Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Pollen records and age determinations from 2 profiles at Lake Nikolay, Lena Delta

Radiocarbon-dated pollen, rhizopod, chironomid and total organic carbon (TOC) records from Nikolay Lake (73°20'N, 124°12'E) and a pollen record from a nearby peat sequence are used for a detailed environmental reconstruction of the Holocene in the Lena Delta area. Shrubby Alnus fruticosa and Betula exilis tundra existed during 10,300-4800 cal. yr BP and gradually disappeared after that time. Climate reconstructions based on the pollen and chironomid records suggest that the climate during ca. 10,300-9200 cal. yr BP was up to 2-3 °C warmer than the present day. Pollen-based reconstructions show that the climate was relatively warm during 9200-6000 cal. yr BP and rather unstable between ca. 5800-3700 cal. yr BP. Both the qualitative interpretation of pollen data and the results of quantitative reconstruction indicate that climate and vegetation became similar to modern-day conditions after ca. 3600 cal. yr BP. The chironomid-based temperature reconstruction suggests a relatively warm period between ca. 2300 and 1400 cal. yr BP, which corresponds to the slightly warmer climate conditions reconstructed from the pollen. Modern chironomid and rhizopod assemblages were established after ca. 1400 cal. yr BP.

Geochemistry, physical properties, diatom abundance and datums of ODP Site 186-1150 and Hole 186-1151A

Detection of climate response to orbital forcing during Cenozoic long-term global cooling is a key to understanding the behavior of Earth's icehouse climate. Sedimentary rhythm, which is a rhythmic or cyclic variation in the sequence of sediments and sedimentary rocks, is useful for quantitative reconstruction of Earth's evolution during geological time. In this study, we attempt to (1) identify sources of natural gamma ray (NGR) emissions of core recovered during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 186 by analyses of physical properties, major element concentrations, diatom abundances, and total organic carbon contents, (2) integrate whole-core NGR intensity of recovered core with wireline logging NGR measurements in order to construct a continuous sedimentary sequence, and (3) discuss changes in the NGR signal in the time domain. This attempt gives us preliminary information to discuss climate stability in relation to orbital forcing thorough geologic time. NGR values are obtained mainly by indirectly measuring the amount of terrigenous minerals including potassium and related elements in the sediments. NGR intensity is also affected by high porosity, which in these sediments was related to the amount of diatom valves. NGR signals might be a proxy of the intensity of the East Asian monsoon off Sanriku. A continuous sedimentary record was constructed by integration of the whole-core NGR intensity measured in sediments obtained from the drilled holes with that measured directly in the borehole by wireline logging, then using a stratigraphic age model to convert to a time series covering 1.3-9.7 Ma with a short break at ~5 Ma. High sedimentation rate (H) stages were identified in the sequence, related to intervals of low-amplitude precession and eccentricity variations. The transition of the dominant periodicities through the four H stages may correlate to major shifts in the climate system, including the onset of major Northern Hemisphere glaciation, the initial stage of the East Asian monsoon intensification, and the onset of the East Asian monsoon with uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau.

Early - Late Miocene palaeoclimate data and palaefloras of 48 samples from Southern China

Southern China, especially Yunnan, has undergone high tectonic activity caused by the uplift of Himalayan Mountains during the Neogene, which led to a fast changing palaeogeography. Previous study shows that Southern China has been influenced by the Asian Monsoon since at least the Early Miocene. However, it is yet not well understood how intense the Miocene monsoon system was. In the present study, 63 fossil floras of 16 localities from Southern China are compiled and evaluated for obtaining available information concerning floristic composition, stratigraphic age, sedimentology, etc. Based on such reliable information, selected mega- and micro-floras have been analysed with the coexistence approach to obtain quantitative palaeoclimate data. Visualization of climate results in maps shows a distinct spatial differentiation in Southern China during the Miocene. Higher seasonalities of temperature and precipitation occur in the north and south parts of Southern China, respectively. During the Miocene, most regions of Southern China and Europe were both warm and humid. Central Eurasia was likely to be an arid center, which gradually spread westward and eastward. Our data provide information about Miocene climate patterns in Southern China and about the evolution of these patterns throughout the Miocene, and is also crucial to unravel and understand the climatic signals of global cooling and tectonic uplift.

Late Miocene palaeoflora and palaeoclimate of Lincang (China)

The Miocene Lincang leaf assemblage is used in this paper as proxy data to reconstruct the palaeoclimate of southwestern Yunnan (SW China) and the evolution of monsoon intensity. Three quantitative methods were chosen for this reconstruction, i.e. Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA), Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), and the Coexistence Approach (CA). These methods, however, yield inconsistent results, particularly for the precipitation, as also shown in European and other East Asian Cenozoic floras. The wide range of the reconstructed climatic parameters includes the Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) of 18.5-24.7 °C and the Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) of 1213-3711 mm. Compared with the modern Lincang climate (MAT, 17.3 °C; MAP, 1178.7 mm), the Miocene climate is slightly warmer, wetter and has a higher temperature seasonality. A detailed comparison on the palaeoclimatic variables with the coeval Late Miocene Xiaolongtan flora from the eastern part of Yunnan allows us to investigate the development and interactions of both South Asian and East Asian monsoons during the Late Miocene in southwest China, now under strong influence of these monsoon systems. Our results suggest that the monsoon climate has already been established in southwest Yunnan during the Late Miocene. Furthermore, our results support that both Southeast Asian and East Asian monsoons co-occurred in Yunnan during the Late Miocene.

Oxygen isotope composition of benthic foraminifera ofthe Florida Street

We present a new method for the quantitative reconstruction of upper ocean flows for during times in the past. For the warm (T>5°C) surface ocean, density can be accurately reconstructed from calcite precipitated in equilibrium with seawater, as both of these properties increase with decreasing temperature and increasing salinity. Vertical density profiles can be reconstructed from the oxygen isotopic composition of benthic foraminifera. The net volume transport between two vertical density profiles can be calculated using the geostrophic method. Using benthic foraminifera from surface sediment samples from either side of the Florida Straits (Florida Keys and Little Bahama Bank), we reconstruct two vertical density profiles and calculate a volume transport of 32 Sv using this method. This agrees well with estimates from physical oceanographic methods of 30-32 Sv for the mean annual volume transport. We explore the sensitivity of this technique to various changes in the relationship between temperature and salinity as well as salinity and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater.

Fossil chironomids of Lake Temje

A 380 cm long sediment core from Lake Temje (central Yakutia, Eastern Siberia) was studied to infer Holocene palaeoenvironmental change in the extreme periglacial setting of eastern Siberia during the last 10,000 years. Data on sediment composition were used to characterize changes in the depositional environment during the ontogenetic development of the Lake Temje. The analysis of fossil chironomid remains and statistical treatment of chironomid data by the application of a newly developed regional Russian transfer functions provided inferences of mean July air temperatures (T_July) and water depths (WD). Reconstructed WDs show minor changes throughout the core and range between 80 and 120 cm. All the fluctuations in reconstructed water depth lie within the mean error of prediction of the inference model (RMSEP = 0.35) so it is not possible to draw conclusions from the reconstructions. A qualitative and quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate in central Yakutia recognized three stages of palaeoenvironmental changes. The early Holocene between 10 and 8 ka BP was characterized by colder-than-today and moist summer conditions. Cryotextures in the lake sediments document full freezing of the lake water during the winter time. A general warming trend started around 8.0 ka BP in concert with enhanced biological productivity. Reconstructed mean T_July were equal or up to 1.5 °C higher than today between 6.0 ka and 5.0 ka BP. During the entire late Holocene after 4.8 ka BP, reconstructed mean T_July remained below modern value. Limnological conditions did not change significantly. The inference of a mid-Holocene climate optimum supports scenarios of Holocene climatic changes in the subpolar part of eastern Siberia and indicates climate teleconnections to the North Atlantic realm.

Stable oxygen isotope data of Globorotalia inflata and radiocarbon dates for sediment cores GeoB6211-2, GeoB13862-1, and GeoB6308-3

The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here, we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil- Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1-1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterwards variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial-scale displacements in the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multi-millennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.