Aplicación de técnicas de inteligencia artificial a la predicción de contaminantes atmosféricos

Abstract Air pollution is a big threat and a phenomenon that has a specific impact on human health, in addition, changes that occur in the chemical composition of the atmosphere can change the weather and cause acid rain or ozone destruction. Those are phenomena of global importance. The World Health Organization (WHO) considerates air pollution as one of the most important global priorities. Salamanca, Gto., Mexico has been ranked as one of the most polluted cities in this country. The industry of the area led to a major economic development and rapid population growth in the second half of the twentieth century. The impact in the air quality is important and significant efforts have been made to measure the concentrations of pollutants. The main pollution sources are locally based plants in the chemical and power generation sectors. The registered concerning pollutants are Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) and particles on the order of ∼10 micrometers or less (PM10). The prediction in the concentration of those pollutants can be a powerful tool in order to take preventive measures such as the reduction of emissions and alerting the affected population. In this PhD thesis we propose a model to predict concentrations of pollutants SO2 and PM10 for each monitoring booth in the Atmospheric Monitoring Network Salamanca (REDMAS - for its spanish acronym). The proposed models consider the use of meteorological variables as factors influencing the concentration of pollutants. The information used along this work is the current real data from REDMAS. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms are used. The type of ANN used is the Multilayer Perceptron with a hidden layer, using separate structures for the prediction of each pollutant. The meteorological variables used for prediction were: Wind Direction (WD), wind speed (WS), Temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). Clustering algorithms, K-means and Fuzzy C-means, are used to find relationships between air pollutants and weather variables under consideration, which are added as input of the RNA. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the prediction of the pollutants. The results of the model proposed in this work are compared with the results of a multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The evaluation of the prediction is calculated with the mean absolute error, the root mean square error, the correlation coefficient and the index of agreement. The results show the importance of meteorological variables in the prediction of the concentration of the pollutants SO2 and PM10 in the city of Salamanca, Gto., Mexico. The results show that the proposed model perform better than multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The models implemented for each monitoring booth have the ability to make predictions of air quality that can be used in a system of real-time forecasting and human health impact analysis. Among the main results of the development of this thesis we can cite: A model based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms for prediction with a hour ahead of the concentration of each pollutant (SO2 and PM10) is proposed. A different model was designed for each pollutant and for each of the three monitoring booths of the REDMAS. A model to predict the average of pollutant concentration in the next 24 hours of pollutants SO2 and PM10 is proposed, based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms. Model was designed for each booth of the REDMAS and each pollutant separately. Resumen La contaminación atmosférica es una amenaza aguda, constituye un fenómeno que tiene particular incidencia sobre la salud del hombre. Los cambios que se producen en la composición química de la atmósfera pueden cambiar el clima, producir lluvia ácida o destruir el ozono, fenómenos todos ellos de una gran importancia global. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) considera la contaminación atmosférica como una de las más importantes prioridades mundiales. Salamanca, Gto., México; ha sido catalogada como una de las ciudades más contaminadas en este país. La industria de la zona propició un importante desarrollo económico y un crecimiento acelerado de la población en la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Las afectaciones en el aire son graves y se han hecho importantes esfuerzos por medir las concentraciones de los contaminantes. Las principales fuentes de contaminación son fuentes fijas como industrias químicas y de generación eléctrica. Los contaminantes que se han registrado como preocupantes son el Bióxido de Azufre (SO2) y las Partículas Menores a 10 micrómetros (PM10). La predicción de las concentraciones de estos contaminantes puede ser una potente herramienta que permita tomar medidas preventivas como reducción de emisiones a la atmósfera y alertar a la población afectada. En la presente tesis doctoral se propone un modelo de predicción de concentraci ón de los contaminantes más críticos SO2 y PM10 para cada caseta de monitorización de la Red de Monitorización Atmosférica de Salamanca (REDMAS). Los modelos propuestos plantean el uso de las variables meteorol ógicas como factores que influyen en la concentración de los contaminantes. La información utilizada durante el desarrollo de este trabajo corresponde a datos reales obtenidos de la REDMAS. En el Modelo Propuesto (MP) se aplican Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) combinadas con algoritmos de agrupamiento. La RNA utilizada es el Perceptrón Multicapa con una capa oculta, utilizando estructuras independientes para la predicción de cada contaminante. Las variables meteorológicas disponibles para realizar la predicción fueron: Dirección de Viento (DV), Velocidad de Viento (VV), Temperatura (T) y Humedad Relativa (HR). Los algoritmos de agrupamiento K-means y Fuzzy C-means son utilizados para encontrar relaciones existentes entre los contaminantes atmosféricos en estudio y las variables meteorológicas. Dichas relaciones aportan información a las RNA para obtener la predicción de los contaminantes, la cual es agregada como entrada de las RNA. Los resultados del modelo propuesto en este trabajo son comparados con los resultados de una Regresión Lineal Multivariable (RLM) y un Perceptrón Multicapa (MLP). La evaluación de la predicción se realiza con el Error Medio Absoluto, la Raíz del Error Cuadrático Medio, el coeficiente de correlación y el índice de acuerdo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la importancia de las variables meteorológicas en la predicción de la concentración de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 en la ciudad de Salamanca, Gto., México. Los resultados muestran que el MP predice mejor la concentración de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 que los modelos RLM y MLP. Los modelos implementados para cada caseta de monitorizaci ón tienen la capacidad para realizar predicciones de calidad del aire, estos modelos pueden ser implementados en un sistema que permita realizar la predicción en tiempo real y analizar el impacto en la salud de la población. Entre los principales resultados obtenidos del desarrollo de esta tesis podemos citar: Se propone un modelo basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento para la predicción con una hora de anticipaci ón de la concentración de cada contaminante (SO2 y PM10). Se diseñó un modelo diferente para cada contaminante y para cada una de las tres casetas de monitorización de la REDMAS. Se propone un modelo de predicción del promedio de la concentración de las próximas 24 horas de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10, basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento. Se diseñó un modelo para cada caseta de monitorización de la REDMAS y para cada contaminante por separado.

Pollutant concentrations and Meteorological data classification by Neural Networks

This paper present an environmental contingency forecasting tool based on Neural Networks (NN). Forecasting tool analyzes every hour and daily Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) concentrations and Meteorological data time series. Pollutant concentrations and meteorological variables are self-organized applying a Self-organizing Map (SOM) NN in different classes. Classes are used in training phase of a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) classifier to provide an air quality forecast. In this case a time series set obtained from Environmental Monitoring Network (EMN) of the city of Salamanca, Guanajuato, México is used. Results verify the potential of this method versus other statistical classification methods and also variables correlation is solved.

A GUERRA JUSTA NA CRISTIANIZAÇÃO DA AMÉRICA LATINA (1492-1566): ORIGEM DO CONCEITO, DESLOCAMENTOS E RESSIGNIFICAÇÕES

Em 1492, com o objetivo de adquirir riquezas e expansão territorial, os espanhóis chegaram à América Latina. Para tanto, rapidamente implantaram o seu sistema de governo, cultura e religião. Este processo só foi possível por meio da guerra. Para legitimá-la, foi necessário a reelaboração e a inversão de um antigo conceito de guerra e a sua consequente instauração nas terras recém ocupadas. O uso do conceito de Guerra Justa na América Latina, entre os anos1492 a 1566, fundamentava-se na história das conquistas romanas, filosofia de Aristóteles, teologia de Agostinho e Tomás de Aquino, nas leis jurídicas, Escrituras Sagradas e nas armas. Ao ser aplicado nas províncias indígenas, o conceito de Guerra Justa proporcionou efeitos trágicos pela sua violência. Ocorreram mortes de inocentes, invasão das terras, posse das riquezas, escravidão, destruição da cultura e da religião dos indígenas. Diante destes fatores, as divergências e debates tornaram-se inevitáveis. Juan Ginés de Sepúlveda, o autor do Democrates Alter, tratado que hospeda o conceito de Guerra Justa, teve como opositor tanto na Espanha quanto na América Latina, o frei dominicano Bartolomé de Las Casas que lutou a favor dos indígenas frente a injustiça da guerra deflagrada pelos conquistadores espanhóis e da cristianização por meio das armas. Entre esses dois controversistas encontra-se outro teólogo-jurista, catedrático da Universidade de Salamanca, Francisco de Vitoria. Vitoria elaborou o Derecho Natural y de Gentes, obra que concedeu a Sepúlveda e Las Casas argumentos para fundamentar suas doutrinas. A julgar pelos resultados duradouros da conquista, Sepúlveda atingiu seus objetivos. A cristandade foi implantada em substituição às religiões dos nativos e os interesses políticos e econômicos dos conquistadores, entrementes, foram concretizados. Las Casas, por sua vez, ao discordar desse método, propôs, em sua obra, Del único modo de atraer a todos los pueblos a la verdadera religión, uma cristianização pacífica que se conduzisse somente por meio da pregação do evangelho e da fé cristã. Para chegarem a essa posição, ambos os controversistas analisaram as fontes e tradições literárias aristotélica, agostiniana e tomista, em especial. O projeto missionário colonial vislumbrado por Sepúlveda e Las Casas, definiu as duas hermenêuticas eclesiásticas presentes na América Latina que se estenderam até o século XIX quando aportou-se na América uma nova proposta de missão através dos protestantes.

Renta feudal, ejercicio del poder y diferenciación social campesina en el marco del señorío del cabildo salmantino en la Edad Media

El presente trabajo analiza la evolución del señorío eclesiástico en el largo plazo, para sumar al conocimiento de las formas señoriales de la Extremadura leonesa. Consideramos específicamente el caso del cabildo catedralicio salmantino entre los siglos XII y XV. Buscamos demostrar que no poseyó idéntica estructura durante todo el período y que sus transformaciones se explican por una compleja conjunción de variables. Dichas transformaciones incidieron sobre las estructuras sociales del agro, en especial sobre el desarrollo de procesos de diferenciación social campesina. Demostramos que la forma concreta en que se realizaba la renta podía alterar las estructuras sociales de las comunidades y que el desarrollo de las relaciones sociales asalariadas se encontraba muy vinculado a las coyunturas económicas y a las posibilidades y límites de la gestión señorial. Finalmente, ponemos de relieve que la transformación social no siempre fue irreversible y que su consolidación dependió de la incapacidad de los señores de ejercer sus poderes políticos.

Sim! Tenho paralisia cerebral - um estudo de caso

Relatório de Investigação apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Paula Frassinetti para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Educação Pré-Escolar e Ensino do 1º CEB.

EXPRESSIVE ARTS – EMBODYING INCLUSIVE TEACHERS

The Declaration of Salamanca proposes a deep reformulation of educational praxis which has as a main goal to create an environment where all students can enjoy learning, improve and grow in confidence, in a perspective of Inclusive Education. In this sense, it is necessary that teachers acquire scientific and educational skills but, also, development of personal and interpersonal competences that are crucial for a flexible and adequate professional praxis. The concept of competences integrates knowledge, skills, personal values and attitudes that are acquired through work experience and learning by doing. On other side, experiential work is lived through a body in movement. Acknowledging these ideas and considering active methods and expressive arts as valorous contributions to the positive model of inclusive education in this paper, the authors propose the training in Expressive Arts to promote Inclusion but mainly to develop personal and interpersonal competences of teachers to the Inclusion

Reconnaissance for uranium in the Salamanca area, Province of Coquimbo, Chile /

"July 1958."

Unified user experience model enabling a more comprehensive understanding of emotional experience design

Design deals with improving the lives of people. As such interactions with products, interfaces, and systems should facilitate not only usable and practical concerns but also mediate emotionally meaningful experiences. This paper presents an integrated and comprehensive model of experience, labeled 'Unified User Experience Model', covering the most prominent perspectives from across the design field. It is intended to support designers from different disciplines to consider the complexity of user experience. The vision of the model is to support both the analysis of existing products, interfaces, and systems, as well as the development of new designs that take into account this complexity. In essence, we hope the model can enable designers to develop more marketable, appropriate, and enhanced products to improve experiences and ultimately the lives of people.

Salamanca Castanets

The English country dance The Salamanca Castanets was published in Button and Whittaker’s Collection of Country Dances for the Year 1813. It is a captivating tune which utilises country dance figures whilst capturing and maintaining the Spanish exuberance. Its fascinating history still resonates in Tasmania.

Carlos Vega, creador de música escénica para La Salamanca de Ricardo Rojas

Resumen: La finalidad de este trabajo es analizar la tarea que desarrolló Carlos Vega al componer música escénica para el drama La Salamanca de Ricardo Rojas y como aplicó, en función de un espectáculo teatral, los conocimientos adquiridos a través de la labor de investigación etnomusicológica que desarrolló.

Shell midden people in northern Iberia. New data from the mesolithic rock shelter of J3 (Basque Country, Spain)

[EN]In the course of a sondage dug in the rock shelter of J3, in the Jaizkibel mountains (at the north-western tip of Guipúzcoa), the body of a adult man was located buried inside a shell midden. This shell midden had not been disturbed and presented internal stratigraphy features. In any case, the outer edge of the shell midden does show some interesting interdigitation with the adjacent habitational layers, with evidence of different stages of occupation. Within the shell midden itself, under the individual buried there, it was possible to observe layers without any ceramics, whereas the layers covering said individual included ceramic fragments. This individual has been dated to 8,300 BP and therefore corresponds to a Mesolithic context.

Nuevos datos sobre la estela romana de Puebla de Azaba (Ciudad Rodrigo, Salamanca)

[ES] Damos a conocer la forma y el texto completos de la inscripción de referencia con descubrimiento de tres nuevas líneas de texto y elementos decorativos astrales en cabecera semicircular. En estas líneas se encuentran dos "cognomina" indígenas de la zona de los verrones, uno muy abundante ("Arco") y el otro menos frecuente ("Taginus").

Measuring transaction costs of fisheries co-management in San Salvador Island, Philippines

It is generally accepted that co-management systems are more cost-effective than centralized management of natural resources. However, no attempts have been made to empirically verify the transaction costs involved in fisheries co-management. Some estimates of transaction costs of fisheries co-management in San Salvador Island, Philippines, are presented in this paper. These estimates are used to compare the various transaction costs in co-managed and in centrally managed fisheries in San Salvador Island.

The cost of action: CRM investment in the Philippines

Knowing the cost of investment in coastal resources management (CRM) is important especially in understanding the cost of undertaking one and ascertaining whether the outcomes are worth the money spent. In the Philippines, various CRM projects have already been initiated and no studies have tried to account for the total level of investment. This paper provides an estimate of money spent or invested on CRM in the Philippines and examines the investment per km2 of coral reefs.

Management of wetland resources in the lower Mekong Basin: issues and future directions

The Lower Mekong Basin has extensive wetlands and these are being threatened by numerous problems. Most of these problems are interdependent and interact with one another. The lack of an appropriate definition of wetlands applicable to the region, pervasive inefficiencies and chronic lack of funds among riparian governments, and the poor appreciation of the true economic importance of wetlands and its resources are among the most prominent. The current definition, based on the Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar, Iran, 1971), is too broad when compared to the understanding of wetlands as being swamps, marshes and the like, and was developed specifically for wetlands with international importance as waterfowl habitats. Furthermore, wetlands are composed of different types of resources, which require different modes of management. Often, institutional competition, overlapping mandates and sometimes jealousies occur between government departments when they try to assert their authority on a particular wetland resource and use, and put forward their development plans without considering how these may conflict with other wetlands uses. Finally, effective wetland management requires reliable statistics or information on rate of harvest of natural resources such as fish and others, fishing/harvesting methods over time in order to determine the level of exploitation, and the status of the natural resources. This information is needed to identify opportunities for expansion, to establish historical trends, and to determine when management interventions are necessary to protect the resources from being overused by other developments. In order to address these issues, ICLARM - The World Fish Center has launched a project, the aim of objectives of which are described in this paper.