Essays on market design and regulation in electricity systems

This thesis discusses market design and regulation in electricity systems, focusing on the information exchange of the regulated grid firm and the generation firms as well as the regulation of the grid firm. In the first chapter, an economic framework is developed to consistently analyze different market designs and the information exchange between the grid firm and the generation firms. Perfect competition between the generation firms and perfect regulation of the grid firm is assumed. A numerical algorithm is developed and its feasibility demonstrated on a large-scale problem. The effects of different market designs for the Central Western European (CWE) region until 2030 are analyzed. In the second chapter, the consequences of restricted grid expansion within the current market design in the CWE region until 2030 are analyzed. In the third chapter the assumption of efficient markets is modified. The focus of the analysis is then, whether and how inefficiencies in information availability and processing affect different market designs. For different parameter settings, nodal and zonal pricing are compared regarding their welfare in the spot and forward market. In the fourth chapter, information asymmetries between the regulator and the regulated firm are analyzed. The optimal regulatory strategy for a firm, providing one output with two substitutable inputs, is defined. Thereby, one input and the absolute quantity of inputs is not observable for the regulator. The result is then compared to current regulatory approaches.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Music and faith: The religious scene in the Brazilian phonographic market

This text discusses the phonographic segment of religious music in Brazil in its two main manifestations, linked respectively to the Catholic and Protestant traditions. The text offers a brief history of both traditions, as well as a description of their main recording companies and artists of greatest prominence. In its final part. the text presents the strategies that bring together recording companies and independent artists, as well as ponders over Brazil`s independent musical production as a whole.

FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET

This article discusses the main aspects of the Brazilian real estate market in order to illustrate if it would be attractive for a typical American real estate investor to buy office-building portfolios in Brazil. The article emphasizes: [i] - the regulatory frontiers, comparing investment securitization, using a typical American REIT structure, with the Brazilian solution, using the Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - FII; [ii] - the investment quality attributes in the Brazilian market, using an office building prototype, and [iii] - the comparison of [risk vs. yield] generated by an investment in the Brazilian market, using a FII, benchmarked against an existing REIT (OFFICE SUB-SECTOR) in the USA market. We conclude that investing dollars exchanged for Reais [the Brazilian currency] in a FII with a triple A office-building portfolio in the Sao Paulo marketplace will yield an annual income and a premium return above an American REIT investment. The highly aggressive scenario, along with the strong persistent exchange rate detachment to the IGP-M variations, plus instabilities affecting the generation of income, and even if we adopt a 300-point margin for the Brazil-Risk level, demonstrates that an investment opportunity in the Brazilian market, in the segment we have analyzed, outperforms an equivalent investment in the American market.

Sampled Control for Mean-Variance Hedging in a Jump Diffusion Financial Market

In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.

Incidence of black spot in citrus fruits from different processing stages in packinghouses and from Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this work were a) to evaluate citrus black spot (CBS) incidence in `Valencia` oranges and `Murcott` tangors aimed at the export market, and in Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors, aimed at the domestic market after different processing stages in packinghouses in 2004/05 and 2005/06; b) to evaluate CBS incidence in Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangors sold at Ceagesp-SP, the biggest wholesale market in the State of Sao Paulo, in 2006. Citrus fruits were collected at the packinghouse, on their arrival, after pre-washing and de-greening, from the packing table, from the pallet and at Ceagesp. They were stored for 14 to 21 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of CBS was visually evaluated after one day and at the end of the storage period. CBS incidence in fruits aimed at the export market decreased, with values under 2.0% on arrival and no CBS symptoms observed on fruits from the pallet. The average incidence of CBS in `Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors in the packinghouse aimed at the domestic market were 64.1, 39.0, 32.1 and 19.3%, respectively, after one day of storage, then remaining constant in all processing stages. The incidence of CBS in Ceagesp fruits was low in winter months and increased in the spring. The increase in disease incidence during the storage period (21 days) was not significant in collected fruits.

Postharvest diseases in citrus and characterization of the fungal population in Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this workwere to characterize postharvest injuries and to evaluate the physicochemical characteristics of`Nra` and `Lima`oranges and `Murcott` tangor at Ceagesp market, as well as to characterize the environmental mycoflora in retail points at Ceagesp in 2006. Fruits collected at retail points were stored for 14 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of injuries was visually evaluated every three days. The physicochemical characteristics analyzed were titratable acidity and soluble solids amount. The environmental mycoflora was sampled according to the gravimetric method, using Petri dishes containing potato-dextrose-agar medium+pentabiotic opened for two minutes. The average rot incidences in `Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangor were 12.8, 14.9 and 25.8%, respectively, at the end of the storage period, and green mold was the main postharvest disease. Associations between physicochemical parameters and rot incidence was, in general, not significant. The environmental fungal population varied significantly between the sampling months in retail points with an average of 25.3 cfu/plate. Penicillium and Cladosporium were the most recorded genera of fungi. Positive correlation (r=0.96) was observed between frequency of P digitatum found in the environment of retail points and the green mold in on-sale fruits of `Pera` orange. However, for `Lima` orange and `Murcott` tangor such a correlation was not verified.

Stone fruit injuries and damage at the wholesale market of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Mechanical injuries and diseases in stone fruit are important causes for market rejection. The objectives of this research were to quantify and characterize the mechanical injuries and diseases in peaches, nectarines and plums at Sao Paulo`s wholesale market, the largest in Brazil. Incidence of injuries was assessed weekly in 1 % of the marketed fruit (2973 fruit/week), from September to December in 2003 and 2004. Mechanical injuries were the most frequent injuries in both years, ranging from 8.73% (plum) to 44.5% (nectarine) of injured fruit. There was a significant positive correlation between the incidence of postharvest mechanical injuries and postharvest diseases. Incidence of postharvest diseases varied from 2.5% to 6.6%. Cladosporium rot (Cladosporium sp.) and brown rot (Monilinia fructicola) were the most frequent diseases, and were mostly detected in the apexes of nectarines and peaches. Aurora (peach), Sunraycer (nectarine) and Gulfblaze (plum) varieties were the most susceptible to injuries and diseases. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the competitiveness of loss allocation methods in a deregulated electricity market

This paper critically assesses several loss allocation methods based on the type of competition each method promotes. This understanding assists in determining which method will promote more efficient network operations when implemented in deregulated electricity industries. The methods addressed in this paper include the pro rata [1], proportional sharing [2], loss formula [3], incremental [4], and a new method proposed by the authors of this paper, which is loop-based [5]. These methods are tested on a modified Nordic 32-bus network, where different case studies of different operating points are investigated. The varying results obtained for each allocation method at different operating points make it possible to distinguish methods that promote unhealthy competition from those that encourage better system operation.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

APSR Market Day

Notes for presentation

What are the economic prospects of developing aquaculture in Queensland to supply the low price white fillet market? Lessons from the US channel catfish industry

The farming of channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) is the largest (by volume and value) and most successful (in terms of market impact) aquaculture industry in the United States of America. Farmed channel catfish is the most consumed (in terms of volume per capita) fish fillet in the U.S. market. Within Australia, it has long been suggested by researchers and industry that silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus) and possibly other endemic teraponid species possess similar biological attributes for aquaculture as channel catfish and may have the potential to generate a similar industry. The current teraponid industry in Australia, however, shows very little resemblance to the catfish industry, either in production style or market philosophy. A well established budget framework from the literature on U.S. channel catfish farming has been adapted for cost and climate conditions of the Burdekin region, Queensland, Australia. Breakeven prices for the hypothetical teraponid farms were found to be up to 50% higher than those published for catfish farms however were much lower than those reported for silver perch production in Australia using current, endemic styles of production. The breakeven prices for the hypothetical teraponid farms were most sensitive (in order of significance) to feed prices, production rates, interest rates, fingerling prices and electricity prices. At equivalent feed costs the costs of production between the hypothetical catfish farms in the Mississippi, U.S. and the hypothetical teraponid farms in the Burdekin, Australia were remarkably similar. The cost of feeds suitable for teraponid production in Australia are currently around double that of catfish feeds in the U.S. Issues currently hindering the development of a large scale teraponid industry in Australia are discussed.