A mérsékelt iszlamista mozgalmak szerepe az "arab tavaszt" követő politikai átmenetben (The Role of Moderate Islamist Movements in the Political Transition Following the Arab Spring)

Up to January 2011 authoritarian political regimes in the Middle East had widely been considered stable due to the armed forces, the underdeveloped political institutions, the economic embeddedness of the regimes, the neo-patrimonial structure of the Arab societies and, eventually the characteristics of Islam. Middle Eastern political systems are often considered to belong to a special sub-group of non-democratic regimes called “liberalized autocracies”. The 2011 events show that there is a new, as yet non-defined political structure emerging. Although there are different interpretations of the developments, there is a consensus on the determinant role of the Islamist organizations in the development of the new political structure. The results of the Egyptian and Tunisian parliamentary elections show that the secular political parties could not attract the public, while in Tunisia the long forbidden Hizb an-Nahda could form a government. In Egypt Hizb al-Hurriya established by the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011 won almost half of the parliamentary mandates, and to a great surprise, the Salafi Hizb an-Nour also received 24.3% of the votes. On the basis of the above developments the thesis of the Islamist re-organization of the Middle East, i.e. of a new wave of Islamism was elaborated, according to which the main political winners of the revolts in the Arab countries are the Islamist organizations, which could step in and fill in the political vacuum. While some speak of an Islamist autumn or Islamist winter as the result of the Arab Spring, others prefer the term Islamic revolutions.

Convergence/Divergence: Party political discourse in Northern Ireland's transition from conflict

This paper illuminates the role of political language in a peace process through analysing the discourse used by political parties in Northern Ireland. What matters, it seems, is not whether party discourses converge or diverge but rather how, and in what ways, they do so. In the case of Northern Ireland, there remains strong divergence between discourses regarding the ethos of unionist and nationalist parties. As a consequence, core definitions of identity, culture, norms and principle remain common grounds for competition within nationalism and unionism. There has, however, been a significant shift towards convergence between unionist and nationalist parties in their discourses on power and governance, specifically among the now predominant (hardline) and the smaller (moderate) parties. The argument thus elaborated is that political transition from conflict need not necessarily entail the creation of a “shared discourse” between all parties. Indeed, points of divergence between parties’ discourses of power and ethos are as important for a healthy post-conflict democratic environment as the elements of convergence between them.

‘The Judiciary and Political Change in Africa: Developing Transitional Jurisprudence in Nigeria’

At a time of increased evaluations of law, human rights, and the rise of judicial power all over the globe, the work of most African judiciaries and the principles of the jurisprudence they espouse in promoting social justice remain an unlikely focus of comparative legal scholarship. This ought not to be so in view of the considerable activities of the courts on the continent in the dawn of the third wave of democratization. This article explores the work of the Nigerian Supreme Court in the political transition to democracy since 1999. Utilizing insights from the work of Ruti Teitel, it attempts to outline some of the major constitutional and extraconstitutional principles adopted by the Court in mediating intergovernmental contestations in the turbulent transition away from almost three decades of authoritarian military rule. It emerges that the task of fostering social transformation through the “weakest” branch seriously tasks the institutional integrity of the judiciary.

'Democratic Transition, Judicial Accountability and Judicialisation of Politics in Africa: The Nigerian Experience'

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the growing incidence of judicialisation of politics in Nigeria’s democratisation experience against the backdrop of questionable judicial accountability. Design/methodology/approach – The article draws on legal and political theory as well as comparative law perspectives. Findings – The judiciary faces a daunting task in deepening democracy and (re) instituting the rule of law. The formidable challenges derive in part from structural problems within the judiciary, deficient accountability credentials and the complexities of a troubled transition. Practical implications – Effective judicial mediation of political transition requires a transformed and accountable judiciary. Originality/value – The article calls attention to the need for judicial accountability as a cardinal and integral part of political transitions. Keywords Democracy, Politics, Law, Nigeria, Africa Paper type Viewpoint

Foreign Direct Investment and Political Uncertainty

Recent developments in the general equilibrium theory of multinationals emphasize the importance of multilateral considerations. Yet, existing explanations and corresponding estimations of FDI patterns have largely limited political and institutional investment impediments to a bilateral framework. Through the application of spatial econometric techniques, I demonstrate that the presence of both domestic and regional political uncertainty generate real options effects that lead to the delay or redirection of foreign direct investment. The magnitude and direction of these effects is conditional upon the host country regime type and the predominant multinational integration strategies in the region. Comparing these results with FDI of U.S. origin, I find evidence for divergent investment behavior by U.S. multinationals during regime changes in partner countries. Additionally, I find no evidence that multinationals from developing countries are more likely to complete cross-border deals in environments characterized by greater political risk or political uncertainty.

Media in a transitioning Nepal : does expansion translate to pluralism?

Characterized by socio-political changes, instability and conflict since 1990, Nepal is a nation in political transition. The media play a significant role in influencing this transition. Since 1990, various global and local factors have contributed to an unprecedented growth in the mass media in Nepal. This article analyses the expansion in the media against indicators of media pluralism to ask whether this expansion, within a difficult political transition, translates to media pluralism. The article draws upon qualitative research to assess the media market, the resources available for the media, diversity in media ownership and products, competition and ethics and policy and regulatory provisions within a struggling economy and an environment of poor law and order.

Democracia e Estado de Direito nas transições políticas: críticas aos modelos de justiça de transição e uma análise do caso brasileiro

Além dos elementos que integram a estrutura dos processos de democratização, este trabalho aborda o conjunto de medidas existentes para lidar com os problemas resultantes dos períodos de transição política, a partir da análise crítica dos modelos utilizados no curso da genealogia da justiça de transição. Na parte dedicada à crítica ao modelo de transição negociada, verificamos que, durante a segunda fase da genealogia, os estudos sobre os processos de transição adotaram como parâmetro de avaliação uma noção procedimental e elitista de democracia. Já na crítica aos modelos de primeira e terceira fases, observamos uma ênfase excessiva em um modelo retributivo de justiça de transição, que é encarado como ideal absoluto. Por fim, aplicamos as conclusões teóricas parciais a um estudo de caso, debruçando-nos sobre os mecanismos de justiça de transição manejados no Brasil.

Old truths and new politics:Does truth commission 'publicness' impact democratization?

This article analyzes the relationship between truth and politics by asking whether the 'publicness' of a truth commission - defined by whether it has public hearings, releases a public report, and names perpetrators - contributes to democratization. The article reviews scholarship relevant to the potential democratizing effects of truth commissions and derives mechanisms that help explain this relationship. Work from the transitional justice field as well as democratization and political transition more generally is considered. Using a newly-constructed Truth Commission Publicness Dataset (TCPD), the analysis finds that even after statistically controlling for initial levels of democracy, democratic trends in the years prior to a commission, level of wealth, amnesties and/or trials, the influence of the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and different cutoff points for measuring democratization across a number of models, more publicness predicts higher levels of democracy years after the commission has finished its work. The more public a truth commission is, the more it will contribute to democratization. The finding that more public truth commissions are associated with higher levels of democratization indicates particular strategies that policymakers, donors, and civil society activists may take to improve prospects for democracy in a country planning a truth commission in the wake of violence and/or government abuse. © The Author(s) 2012.

Monsenhor Airosa - pedagogo - empresário : história do colégio de regeneração de Braga : (1869-1931)

Tese de doutoramento, Educação (História da Educação), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2015

Churchill as Chancellor of the Exchequer (1924–9) and the return to the gold standard

The general election of 29 October 1924 saw Winston Churchill return to Parliament as Constitutionalist MP for Epping after two years in the political wilderness. It also saw Stanley Baldwin swept back to Number 10 on a Conservative landslide. Speculation about whether Baldwin would cement Churchill’s drift from the Liberal fold by offering him office surfaced during the election campaign. Churchill nevertheless thought ‘it very unlikely that I shall be invited to join the Government, as owing to the size of the majority it will probably be composed only of impeccable Conservatives’. [ 1 ] Because of his anti-socialist credentials, his ability to reassure wavering Liberals through his opposition to protectionism – dropped by Baldwin after its rejection in the 1923 general election – and concern he could prove a rallying point for backbench malcontents, there was however much to commend giving Churchill a post. To his surprise, Baldwin offered Churchill the long-coveted office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, briefly held by his father before his ill-conceived resignation in 1887. Having arranged a meeting with his Labour predecessor, Philip Snowden, about outstanding business the new Chancellor set to work. Marking his political transition, a few days later Churchill resigned from the National Liberal Club.

Narrativas da transição: um olhar sobre a transferência de poderes de Macau vista pelo jornal Ponto Final: 1996-2001

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Jornalismo.

The role of European Union integration in post-communist democratization in Bulgaria and Macedonia

Cette recherche porte sur la dimension interprétative de l'intégration européenne et sur son rôle dans la démocratisation au sein des pays postcommunistes. Je focalise mon attention sur la signification pour les gens desdits pays que revêtent la participation politique, la compétence politique, et l’action collective. Cette signification prend forme selon des circonstances spécifiques, agencées par les relations de pouvoir asymétriques avec l’Union européenne (UE). J’examine la littérature sur le rôle de l'intégration européenne dans la démocratisation des pays postcommunistes et je distingue deux paradigmes théoriques principaux : un premier qui met l'accent sur le processus institutionnel, l’autre sur le processus instrumental stratégique. Au sein de ces deux approches, je présente différents auteurs qui voient l'UE soit comme un facteur pro-démocratique, soit comme un facteur antidémocratique dans le contexte postcommuniste de transition politique. Cette recherche ne suit pas théoriquement et méthodologiquement les études contenues dans la revue de la littérature. Plutôt, elle s’appuie sur un modèle théorique inspiré des recherches de McFalls sur la réunification culturelle allemande après 1989. Ce modèle, sans négliger les approches institutionnelles et stratégiques, met l’accent sur d'autres écoles théoriques, interprétatives et constructivistes. Mes conclusions se basent sur les résultats de séjours d'étude dans deux pays postcommunistes : la Bulgarie, membre de l'UE depuis 2007, et la Macédoine, pays-candidat. J’ai recours à des méthodes qualitatives et à des techniques ethnographiques qui triangulent des résultats puisés à des sources multiples et variées pour exposer des trajectoires dynamiques de changement culturel influencées par l'intégration européenne. Les conclusions montrent sous quelles conditions les idéaux-types de changement politique conventionnels, soit institutionnel ou stratégique, représentent des modèles utiles. Je présente aussi leurs limitations. Ma conclusion principale est que l'intégration européenne représente un phénomène complexe dans le monde des significations. C’est un facteur qui est simultanément un amplificateur et un inhibiteur de la culture politique démocratique. Les gens créent des sous-cultures différentes où des interprétations multiples du processus d'intégration européenne mènent à des effets dissemblables sur la participation politique, la compétence et l’action collective. La conversation discursive entre les gens qui composent de telles sous-cultures distinctes peut produire des effets divergents au niveau national. Cette recherche n’est pas une analyse de l’UE comme mécanisme institutionnel ; elle ne pose ainsi pas l’UE comme une institution qui détermine directement le processus de démocratisation postcommuniste. Plutôt, elle s’intéresse au processus d’intégration européenne en tant qu’interaction qui affecte la culture politique au sein des pays postcommunistes, et à la manière dont cette dernière peut agir sur le processus de démocratisation. Mon point d’intérêt central n’est donc pas l’européanisation ou le processus de devenir « comme l’Europe », à moins que l’européanisation ne devienne une composante de la culture politique avec des conséquences sur le comportement politique des acteurs.

El derecho internacional de los derechos humanos: ¿límite o elemento constitutivo de la democracia? –A propósito de la transición uruguaya a la democracia–

La idea de la voluntad del pueblo como expresión de la soberanía es propia de la teoríapolítica que busca explicar el origen del Estado moderno liberal. La compatibilidad entre lalibertad individual de sujetos considerados iguales y el ejercicio del poder político requierepensar a los ciudadanos como sujetos libres, y esto se logra cuando el poder que se ejercesobre ellos se concibe como un poder que nace solo de los propios ciudadanos. En laconcepción individualista de la democracia, los derechos de los individuos son anteriores ytienen primacía sobre la pertenencia a la sociedad. Sin embargo, no es necesario asumir estaconcepción para defender esa primacía. Se la puede defender solo respecto de las decisionesde la sociedad. Desde esta posición, es posible concebir el conflicto entre soberanía populary derechos humanos. La transición política uruguaya ejemplifica esa posibilidad. A través de un referéndum y un plebiscito convocados por la propia sociedad, la mayoría avaló laLey de Caducidad de la Pretensión Punitiva del Estado, que impide los juicios por los gravescrímenes cometidos durante la dictadura. La Corte idh declaró, en el 2011, que esa decisiónpopular violaba la cadh y que la soberanía popular está sujeta a los límites que le imponenlos derechos humanos. Los análisis de esta decisión se han centrado en la obligación del Estadode acatarla, pero no en lo que ella significa para la comprensión contemporánea de lademocracia. Eso es lo que pretendo hacer en este artículo, a través de dos tesis: el conflictose mantiene si el concepto de democracia es un concepto procedimental; y la Corte idhofrece un concepto que abre un camino a la solución del conflicto.

"Os bárbaros estão chegando": o processo de democratização do governo Richa no Paraná

O presente trabalho de pesquisa acadêmica abrange a análise da conjuntura política do processo de transição democrática no Brasil e no Paraná, ocorrida no final da década de 1970 e inícios dos anos 80. No capítulo introdutório examino os elementos teórico-metodológicos, que são as categorias de análise que utilizo no estudo da situação concreta brasileira, como contexto amplo, e da conjuntura das eleiçôes de 1982 e do governo de José Richa no Paraná. Era necessário examinar a concepçâo "ampliada" de Estado, o conceito de estrutura e de superestrutura do bloco histórico e a concepção da vertente da democracia liberal e da vertente da democracia popular, no enfoque da literatura do materialismo histórico-dialético, de autores clássicos e modernos. No segundo capítulo examino o projeto de transição democrática dos generais presidentes Geisel e Figueiredo: um plano dos militares e das elites brasileiras para salvar as elites no poder, na travessia pelo alto. O projeto não ia além da legitimação do regime e do modelo econômico pela passagem do governo militar aos civis, por um processo eleitoral duvidoso. No Paraná, objetivo principal da pesquisa, examino o projeto liberal do governo do PMDB de Richa, desde a organizaçâo partidária, a elaboraçâo das diretrizes de governo, a campanha eleitoral, a participaçâo de intelectuais de ponta na campanha, as alianças do PMDB com os setores populares da sociedade até a composição e a "direitização" do governo. "OS BÁRBAROS ESTÃO CHEGANDO", título principal da dissertação, era a denominação que a aristocracia (elite) curitibana atribuiu a José Richa, quando o mesmo ganhou as eleições ao governo do Paraná, pelo fato de ser do interior do Estado e não fazer parte do mundo civilizado da Curitiba cosmopolita. No terceiro capítulo examino a questão da democratização da escola pública do Estado pela instituição das eleições para diretor e vice-diretor da escola, pelos professores, servidores, alunos e pais de alunos. Digo que a democracia vai além do decreto governamental que estabelece as eleições. Digo ainda que o discurso na prática é outro, no caso do governo Richa e da educação. A questão básica da pesquisa é trabalhar a idéia de que a educação é um campo de disputas e confrontos de classes pela hegemonia do poder, em que a classe dominante luta para manter-se no poder como classe dirigente e as classes subalternas ora se mantém aliadas e como classes auxiliares à classe dominante, ora consentem e raras vezes rebelam-se contra a dominaçâo da classe dirigente.