On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Deciding where to belong: gender differences in educational trajectories and migration in a rural Spanish town

From an anthropological perspective, formal post-secondary schooling is not an abstractentity with an intrinsic value that everyone finds desirable, but rather one alternative among many that young people evaluate from their different positions in the social field. The problem discussed in this paper is the diverging life trajectories that young men and women in a concrete rural context, at the end of the 20th century, shape for themselves at the ages of 14-16, a moment of decision created by national legislation regarding mandatory education (LGE, 1970, General Education Law, and LOGSE, 1990, General Organic Law of the Education System). Despite a strong cultural norm of equal inheritance divided among all children, male and female, and despite the equal educational opportunities provided by the Spanish State, different meanings of possession and use-rights over land and the resulting culturally accepted gendered division of work converge to orient men and women differently towards post-secondary schooling. Observation of the age, gender, and civil status structure of the population led to the preliminary query: Why do men and women, in this town, behave differently with respect to migration and marriage? The main hypothesis was that women’s longer school trajectories and resulting migration and men’s anchoring in the town and their higher rates of celibacy were not drastic changes in values, in the positional-relational sense of Bourdieu (1988, 2002), but the current outcome of previously existing dissimilar relations to property that produce dissimilar mobility. Through their schooling and work choices, young men and women, at very early ages, locate themselves in, or decide to belong to, different contexts that later reveal very different possibilities of finding marriage partners. This paper is based on an ethnographic study of a small rural town (302 inhabitants in 1950; 193 in 2000) near Leon. Although this paper deals with the situation in the final decades of the 20th century, we must also consider the first half of the century, where some elements that shape this situation have their roots. Fieldwork was carried out between 1988 and 2001, in periods of differing length and intensity. The social subjects discussed here are the domestic unit and its component members. They were studied in conjunction, analyzing the life-trajectory decisions of specific persons in the framework of the domestic unit and the relations among people and property which comprise it. The tried-and-true methods of ethnographic research –participant observation, interviews, and life-histories, etc.- were employed. Archival research was also important for producing demographic data. Demographic analysis, the analysis of the composition and transformation of domestic units, and the creation of life trajectories were among the principal techniques used. The theoretical analysis was oriented by Bourdieu’s (2002) framework of the social field, habitus, and difference.

Impact of tamoxifen dose on tamoxifen and its active metabolites exposure in breast cancer patients: preliminary results from a prospective, open-label trial

Background: CYP2D6 is the key enzyme responsible for tamoxifen bioactivation mainly into endoxifen. This gene is highly polymorphic and breast cancer patients classified as CYP2D6 poor metabolizers (PM) or intermediate metabolizers (IM) appear to show low concentrations of endoxifen and to achieve less benefit from tamoxifen treatment. Purpose: This prospective, open-label trial aimed to assess how the increase of tamoxifen dose influences the level of endoxifen in the different genotype groups (poor-, intermediate-, and extensive-metabolizers (EM)). We examined the impact of doubling tamoxifen dose to 20mg twice daily on endoxifen plasma concentrations across these genotype groups. Patients and methods: Patients were assayed for CYP2D6 genotype and phenotype using dextromethorphan test. Tamoxifen, N-desmethyltamoxifen, 4-hydroxytamoxifen and endoxifen plasma levels were determined on 2 occasions at baseline (20mg/day of tamoxifen) and at day 30, 90 and 120 after dose increase (20 mg twice daily) using liquid chromatography-tandem-mass spectrometry. Endoxifen plasma levels were measured 6 to 24 hours after last drug intake to evaluate its accumulation before and after doubling tamoxifen dosage. ANOVA was used to evaluate endoxifen levels increase and difference between genotype groups. Results: 63 patients are available for analysis to date. Tamoxifen, N-desmethyltamoxifen, 4-hydroxytamoxifen and endoxifen plasma reached steady state at 30 day after tamoxifen dose escalation, with a significant increase compared to baseline by 1.6 to 1.8 fold : geometric mean plasma concentrations (CV %) were 140 ng/mL (45%) at baseline vs 255 (47%) at day 30 for tamoxifen (P < 0.0001); 256 (49%) vs 408 (64%) for N-desmethyltamoxifen (P < 0.0001); 2.4 (46%) vs 3.9 (51%) for 4-OH-tamoxifen (P < 0.0001); and 20 (91%) vs 33 (91%) for endoxifen (P < 0.02). On baseline, endoxifen levels tended to be lower in PM: 7 ng/mL (36%), than IM: 16 ng/mL (70%), P=0.08, and EM: 24 ng/mL (71%), P<0.001. After doubling tamoxifen dosage, endoxifen concentrations rose similarly in PM, IM and EM with respectively, 1.5 (18%), 1.5 (28%) and 1.7 (30%) fold increase from baseline, P=0.18. Conclusion: Endoxifen exposure varies widely under standard tamoxifen dosage, with CYP2D6 genotype explaining only a minor part of this variability. It increases consistently on doubling tamoxifen dose, similarly across genotypes. This would enable exposure optimization based on concentration monitoring.

Scaled and adjusted restricted tests in multi-sample analysis of moment structures

We extend to score, Wald and difference test statistics the scaled and adjusted corrections to goodness-of-fit test statistics developed in Satorra and Bentler (1988a,b). The theory is framed in the general context of multisample analysis of moment structures, under general conditions on the distribution of observable variables. Computational issues, as well as the relation of the scaled and corrected statistics to the asymptotic robust ones, is discussed. A Monte Carlo study illustrates thecomparative performance in finite samples of corrected score test statistics.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Niche Differentiation and Fine-Scale Projections for Argentine Ants Based on Remotely Sensed Data

Modeling ecological niches of species is a promising approach for predicting the geographic potential of invasive species in new environments. Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. Despite their widespread success, little is known about what makes an area susceptible - or not - to invasion. Here, we use a genetic algorithm approach to ecological niche modeling based on high-resolution remote-sensing data to examine the roles of niche similarity and difference in predicting invasions by this species. Our comparisons support a picture of general conservatism of the species' ecological characteristics, in spite of distinct geographic and community contexts

DEVELOPMENT OF LOGIC IN INDIA: SIGNIFICANCE OF 'THE DUOLOGUE BETWEEN PĀYĀSI AND KASSAPA' ("LONG DISCOURSES")

ABSTRACT 'The Duologue of King/Governor Pāyāsi' ("Long Discourses") has long been recognised as a source for the proto-materialism current at the time of the Buddha. What needs to be stressed is the significance of the text as a pointer to the development of Logic in India. Perception (observation and experiment employing the joint method of agreement and difference), which is an accepted method of experimental enquiry, and reasoning from analogy, which can lead at best to a probable conclusion - these two are the only means employed to settle the dispute concerning the existence of the other-world. The Jain version of the same duologue-cum-parable, though varying in minor details regarding the name and identity of the monk refuting the king/governor, contains the same contrast, namely, perception versus analogical reasoning. There can be little doubt that the original parable was conceived with a view to asserting the existence of the other-world. In the Kaṭha Upaniṣad (sixth century BCE), an earlier Brahmanical text, however, instead of argument by analogy, verbal testimony (śabda) was invoked to settle the same point. Naciketas is assailed by doubt about the existence of a person after his or her death. The authority of Yama, the Pluto of Indian mythology, is invoked to convince him that the other-world does exist. Thus, the three parables taken together exhibit three means of knowledge in operation: verbal testimony and argument by analogy pitted against perception.

Conditions for EFL learning and professional development : Finland-Swedish learner and teacher perspectives

Engelskans dominerande roll som internationellt språk och andra globaliseringstrender påverkar också Svenskfinland. Dessa trender påverkar i sin tur förutsättningarna för lärande och undervisning i engelska som främmande språk, det vill säga undervisningsmålen, de förväntade elev- och lärarroller, materialens ändamålsenlighet, lärares och elevers initiala erfarenheter av engelska och engelskspråkiga länder. Denna studie undersöker förutsättningarna för lärande och professionell utveckling i det svenskspråkiga nybörjarklassrummet i engelska som främmande språk. Utgångsläget för 351 nybörjare i engelska som främmande språk och 19 av deras lärare beskrivs och analyseras. Resultaten tyder på att engelska håller på att bli ett andraspråk snarare än ett traditionellt främmande språk för många unga elever. Dessa elever har också goda förutsättningar att lära sig engelska utanför skolan. Sådan var dock inte situationen för alla elever, vilket tyder på att det finns en anmärkningsvärd heterogenitet och även regional variation i det finlandssvenska klassrummet i engelska som främmande språk. Lärarresultaten tyder på att vissa lärare har klarat av att på ett konstruktivt sätt att tackla de förutsättningar de möter. Andra lärare uttrycker frustration över sin arbetssituation, läroplanen, undervisningsmaterialen och andra aktörer som kommer är av betydelse för skolmiljön. Studien påvisar att förutsättningarna för lärande och undervisning i engelska som främmande språk varierar i Svenskfinland. För att stöda elevers och lärares utveckling föreslås att dialogen mellan aktörer på olika nivå i samhället bör förbättras och systematiseras.

The effects of moisture, cation concentration, temperature, density and composition of soils on their electrical resistivity

The effects. of moisture, cation concentration, dens ity , temper~ t ure and grai n si ze on the electrical resistivity of so il s are examined using laboratory prepared soils. An i nexpen si ve method for preparing soils of different compositions was developed by mixing various size fractions i n the laboratory. Moisture and cation c oncentration are related to soil resistivity by powe r functions, whereas soil resistiv ity and temperature, density, Yo gravel, sand , sil t, and clay are related by exponential functions . A total of 1066 cases (8528 data) from all the experiments were used in a step-wise multiple linear r egression to determine the effect of each variable on soil resistivity. Six variables out of the eight variables studied account for 92.57/. of the total variance in so il resistivity with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. The other two variables (silt and gravel) did not increase the · variance. Moisture content was found to be - the most important Yo clay. variable- affecting s oil res istivi ty followed by These two variables account for 90.81Yo of the total variance in soil resistivity with a correlation ~oefficient ·.of 0 . 95. Based on these results an equation to ' ~~ed{ ct soil r esist ivi ty using moisture and Yo clay is developed . To t est the predicted equation, resistivity measurements were made on natural soils both in s i tu a nd i n the laboratory. The data show that field and laboratory measurements are comparable. The predicted regression line c losely coinciqes with resistivity data from area A and area B soils ~clayey and silty~clayey sands). Resistivity data and the predicted regression line in the case of c layey soils (clays> 40%) do not coincide, especially a t l ess than 15% moisture. The regression equation overestimates the resistivity of so i l s from area C and underestimates for area D soils. Laboratory prepared high clay soils give similar trends. The deviations are probably caused by heterogeneous distribution of mo i sture and difference in the type o f cl ays present in these soils.

Grounds for telling it : transnational feminism and Canadian women's writing

Cette thèse explore les connections entre la littérature canadienne contemporaine féminine et le féminisme transnational. Le « transnational » est une catégorie qui est de plus en plus importante dans la critique littéraire canadienne, mais elle n’est pas souvent evoquée en lien avec le féminisme. À travers cette thèse, je développe une méthodologie de lecture féministe basée sur le féminisme transnational. Cette méthodologie est appliquée à la littérature canadienne féminine; parallèlement, cette littérature participe à la définition et à l’élaboration des concepts féministes transnationaux tels que la complicité, la collaboration, le silence, et la différence. De plus, ma méthodologie participe à la recontextualisation de certains textes et moments dans l’histoire de la littérature canadienne, ce qui permet la conceptualisation d’une généalogie de l’expression féministe anti-essentialiste dans la littérature canadienne. J’étudie donc des textes de Daphne Marlatt, Dionne Brand, et Suzette Mayr, ainsi que le périodique Tessera et les actes du colloque intitulé Telling It, une conférence qui a eu lieu en 1988. Ces textes parlent de la critique du colonialisme et du nationalisme, des identités post-coloniales et diasporiques, et des possibilités de la collaboration féministe de traverser des frontières de toutes sortes. Dans le premier chapitre, j’explique ma méthodologie en démontrant que le périodique féministe bilingue Tessera peut être lu en lien avec le féminisme transnational. Le deuxième chapitre s’attarde à la publication editée par le collectif qui a été formé à la suite de la conférence Telling It. Je situe Telling It dans le contexte des discussions sur les différences qui ont eu lieu dans le féminisme nord-américan des dernières décennies. Notamment, mes recherches sur Telling It sont fondées sur des documents d’archives peu consultés qui permettent une réflexion sur les silences qui peuvent se cacher au centre du travail collaboratif. Le trosième chapitre est constitué d’une lecture proche du texte multi-genre « In the Month of Hungry Ghosts, » écrit par Daphne Marlatt en 1979. Ce texte explore les connexions complexes entre le colonialisme, le postcolonialisme, la complicité et la mondialisation. Le suject du quatrième chapitre est le film Listening for Something… (1994) qui découle d’une collaboration féministe transnationale entre Dionne Brand et Adrienne Rich. Pour terminer, le cinquième chapitre explore les liens entre le transnational et le national, la région – et le monstrueux, dans le contexte du roman Venous Hum (2004) de Suzette Mayr. Ces lectures textuelles critiques se penchent toutes sur la question de la représentation de la collaboration féministe à travers les différences – question essentielle à l’action féministe transnationale. Mes recherche se trouvent donc aux intersections de la littérature canadienne, la théorie féministe contemporaine, les études postcoloniales et la mondialisation. Les discussions fascinantes qui se passent au sein de la théorie transnationale féministe sont pertinentes à ces intersections et de plus, la littérature contemporaine féminine au Canada offre des interventions importantes permettant d’imaginer la collaboration féministe transnationale.

Caring at a distance: Gift Theory, aid chains and social movements

This paper takes as its starting point recent work on caring for distant others which is one expression of renewed interest in moral geographies. It examines relationships in aid chains connecting donors/carers in the First World or North and recipients/cared for in the Third World or South. Assuming predominance of relationships between strangers and of universalism as a basis for moral motivation I draw upon Gift Theory in order to characterize two basic forms of gift relationship. The first is purely altruistic, the other fully reciprocal and obligatory within the framework of institutions, values and social forces within specific relationships of politics and power. This conception problematizes donor-recipient relationships in the context of two modernist models of aid chains-the Resource Transfer and the Beyond Aid Paradigms. In the first, donor domination means low levels of reciprocity despite rhetoric about partnership and participation. The second identifies potential for greater reciprocity on the basis of combination between social movements and non-governmental organizations at both national and trans-national levels, although at the risk of marginalizing competencies of states. Finally, I evaluate post-structural critiques which also problematize aid chain relationships. They do so both in terms of bases-such as universals and difference-upon which it might be constructed and the means-such as forms of positionality and mutuality-by which it might be achieved.

Physical interpretation of the spectral radiative signature in the transition zone between cloud-free and cloudy regions

One-second-resolution zenith radiance measure- ments from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement pro- gram’s new shortwave spectrometer (SWS) provide a unique opportunity to analyze the transition zone between cloudy and cloud-free air, which has considerable bearing on the aerosol indirect effect. In the transition zone, we find a re- markable linear relationship between the sum and difference of radiances at 870 and 1640 nm wavelengths. The intercept of the relationship is determined primarily by aerosol prop- erties, and the slope by cloud properties. We then show that this linearity can be predicted from simple theoretical con- siderations and furthermore that it supports the hypothesis of inhomogeneous mixing, whereby optical depth increases as a cloud is approached but the effective drop size remains un- changed.

Education and Earnings for Poverty Reduction : Short-Term Evidence of Pro-Poor Growth from the Mexican Oportunidades Program

Education, as an indispensable component of human capital, has been acknowledged to play a critical role in economic growth, which is theoretically elaborated by human capital theory and empirically confirmed by evidence from different parts of the world. The educational impact on growth is especially valuable and meaningful when it is for the sake of poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth. The paper re-explores the precious link between human capital development and poverty reduction by investigating the causal effect of education accumulation on earnings enhancement for anti-poverty and pro-poor growth. The analysis takes the evidence from a well-known conditional cash transfer (CCT) program — Oportunidades in Mexico. Aiming at alleviating poverty and promoting a better future by investing in human capital for children and youth in poverty, this CCT program has been recognized producing significant outcomes. The study investigates a short-term impact of education on earnings of the economically disadvantaged youth, taking the data of both the program’s treated and untreated youth from urban areas in Mexico from 2002 to 2004. Two econometric techniques, i.e. difference-in-differences and difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach are applied for estimation. The empirical analysis first identifies that youth who under the program’s schooling intervention possess an advantage in educational attainment over their non-intervention peers; with this identification of education discrepancy as a prerequisite, further results then present that earnings of the education advantaged youth increase at a higher rate about 20 percent than earnings of their education disadvantaged peers over the two years. This result indicates a confirmation that education accumulation for the economically disadvantaged young has a positive impact on their earnings enhancement and thus inferring a contribution to poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth.

Digestibility and metabolizable energy of maize gluten feed for dogs as measured by two different techniques

Maize gluten feed (MGF) is a co-product of wet milling of maize, and is composed of structures that remain after most starch, gluten and germ has been extracted from the grain. Although currently used in dog foods, its digestibility and energy values have not been documented. Two techniques were used to determine nutrient digestibility of MGF for dog foods. Both techniques used extruded diets fed to Beagle dogs, with six replicates per diet. The first study used a difference method in which 300 g/kg of a reference diet was replaced by MGF. Based on the difference method, the coefficient of total tract apparent digestibility (CTTAD) of MGF was 0.53 for dry matter (DM), 0.69 for crude protein (CP), 0.74 for fat, 0.99 for starch, and 0.55 for gross energy (GE). The calculated metabolizable energy (ME) of MGF was 7.99 MJ/kg (as-fed). The second study used a regression method and included a basal diet and a basal diet with 70, 140 and 210 g MGF/kg of diet (as a substitute for maize starch). Maize gluten feed inclusion resulted in a linear reduction of CTTAD of DM (R(2)=0.99; P<0.001), CP (R(2)=0.95; P=0.002), fat (R(2)=0.87; P=0.009). starch (R(2)=0.81; P<0.001), and GE (R(2)=0.99; P<0.001). Faecal production increased linearly from 56 g to 107 g/dog/d (R(2)=0.99; P<0.001), with a linear reduction of faecal DM (R(2)=0.99: P<0.001) and a linear increase in faecal lactic acid concentration (P<0.02). Both urine (R(2)=0.77; P=0.029) and faeces (R(2)=0.92: P=0.019) showed a linear reduction in pH. Results of ingredient MAD obtained by the regression and difference methods were close (6% or less of variation) for CP, fat, and starch, and also for ME content (1.4% higher for the difference method), but the two methods disagreed on calculated CTTAD of DM and organic matter. The high dietary fiber content of MGF (382 g/kg) may explain the low digestibility of this ingredient. Maize gluten feed could be a useful ingredient for formulations designed to have low energy or reduce the urine pH of dogs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis, characterization and molecular structures of the pyridinium trans-bis(pyridine)tetrachlororuthenate(III) and pyridinium trans-(carbonyl)(pyridine)tetrachlororuthenate(III)

The pyH[trans-RuCl4(py)2](1) and pyH[trans-RuCl4(CO)(py)](2) complexes were synthesized and found to crystallize in space group P21/n, Z = 4 with a = 8.080(7), b = 22.503(7), c = 10.125(6) Å, β = 93.19(6)° for (1) and a = 7.821(1), b = 10.337(3), c = 19.763(3) Å, β = 93.07(1)° for (2). The structures were solved by Patterson and difference Fourier techniques and refined to R = 0.062 for (1) and R = 0.038 for (2). In both cases the Ru(III) ion is octahedrally coordinated to four co-planar chlorine atoms, the nitrogen of the pyridine rings or carbon from the carbon monoxide. Another protonated pyridine group, which forms the counter-cation completes the crystal structures. The UV-Vis absorption spectra show three bands: (1) 360 (ε = 1180 M-1 cm-1), 441 (ε = 3200 M-1 cm-1) and 532 nm (ε = 400 M-1 cm-1); (2) 315(ε = 1150 M-1 cm-1), 442 (ε = 3170 M-1 cm-1) and 530 nm (ε = 390 M-1 cm-1). The two higher energy bands were associated with ligand-to-metal charge transfer transitions and a third band at lower energy was assigned to a d-d transition. Low temperature EPR data confirmed the presence of the paramagnetically active Ru(III) and it is consistent with axial symmetry of the complexes. The position of the stretching CO band in complex (2) is discussed in terms of metal-CO backbonding.