Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

The constraints-based approach to motor learning : Implications for a non-linear pedagogy in sport and physical education

Recently, a constraints- led approach has been promoted as a framework for understanding how children and adults acquire movement skills for sport and exercise (see Davids, Button & Bennett, 2008; Araújo et al., 2004). The aim of a constraints- led approach is to identify the nature of interacting constraints that influence skill acquisition in learners. In this chapter the main theoretical ideas behind a constraints- led approach are outlined to assist practical applications by sports practitioners and physical educators in a non- linear pedagogy (see Chow et al., 2006, 2007). To achieve this goal, this chapter examines implications for some of the typical challenges facing sport pedagogists and physical educators in the design of learning programmes.

The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

A non-linear dynamic analysis of heavy haul track line sleepers under wheel flat

Significant wheel-rail dynamic forces occur because of imperfections in the wheels and/or rail. One of the key responses to the transmission of these forces down through the track is impact force on the sleepers. Dynamic analysis of nonlinear systems is very complicated and does not lend itself easily to a classical solution of multiple equations. Trying to deduce the behaviour of track components from experimental data is very difficult because such data is hard to obtain and applies to only the particular conditions of the track being tested. The finite element method can be the best solution to this dilemma. This paper describes a finite element model using the software package ANSYS for various sized flat defects in the tread of a wheel rolling at a typical speed on heavy haul track. The paper explores the dynamic response of a prestressed concrete sleeper to these defects.

Non-linear position control for hover and automatic landing of unmanned aerial vehicles

This study presents a disturbance attenuation controller for horizontal position stabilisation for hover and automatic landings of a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV) operating close to the landing deck in rough seas. Based on a helicopter model representing aerodynamics during the landing phase, a non-linear state feedback H∞ controller is designed to achieve rapid horizontal position tracking in a gusty environment. Practical constraints including flapping dynamics, servo dynamics and time lag effect are considered. A high-fidelity closed-loop simulation using parameters of the Vario XLC gas-turbine helicopter verifies performance of the proposed horizontal position controller. The proposed controller not only increases the disturbance attenuation capability of the RUAV, but also enables rapid position response when gusts occur. Comparative studies show that the H∞ controller exhibits performance improvement and can be applied to ship/RUAV landing systems.

Higher-order non-linear analysis of steel structures. Part I : elastic second-order formulation

This paper presents a higher-order beam-column formulation that can capture the geometrically non-linear behaviour of steel framed structures which contain a multiplicity of slender members. Despite advances in computational frame software, analyses of large frames can still be problematic from a numerical standpoint and so the intent of the paper is to fulfil a need for versatile, reliable and efficient non-linear analysis of general steel framed structures with very many members. Following a comprehensive review of numerical frame analysis techniques, a fourth-order element is derived and implemented in an updated Lagrangian formulation, and it is able to predict flexural buckling, snap-through buckling and large displacement post-buckling behaviour of typical structures whose responses have been reported by independent researchers. The solutions are shown to be efficacious in terms of a balance of accuracy and computational expediency. The higher-order element forms a basis for augmenting the geometrically non-linear approach with material non-linearity through the refined plastic hinge methodology described in the companion paper.

Higher-order non-linear analysis of steel structures. Part II : refined plastic hinge formulation

In the companion paper, a fourth-order element formulation in an updated Lagrangian formulation was presented to handle geometric non-linearities. The formulation of the present paper extends this to include material non-linearity by proposing a refined plastic hinge approach to analyse large steel framed structures with many members, for which contemporary algorithms based on the plastic zone approach can be problematic computationally. This concept is an advancement of conventional plastic hinge approaches, as the refined plastic hinge technique allows for gradual yielding, being recognized as distributed plasticity across the element section, a condition of full plasticity, as well as including strain hardening. It is founded on interaction yield surfaces specified analytically in terms of force resultants, and achieves accurate and rapid convergence for large frames for which geometric and material non-linearity are significant. The solutions are shown to be efficacious in terms of a balance of accuracy and computational expediency. In addition to the numerical efficiency, the present versatile approach is able to capture different kinds of material and geometric non-linearities on general applications of steel structures, and thereby it offers an efficacious and accurate means of assessing non-linear behaviour of the structures for engineering practice.

Capturing complex, non-linear team behaviours during competitive football performance

This study investigated changes in the complexity (magnitude and structure of variability) of the collective behaviours of association football teams during competitive performance. Raw positional data from an entire competitive match between two professional teams were obtained with the ProZone® tracking system. Five compound positional variables were used to investigate the collective patterns of performance of each team including: surface area, stretch index, team length, team width, and geometrical centre. Analyses involve the coefficient of variation (%CV) and approximate entropy (ApEn), as well as the linear association between both parameters. Collective measures successfully captured the idiosyncratic behaviours of each team and their variations across the six time periods of the match. Key events such as goals scored and game breaks (such as half time and full time) seemed to influence the collective patterns of performance. While ApEn values significantly decreased during each half, the %CV increased. Teams seem to become more regular and predictable, but with increased magnitudes of variation in their organisational shape over the natural course of a match.

Numerical estimation of 3D mechanical forces exerted by cells on non-linear materials

The exchange of physical forces in both cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions play a significant role in a variety of physiological and pathological processes, such as cell migration, cancer metastasis, inflammation and wound healing. Therefore, great interest exists in accurately quantifying the forces that cells exert on their substrate during migration. Traction Force Microscopy (TFM) is the most widely used method for measuring cell traction forces. Several mathematical techniques have been developed to estimate forces from TFM experiments. However, certain simplifications are commonly assumed, such as linear elasticity of the materials and/or free geometries, which in some cases may lead to inaccurate results. Here, cellular forces are numerically estimated by solving a minimization problem that combines multiple non-linear FEM solutions. Our simulations, free from constraints on the geometrical and the mechanical conditions, show that forces are predicted with higher accuracy than when using the standard approaches.

Non-linear refined finite element elastic analysis of steel frames with generalized transverse member loads

In the finite element modelling of steel frames, external loads usually act along the members rather than at the nodes only. Conventionally, when a member is subjected to these transverse loads, they are converted to nodal forces which act at the ends of the elements into which the member is discretised by either lumping or consistent nodal load approaches. For a contemporary geometrically non-linear analysis in which the axial force in the member is large, accurate solutions are achieved by discretising the member into many elements, which can produce unfavourable consequences on the efficacy of the method for analysing large steel frames. Herein, a numerical technique to include the transverse loading in the non-linear stiffness formulation for a single element is proposed, and which is able to predict the structural responses of steel frames involving the effects of first-order member loads as well as the second-order coupling effect between the transverse load and the axial force in the member. This allows for a minimal discretisation of a frame for second-order analysis. For those conventional analyses which do include transverse member loading, prescribed stiffness matrices must be used for the plethora of specific loading patterns encountered. This paper shows, however, that the principle of superposition can be applied to the equilibrium condition, so that the form of the stiffness matrix remains unchanged with only the magnitude of the loading being needed to be changed in the stiffness formulation. This novelty allows for a very useful generalised stiffness formulation for a single higher-order element with arbitrary transverse loading patterns to be formulated. The results are verified using analytical stability function studies, as well as with numerical results reported by independent researchers on several simple structural frames.

Non-linear model predictive control for UAVs with slung/swung load

Suspended loads on UAVs can provide significant benefits to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction. The load impact on the underlying system dynamics should not be neglected as significant feedback forces may be induced on the vehicle during certain flight manoeuvres. Much research has focused on standard multi-rotor position and attitude control with and without a slung load. However, predictive control schemes, such as Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), have not yet been fully explored. To this end, we present software and flight system architecture to test controller for safe and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung load in three dimensions.

Non-linear principal components analysis : an alternative method for finding patterns in environmental data

The main purpose of this article is to gain an insight into the relationships between variables describing the environmental conditions of the Far Northern section of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Several of the variables describing these conditions had different measurement levels and often they had non-linear relationships. Using non-linear principal component analysis, it was possible to acquire an insight into these relationships. Furthermore, three geographical areas with unique environmental characteristics could be identified.

A non-linear interface element model for thin layer high adhesive mortared masonry

A nonlinear interface element modelling method is formulated for the prediction of deformation and failure of high adhesive thin layer polymer mortared masonry exhibiting failure of units and mortar. Plastic flow vectors are explicitly integrated within the implicit finite element framework instead of relying on predictor–corrector like approaches. The method is calibrated using experimental data from uniaxial compression, shear triplet and flexural beam tests. The model is validated using a thin layer mortared masonry shear wall, whose experimental datasets are reported in the literature and is used to examine the behaviour of thin layer mortared masonry under biaxial loading.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making