A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.

Multilevel analysis for a longitudinal clinical trial

This study applies the multilevel analysis technique to longitudinal data of a large clinical trial. The technique accounts for the correlation at different levels when modeling repeated blood pressure measurements taken throughout the trial. This modeling allows for closer inspection of the remaining correlation and non-homogeneity of variance in the data. Three methods of modeling the correlation were compared. ^

Psychosocial morbidity in women with abnormal cervical cytology managed by cytological surveillance or initial colposcopy : longitudinal analysis from the TOMBOLA randomised trial

We are grateful for the co-operation and assistance that we received from NHS staff in the co-ordinating centres and clinical sites. We thank the women who participated in TOMBOLA. The TOMBOLA trial was supported by the Medical Research Council (G9700808) and the NHS in England and Scotland. The TOMBOLA Group comprises the following: Grant-holders: University of Aberdeen and NHS Grampian, Aberdeen, Scotland: Maggie Cruickshank, Graeme Murray, David Parkin, Louise Smart, Eric Walker, Norman Waugh (Principal Investigator 2004–2008) University of Nottingham and Nottingham NHS, Nottingham, England: Mark Avis, Claire Chilvers, Katherine Fielding, Rob Hammond, David Jenkins, Jane Johnson, Keith Neal, Ian Russell, Rashmi Seth, Dave Whynes University of Dundee and NHS Tayside, Dundee, Tayside: Ian Duncan, Alistair Robertson (deceased) University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada: Julian Little (Principal Investigator 1999–2004) National Cancer Registry, Cork, Ireland: Linda Sharp Bangor University, Bangor, Wales: Ian Russell University of Hull, Hull, England: Leslie G Walker Staff in clinical sites and co-ordinating centres Grampian Breda Anthony, Sarah Bell, Adrienne Bowie, Katrina Brown (deceased), Joe Brown, Kheng Chew, Claire Cochran, Seonaidh Cotton, Jeannie Dean, Kate Dunn, Jane Edwards, David Evans, Julie Fenty, Al Finlayson, Marie Gallagher, Nicola Gray, Maureen Heddle, Alison Innes, Debbie Jobson, Mandy Keillor, Jayne MacGregor, Sheona Mackenzie, Amanda Mackie, Gladys McPherson, Ike Okorocha, Morag Reilly, Joan Rodgers, Alison Thornton, Rachel Yeats Tayside Lindyanne Alexander, Lindsey Buchanan, Susan Henderson, Tine Iterbeke, Susanneke Lucas, Gillian Manderson, Sheila Nicol, Gael Reid, Carol Robinson, Trish Sandilands Nottingham Marg Adrian, Ahmed Al-Sahab, Elaine Bentley, Hazel Brook, Claire Bushby, Rita Cannon, Brenda Cooper, Ruth Dowell, Mark Dunderdale, Dr Gabrawi, Li Guo, Lisa Heideman, Steve Jones, Salli Lawson, Zoë Philips, Christopher Platt, Shakuntala Prabhakaran, John Rippin, Rose Thompson, Elizabeth Williams, Claire Woolley Statistical analysis Seonaidh Cotton, Kirsten Harrild, John Norrie, Linda Sharp External Trial Steering Committee Nicholas Day (chair, 1999–2004), Theresa Marteau (chair 2004-), Mahesh Parmar, Julietta Patnick and Ciaran Woodman.

The NOURISH randomised control trial : positive feeding practices and food preferences in early childhood - a primary prevention program for childhood obesity

Background Primary prevention of childhood overweight is an international priority. In Australia 20-25% of 2-8 year olds are already overweight. These children are at substantially increased the risk of becoming overweight adults, with attendant increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Early feeding practices determine infant exposure to food (type, amount, frequency) and include responses (eg coercion) to infant feeding behaviour (eg. food refusal). There is correlational evidence linking parenting style and early feeding practices to child eating behaviour and weight status. A focus on early feeding is consistent with the national focus on early childhood as the foundation for life-long health and well being. The NOURISH trial aims to implement and evaluate a community-based intervention to promote early feeding practices that will foster healthy food preferences and intake and preserve the innate capacity to self-regulate food intake in young children. Methods/Design This randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to recruit 820 first-time mothers and their healthy term infants. A consecutive sample of eligible mothers will be approached postnatally at major maternity hospitals in Brisbane and Adelaide. Initial consent will be for re-contact for full enrolment when the infants are 4-7 months old. Individual mother- infant dyads will be randomised to usual care or the intervention. The intervention will provide anticipatory guidance via two modules of six fortnightly parent education and peer support group sessions, each followed by six months of regular maintenance contact. The modules will commence when the infants are aged 4-7 and 13-16 months to coincide with establishment of solid feeding, and autonomy and independence, respectively. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, with follow up at nine and 18 months. These will include infant intake (type and amount of foods), food preferences, feeding behaviour and growth and self-reported maternal feeding practices and parenting practices and efficacy. Covariates will include sociodemographics, infant feeding mode and temperament, maternal weight status and weight concern and child care exposure. Discussion Despite the strong rationale to focus on parents’ early feeding practices as a key determinant of child food preferences, intake and self-regulatory capacity, prospective longitudinal and intervention studies are rare. This trial will be amongst to provide Level II evidence regarding the impact of an intervention (commencing prior to age 12 months) on children’s eating patterns and behaviours. Trial Registration: ACTRN12608000056392

Reference bias : presentation of extreme health states prior to EQ-VAS improves health-related quality of life scores. A randomised crossover trial.

Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au

Associations between parenting behaviours and feeding beliefs of first-time Australian mothers in the NOURISH obesity prevention trial

Purpose: Parenting style and early feeding practices have been linked to child intake, eating behaviour and weight status. The purpose of this study was to examine associations between general maternal parenting behaviours and feeding beliefs in Australian mothers of 11-17 month-old children. Methods: This cross-sectional analysis included 223 first-time mothers and their children (49% male, mean age 14 [sd 1] months) enrolled in the control group of the NOURISH trial. Mothers self-reported their feeding beliefs and parenting behaviours (overprotection, irritability, warmth, autonomy-encouraging) using modified questions from the Infant Feeding Questionnaire (Baughcum, 2001) and the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Multiple regression analyses were conducted, using feeding beliefs (four factors) as dependent and parenting behaviours as independent variables while adjusting for child gender, age, weight-for-age z-score and maternal age, education level, feeding mode (breast vs. non-breast), and perception of own pre-pregnancy and child weight status. Results/Findings: Two of four parenting behaviours were significantly associated with feeding beliefs. Maternal warmth was inversely associated with concerns that the child would become underweight (β=-0.156, p=0.022) and positively associated with mothers’ awareness of child’s hunger/satiety cues (β=0.303, p<0.001). Mothers’ overprotection was positively associated with concerns that the child would become underweight (β=0.213, p=0.001); become overweight (β=0.174, p=0.005); and mother’s responsive feeding (β=0.135, p=0.057). Weight-for-age z-score, mothers’ perception of their child and own weight status, education, feeding mode, and child’s age were significant covariates. Conclusions: Feeding occurs within the broader parenting context. Improving early feeding beliefs and practices may require addressing mother’s approaches to parenting, especially warmth and overprotection.

A framework to better understand emotional experiences with portable interactive devices : preliminary trial

Two longitudinal experiments were conducted exploring emotional experiences with PIDs over six months including media and medial Portable Interactive Devices (PIDs). Results identifying the impact of negative social and personal interactions on the overall emotional experience as well as different task categories (Features, Functional, Mediation and Auxiliary) and their corresponding emotional responses have previously been reported [2,3,4,5]. This paper builds on these findings and presents the Designing for Evolving Emotional Experience (DE3) framework promoting positive (and deals with negative) emotional experiences with PIDs including a set of principles to better understand emotional experiences. To validate the DE3 framework a preliminary trial was conducted with five practicing industrial designers. The trial required them to consider initial design concepts using the DE3 framework followed by a questionnaire asking about their use of the framework for concept development. The trial aimed to analyse the effectiveness, efficiency and usefulness of the framework in assisting in the development of initial concepts for PIDs taking into account emotional experiences. Common themes regarding the framework are outlined including the ease of use, the effectiveness in focusing on the personal and social contexts and positive ratings regarding its use. Overall the feedback from the preliminary trial was encouraging with responses suggesting that the framework was accessible, rated highly and most importantly permitted designers to consider emotional experiences during concept development. The paper concludes with a discussion regarding the future development of the DE3 framework and the potential implications to design theory and the design discipline.

Randomized clinical trial of the timing it right stroke family support program: Research protocol

Background Family caregivers provide invaluable support to stroke survivors during their recovery, rehabilitation, and community re-integration. Unfortunately, it is not standard clinical practice to prepare and support caregivers in this role and, as a result, many experience stress and poor health that can compromise stroke survivor recovery and threaten the sustainability of keeping the stroke survivor at home. We developed the Timing it Right Stroke Family Support Program (TIRSFSP) to guide the timing of delivering specific types of education and support to meet caregivers' evolving needs. The objective of this multi-site randomized controlled trial is to determine if delivering the TIRSFSP across the stroke care continuum improves caregivers' sense of being supported and emotional well-being. Methods/design Our multi-site single-blinded randomized controlled trial will recruit 300 family caregivers of stroke survivors from urban and rural acute care hospitals. After completing a baseline assessment, participants will be randomly allocated to one of three groups: 1) TIRSFSP guided by a stroke support person (health care professional with stroke care experience), delivered in-person during acute care and by telephone for approximately the first six to 12 months post-stroke; 2) caregiver self-directed TIRSFSP with an initial introduction to the program by a stroke support person, or; 3) standard care receiving the educational resource "Let's Talk about Stroke" prepared by the Heart and Stroke Foundation. Participants will complete three follow-up quantitative assessments 3, 6, and 12-months post-stroke. These include assessments of depression, social support, psychological well-being, stroke knowledge, mastery (sense of control over life), caregiving assistance provided, caregiving impact on everyday life, and indicators of stroke severity and disability. Qualitative methods will also be used to obtain information about caregivers' experiences with the education and support received and the impact on caregivers' perception of being supported and emotional well-being. Discussion This research will determine if the TIRSFSP benefits family caregivers by improving their perception of being supported and emotional well-being. If proven effective, it could be recommended as a model of stroke family education and support that meets the Canadian Stroke Best Practice Guideline recommendation for providing timely education and support to families through transitions.

Smooth bootstrap methods for analysis of longitudinal data

In analysis of longitudinal data, the variance matrix of the parameter estimates is usually estimated by the 'sandwich' method, in which the variance for each subject is estimated by its residual products. We propose smooth bootstrap methods by perturbing the estimating functions to obtain 'bootstrapped' realizations of the parameter estimates for statistical inference. Our extensive simulation studies indicate that the variance estimators by our proposed methods can not only correct the bias of the sandwich estimator but also improve the confidence interval coverage. We applied the proposed method to a data set from a clinical trial of antibiotics for leprosy.

A modified pseudolikelihood approach for analysis of longitudinal data

We consider the analysis of longitudinal data when the covariance function is modeled by additional parameters to the mean parameters. In general, inconsistent estimators of the covariance (variance/correlation) parameters will be produced when the "working" correlation matrix is misspecified, which may result in great loss of efficiency of the mean parameter estimators (albeit the consistency is preserved). We consider using different "Working" correlation models for the variance and the mean parameters. In particular, we find that an independence working model should be used for estimating the variance parameters to ensure their consistency in case the correlation structure is misspecified. The designated "working" correlation matrices should be used for estimating the mean and the correlation parameters to attain high efficiency for estimating the mean parameters. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed algorithm performs very well. We also applied different estimation procedures to a data set from a clinical trial for illustration.

The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ-28): A parsimonious version validated for longitudinal use from 2-5 years

Prospective studies and intervention evaluations that examine change over time assume that measurement tools measure the same construct at each occasion. In the area of parent-child feeding practices, longitudinal measurement properties of the questionnaires used are rarely verified. To ascertain that measured change in feeding practices reflects true change rather than change in the assessment, structure, or conceptualisation of the constructs over time, this study examined longitudinal measurement invariance of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) subscales (9 constructs; 40 items) across 3 time points. Mothers participating in the NOURISH trial reported their feeding practices when children were aged 2, 3.7, and 5 years (N = 404). Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) within a structural equation modelling framework was used. Comparisons of initial cross-sectional models followed by longitudinal modelling of subscales, resulted in the removal of 12 items, including two redundant or poorly performing subscales. The resulting 28-item FPSQ-28 comprised 7 multi-item subscales: Reward for Behaviour, Reward for Eating, Persuasive Feeding, Overt Restriction, Covert Restriction, Structured Meal Setting and Structured Meal Timing. All subscales showed good fit over 3 time points and each displayed at least partial scalar (thresholds equal) longitudinal measurement invariance. We recommend the use of a separate single item indicator to assess the family meal setting. This is the first study to examine longitudinal measurement invariance in a feeding practices questionnaire. Invariance was established, indicating that the subscales of the shortened FPSQ-28 can be used with mothers to validly assess change in 7 feeding constructs in samples of children aged 2-5 years of age.

Scientific writing: a randomized controlled trial comparing standard and on-line instruction.

BACKGROUND: Writing plays a central role in the communication of scientific ideas and is therefore a key aspect in researcher education, ultimately determining the success and long-term sustainability of their careers. Despite the growing popularity of e-learning, we are not aware of any existing study comparing on-line vs. traditional classroom-based methods for teaching scientific writing. METHODS: Forty eight participants from a medical, nursing and physiotherapy background from US and Brazil were randomly assigned to two groups (n = 24 per group): An on-line writing workshop group (on-line group), in which participants used virtual communication, google docs and standard writing templates, and a standard writing guidance training (standard group) where participants received standard instruction without the aid of virtual communication and writing templates. Two outcomes, manuscript quality was assessed using the scores obtained in Six subgroup analysis scale as the primary outcome measure, and satisfaction scores with Likert scale were evaluated. To control for observer variability, inter-observer reliability was assessed using Fleiss's kappa. A post-hoc analysis comparing rates of communication between mentors and participants was performed. Nonparametric tests were used to assess intervention efficacy. RESULTS: Excellent inter-observer reliability among three reviewers was found, with an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) agreement = 0.931882 and ICC consistency = 0.932485. On-line group had better overall manuscript quality (p = 0.0017, SSQSavg score 75.3 +/- 14.21, ranging from 37 to 94) compared to the standard group (47.27 +/- 14.64, ranging from 20 to 72). Participant satisfaction was higher in the on-line group (4.3 +/- 0.73) compared to the standard group (3.09 +/- 1.11) (p = 0.001). The standard group also had fewer communication events compared to the on-line group (0.91 +/- 0.81 vs. 2.05 +/- 1.23; p = 0.0219). CONCLUSION: Our protocol for on-line scientific writing instruction is better than standard face-to-face instruction in terms of writing quality and student satisfaction. Future studies should evaluate the protocol efficacy in larger longitudinal cohorts involving participants from different languages.

Adaptive intervention design in mobile health: Intervention design and development in the Cell Phone Intervention for You trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The obesity epidemic has spread to young adults, and obesity is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The prominence and increasing functionality of mobile phones may provide an opportunity to deliver longitudinal and scalable weight management interventions in young adults. The aim of this article is to describe the design and development of the intervention tested in the Cell Phone Intervention for You study and to highlight the importance of adaptive intervention design that made it possible. The Cell Phone Intervention for You study was a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored, controlled, 24-month randomized clinical trial comparing two active interventions to a usual-care control group. Participants were 365 overweight or obese (body mass index≥25 kg/m2) young adults. METHODS: Both active interventions were designed based on social cognitive theory and incorporated techniques for behavioral self-management and motivational enhancement. Initial intervention development occurred during a 1-year formative phase utilizing focus groups and iterative, participatory design. During the intervention testing, adaptive intervention design, where an intervention is updated or extended throughout a trial while assuring the delivery of exactly the same intervention to each cohort, was employed. The adaptive intervention design strategy distributed technical work and allowed introduction of novel components in phases intended to help promote and sustain participant engagement. Adaptive intervention design was made possible by exploiting the mobile phone's remote data capabilities so that adoption of particular application components could be continuously monitored and components subsequently added or updated remotely. RESULTS: The cell phone intervention was delivered almost entirely via cell phone and was always-present, proactive, and interactive-providing passive and active reminders, frequent opportunities for knowledge dissemination, and multiple tools for self-tracking and receiving tailored feedback. The intervention changed over 2 years to promote and sustain engagement. The personal coaching intervention, alternatively, was primarily personal coaching with trained coaches based on a proven intervention, enhanced with a mobile application, but where all interactions with the technology were participant-initiated. CONCLUSION: The complexity and length of the technology-based randomized clinical trial created challenges in engagement and technology adaptation, which were generally discovered using novel remote monitoring technology and addressed using the adaptive intervention design. Investigators should plan to develop tools and procedures that explicitly support continuous remote monitoring of interventions to support adaptive intervention design in long-term, technology-based studies, as well as developing the interventions themselves.

Prevalence and incidence of liver enzyme elevations in a pooled oncology clinical trial cohort.

Few epidemiologic studies describe longitudinal liver chemistry (LC) elevations in cancer patients. A population-based retrospective cohort was identified from 31 Phase 2-3 oncology trials (excluding targeted therapies) conducted from 1985 to 2005 to evaluate background rates of LC elevations in patients (n = 3998) with or without liver metastases. Patients with baseline liver metastases (29% of patients) presented with a 3% prevalence of alanine transaminase (ALT) ≥ 3x upper limits normal (ULN) and 0.2% prevalence of bilirubin ≥ 3xULN. During follow-up, the incidence (per 1000 person-months) of new onset ALT elevations ≥3xULN was 6.1 (95% CI: 4.5, 8.0) and 2.2 (95% CI: 0.9, 4.5) in patients without and with liver metastases, respectively. No new incident cases of ALT and bilirubin elevations suggestive of severe liver injury occurred among those with liver metastases; a single case occurred among those without metastasis. Regardless of the presence of liver metastases, LC elevations were rare in cancer patients during oncology trials, which may be due to enrollment criteria. Our study validates uniform thresholds for detection of LC elevations in oncology studies and serves as an empirical referent point for comparing liver enzyme abnormalities in oncology trials of novel targeted therapies. These data support uniform LC stopping criteria in oncology trials.

Secondary Outcomes in a Clinical Trial of Carotenoids with Coantioxidants versus Placebo in Early Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Purpose: To report the secondary outcomes in the Carotenoids with Coantioxidants in Age-Related Maculopathy trial.

Design: Randomized double-masked placebo-controlled clinical trial (registered as ISRCTN 94557601).

Participants: Participants included 433 adults 55 years of age or older with early age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in 1 eye and late-stage disease in the fellow eye (group 1) or early AMD in both eyes (group 2).

Intervention: An oral preparation containing lutein (L), zeaxanthin (Z), vitamin C, vitamin E, copper, and zinc or placebo. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), contrast sensitivity (CS), Raman spectroscopy, stereoscopic colour fundus photography, and serum sampling were performed every 6 months with a minimum follow-up time of 12 months.

Main Outcome Measures: Secondary outcomes included differences in BCVA (at 24 and 36 months), CS, Raman counts, serum antioxidant levels, and progression along the AMD severity scale (at 12, 24, and 36 months).

Results: The differential between active and placebo groups increased steadily, with average BCVA in the former being approximately 4.8 letters better than the latter for those who had 36 months of follow-up, and this difference was statistically significant (P = 0.04). In the longitudinal analysis, for a 1-log-unit increase in serum L, visual acuity was better by 1.4 letters (95% confidence interval, 0.3-2.5; P = 0.01), and a slower progression along a morphologic severity scale (P = 0.014) was observed.

Conclusions: Functional and morphologic benefits were observed in key secondary outcomes after supplementation with L, Z, and coantioxidants in persons with early AMD.

Financial Disclosure(s): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article. © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology.