically framed expressions of a person in a particular historical situation. The letters open small windows through which we can glimpse the coping process of a person of antiquity. In adopting the method of psychological exegesis, the study shows that the variety of attitudes toward death in Paul’s letters makes sense from the perspective of psychological coping. The psychological aspect of these letters is an underexamined richness that can extend into areas of contemporary individual and group identity, and from there to public policy and ethics.

Life and death partners: apoptosis, autophagy and the cross-talk between them

It is not surprising that the demise of a cell is a complex well-controlled process. Apoptosis, the first genetically programmed death process identified, has been extensively studied and its contribution to the pathogenesis of disease well documented. Yet, apoptosis does not function alone to determine a cell's fate. More recently, autophagy, a process in which de novo-formed membrane-enclosed vesicles engulf and consume cellular components, has been shown to engage in a complex interplay with apoptosis. In some cellular settings, it can serve as a cell survival pathway, suppressing apoptosis, and in others, it can lead to death itself, either in collaboration with apoptosis or as a back-up mechanism when the former is defective. The molecular regulators of both pathways are inter-connected; numerous death stimuli are capable of activating either pathway, and both pathways share several genes that are critical for their respective execution. The cross-talk between apoptosis and autophagy is therefore quite complex, and sometimes contradictory, but surely critical to the overall fate of the cell. Furthermore, the cross-talk is a key factor in the outcome of death-related pathologies such as cancer, its development and treatment.