992 resultados para Population Spread
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Repeated antimalarial treatment for febrile episodes and self-treatment are common in malaria-endemic areas. The intake of antimalarials prior to participating in an in vivo study may alter treatment outcome and affect the interpretation of both efficacy and safety outcomes. We report the findings from baseline plasma sampling of malaria patients prior to inclusion into an in vivo study in Tanzania and discuss the implications of residual concentrations of antimalarials in this setting. In an in vivo study conducted in a rural area of Tanzania in 2008, baseline plasma samples from patients reporting no antimalarial intake within the last 28 days were screened for the presence of 14 antimalarials (parent drugs or metabolites) using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Among the 148 patients enrolled, 110 (74.3%) had at least one antimalarial in their plasma: 80 (54.1%) had lumefantrine above the lower limit of calibration (LLC = 4 ng/mL), 7 (4.7%) desbutyl-lumefantrine (4 ng/mL), 77 (52.0%) sulfadoxine (0.5 ng/mL), 15 (10.1%) pyrimethamine (0.5 ng/mL), 16 (10.8%) quinine (2.5 ng/mL) and none chloroquine (2.5 ng/mL). The proportion of patients with detectable antimalarial drug levels prior to enrollment into the study is worrying. Indeed artemether-lumefantrine was supposed to be available only at government health facilities. Although sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine is only recommended for intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), it was still widely used in public and private health facilities and sold in drug shops. Self-reporting of previous drug intake is unreliable and thus screening for the presence of antimalarial drug levels should be considered in future in vivo studies to allow for accurate assessment of treatment outcome. Furthermore, persisting sub-therapeutic drug levels of antimalarials in a population could promote the spread of drug resistance. The knowledge on drug pressure in a given population is important to monitor standard treatment policy implementation.
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Population growth and within-plant distribution of the striped mealybug Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) (Hemiptera, Pseudococcidae) on cotton. The striped mealybug, Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) (Hemiptera, Pseudococcidae), is a widely distributed and polyphagous pest species, which naturally occurs on cotton plants in Brazil. This study evaluated the establishment and population growth as well as the within-plant distribution of F. virgata on four cotton cultivars: CNPA 7H (white fibers), BRS Verde, BRS Safira, and BRS Rubi (colored fibers). The experiment was conducted in a complete randomized design with four treatments (cultivars) and 18 replications of each. Thus, cotton plants of each cultivar were infested with 100 newly hatched nymphs of F. virgata. The number of adult female mealybugs and the total number of mealybugs per plant were quantified, respectively, at 25 and 50 days after infestation. The developmental and pre-reproductive periods were also determined. Furthermore, we verified the distribution of F. virgata on the plant parts at 25 and 50 days after infestation. Ferrisia virgata showed similar growth of 412-fold in the four cotton cultivars studied. Also, the nymphs were spread on infested leaves; the secondgeneration nymphs were spread and established in all plant parts. Our results characterize F. virgata as having much potential as an important cotton pest in Brazil.
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During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.
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SUMMARY : The evolution of animal societies, where some individuals forego their own reproductive opportunities to help others to reproduce, poses an evolutionary paradox that can be traced back to Darwin. Altruism may evolve through kin selection when the donor and recipient of altruistic acts are related to each other. In social insects, workers are generally highly related to the brood they rear when colonies are headed by a single queen. Yet some ants have an extraordinary social organization, called unicoloniality, whereby individuals from separate nests mix freely to form large supercolonies, which in some cases extend over hundreds of km. These supercolonies are characterised by a high number of queens (polygyny) and an absence of clear colony boundaries. This type of social organization represents an evolutionary paradox because relatedness between nestmates is effectively zero. In such conditions, kin selection cannot account for the evolution of reproductive altruism. Moreover, unicoloniality is thought to be unstable over time, because workers that can no longer aid close relatives may evolve more selfish strategies. The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is a highly invasive species listed among the hundred world's worst invaders by the UICN. Native from South America, L. humile has been accidentally introduced throughout the world. Native populations have been described as noninvasive with a family-based organization. In contrast, within its introduction range, they form unicolonial supercolonies that contain numerous nests without intraspecific aggression. The development of such unicolonial populations has been explained as a direct consequence of the ant's introduction into a new habitat, favouring a transition from family-based to open colonies. To determine if the social structure of the Argentine ant is fundamentally different between the native and the introduced range, we studied genetically and behaviourally native and introduced populations of L. humile over different geographic scales. Our results clearly indicated that there are no fundamental differences in the social organisation of the Argentine ant between the two ranges. Our investigations revealed that, contrary to previous claims, native populations have a unicolonial social organisation very similar to that observed in the introduced range. Consequently, the unicolonial social structure of the Argentine ant does not stem from a shift in social organization associated with introduction into new habitats but evolved in the native range and is likely a stable, evolutionarily ancient adaptation to the local environment. Our study on native populations of L. humile also gave important insight in the comprehension of the evolution of unicoloniality in the Argentine ant. Native supercolonies are relatively small compared to introduced ones and may co-habit in a same population. These supercolonies are genetically highly differentiated leading to a significant relatedness among nestmate workers when the different supercolonies of a population are taken as a reference population. This provides the necessary conditions for loin selection to operate. Furthermore, we examined a native population over time, which revealed a high supercolony extinction rate. If more competitive supercolonies are more likely to survive or replace other supercolonies, a subtle dynamical process between the spread of selfish traits within supercolony and the selective elimination of supercolonies with such traits may allow a stable equilibrium and the persistence of unicoloniality over time. Finally, a worldwide study of the Argentine ant showed that the introduced supercolonies originate from numerous independent introduction events. In conclusion, the success of the Argentine ant does not stem from a shift in social organization associated with its introduction into new habitats, but is most probably explained by the intrinsic characteristics developed in its native range. RESUME : L'altruisme de reproduction où certains individus renoncent à leur propre reproduction pour aider d'autres individus à se reproduire constitue l'un des plus grand paradoxe de l'évolution. En effet, comment expliquer l'évolution de comportements qui tendent à augmenter les chances de survie et le succès reproductif d'autres individus, alors que ces actes diminuent l'aptitude de leurs auteurs ? La théorie de la sélection de parentèle permet de résoudre ce problème. Cette théorie stipule qu'en aidant de proches parents à se reproduire, les individus peuvent promouvoir indirectement la transmission de copies de leurs propres gènes à la génération suivante. Chez les insectes sociaux, l'altruisme des ouvrières s'explique par la théorie de sélection de parentèle lorsque les colonies sont monogynes (constituées d'une seule reine) puisque les ouvrières sont fortement apparentées aux couvains dont elles s'occupent. Par contre, les espèces dites unicoloniales, dont les colonies forment des réseaux de nids appelés supercolonies, représentent toujours un paradoxe pour les théories de l'évolution puisque l'apparentement entre les différents individus d'un nid est nulle. De plus, l'unicolonialité ne devrait pas être stable sur le long terme parce que les ouvrières qui ne s'occupent plus de leur apparentés devraient développer des stratégies plus égoïstes au cours du temps. La fourmi d'Argentine (Linepithema humile) est une espèce invasive ayant un impact considérable sur son environnement. Originaire d'Amérique du Sud, elle a été introduite dans pratiquement toutes les régions du monde dont le climat est de type méditerranéen. Son incroyable succès invasif s'explique par sa structure sociale unicoloniale observée dans chacun des pays où elle a été introduite. Par contre, les rares études effectuées en Argentine ont suggéré que la fourmi d'Argentine n'était pas unicoloniale dans son aire native. L'unicolonialité chez la fourmi d'Argentine était donc considéré comme une conséquence de son introduction dans de nouveaux environnements. Durant cette thèse, nous avons vérifié si la structure sociale de cette espèce différait fondamentalement entre l'aire native et introduite. Pour cela, nous avons étudié, à différentes échelles géographiques, des populations introduites et argentines avec une approche génétique et comportementale. L'ensemble de nos résultats montrent que les différences entre les deux structure sociales ne sont pas aussi importantes que ce que l'on imaginait. Les populations natives sont aussi constituées de réseaux de nids coopérants. La taille de ses supercolonies est toutefois bien moins importante en Argentine et il n'est pas rare de trouver plusieurs supercolonies cohabitantes dans une même population. Nous avons démontré que ces réseaux de nids étaient constitués d'individus qui sont plus apparentés entre eux qu'ils ne le sont avec les individus d'autres supercolonies, ainsi l'unicolonialité dans son aire d'origine ne représente pas un réel paradoxe pour les théories de l'évolution. Finalement nous avons étudié la même population en Argentine à six ans d'intervalle et avons constaté que les supercolonies avaient un taux de survie très faible ce qui pourrait expliquer la stabilité de l'unicolonialité au cours du temps. Si les supercolonies les plus compétitives survivent mieux que les supercolonies dans lesquelles apparaissent des traits égoïstes, on devrait alors observer une dynamique entre l'apparition de traits égoïstes et l'élimination des supercolonies dans lesquelles ces traits égoïstes évolueraient. Finalement, une étude mondiale nous a montré que les supercolonies étaient originaires de nombreux événements d'introductions indépendants. En conclusion, le succès invasif de la fourmi d'Argentine n'est donc pas dû à un changement de comportement associé à son introduction mais est lié aux caractéristiques qu'elle a développées en Argentine.
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During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.
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The advent of simple and affordable tools for molecular identification of novel insect invaders and assessment of population diversity has changed the face of invasion biology in recent years. The widespread application of these tools has brought with it an emerging understanding that patterns in biogeography, introduction history and subsequent movement and spread of many invasive alien insects are far more complex than previously thought. We reviewed the literature and found that for a number of invasive insects, there is strong and growing evidence that multiple introductions, complex global movement, and population admixture in the invaded range are commonplace. Additionally, historical paradigms related to species and strain identities and origins of common invaders are in many cases being challenged. This has major consequences for our understanding of basic biology and ecology of invasive insects and impacts quarantine, management and biocontrol programs. In addition, we found that founder effects rarely limit fitness in invasive insects and may benefit populations (by purging harmful alleles or increasing additive genetic variance). Also, while phenotypic plasticity appears important post-establishment, genetic diversity in invasive insects is often higher than expected and increases over time via multiple introductions. Further, connectivity among disjunct regions of global invasive ranges is generally far higher than expected and is often asymmetric, with some populations contributing disproportionately to global spread. We argue that the role of connectivity in driving the ecology and evolution of introduced species with multiple invasive ranges has been historically underestimated and that such species are often best understood in a global context.
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Bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BoHV-1) is recognized as a major cause of respiratory, reproductive disease and abortion in cattle. Vaccination is widely applied to minimize losses induced by BoHV-1 infections; however, vaccination of dams during pregnancy with modified live virus (MLV) vaccines has been occasionally associated to abortions. We have previously reported the development of a BoHV-1 recombinant virus, constructed with basis on a Brazilian BoHV-1 (Franco et al. 2002a) from which the gene coding for glycoprotein E (gE) was deleted (gE-) by genetic manipulation. Such recombinant has been previously evaluated in its potential as a differential vaccine (gE- vaccine) that allows differentiation between vaccinated and infected animals. Here, in the first part of the present study, the safety of the gE- vaccine during pregnancy was evaluated by the intramuscular inoculation of 10(7.4) tissue culture 50 % infective doses (TCID50) of the virus into 22 pregnant dams (14 BoHV-1 seronegative; 8 seropositive), at different stages of gestation. Other 15 pregnant dams were kept as non-vaccinated controls. No abortions, stillbirths or fetal abnormalities were seen after vaccination. Seroconversion was observed in both groups of previously seronegative vaccinated animals. In the second part of the study, the potential of the gE- vaccine virus to spread among beef cattle under field conditions was examined. Four heifers were inoculated intranasally with a larger amount (10(7,6) TCID50) of the gE- vaccine (to increase chances of transmission) and mixed with other sixteen animals at the same age and body condition, in the same grazing area, at a population density equal to the average cattle farming density within the region (one cattle head per 10,000 m²), for 180 days. All animals were monitored daily for clinical signs. Serum samples were collected on days 0, 30, 60 and 180 post-vaccination. Seroconversion was observed only in vaccinated heifers. These results indicate that, under the conditions of the present study, the gE- vaccine virus did not cause any noticeable harmful effect on pregnant dams and on its offspring and did not spread horizontally among cattle.
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This thesis presents population dynamics models that can be applied to predict the rate of spread of the Neolithic transition (change from hunter-gathering to farming economics) across the European continent, which took place about 9000 to 5000 years ago. The first models in this thesis provide predictions at a continental scale. We develop population dynamics models with explicit kernels and apply realistic data. We also derive a new time-delayed reaction-diffusion equation which yields speeds about a 10% slower than previous models. We also deal with a regional variability: the slowdown of the Neolithic front when reaching the North of Europe. We develop simple reaction-diffusion models that can predict the measured speeds in terms of the non-homogeneous distribution of pre-Neolithic (Mesolithic) population in Europe, which were present in higher densities at the North of the continent. Such models can explain the observed speeds.
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1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.
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Extensive population structuring is known to occur in Anopheles darlingi, the primary malaria vector of the Neotropics. We analysed the phylogeographic structure of the species using the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I marker. Diversity is divided into six main population groups in South America: Colombia, central Amazonia, southern Brazil, south-eastern Brazil, and two groups in north-east Brazil. The ancestral distribution of the taxon is hypothesized to be central Amazonia, and there is evidence of expansion from this region during the late Pleistocene. The expansion was not a homogeneous front, however, with at least four subgroups being formed due to geographic barriers. As the species spread, populations became isolated from each other by the Amazon River and the coastal mountain ranges of south-eastern Brazil and the Andes. Analyses incorporating distances around these barriers suggest that the entire South American range of An. darlingi is at mutation-dispersal-drift equilibrium. Because the species is distributed throughout such a broad area, the limited dispersal across some landscape types promotes differentiation between otherwise proximate populations. Moreover, samples from the An. darlingi holotype location in Rio de Janeiro State are substantially derived from all other populations, implying that there may be additional genetic differences of epidemiological relevance. The results obtained contribute to our understanding of gene flow in this species and allow the formulation of human mosquito health protocols in light of the potential population differences in vector capacity or tolerance to control strategies. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 97, 854-866.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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In 1975, a wild white-tailed deer infected with bovine tuberculosis was shot in the northeastern Lower Peninsula, Michigan. The shooting of a second infected deer in the same area in 1994 triggered ongoing disease surveillance in the region. By 2002, bovine tuberculosis had been confirmed in 12 Michigan counties: from 449 deer; two elk; 41 non-cervid wildlife; one captive cervid facility and 28 cattle herds. We analyzed geographic spread of disease since the surveillance began and investigated factors influencing the prevalence of disease within the infected area. These analyses reveal that 78 percent of tuberculous deer came from within a 1560 km2 'core' area, within which the prevalence of apparent disease averaged 2.5 percent. Prevalence declined dramatically outside of the core and was an order of magnitude lower 30 km from its boundary. This prevalence gradient was highly significant (P<0.0001) and did not alter over the 6 year surveillance period (P= 0.98). Within the core, deer density and supplemental feeding by hunters were positively and independently correlated with tuberculosis prevalence in deer. Together, these two factors explained 55 percent of the variation in prevalence. We conclude that bovine tuberculosis was already well established in the deer population in 1994, that the infected area has not expanded significantly since that time, and that deer over-abundance and food supplementation have both contributed to ongoing transmission of disease. Managers are currently enforcing prohibitions on deer feeding in the core and are working to lower deer numbers there through increased hunting pressure.
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Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.
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Background: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is one of the major etiologic agents of respiratory tract infections among children worldwide. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here through a comprehensive analysis of the two major HRSV groups A and B (n = 1983) which comprise of several genotypes, we present a complex pattern of population dynamics of HRSV over a time period of 50 years (1956-2006). Circulation pattern of HRSV revealed a series of expansions and fluctuations of co-circulating lineages with a predominance of HRSVA. Positively selected amino acid substitutions of the G glycoprotein occurred upon population growth of GB3 with a 60-nucleotide insertion (GB3 Insert), while other genotypes acquired substitutions upon both population growth and decrease, thus possibly reflecting a role for immune selected epitopes in linkage to the traced substitution sites that may have important relevance for vaccine design. Analysis evidenced the co-circulation and predominance of distinct HRSV genotypes in Brazil and suggested a year-round presence of the virus. In Brazil, GA2 and GA5 were the main culprits of HRSV outbreaks until recently, when the GB3 Insert became highly prevalent. Using Bayesian methods, we determined the dispersal patterns of genotypes through several inferred migratory routes. Conclusions/Significance: Genotypes spread across continents and between neighboring areas. Crucially, genotypes also remained at any given region for extended periods, independent of seasonal outbreaks possibly maintained by re-infecting the general population.
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In the central nervous system, zinc is released along with glutamate during neurotransmission and, in excess, can promote neuronal death. Experimental studies have shown that metallothioneins I/II (MT-I/II), which chelate free zinc, can affect seizures and reduce neuronal death after status epilepticus. Our aim was to evaluate the expression of MT-I/II in the hippocampus of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Hippocampi from patients with pharmacoresistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) were evaluated for expression of MT-I/II and for neuronal, astroglial, and microglial populations. Compared to control cases, MTLE group displayed widespread increase in MT-I/II expression, astrogliosis and reduced neuronal population. MT-I/II levels did not correlate with any clinical variables, but patients with secondary generalized seizures (SGS) had less MT-I/II than patients without SGS. In conclusion, MT-I/II expression was increased in hippocampi from MTLE patients and our data suggest that it may be associated with different seizure spread patterns.