Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.

Prognostic Significance of TRAIL Signaling Molecules in Stage II and III Colorectal Cancer

Purpose: We previously found that cellular FLICE-inhibitory protein (c-FLIP), caspase 8, and tumor necrosis factor–related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) receptor 2 (DR5) are major regulators of cell viability and chemotherapy-induced apoptosis in colorectal cancer. In this study, we determined the prognostic significance of c-FLIP, caspase 8, TRAIL and DR5 expression in tissues from patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer.

Experimental Design: Tissue microarrays were constructed from matched normal and tumor tissue derived from patients (n = 253) enrolled in a phase III trial of adjuvant 5-fluorouracil–based chemotherapy versus postoperative observation alone. TRAIL, DR5, caspase 8, and c-FLIP expression levels were determined by immunohistochemistry.

Results: Colorectal tumors displayed significantly higher expression levels of c-FLIP (P < 0.001), caspase 8 (P = 0.01), and DR5 (P < 0.001), but lower levels of TRAIL (P < 0.001) compared with matched normal tissue. In univariate analysis, higher TRAIL expression in the tumor was associated with worse overall survival (P = 0.026), with a trend to decreased relapse-free survival (RFS; P = 0.06), and higher tumor c-FLIP expression was associated with a significantly decreased RFS (P = 0.015). Using multivariate predictive modeling for RFS in all patients and including all biomarkers, age, treatment, and stage, we found that the model was significant when the mean tumor c-FLIP expression score and disease stage were included (P < 0.001). As regards overall survival, the overall model was predictive when both TRAIL expression and disease stage were included (P < 0.001).

Conclusions: High c-FLIP and TRAIL expression may be independent adverse prognostic markers in stage II and III colorectal cancer and might identify patients most at risk of relapse.

Analysis of panoramio photo tags in order to extract land use information

In the recent past, hardly anyone could predict this course of GIS development. GIS is moving from desktop to cloud. Web 2.0 enabled people to input data into web. These data are becoming increasingly geolocated. Big amounts of data formed something that is called "Big Data". Scientists still don't know how to deal with it completely. Different Data Mining tools are used for trying to extract some useful information from this Big Data. In our study, we also deal with one part of these data - User Generated Geographic Content (UGGC). The Panoramio initiative allows people to upload photos and describe them with tags. These photos are geolocated, which means that they have exact location on the Earth's surface according to a certain spatial reference system. By using Data Mining tools, we are trying to answer if it is possible to extract land use information from Panoramio photo tags. Also, we tried to answer to what extent this information could be accurate. At the end, we compared different Data Mining methods in order to distinguish which one has the most suited performances for this kind of data, which is text. Our answers are quite encouraging. With more than 70% of accuracy, we proved that extracting land use information is possible to some extent. Also, we found Memory Based Reasoning (MBR) method the most suitable method for this kind of data in all cases.

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Are we predicting the actual or apparent distribution of temperate marine fishes?

Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions.

Does implicit motor imagery ability predict reaching correction efficiency? A test of recent models of human motor control

Neurocomputational models of reaching indicate that efficient purposive correction of movement midflight (e.g., online control) depends on one's ability to generate and monitor an accurate internal (neural) movement representation. In the first study to test this empirically, the authors investigated the relationship between healthy young adults’ implicit motor imagery performance and their capacity to correct their reaching trajectory. As expected, after controlling for general reaching speed, hierarchical regression demonstrated that imagery ability was a significant predictor of hand correction speed; that is, faster and more accurate imagery performance associated with faster corrections to reaching following target displacement at movement onset. They argue that these findings provide preliminary support for the view that a link exists between an individual's ability to represent movement mentally and correct movement online efficiently.

Regressão logística aplicada na análise espacial de dados arqueológicos

Pós-graduação em Ciências Cartográficas - FCT

Uso de geotecnologias na análise temporal dos impactos da urbanização na sub-bacia do Córrego Sem Nome em Ilha Solteira/SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Modelagem de nicho ecológico de anuros da Mata Atlântica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelizzazione spazio-temporale delle dinamiche di uso del suolo ed analisi comparativa di differenti approcci predittivi. Uso integrato di SIG e telerilevamento nello studio dei processi di deforestazione nella regione La Joyanca in Peten, Guatemala

L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacità di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Petén, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puó essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso del suolo. Comprendere e quantificare queste differenze permette una migliore approssimazione del sistema reale; é inoltre necessario integrare tutti i parametri fisici e socio-economici, per una rappresentazione più completa della complessità dell’impatto antropico. Data l’assenza di informazioni dettagliate sull’area di studio, quasi tutti i dati sono stati ricavati dall’elaborazione di 11 immagini ETM+, TM e SPOT; abbiamo poi realizzato un’analisi multitemporale dei cambi uso del suolo passati e costruito l’input per alimentare i modelli predittivi. I dati del 1998 e 2000 sono stati usati per la fase di calibrazione per simulare i cambiamenti nella copertura terrestre del 2003, scelta come data di riferimento per la validazione dei risultati. Quest’ultima permette di evidenziare le qualità ed i limiti per ogni modello nelle differenti sub-regioni.

Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

The behaviour of incompatible elements during hydrous melting of metasomatized peridotite at 4–6 GPa and 1000 °C–1200 °C

Trace element behavior during hydrous melting of a metasomatized garnet–peridotite was examined at pressures of 4–6 GPa and temperatures of 1000 °C–1200 °C, conditions appropriate for fluid penetrating the mantle wedge atop the subducting slab. Experiments were performed in a rocking multi-anvil apparatus using a diamond-trap setup. The compositions of the fluid and melt phases were measured using the cryogenic LA-ICP-MS technique. The water-saturated solidus of the K-lherzolite composition is located between 900 °C and 1000 °C at 4 GPa and between 1000 °C and 1100 °C at 5 and 6 GPa. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and clinopyroxene reveal an asymmetric MREE trough with a minimum at Dy. The clinopyroxene in equilibrium with aqueous fluids is characterized by DUfluid–cpx > DThfluid–cpx while DUmelt–cpx tends to be similar to DThmelt–cpx. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and garnet reveal very strong light to heavy REE fractionation, DLa/DLu from 95 (hydrous melt) to 1600 (aqueous fluid). The LILE are highly incompatible with partition coefficients > 50. The behavior of HFSE are decoupled, with DZr,Hf close to 1 while DNb,Ta > 10. Garnet is characterized by DUmelt/fluid–garnet < DThmelt/fluid–garnet. A comparison of our experimental partitioning results for trivalent cations as well as the results from the literature and the calculations carried out using the lattice strain model adapted to the presence of water in the bulk system indicates that H2O in the fluid or melt phase has a prominent effect on trace element partitioning. Garnet in mantle rocks in equilibrium with an aqueous fluid is characterized by significantly higher Do(3 +) for REE in the X site of the garnet compared with the partitioning values of the optimal cation in garnet in equilibrium with hydrous melts. Our data show for the first time that the change in the nature of the mobile phase (fluid vs. melt) does affect the affinities of trace elements into the garnet crystal at conditions below the second critical endpoint of the system. The same also applies for clinopyroxene, although this is less clear. Consequently, our new data allow for refinements in predictive modeling of element transfer from the slab to the mantle wedge and of possible compositions of metasomatized mantle that sources OIB magmatism.

Uso de modelagem de nicho fundamental na avaliação do padrão de distribuição geográfica de espécies vegetais

Atualmente vêm sendo desenvolvidas e utilizadas várias técnicas de modelagem de distribuição geográfica de espécies com os mais variados objetivos. Algumas dessas técnicas envolvem modelagem baseada em análise ambiental, nas quais os algoritmos procuram por condições ambientais semelhantes àquelas onde as espécies foram encontradas, resultando em áreas potenciais onde as condições ambientais seriam propícias ao desenvolvimento dessas espécies. O presente estudo trata do uso da modelagem preditiva de distribuição geográfica, através da utilização de algoritmo genético e algoritmo de distância, de espécies como ferramenta para a conservação de espécies vegetais, em três situações distintas: modelagem da distribuição do bioma cerrado no estado de São Paulo; previsão da ocorrência de espécies arbóreas visando à restauração da cobertura vegetal na bacia do Médio Paranapanema e modelagem da distribuição de espécies ameaçadas de extinção (Byrsonima subterranea). A metodologia empregada e os resultados obtidos foram considerados satisfatórios para a geração de modelos de distribuição geográfica de espécies vegetais, baseados em dados abióticos, para as regiões de estudo. A eficácia do modelo em predizer a ocorrência de espécies do cerrado é maior se forem utilizados apenas pontos de amostragem com fisionomias de cerrado, excluindo-se áreas de transição. Para minimizar problemas decorrentes da falta de convergência do algoritmo utilizado GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production), foram gerados 100 modelos para cada espécie modelada. O uso de modelagem pode auxiliar no entendimento dos padrões de distribuição de um bioma ou ecossistema em uma análise regional e local.