Simulations of Theoretical Ecosystem Growth Model (TEGM) during various climate conditions

Climate change has a great impact on the build and the work of natural ecosystems. Disappearance of some population or growth of the number in some species can be already caused by little change in temperature. A Theoretical Ecosystem Growth Model was investigated in order to examine the effects of various climate patterns on the ecological equilibrium. The answers of the ecosystems which are given to the climate change could be described by means of global climate modelling and dynamic vegetation models. The examination of the operation of the ecosystems is only possible in huge centres on supercomputers because of the number and the complexity of the calculation. The number of the calculation could be decreased to the level of a PC by considering the temperature and the reproduction during the modelling of a theoretical ecosystem and several important theoretical questions could be answered.

Brisbane urban growth model : an integrated infrastructure management framework for Brisbane, Australia

In recent years, local government infrastructure management practices have evolved from conventional land use planning to more wide ranging and integrated urban growth and infrastructure management approaches. The roles and responsibilities of local government are no longer simply to manage daily operational functions of a city and provide basic infrastructure. Local governments are now required to undertake economic planning, manage urban growth; be involved in major infrastructure planning; and even engage in achieving sustainable development objectives. The Brisbane Urban Growth model has proven initially successful to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. This model may be the first step for many local governments to move toward an integrated, sustainable and effective infrastructure management.

Queensland Government’s people’s question time : the challenges and opportunities of population growth in Queensland

As AITPM National President, I was invited by Queensland’s Premier, Hon. Anna Bligh MP, as an audience guest to People’s Question Time on Wednesday 24 March 2010, which focused on ‘The Challenges and Opportunities of Population Growth in Queensland’. On the panel were: Premier and Minister for the Arts, Anna Bligh; Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, Kate Jones; Minister for Infrastructure and Planning, Stirling Hinchliffe; Michael Rayner – Growth Management Summit Advisory Panel, Principal Director, Cox Rayner Architects; and Greg Hallam – Executive Director, Local Government Association of Queensland. The moderator for this session was Law Academic Erin O’Brien, of Queensland University of Technology.

Brisbane urban growth model : an integrated infrastructure management framework for Brisbane, Australia

In recent years, local government infrastructure management practices have evolved from conventional land use planning to more wide ranging and integrated urban growth and infrastructure management approaches. The roles and responsibilities of local government are no longer simply to manage daily operational functions of a city and provide basic infrastructure. Local governments are now required to undertake economic planning, manage urban growth; be involved in major infrastructure planning; and even engage in achieving sustainable development objectives. The Brisbane Urban Growth model has proven initially successful to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. This model may be the first step for many local governments to move toward an integrated, sustainable and effective infrastructure management.

Resilience of water supply systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.

A novel population balance model for the dilute acid hydrolysis of hemicellulose

Acid hydrolysis is a popular pretreatment for removing hemicellulose from lignocelluloses in order to produce a digestible substrate for enzymatic saccharification. In this work, a novel model for the dilute acid hydrolysis of hemicellulose within sugarcane bagasse is presented and calibrated against experimental oligomer profiles. The efficacy of mathematical models as hydrolysis yield predictors and as vehicles for investigating the mechanisms of acid hydrolysis is also examined. Experimental xylose, oligomer (degree of polymerisation 2 to 6) and furfural yield profiles were obtained for bagasse under dilute acid hydrolysis conditions at temperatures ranging from 110C to 170C. Population balance kinetics, diffusion and porosity evolution were incorporated into a mathematical model of the acid hydrolysis of sugarcane bagasse. This model was able to produce a good fit to experimental xylose yield data with only three unknown kinetic parameters ka, kb and kd. However, fitting this same model to an expanded data set of oligomeric and furfural yield profiles did not successfully reproduce the experimental results. It was found that a ``hard-to-hydrolyse'' parameter, $\alpha$, was required in the model to ensure reproducibility of the experimental oligomer profiles at 110C, 125C and 140C. The parameters obtained through the fitting exercises at lower temperatures were able to be used to predict the oligomer profiles at 155C and 170C with promising results. The interpretation of kinetic parameters obtained by fitting a model to only a single set of data may be ambiguous. Although these parameters may correctly reproduce the data, they may not be indicative of the actual rate parameters, unless some care has been taken to ensure that the model describes the true mechanisms of acid hydrolysis. It is possible to challenge the robustness of the model by expanding the experimental data set and hence limiting the parameter space for the fitting parameters. The novel combination of ``hard-to-hydrolyse'' and population balance dynamics in the model presented here appears to stand up to such rigorous fitting constraints.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

Accounting for individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth model

Estimation of von Bertalanffy growth parameters has received considerable attention in fisheries research. Since Sainsbury (1980, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 37: 241-247) much of this research effort has centered on accounting for individual variability in the growth parameters. In this paper we demonstrate that, in analysis of tagging data, Sainsbury's method and its derivatives do not, in general, satisfactorily account for individual variability in growth, leading to inconsistent parameter estimates (the bias does not tend to zero as sample size increases to infinity). The bias arises because these methods do not use appropriate conditional expectations as a basis for estimation. This bias is found to be similar to that of the Fabens method. Such methods would be appropriate only under the assumption that the individual growth parameters that generate the growth increment were independent of the growth parameters that generated the initial length. However, such an assumption would be unrealistic. The results are derived analytically, and illustrated with a simulation study. Until techniques that take full account of the appropriate conditioning have been developed, the effect of individual variability on growth has yet to be fully understood.

Modeling population growth and site specific control of the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) under differing fire regimes

It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.

How small business managers’ age and focus on opportunities affect business growth: A mediated moderation growth model

Research on business growth has been criticized for methodological weaknesses. We present a mediated moderation growth model as a new methodological approach. We hypothesized that small business managers' age negatively affects business growth through focus on opportunities. We sampled 201 small business managers and obtained firm performance data over 5 years, resulting in 836 observations. Growth modeling showed systematic differences in firm performance trajectories. These differences could be explained by modeling focus on opportunities as a mediator of the relationship between small business managers' age and business growth. The study illustrates how mediation models can be tested using growth modeling.

A spiral growth model for quasicrystals in two dimensions

Spiral space filling geometrical constructions using rhombuses in two dimensions are considered as plausible mechanisms for quasicrystal growth. These models will show staircase-like features which may be observed experimentally.

Transposable element-medicated evolution of sex: A population genetic model

For a population made up of individuals capable of sexual as well as asexual modes of reproduction, conditions for the spread of a transposable element are explored using a one-locus, two-haplotype model. The analysis is then extended to include the possibility that the transposable element can modulate the probability of sexual reproduction, thus casting Hickey’s (1982,Genetics 101: 519–531) suggestion in a population genetics framework. The model explicitly includes the cost of sexual reproduction, fitness disadvantage to the transposable element, probability of transposition, and the predisposition for sexual reproduction in the presence and absence of the transposable element. The model predicts several kinds of outcome, including initial frequency dependence and stable polymorphism. More importantly, it is seen that for a wide range of parameter values, the transposable element can go to fixation. Therefore it is able to convert the population from a predominantly asexual to a predominantly sexual mode of reproduction. Viewed in conjunction with recent results implicating short stretches of apparently non-coding DNA in sex determination (McCoubreyet al. 1988,Science 242: 1146–1151), the model hints at the important role this mechanism could have played in the evolution of sexuality.

Autocalibration of dynamic bacterial growth model for water distribution system using GA

The presence of residual chlorine and organic matter govern the bacterial regrowth within a water distribution system. The bacterial growth model is essential to predict the spatial and temporal variation of all these substances throughout the system. The parameters governing the bacterial growth and biodegradable dissolved organic carbon (BDOC) utilization are difficult to determine by experimentation. In the present study, the estimation of these parameters is addressed by using simulation-optimization procedure. The optimal solution by genetic algorithm (GA) has indicated that the proper combination of parameter values are significant rather than correct individual values. The applicability of the model is illustrated using synthetic data generated by introducing noise in to the error-free measurements. The GA was found to be a potential tool in estimating the parameters controlling the bacterial growth and BDOC utilization. Further, the GA was also used for evaluating the sensitivity issues relating parameter values and objective function. It was observed that mu and k(cl) are more significant and dominating compared to the other parameters. But the magnitude of the parameters is also an important issue in deciding the dominance of a particular parameter. GA is found to be a useful tool in autocalibration of bacterial growth model and a sensitivity study of parameters.

Cyclical Features of Uzawa-Lucas Endogenous Growth Model

This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of a generalized version of Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model. We study the dynamic features of different cyclical components of this model characterized by a variety of decomposition methods. The decomposition methods considered can be classified in two groups. On the one hand, we consider three statistical filters: the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and Gonzalo-Granger decomposition. On the other hand, we use four model-based decomposition methods. The latter decomposition procedures share the property that the cyclical components obtained by these methods preserve the log-linear approximation of the Euler-equation restrictions imposed by the agent’s intertemporal optimization problem. The paper shows that both model dynamics and model performance substantially vary across decomposition methods. A parallel exercise is carried out with a standard real business cycle model. The results should help researchers to better understand the performance of Uzawa-Lucas model in relation to standard business cycle models under alternative definitions of the business cycle.