Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Implants with Original and Non-Original Abutment Connections

AIM: To test in vitro the mechanical resistance, rotational misfit and failure mode of three original implant-abutment connections and to compare them to two connections between non-original abutments connected to one of the original implants. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three different implants with small diameters (3.3 mm for Straumann Roxolid, 3.5 mm for Nobel Biocare Replace and Astra Tech Osseospeed TX) were connected with individualized titanium abutments. Twelve implants from each system were connected to their original abutments (Straumann CARES, Nobel Biocare Procera, Astra Tech Atlantis). Twenty-four Roxolid implants were connected with non-original abutments using CAD/CAM procedures from the other two manufacturers (12 Nobel Biocare Procera and 12 Astra Tech Atlantis). For the critical bending test, a Zwick/Roell 1475 machine and the Xpert Zwick/Roell software were used. RESULTS: The rotational misfit varied when comparing the different interfaces. The use of non-original grade V titanium abutments on Roxolid implants increased the force needed for deformation. The fracture mode was different with one of the original connections. CONCLUSIONS: Non-original abutments differ in design of the connecting surfaces and material and demonstrate higher rotational misfit. These differences may result in unexpected failure modes.

Employee-owned firms: a labour model with potential?

In Spain, the companies that are mainly owned by the employees form a part of the Social Economy and offer an alternative business model, which is found in a conventional capitalist economy. The objective of this study is to establish whether there are significant differences in the performance of Employee Owned Firms (EOFs) and more conventionally structured businesses, non-Employee Owned Firms (non-EOFs), due to the inherent differences in the capital-ownership structure. The aim is to establish whether or not a corporate governance structure characterised by the employee participation for both the financial and the informational decision-making aspects can be advocated. The results show differences in favour of the conventional non-EOFs for various indicators measuring economic performance and confirm the different objectives of each business type; however, they provide evidence of significant differences in favour of the EOFs in terms of the efficient use of the capital and labour factors of production, according to the theoretical literature.

The quality of financial information in the extractive industries: a value relevance analysis

The extractive industry is characterized by high levels of risk and uncertainty. These attributes create challenges when applying traditional accounting concepts (such as the revenue recognition and matching concepts) to the preparation of financial statements in the industry. The International Accounting Standards Board (2010) states that the objective of general purpose financial statements is to provide useful financial information to assist the capital allocation decisions of existing and potential providers of capital. The usefulness of information is defined as being relevant and faithfully represented so as to best aid in the investment decisions of capital providers. Value relevance research utilizes adaptations of the Ohlson (1995) to assess the attribute of value relevance which is one part of the attributes resulting in useful information. This study firstly examines the value relevance of the financial information disclosed in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings reveal that the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports depends on the circumstances of the firm including sector, size and profitability. Traditional accounting concepts such as the matching concept can be ineffective when applied to small firms who are primarily engaged in nonproduction activities that involve significant levels of uncertainty such as exploration activities or the development of sites. Standard setting bodies such as the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have addressed the financial reporting challenges in the extractive industry by allowing a significant amount of accounting flexibility in industryspecific accounting standards, particularly in relation to the accounting treatment of exploration and evaluation expenditure. Therefore, secondly this study examines whether the choice of exploration accounting policy has an effect on the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports. The findings show that, in general, the Successful Efforts method produces value relevant information in the financial reports of profitable extractive firms. However, specifically in the oil & gas sector, the Full Cost method produces value relevant asset disclosures if the firm is lossmaking. This indicates that investors in production and non-production orientated firms have different information needs and these needs cannot be simultaneously fulfilled by a single accounting policy. In the mining sector, a preference by large profitable mining companies towards a more conservative policy than either the Full Cost or Successful Efforts methods does not result in more value relevant information being disclosed in the financial reports. This finding supports the fact that the qualitative characteristic of prudence is a form of bias which has a downward effect on asset values. The third aspect of this study is an examination of the effect of corporate governance on the value relevance of disclosures made in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings show that the key factor influencing the value relevance of financial information is the ability of the directors to select accounting policies which reflect the economic substance of the particular circumstances facing the firms in an effective way. Corporate governance is found to have an effect on value relevance, particularly in the oil & gas sector. However, there is no significant difference between the exploration accounting policy choices made by directors of firms with good systems of corporate governance and those with weak systems of corporate governance.

Implications of FIN 46 for Accruals Quality and Investment Efficiency

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Interpretation No. 46 (FIN 46), Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities – An Interpretation of ARB No. 51, in January 2003 and revised it in December 2003, with the objective to improve the transparency of financial information. Under FIN 46, companies are required to consolidate variable interest entities (VIEs) on financial statements if they are the primary beneficiaries of the VIEs. This dissertation empirically examines whether the implementation of this new financial reporting guidance affects firms’ accruals quality and investment efficiency. A manually collected sample comprised of firms affected by FIN 46 and firms disclosing no material impact from FIN 46 is used in the empirical analyses.The first part of the dissertation investigates the effects of FIN 46 on accruals quality. By using different accrual quality measures in prior studies, this study found that firms affected by FIN 46 experienced a decrease in accrual quality compared to firms reporting no material impact from FIN 46. Among the firms affected by FIN 46, firms consolidating VIEs were compared with firms terminating or restructuring VIEs. The accruals quality of firms consolidating VIEs was found to be lower than that of firms terminating or restructuring VIEs. These results are consistent in tests using alternative control samples.The second part of this dissertation examines the effects of FIN 46 on investment efficiency. Mixed results were found from using two different proxies used in prior literature. Using the investment-cash flow sensitivity to proxy for investment efficiency, firms affected by FIN 46 experienced a decrease in investment efficiency compared to firms reporting no material impact. It was also found that higher investment-cash flow sensitivity for firms consolidating VIEs during post-FIN 46 periods compared to both the no-impact firms and the matched pair control sample. Contrasting results were found when the deviation from expected investment is used as another proxy for investment efficiency. Empirical analyses show that FIN 46 firms experienced improved investment efficiency measured by the deviation from expected investment after their adoption of FIN 46. This study also provides explanations for the opposite results from the two different proxies.

Empirical studies on share issuance and repurchase decisions

Financial constraints influence corporate policies of firms, including both investment decisions and external financing policies. The relevance of this phenomenon has become more pronounced during and after the recent financial crisis in 2007/2008. In addition to raising costs of external financing, the effects of financial crisis limited the availability of external financing which had implications for employment, investment, sale of assets, and tech spending. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of financial constraints on share issuance and repurchases decisions. Financial constraints comprise both internal constraints reflecting the demand for external financing and external financial constraints that relate to the supply of external financing. The study also examines both operating performance and stock market reactions associated with equity issuance methods. The first empirical chapter explores the simultaneous effects of financial constraints and market timing on share issuance decisions. Internal financing constraints limit firms’ ability to issue overvalued equity. On the other hand, financial crisis and low market liquidity (external financial constraints) restrict availability of equity financing and consequently increase the costs of external financing. Therefore, the study explores the extent to which internal and external financing constraints limit market timing of equity issues. This study finds that financial constraints play a significant role in whether firms time their equity issues when the shares are overvalued. The conclusion is that financially constrained firms issue overvalued equity when the external equity market or the general economic conditions are favourable. During recessionary periods, costs of external finance increase such that financially constrained firms are less likely to issue overvalued equity. Only unconstrained firms are more likely to issue overvalued equity even during crisis. Similarly, small firms that need cash flows to finance growth projects are less likely to access external equity financing during period of significant economic recessions. Moreover, constrained firms have low average stock returns compared to unconstrained firms, especially when they issue overvalued equity. The second chapter examines the operating performance and stock returns associated with equity issuance methods. Firms in the UK can issue equity through rights issues, open offers, and private placement. This study argues that alternative equity issuance methods are associated with a different level of operating performance and long-term stock returns. Firms using private placement are associated with poor operating performance. However, rights issues are found empirically to be associated with higher operating performance and less negative long-term stock returns after issuance in comparison to counterpart firms that issue private placements and open offers. Thus, rights issuing firms perform better than open offers and private placement because the favourable operating performance at the time of issuance generates subsequent positive long-run stock price response. Right issuing firms are of better quality and outperform firms that adopt open offers and private placement. In the third empirical chapter, the study explores the levered share repurchase of internally financially unconstrained firms. Unconstrained firms are expected to repurchase their shares using internal funds rather than through external borrowings. However, evidence shows that levered share repurchases are common among unconstrained firms. These firms display this repurchase behaviour when they have bond ratings or investment grade ratings that allow them to obtain cheap external debt financing. It is found that internally financially unconstrained firms borrow to finance their share repurchase when they invest more. Levered repurchase firms are associated with less positive abnormal returns than unlevered repurchase firms. For the levered repurchase sample, high investing firms are associated with more positive long-run abnormal stock returns than low investing firms. It appears the market underreact to the levered repurchase in the short-run regardless of the level of investments. These findings indicate that market reactions reflect both undervaluation and signaling hypotheses of positive information associated with share repurchase. As the firms undertake capital investments, they generate future cash flows, limit the effects of leverage on financial distress and ultimately reduce the risk of the equity capital.

Mandatory auditor rotation : Australian evidence

A key part of the auditor independence reforms in Australia, as represented by Corporate Law Economic Reform Program (Audit Reform and Corporate Disclosure) Act 2004 (Cth) (CLERP 9), mandates audit partner rotation. The change was criticised predominantly due to the costs imposed on both the audit firms and the audit clients. This study examines the Australian experience post-CLERP 9 with mandated auditor rotation. Based on data of audit partner rotation over 2003–2009 (on average 1200 listed Australian companies over the sample period), we show that audit partner tenure sat at a median of 2–3 years, but that the maximum audit partner tenure was as high as 20 years in the pre-CLERP 9 period. For around 85% of the market, audit partner rotation occurred voluntarily at between 1–5 years. The interesting result is that for 15% of the market, the mandated audit partner rotation had a significant impact on corporate governance practice. There is also a greater observed impact of mandatory rotation on audit engagements involving the non-global auditing firms. These findings inform the debate as to the ‘costliness’ of the law reform.

Examining corporate governance disclosures of listed companies in Fiji

In 2009, the Capital Markets Development Authority (CMDA) - Fiji’s capital market regulator - introduced the Code of Corporate Governance (the Code). The Code is ‘principle-based’ and requires companies listed on the South Pacific Stock Exchange (SPSE) and the financial intermediaries to disclose their compliance with the Code’s principles. While compliance with the Code is mandatory, the nature and extent of disclosure is at the discretion of the complying entities. Agency theory and signalling theory suggest that firms with higher expected levels of agency costs will provide greater levels of voluntary disclosures as signals of strong corporate governance. Thus, the study seeks to test these theories by examining the heterogeneity of corporate governance disclosures by firms listed on SPSE, and determining the characteristics of firms that provide similar levels of disclosures. We conducted a content analysis of corporate governance disclosures on the annual reports of firms from 2008-2012. The study finds that large, non-family owned firms with high levels of shareholder dispersion provide greater quantity and higher quality corporate governance disclosures. For firms that are relatively smaller, family owned and have low levels of shareholder dispersion, the quantity and quality of corporate governance disclosures are much lower. Some of these firms provide boilerplate disclosures with minimal changes in the following years. These findings support the propositions of agency and signalling theory, which suggest that firms with higher separation between agents and principals will provide more voluntary disclosures to reduce expected agency costs transfers. Semi-structured interviews conducted with key stakeholders further reinforce the findings. The interviews also reveal that complying entities positively perceive the introduction of the Code. Furthermore, while compliance with Code brought about additional costs, they believed that most of these costs were minimal and one-off, and the benefits of greater corporate disclosure to improve user decision making outweighed the costs. The study contributes to the literature as it provides insight into the experience of a small capital market with introducing a ‘principle-based’ Code that attempts to encourage corporate governance practices through enhanced disclosure. The study also assists policy makers better understand complying entities’ motivations for compliance and the extent of compliance.

HRM and Firm Productivity: Does Industry Matter?

Recent years have witnessed burgeoning interest in the degree to which human resource systems contribute to organizational effectiveness. We argue that extant research has not fully considered important contextual conditions which moderate the efficacy of these practices. Specifically, we invoke a contingency perspective in proposing that industry characteristics affect the relative importance and value of high performance work practices (HPWPs). We test this proposition on a sample of non-diversified manufacturing firms. After controlling for the influence of a number of other factors, study findings support the argument that industry characteristics moderate the influence of HPWPs on firm productivity. Specifically, the impact of a system of HPWPs on firm productivity is significantly influenced by the industry conditions of capital intensity, growth and differentiation.

With Good Reputation Size Does not Matter: Issue Frequency and the Determinants of Debt Maturity

This paper examines empirically the effect firm reputation has on the determinants of debt maturity. Utilising data from European primary bond market between 1999 and 2005, I find that the maturity choice of issuers with a higher reputation is less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, market credit risk-premiums, prevailing firm credit quality and size of the debt issue. The annualised coupon payments are shown to be a significant factor in determining the debt maturity and reveal a monotonously increasing relationship between credit quality and debt maturity once controlled for. Finally, I show that issuers lacking a credit rating have an implied credit quality positioned between investment-grade and speculative-grade debt.

Kapital sozialaren garrantzia familia enpresetan

[EU]Kapital sozialaren ikuspegian oinarriturik eta kotizatu gabeko 172 familiaenpresa espainiarren lagin bat erabiliz, barne hartuz enpresan kudeaketa-funtzioak betetzen dituzten pertsona elkarrizketatu bi eta guztira 344 galdetegi izanik, uste dugu kapital sozial familiarrak bitartekari gisa balio duela kapital sozial ez-familiarraren eta enpresaren jardueraren artean. Gainera, gure emaitzek kapital sozialaren ulermena familia-enpresatik haratago hedatzen dute, erakundeek talde sozial nagusi baten presentzia ezaugarritzat duten testuinguru batean.

Interlocking directorships

[Introduction] When a director of one company at the same time serves on the board of another company, the two companies are said to be interlocked by that director. Through this linkage each company has potential access to information about the activities of the other, either explicitly as intelligence transferred by the director or implicitly in shaping the director’s perspective and general views. Director interlocks formed by executive directors, employed by the firm, are generally interpreted as more instrumental for the firm than those formed by non-executive directors. Firms are often interlocked with more than one other firm and those firms, in turn, with others; a web of social relationships envelops business.

O grau de investimento definido por um indicador económico e financeiro

No contexto econômico competitivo e globalizado no qual as corporações estão inseridas, emerge a necessidade de evolução constante para acompanhar as mudanças que o ambiente lhes impõe, visando a sustentabilidade e a perpetuidade. A evolução econômica e financeira das corporações pode promover o desenvolvimento de uma nação, mesmo que o aumento da concorrência no mercado obrigue-as a investirem em novas relações com o seu universo, buscando melhorar os seus níveis de desempenho mensurados por meio de novos instrumentos economicos e financeiros. Desta forma, o grau de investimento corporativo passa a ser relevante, pois pode gerar confiança em novos investimentos, sendo visto como sinônimo de economia forte. No concernente ao objetivo, esta tese teve como escopo o desenvolvimento de um indicador econômico e financeiro visando balizar o grau de credibilidade rating que as corporações apresentam em sua estrutura corporativa, por meio de um conjunto de índices econômicos e financeiros ligados à liquidez, à lucratividade, ao endividamento e à rentabilidade, provindos das demonstrações econômicas e financeiras das corporações estudadas. Este estudo caracteriza-se no contexto da tipologia aplicada, de objetivo descritivo com delineamento bibliográfico, na amplitude da problemática, caracteriza-se como quantitativo, compreendendo a população de 70 corporações brasileiras reconhecidas pelas certificadoras internacionais, Standard & Poor's, Moody's e Fitch Ratings, as quais detinham o grau de investimento corporativo no ano de 2008. Quanto aos métodos e procedimentos estatísticos, primeiramente utilizou-se a análise descritiva com vistas ao resumo dos dados, posteriormente foi feita a análise de correlação por meio do Coeficiente de Correlação Linear de Pearson, aplicando-se em seguida a análise de regressão. Em seguida para a confecção do modelo utilizou-se a análise fatorial e para testificar sua confiabilidade o Alfa de Cronbach, utilizou-se também a análise discriminante, para classificação dos quartis. As conclusões do estudo baseiamse nos resultados apresentados pela evolução do tratamento estatístico, que inicialmente apresentam uma correlação predominantemente fraca, no entanto isto não invalida a correlação de Pearson, pois todos os coeficientes apresentaram uma significância de (p<0,05). Na aplicação da análise de regressão, todos os modelos apresentaram resultados satisfatórios sendo perceptível a existência de uma forte correlação. A confiabilidade do modelo de grau de investimento corporativo provindo da análise fatorial foi testificada pelo coeficiente do Alpha de Cronbach, que apresentou valor de 0,768, o que indica consistência interna satisfatória ao estudo. O grau de investimento na base longitudinal de 2008 a 2010 apresenta variabilidade de 95,72% a 98,33% de acertividade. Portanto, conclui-se que o indicador criado por este estudo, possui condições de ser utilizado como base de definição do grau de investimento de corporações empresariais.

Retos y alternativas de inversión para las compañías aseguradoras en Colombia

En este documento se explica el rol de las compañías aseguradoras colombianas dentro del sistema pensional y se busca, a través de la comprensión de la evolución del entorno macroeconómico y del marco regulatorio, identificar los retos que enfrentan. Los retos explicados en el documento son tres: el reto de la rentabilidad, el reto que plantean los cambios relativamente frecuentes de la regulación, y el reto del “calce”. El documento se enfoca principalmente en el reto de la rentabilidad y desarrolla un ejercicio de frontera eficiente que utiliza retornos esperados calculados a partir de la metodología de Damodaran (2012). Los resultados del ejercicio soportan la idea de que en efecto los retornos esperados serán menores para cualquier nivel de riesgo y sugiere que ante tal panorama, la relajación de las restricciones impuestas por el Régimen de inversiones podría alivianar los preocupaciones de las compañías aseguradoras en esta materia. Para los otros dos retos también se sugieren alternativas: el Algorithmic Trading para el caso del reto que impone los cambios en la regulación, y las Asociaciones Público-Privadas para abordar el reto del “calce”.

Divulgación on-line de los códigos de buen gobierno en las IES y su determinación para el posicionamiento en el ranking QS

Dado el interés que se presenta con los temas de gobierno corporativo, este trabajo busca describir si la divulgación on-line de los contenidos de los códigos de buen gobierno, es determinante en el posicionamiento que tienen las Instituciones de Educación Superior (IES) en el ranking QS. Partiendo de una muestra de 20 IES, se recolectaron un conjunto de datos dicotómicos para 30 variables independientes y se relacionaron con la variable dependiente denominada posicionamiento en el ranking. A partir de lo anterior, se elaboró un trabajo descriptivo y correlacional con el fin de probar las hipótesis de investigación. Este estudio reveló que la divulgación on-line de los contenidos de los códigos de buen gobierno en las IES, no es determinante para el posicionamiento en el ranking QS.