Three time-slice simulations of the Eemian (eem), the mid-Holocene (hol), and a pre-industrial (pri) control run with the coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present - yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.

Results of a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) set-up to study the interannual to decadal variability in the deep-water formation rates

The characteristics of a global set-up of the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model under forcing of the period 1958-2004 are presented. The model set-up is designed to study the variability in the deep-water mass formation areas and was therefore regionally better resolved in the deep-water formation areas in the Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea, Weddell Sea and Ross Sea. The sea-ice model reproduces realistic sea-ice distributions and variabilities in the sea-ice extent of both hemispheres as well as sea-ice transport that compares well with observational data. Based on a comparison between model and ocean weather ship data in the North Atlantic, we observe that the vertical structure is well captured in areas with a high resolution. In our model set-up, we are able to simulate decadal ocean variability including several salinity anomaly events and corresponding fingerprint in the vertical hydrography. The ocean state of the model set-up features pronounced variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the associated mixed layer depth pattern in the North Atlantic deep-water formation areas.

Productivity- and ocean circulation changes in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last deglaciation and Marine Isotope Stage 3

Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a 'control valve' on ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air-sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and 14C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean's 'organic carbon pump' has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.

Mixed-layer salinity budget in the tropical Indian Ocean: seasonal cycle based only on observations

The mixed-layer salinity (MLS) budget in the tropical Indian Ocean is estimated from a combination of satellite products and in situ observations over the 2004-2012 period, to investigate the mechanisms controlling the seasonal MLS variability. In contrast with previous studies in the tropical Indian Ocean, our results reveal that the coverage, resolution, and quality of available observations are now sufficient to approach a closed monthly climatology seasonal salt budget. In the South-central Arabian Sea and South-western Tropical Indian Ocean (SCAS and STIO, respectively), where seasonal variability of the MLS is pronounced, the monthly MLS tendency terms are well captured by the diagnostic. In the SCAS region, in agreement with previous results, the seasonal cycle of the MLS is mainly due to meridional advection driven by the monsoon winds. In the STIO, contrasting previous results indicating the control of the meridional advection over the seasonal MLS budget, our results reveal the leading role of the freshwater flux due to precipitation.

QuasiGeostrophic Diagnosis of Mixed-Layer Dynamics Embedded in a Mesoscale Turbulent Field

A quasigeostrophic model is developed to diagnose the three-dimensional circulation, including the vertical velocity, in the upper ocean from high-resolution observations of sea surface height and buoyancy. The formulation for the adiabatic component departs from the classical surface quasigeostrophic framework considered before since it takes into account the stratification within the surface mixed layer that is usually much weaker than that in the ocean interior. To achieve this, the model approximates the ocean with two constant stratification layers: a finite-thickness surface layer (or the mixed layer) and an infinitely deep interior layer. It is shown that the leading-order adiabatic circulation is entirely determined if both the surface streamfunction and buoyancy anomalies are considered. The surface layer further includes a diabatic dynamical contribution. Parameterization of diabatic vertical velocities is based on their restoring impacts of the thermal wind balance that is perturbed by turbulent vertical mixing of momentum and buoyancy. The model skill in reproducing the three-dimensional circulation in the upper ocean from surface data is checked against the output of a high-resolution primitive equation numerical simulation

Dissipation of the energy imparted by mid-latitude storms in the Southern Ocean

The aim of this study is to clarify the role of the Southern Ocean storms on interior mixing and meridional overturning circulation. A periodic and idealized numerical model has been designed to represent the key physical processes of a zonal portion of the Southern Ocean located between 70 and 40° S. It incorporates physical ingredients deemed essential for Southern Ocean functioning: rough topography, seasonally varying air–sea fluxes, and high-latitude storms with analytical form. The forcing strategy ensures that the time mean wind stress is the same between the different simulations, so the effect of the storms on the mean wind stress and resulting impacts on the Southern Ocean dynamics are not considered in this study. Level and distribution of mixing attributable to high-frequency winds are quantified and compared to those generated by eddy–topography interactions and dissipation of the balanced flow. Results suggest that (1) the synoptic atmospheric variability alone can generate the levels of mid-depth dissipation frequently observed in the Southern Ocean (10−10–10−9 W kg−1) and (2) the storms strengthen the overturning, primarily through enhanced mixing in the upper 300 m, whereas deeper mixing has a minor effect. The sensitivity of the results to horizontal resolution (20, 5, 2 and 1 km), vertical resolution and numerical choices is evaluated. Challenging issues concerning how numerical models are able to represent interior mixing forced by high-frequency winds are exposed and discussed, particularly in the context of the overturning circulation. Overall, submesoscale-permitting ocean modeling exhibits important delicacies owing to a lack of convergence of key components of its energetics even when reaching Δx =  1 km.

Convergence-guaranteed time-varying RRT path planning for profiling floats in 4-Dimensional flow

This paper presents an extension to the Rapidly-exploring Random Tree (RRT) algorithm applied to autonomous, drifting underwater vehicles. The proposed algorithm is able to plan paths that guarantee convergence in the presence of time-varying ocean dynamics. The method utilizes 4-Dimensional, ocean model prediction data as an evolving basis for expanding the tree from the start location to the goal. The performance of the proposed method is validated through Monte-Carlo simulations. Results illustrate the importance of the temporal variance in path execution, and demonstrate the convergence guarantee of the proposed methods.

Subtropical dipole mode in the Southern Hemisphere: A global view

A global wavenumber-3 dipole SST mode is showed to exist in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical climate variability in austral summer. A positive (negative) phase of the mode is characterized by cool (warm) SST anomalies in the east and warm (cool) SST anomalies in the southwest of the south Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, respectively. This coherent dipole structure is largely a response of ocean mixed layer to the atmospheric forcing characterized by migration and modulation of the subtropical high-pressures, in which the latent heat flux play a leading role through wind-induced evaporation, although ocean dynamics may also be crucial in forming SST anomalies attached to the continents. Exploratory analyses suggest that this mode is strongly damped by the negative heat flux feedback, with a persistence time about three months and no spectral peak at interannual to decadal time scales. As the subtropical dipole mode is linearly independent of ENSO and SAM, whether it represents an additional source of climate predictability should be further studied. Citation: Wang, F. (2010), Subtropical dipole mode in the Southern Hemisphere: A global view, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10702, doi: 10.1029/2010GL042750.

Globcurrent: Sentinel-3 synergy in action

The ESA Data User Element (DUE) funded GlobCurrent project (http://www.globcurrent.org) aims to: (i) advance the quantitative estimation of ocean surface currents from satellite sensor synergy; and (ii) demonstrate impact in user-led scientific, operational and commercial applications that, in turn, will improve and strengthen the uptake of satellite measurements. Today, a synergetic approach for quantitative analysis can build on high-resolution imaging radar and spectrometer data, infrared radiometer data and radar altimeter measurements. It will further integrate Sentinel-3 in combination with Sentinel-1 SAR data. From existing and past missions, it is often demonstrated that sharp gradients in the sea surface temperature (SST) field and the ocean surface chlorophyll-a distribution are spatially correlated with the sea surface roughness anomaly fields at small spatial scales, in the sub-mesocale (1-10 km) to the mesoscale (30-80 km). At the larger mesoscale range (>50 km), information derived from radar altimeters often depict the presence of coherent structures and eddies. The variability often appears largest in regions where the intense surface current regimes (>100 - 200 km) are found. These 2-dimensional structures manifested in the satellite observations represent evidence of the upper ocean (~100-200 m) dynamics. Whereas the quasi geostrophic assumption is valid for the upper ocean dynamics at the larger scale (>100 km), possible triggering mechanisms for the expressions at the mesoscale-to-submesoscale may include spiraling tracers of inertial motion and the interaction of the wind-driven Ekman layer with the quasi-geostrophic current field. This latter, in turn, produces bands of downwelling (convergence) and upwelling (divergence) near fronts. A regular utilization of the sensor synergy approach with the combination of Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-1 will provide a highly valuable data set for further research and development to better relate the 2-dimensional surface expressions and the upper ocean dynamics.

Sea-level changes in Iceland and the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last half millennium

We present a new, diatom-based sea-level reconstruction for Iceland spanning the last -500 years, and investigate the possible mechanisms driving the sea-level changes. A sea-level reconstruction from near the Icelandic low pressure system is important as it can improve understanding of ocean-atmosphere forcing on North Atlantic sea-level variability over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Our reconstruction is from Viarhólmi salt marsh in Snæfellsnes in western Iceland, a site from where we previously obtained a 2000-yr record based upon less precise sea-level indicators (salt-marsh foraminifera). The 20th century part of our record is corroborated by tide-gauge data from Reykjavik. Overall, the new reconstruction shows ca0.6m rise of relative sea level during the last four centuries, of which ca0.2m occurred during the 20th century. Low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level variability is super-imposed on the pre-industrial long-term rising trend of 0.65m per 1000 years. Most of the relative sea-level rise occurred in three distinct periods: AD 1620-1650, AD 1780-1850 and AD 1950-2000, with maximum rates of ~3±2mm/yr during the latter two of these periods. Maximum rates were achieved at the end of large shifts (from negative to positive) of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index as reconstructed from proxy data. Instrumental data demonstrate that a strong and sustained positive NAO (a deep Icelandic Low) generates setup on the west coast of Iceland resulting in rising sea levels. There is no strong evidence that the periods of rapid sea-level rise were caused by ocean mass changes, glacial isostatic adjustment or regional steric change. We suggest that wind forcing plays an important role in causing regional-scale coastal sea-level variability in the North Atlantic, not only on (multi-)annual timescales, but also on multi-decadal to centennial timescales.

Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.

Data assimilation for marine monitoring and prediction: The MERCATOR operational assimilation systems and the MERSEA developments

During the past 15 years, a number of initiatives have been undertaken at national level to develop ocean forecasting systems operating at regional and/or global scales. The co-ordination between these efforts has been organized internationally through the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The French MERCATOR project is one of the leading participants in GODAE. The MERCATOR systems routinely assimilate a variety of observations such as multi-satellite altimeter data, sea-surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, focusing on high-resolution scales of the ocean dynamics. The assimilation strategy in MERCATOR is based on a hierarchy of methods of increasing sophistication including optimal interpolation, Kalman filtering and variational methods, which are progressively deployed through the Syst`eme d’Assimilation MERCATOR (SAM) series. SAM-1 is based on a reduced-order optimal interpolation which can be operated using ‘altimetry-only’ or ‘multi-data’ set-ups; it relies on the concept of separability, assuming that the correlations can be separated into a product of horizontal and vertical contributions. The second release, SAM-2, is being developed to include new features from the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, such as three-dimensional, multivariate error modes and adaptivity schemes. The third one, SAM-3, considers variational methods such as the incremental four-dimensional variational algorithm. Most operational forecasting systems evaluated during GODAE are based on least-squares statistical estimation assuming Gaussian errors. In the framework of the EU MERSEA (Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area) project, research is being conducted to prepare the next-generation operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems. The research effort will explore nonlinear assimilation formulations to overcome limitations of the current systems. This paper provides an overview of the developments conducted in MERSEA with the SEEK filter, the Ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance re-sampling filter.

Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

The RAPID-MOCHA array has observed the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N since 2004. During 2009/2010, there was a transient 30% weakening of the AMOC driven by anomalies in geostrophic and Ekman transports. Here, we use simulations based on the Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) to diagnose the relative importance of atmospheric forcings and internal ocean dynamics in driving the anomalous geostrophic circulation of 2009/10. Data assimilating experiments with FOAM accurately reproduce the mean strength and depth of the AMOC at 26.5°N. In addition, agreement between simulated and observed stream functions in the deep ocean is improved when we calculate the AMOC using a method that approximates the RAPID observations. The main features of the geostrophic circulation anomaly are captured by an ensemble of simulations without data-assimilation. These model results suggest that the atmosphere played a dominant role in driving recent interannual variability of the AMOC.

Impact of atmospheric forcing on Antarctic continental shelf water masses

The Antarctic continental shelf seas feature a bimodal distribution of water mass temperature, with the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas flooded by Circumpolar Deep Water that is several degrees Celsius warmer than the cold shelf waters prevalent in the Weddell and Ross Seas. This bimodal distribution could be caused by differences in atmospheric forcing, ocean dynamics, ocean and ice feedbacks, or some combination of these factors. In this study, a highly simplified coupled sea ice–mixed layer model is developed to investigate the physical processes controlling this situation. Under regional atmospheric forcings and parameter choices the 10-yr simulations demonstrate a complete destratification of the Weddell Sea water column in winter, forming cold, relatively saline shelf waters, while the Amundsen Sea winter mixed layer remains shallower, allowing a layer of deep warm water to persist. Applying the Weddell atmospheric forcing to the Amundsen Sea model destratifies the water column after two years, and applying the Amundsen forcing to the Weddell Sea model results in a shallower steady-state winter mixed layer that no longer destratifies the water column. This suggests that the regional difference in atmospheric forcings alone is sufficient to account for the bimodal distribution in Antarctic shelf-sea temperatures. The model prediction of mixed layer depth is most sensitive to the air temperature forcing, but a switch in all forcings is required to prevent destratification of the Weddell Sea water column.