Electoral Systems and Ethnic Conciliation: A Structured, Focused Analysis of Vote-Pooling in Northern Ireland Elections 1998-2011

This research project examines the role of electoral system rules in affecting the extent of conciliatory behavior and cross-ethnic coalition making in Northern Ireland. It focuses on the role of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in shaping party and voter incentives in a post-conflict divided society. The research uses a structured, focused comparison of the four electoral cycles since the Belfast Agreement of 1998. This enables a systematic examination of each electoral cycle using a common set of criteria focused on conciliation and cross-ethnic coalition making. Whilst preference voting is assumed to benefit moderate candidates, in Northern Ireland centrist and multi-ethnic parties outside of the dominant ethnic communities have received little electoral success. In Northern Ireland the primary effect of STV has not been to encourage inter-communal voting but to facilitate intra-community and intra-party moderation. STV has encouraged the moderation of the historically extreme political parties in each of the ethnic bloc. Patterns across electoral cycles suggest that party elites from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein have moderated their policy positions due to the electoral system rules. Therefore they have pursued lower-preference votes from within their ethnic bloc but in doing so have marginalized parties of a multi-ethnic or non-ethnic orientation.

Military Capabilities: From Pooling & Sharing to a Permanent and Structured Approach. Security Policy Brief No. 37, September 2012

In 2013 the European Council for the first time since long will deal with European defence. An excellent opportunity: to move key Pooling & Sharing projects to the implementation stage in the short term, and to launch a permanent and structured approach to the development of European military capabilities for the long term.

Pooling data for pest management analysis : a Stein-rule approach /

"August 1987"--P. iii.

A data-pooling approach to estimate employment multipliers for small regional economics /

Issued May 1978.

A common contrast pooling rule for suppression within and between the eyes

Recent work has revealed multiple pathways for cross-orientation suppression in cat and human vision. In particular, ipsiocular and interocular pathways appear to assert their influence before binocular summation in human but have different (1) spatial tuning, (2) temporal dependencies, and (3) adaptation after-effects. Here we use mask components that fall outside the excitatory passband of the detecting mechanism to investigate the rules for pooling multiple mask components within these pathways. We measured psychophysical contrast masking functions for vertical 1 cycle/deg sine-wave gratings in the presence of left or right oblique (645 deg) 3 cycles/deg mask gratings with contrast C%, or a plaid made from their sum, where each component (i) had contrast 0.5Ci%. Masks and targets were presented to two eyes (binocular), one eye (monoptic), or different eyes (dichoptic). Binocular-masking functions superimposed when plotted against C, but in the monoptic and dichoptic conditions, the grating produced slightly more suppression than the plaid when Ci $ 16%. We tested contrast gain control models involving two types of contrast combination on the denominator: (1) spatial pooling of the mask after a local nonlinearity (to calculate either root mean square contrast or energy) and (2) "linear suppression" (Holmes & Meese, 2004, Journal of Vision 4, 1080–1089), involving the linear sum of the mask component contrasts. Monoptic and dichoptic masking were typically better fit by the spatial pooling models, but binocular masking was not: it demanded strict linear summation of the Michelson contrast across mask orientation. Another scheme, in which suppressive pooling followed compressive contrast responses to the mask components (e.g., oriented cortical cells), was ruled out by all of our data. We conclude that the different processes that underlie monoptic and dichoptic masking use the same type of contrast pooling within their respective suppressive fields, but the effects do not sum to predict the binocular case.

Pooling and suppression in human spatial vision

A distinct feature of several recent models of contrast masking is that detecting mechanisms are divisively inhibited by a broadly tuned ‘gain pool’ of narrow-band spatial pattern mechanisms. The contrast gain control provided by this ‘cross-channel’ architecture achieves contrast normalisation of early pattern mechanisms, which is important for keeping them within the non-saturating part of their biological operating characteristic. These models superseded earlier ‘within-channel’ models, which had supposed that masking arose from direct stimulation of the detecting mechanism by the mask. To reveal the extent of masking, I measured the levels produced with large ranges of pattern spatial relationships that have not been explored before. Substantial interactions between channels tuned to different orientations and spatial frequencies were found. Differences in the masking levels produced with single and multiple component mask patterns provided insights into the summation rules within the gain pool. A widely used cross-channel masking model was tested on these data and was found to perform poorly. The model was developed and a version in which linear summation was allowed between all components within the gain pool but with the exception of the self-suppressing route typically provided the best account of the data. Subsequently, an adaptation paradigm was used to probe the processes underlying pooled responses in masking. This delivered less insight into the pooling than the other studies and areas were identified that require investigation for a new unifying model of masking and adaptation. In further experiments, levels of cross-channel masking were found to be greatly influenced by the spatio-temporal tuning of the channels involved. Old masking experiments and ideas relying on within-channel models were re-elevated in terms of contemporary cross-channel models (e.g. estimations of channel bandwidths from orientation masking functions) and this led to different conclusions than those originally arrived at. The investigation of effects with spatio-temporally superimposed patterns is focussed upon throughout this work, though it is shown how these enquiries might be extended to investigate effects across spatial and temporal position.

Measuring the spatial extent of texture pooling using reverse correlation

The local image representation produced by early stages of visual analysis is uninformative regarding spatially extensive textures and surfaces. We know little about the cortical algorithm used to combine local information over space, and still less about the area over which it can operate. But such operations are vital to support perception of real-world objects and scenes. Here, we deploy a novel reverse-correlation technique to measure the extent of spatial pooling for target regions of different areas placed either in the central visual field, or more peripherally. Stimuli were large arrays of micropatterns, with their contrasts perturbed individually on an interval-by-interval basis. By comparing trial-by-trial observer responses with the predictions of computational models, we show that substantial regions (up to 13 carrier cycles) of a stimulus can be monitored in parallel by summing contrast over area. This summing strategy is very different from the more widely assumed signal selection strategy (a MAX operation), and suggests that neural mechanisms representing extensive visual textures can be recruited by attention. We also demonstrate that template resolution is much less precise in the parafovea than in the fovea, consistent with recent accounts of crowding. © 2014 The Authors.

How much is corporate cash-pooling worth? Modelling and simulation

The paper analyzes a special corporate banking product, the so called cash-pool, which gained remarkable popularity in the recent years as firms try to centralize and manage their liquidity more efficiently. The novelty of this paper is the formalization of a valuation model which can serve as a basis for a Monte Carlo simulation to assess the most important benefits of the firms arising from the pooling of their cash holdings. The literature emphasizes several benefits of cash-pooling such as interest rate savings, economy of scale and reduced cash-flow volatility. The presented model focuses on the interest rate savings complemented with a new aspect: the reduced counterparty risk toward the bank. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the value of a cash-pool is higher in case of firms with large, diverse and volatile cash-flows having less access to the capital markets especially if the partner bank is risky and offers a high interest spread. It is also shown that cash-pooling is not the privilege of large multinational firms any more as the initial direct costs can be easily regained within a year even in the case of SMEs.

Do R&D strategies in high-tech sectors differ from those in low-tech sectors? An alternative approach to testing the pooling assumption

Most studies investigating the determinants of R&D investment consider pooled estimates. However, if the parameters are heterogeneous, pooled coefficients may not provide reliable estimates of individual industry effects. Hence pooled parameters may conceal valuable information that may help target government tools more efficiently across heterogeneous industries. There is little evidence to date on the decomposition of the determinants of R&D investment by industry. Moreover, the existing work does not distinguish between those R&D determinants for which pooling may be valid and those for which it is not. In this paper, we test the pooling assumption for a panel of manufacturing industries and find that pooling is valid only for output fluctuations, adjustment costs and interest rates. Implementing the test results into our model, we find government funding is significant only for low-tech R&D. Foreign R&D and skilled labour matter only in high-tech sectors. These results suggest important implications for R&D policy.

Pooling Restaurant Reservations to Increase Service Efficiency

This paper examines whether restaurant reservations should be locked to specific tables at the time the reservation is made, or whether the reservations should be pooled and assigned to tables in real-time. In two motivating studies, we find that there is a lack of consensus in the restaurant industry on handling reservations. Contrary to what might be expected based on research that shows the benefits of resource pooling in other contexts, a survey of 425 restaurants indicated that over 80% lock reservations to tables. In two simulation studies, we determine that pooling reservations enables a 15-minute reduction in table turn times more than 15% of the time, which consequently increases service efficiency and enables a restaurant to serve more customers during peak periods. Pooling had the most consistent advantage with higher customer service levels, with larger restaurants, with customers who arrive late, and with larger variation in customer arrival time.

Concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in matched samples of human milk, dust and indoor air

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are lipophilic, persistent pollutants found worldwide in environmental and human samples. Exposure pathways for PBDEs remain unclear but may include food, air and dust. The aim of this study was to conduct an integrated assessment of PBDE exposure and human body burden using 10 matched samples of human milk, indoor air and dust collected in 2007–2008 in Brisbane, Australia. In addition, temporal analysis was investigated comparing the results of the current study with PBDE concentrations in human milk collected in 2002–2003 from the same region. PBDEs were detected in all matrices and the median concentrations of BDEs -47 and -209 in human milk, air and dust were: 4.2 and 0.3 ng/g lipid; 25 and 7.8 pg/m3; and 56 and 291 ng/g dust, respectively. Significant correlations were observed between the concentrations of BDE-99 in air and human milk (r = 0.661, p = 0.038) and BDE-153 in dust and BDE-183 in human milk (r = 0.697, p = 0.025). These correlations do not suggest causal relationships — there is no hypothesis that can be offered to explain why BDE-153 in dust and BDE-183 in milk are correlated. The fact that so few correlations were found in the data could be a function of the small sample size, or because additional factors, such as sources of exposure not considered or measured in the study, might be important in explaining exposure to PBDEs. There was a slight decrease in PBDE concentrations from 2002–2003 to 2007–2008 but this may be due to sampling and analytical differences. Overall, average PBDE concentrations from these individual samples were similar to results from pooled human milk collected in Brisbane in 2002–2003 indicating that pooling may be an efficient, cost-effective strategy of assessing PBDE concentrations on a population basis. The results of this study were used to estimate an infant's daily PBDE intake via inhalation, dust ingestion and human milk consumption. Differences in PBDE intake of individual congeners from the different matrices were observed. Specifically, as the level of bromination increased, the contribution of PBDE intake decreased via human milk and increased via dust. As the impacts of the ban of the lower brominated (penta- and octa-BDE) products become evident, an increased use of the higher brominated deca-BDE product may result in dust making a greater contribution to infant exposure than it does currently. To better understand human body burden, further research is required into the sources and exposure pathways of PBDEs and metabolic differences influencing an individual's response to exposure. In addition, temporal trend analysis is necessary with continued monitoring of PBDEs in the human population as well as in the suggested exposure matrices of food, dust and air.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Biologically inspired visual landmark processing for simultaneous localization and mapping

This paper illustrates a method for finding useful visual landmarks for performing simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). The method is based loosely on biological principles, using layers of filtering and pooling to create learned templates that correspond to different views of the environment. Rather than using a set of landmarks and reporting range and bearing to the landmark, this system maps views to poses. The challenge is to produce a system that produces the same view for small changes in robot pose, but provides different views for larger changes in pose. The method has been developed to interface with the RatSLAM system, a biologically inspired method of SLAM. The paper describes the method of learning and recalling visual landmarks in detail, and shows the performance of the visual system in real robot tests.