Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK. Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the Flood Forecasting Centre, a recent development in national-level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.

Preparedness for rain during sunny weather: Caribbean environmental sustainability in a nuclear age

Includes bibliography

Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs

Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 692 - "The Economic and Social Consequences of Preparedness Economics" (p. IX 167.1-7)

"The Economic and Social Consequences of Preparedness Economics" (1937-1939):; 1. "First Draft of a Memorandum on a Research Project on The Economic Consequences of Preparedness Economics, planned by the International Instittute of Social Research" (13.12.1938). Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Ergänzungen, 2 Blatt; 2. Albert Lauterbach: "Project submitted to the Social Science Research Council: Sociological and Economic Aspects of Preparedness Economics". Typoskript, 3 Blatt; 3. Günther Reimann: "The Economics of Chemical Production". Typoskript, 4 Blatt; 4. Franz Neumann: "Bemerkungen zum Exposé Dr. Heiders 'Die Rolle der Bürokratie im totalitären Staat'" (22.2.1937). Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 5. Joseph Soudek: "Soziale und wirtschaftliche Aspekte der Wehrwirtschaft". Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen und Ergänzungen von Friedrich Pollock (16.1.1939), 5 Blatt; 6. "Recovery and Boom Politics", Gliederungsentwurf, 3 Blatt; 7. "Interventionism and Business Cycles", Gliederungsentwurf, 7 Blatt;

Introduction to public health preparedness for disaster and emergency response

The unprecedented attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent anthrax-related events thrust our nation's often forgotten public health system into the forefront of public attention. A strong public health system with a well-prepared workforce plays a critical role in preparing for and responding to the threat of bioterrorism and other disasters and emergencies. Technical expertise is critical as is a basic awareness and understanding of core public health competencies especially as they relate to disaster and emergency response is also imperative for a public health agency to function as a vital Emergency Response team member. Ideally this training should begin at the Public Health graduate level so as to provide the baseline core tools to be able to function as a vital team member when they are practicing out in the real world. Online learning is an efficient and effective method for providing public health education to in a flexible format to meet the needs of busy student-professions. This Public Health Disaster Preparedness online course developed during an Emergency Response state program practicum is a practical and proficient approach to accomplish this endeavor. ^

Analysis of a disaster medical track for the Certificate in Emergency Management and Preparedness Program at the University of Texas at Dallas

Since the tragic events of September 11, 2001, the United States has engaged in building the infrastructure and developing the expertise necessary to protect its borders and its citizens from further attacks against its homeland. One approach has been the development of academic courses to educate individuals on the nature and dangers of subversive attacks and to prepare them to respond to attacks and other large-scale emergencies in their roles as working professionals, participating members of their communities, and collaborators with first responders. An initial review of the literature failed to reveal any university-based emergency management courses or programs with a disaster medical component, despite the public health significance and need for such programs. In the Fall of 2003, The School of Management at The University of Texas at Dallas introduced a continuing education Certificate in Emergency Management and Preparedness Program. This thesis will (1) describe the development and implementation of a new Disaster Medical Track as a component of this Certificate in Emergency Management and Preparedness Program, (2) analyze the need for and effectiveness of this Disaster Medical Track, and (3) propose improvements in the track based on this analysis. ^

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Use of tabletop exercises for disaster preparedness training

Background. In public health preparedness, disaster preparedness refers to the strategic planning of responses to all types of disasters. Preparation and training for disaster response can be conducted using different teaching modalities, ranging from discussion-based programs such as seminars, drills and tabletop exercises to more complex operation-based programs such as functional exercises and full-scale exercises. Each method of instruction has its advantages and disadvantages. Tabletop exercises are facilitated discussions designed to evaluate programs, policies, and procedures; they are usually conducted in a classroom, often with tabletop props (e.g. models, maps or diagrams). ^ Objective. The overall goal of this project was to determine whether tabletop exercises are effective teaching modalities for disaster preparedness, with an emphasis on intentional chemical exposure. ^ Method. The target audience for the exercise was the Medical Reserve Brigade of the Texas State Guard, a group of volunteer healthcare providers and first responders who prepare for response to local disasters. A new tabletop exercise was designed to provide information on the complex, interrelated organizations within the national disaster preparedness program that this group would interact with in the event of a local disaster. This educational intervention consisted of a four hour multipart program that included a pretest of knowledge, lecture series, an interactive group discussion using a mock disaster scenario, a posttest of knowledge, and a course evaluation. ^ Results. Approximately 40 volunteers attended the intervention session; roughly half (n=21) had previously participated in a full scale drill. There was an 11% improvement in fund of knowledge between the pre- and post-test scores (p=0.002). Overall, the tabletop exercise was well received by those with and without prior training, with no significant differences found between these two groups in terms of relevance and appropriateness of content. However, the separate components of the tabletop exercise were variably effective, as gauged by written text comments on the questionnaire. ^ Conclusions. Tabletop exercises can be a useful training modality in disaster preparedness, as evidenced by improvement in knowledge and qualitative feedback on its value. Future offerings could incorporate recordings of participant responses during the drill, so that better feedback can be provided to them. Additional research should be conducted, using the same or similar design, in different populations that are stakeholders in disaster preparedness, so that the generalizability of these findings can be determined.^