Modeling Multivariate Interest Rates Using Time-Varying Copulas and Reducible Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations

We propose a new approach for modeling nonlinear multivariate interest rate processes based on time-varying copulas and reducible stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In the modeling of the marginal processes, we consider a class of nonlinear SDEs that are reducible to Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) process or Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) (CIR) process. The reducibility is achieved via a nonlinear transformation function. The main advantage of this approach is that these SDEs can account for nonlinear features, observed in short-term interest rate series, while at the same time leading to exact discretization and closed-form likelihood functions. Although a rich set of specifications may be entertained, our exposition focuses on a couple of nonlinear constant elasticity volatility (CEV) processes, denoted as OU-CEV and CIR-CEV, respectively. These two processes encompass a number of existing models that have closed-form likelihood functions. The transition density, the conditional distribution function, and the steady-state density function are derived in closed form as well as the conditional and unconditional moments for both processes. In order to obtain a more flexible functional form over time, we allow the transformation function to be time varying. Results from our study of U.S. and UK short-term interest rates suggest that the new models outperform existing parametric models with closed-form likelihood functions. We also find the time-varying effects in the transformation functions statistically significant. To examine the joint behavior of interest rate series, we propose flexible nonlinear multivariate models by joining univariate nonlinear processes via appropriate copulas. We study the conditional dependence structure of the two rates using Patton (2006a) time-varying symmetrized Joe--Clayton copula. We find evidence of asymmetric dependence between the two rates, and that the level of dependence is positively related to the level of the two rates. (JEL: C13, C32, G12) Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

The marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine

This paper estimates the marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine using discrete choice modeling. We use primary data from 326 respondents from Bangkok and Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2008–2009, selected using purposive, venue-based sampling across two strata. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and full rank discrete choice modeling task administered using computer-assisted personal interviewing. The choice experiment was used to rank eight hypothetical HIV vaccine scenarios, with each scenario comprising seven attributes (including cost) each of which had two levels. The data were analyzed in two alternative specifications: (1) best-worst; and (2) full-rank, using logit likelihood functions estimated with custom routines in Gauss matrix programming language. In the full-rank specification, all vaccine attributes are significant predictors of probability of vaccine choice. The biomedical attributes of the hypothetical HIV vaccine (efficacy, absence of VISP, absence of side effects, and duration of effect) are the most important attributes for HIV vaccine choice. On average respondents are more than twice as likely to accept a vaccine with 99% efficacy, than a vaccine with 50% efficacy. This translates to a willingness to pay US$383 more for a high efficacy vaccine compared with the low efficacy vaccine. Knowledge of the relative importance of determinants of HIV vaccine acceptability is important to ensure the success of future vaccination programs. Future acceptability studies of hypothetical HIV vaccines should use more finely grained biomedical attributes, and could also improve the external validity of results by including more levels of the cost attribute.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Oligocene CO2 decline promoted C4 photosynthesis in grasses.

C4 photosynthesis is an adaptation derived from the more common C3 photosynthetic pathway that confers a higher productivity under warm temperature and low atmospheric CO2 concentration [1, 2]. C4 evolution has been seen as a consequence of past atmospheric CO2 decline, such as the abrupt CO2 fall 32-25 million years ago (Mya) [3-6]. This relationship has never been tested rigorously, mainly because of a lack of accurate estimates of divergence times for the different C4 lineages [3]. In this study, we inferred a large phylogenetic tree for the grass family and estimated, through Bayesian molecular dating, the ages of the 17 to 18 independent grass C4 lineages. The first transition from C3 to C4 photosynthesis occurred in the Chloridoideae subfamily, 32.0-25.0 Mya. The link between CO2 decrease and transition to C4 photosynthesis was tested by a novel maximum likelihood approach. We showed that the model incorporating the atmospheric CO2 levels was significantly better than the null model, supporting the importance of CO2 decline on C4 photosynthesis evolvability. This finding is relevant for understanding the origin of C4 photosynthesis in grasses, which is one of the most successful ecological and evolutionary innovations in plant history.

Efficient estimation using the characteristic function : theory and applications with high frequency data

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A comparative review of dimension reduction methods in approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods make use of comparisons between simulated and observed summary statistics to overcome the problem of computationally intractable likelihood functions. As the practical implementation of ABC requires computations based on vectors of summary statistics, rather than full data sets, a central question is how to derive low-dimensional summary statistics from the observed data with minimal loss of information. In this article we provide a comprehensive review and comparison of the performance of the principal methods of dimension reduction proposed in the ABC literature. The methods are split into three nonmutually exclusive classes consisting of best subset selection methods, projection techniques and regularization. In addition, we introduce two new methods of dimension reduction. The first is a best subset selection method based on Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and the second uses ridge regression as a regularization procedure. We illustrate the performance of these dimension reduction techniques through the analysis of three challenging models and data sets.

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

Strong selection against hybrids at a hybrid zone in the Ensatina ring species complex and its evolutionary implications

The analysis of interactions between lineages at varying levels of genetic divergence can provide insights into the process of speciation through the accumulation of incompatible mutations. Ring species, and especially the Ensatina eschscholtzii system exemplify this approach. The plethodontid salamanders E. eschscholtzii xanthoptica and E. eschscholtzii platensis hybridize in the central Sierran foothills of California. We compared the genetic structure across two transects (southern and northern Calaveras Co.), one of which was resampled over 20 years, and examined diagnostic molecular markers (eight allozyme loci and mitochondrial DNA) and a diagnostic quantitative trait (color pattern). Key results across all studies were: (1) cline centers for all markers were coincident and the zones were narrow, with width estimates of 730 m to 2000 m; (2) cline centers at the northern Calaveras transect were coincident between 1981 and 2001, demonstrating repeatability over five generations; (3) there were very few if any putative F1s, but a relatively high number of backcrossed individuals in the central portion of transects: and (4) we found substantial linkage disequilibrium in all three studies and strong heterozygote deficit both in northern Calaveras, in 2001, and southern Calaveras. Both linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote deficit showed maximum values near the center of the zones. Using estimates of cline width and dispersal, we infer strong selection against hybrids. This is sufficient to promote accumulation of differences at loci that are neutral or under divergent selection, but would still allow for introgression of adaptive alleles. The evidence for strong but incomplete isolation across this centrally located contact is consistent with theory suggesting a gradual increase in postzygotic incompatibility between allopatric populations subject to divergent selection and reinforces the value of Ensatina as a system for the study of divergence and speciation at multiple stages. © 2005 The Society for the Study of Evolution. All rights reserved.

Solving the Levins' paradox in the logistic model to the population growth

We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Essays on Bayesian Inference for Social Networks

This thesis presents Bayesian solutions to inference problems for three types of social network data structures: a single observation of a social network, repeated observations on the same social network, and repeated observations on a social network developing through time. A social network is conceived as being a structure consisting of actors and their social interaction with each other. A common conceptualisation of social networks is to let the actors be represented by nodes in a graph with edges between pairs of nodes that are relationally tied to each other according to some definition. Statistical analysis of social networks is to a large extent concerned with modelling of these relational ties, which lends itself to empirical evaluation. The first paper deals with a family of statistical models for social networks called exponential random graphs that takes various structural features of the network into account. In general, the likelihood functions of exponential random graphs are only known up to a constant of proportionality. A procedure for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is presented. The algorithm consists of two basic steps, one in which an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings up-dating step is used, and another in which an importance sampling scheme is used to calculate the acceptance probability of the Metropolis-Hastings step. In paper number two a method for modelling reports given by actors (or other informants) on their social interaction with others is investigated in a Bayesian framework. The model contains two basic ingredients: the unknown network structure and functions that link this unknown network structure to the reports given by the actors. These functions take the form of probit link functions. An intrinsic problem is that the model is not identified, meaning that there are combinations of values on the unknown structure and the parameters in the probit link functions that are observationally equivalent. Instead of using restrictions for achieving identification, it is proposed that the different observationally equivalent combinations of parameters and unknown structure be investigated a posteriori. Estimation of parameters is carried out using Gibbs sampling with a switching devise that enables transitions between posterior modal regions. The main goal of the procedures is to provide tools for comparisons of different model specifications. Papers 3 and 4, propose Bayesian methods for longitudinal social networks. The premise of the models investigated is that overall change in social networks occurs as a consequence of sequences of incremental changes. Models for the evolution of social networks using continuos-time Markov chains are meant to capture these dynamics. Paper 3 presents an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posteriors of parameters for such Markov chains. More specifically, the unobserved evolution of the network in-between observations is explicitly modelled thereby avoiding the need to deal with explicit formulas for the transition probabilities. This enables likelihood based parameter inference in a wider class of network evolution models than has been available before. Paper 4 builds on the proposed inference procedure of Paper 3 and demonstrates how to perform model selection for a class of network evolution models.

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Design and Validation of an Optimized MB-OFDM Ultra Wideband Transceiver System

Esta tesis está incluida dentro del campo del campo de Multiband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Ultra Wideband (MB-OFDM UWB), el cual ha adquirido una gran importancia en las comunicaciones inalámbricas de alta tasa de datos en la última década. UWB surgió con el objetivo de satisfacer la creciente demanda de conexiones inalámbricas en interiores y de uso doméstico, con bajo coste y alta velocidad. La disponibilidad de un ancho de banda grande, el potencial para alta velocidad de transmisión, baja complejidad y bajo consumo de energía, unido al bajo coste de implementación, representa una oportunidad única para que UWB se convierta en una solución ampliamente utilizada en aplicaciones de Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN). UWB está definido como cualquier transmisión que ocupa un ancho de banda de más de 20% de su frecuencia central, o más de 500 MHz. En 2002, la Comisión Federal de Comunicaciones (FCC) definió que el rango de frecuencias de transmisión de UWB legal es de 3.1 a 10.6 GHz, con una energía de transmisión de -41.3 dBm/Hz. Bajo las directrices de FCC, el uso de la tecnología UWB puede aportar una enorme capacidad en las comunicaciones de corto alcance. Considerando las ecuaciones de capacidad de Shannon, incrementar la capacidad del canal requiere un incremento lineal en el ancho de banda, mientras que un aumento similar de la capacidad de canal requiere un aumento exponencial en la energía de transmisión. En los últimos años, s diferentes desarrollos del UWB han sido extensamente estudiados en diferentes áreas, entre los cuales, el protocolo de comunicaciones inalámbricas MB-OFDM UWB está considerado como la mejor elección y ha sido adoptado como estándar ISO/IEC para los WPANs. Combinando la modulación OFDM y la transmisión de datos utilizando las técnicas de salto de frecuencia, el sistema MB-OFDM UWB es capaz de soportar tasas de datos con que pueden variar de los 55 a los 480 Mbps, alcanzando una distancia máxima de hasta 10 metros. Se esperara que la tecnología MB-OFDM tenga un consumo energético muy bajo copando un are muy reducida en silicio, proporcionando soluciones de bajo coste que satisfagan las demandas del mercado. Para cumplir con todas estas expectativas, el desarrollo y la investigación del MBOFDM UWB deben enfrentarse a varios retos, como son la sincronización de alta sensibilidad, las restricciones de baja complejidad, las estrictas limitaciones energéticas, la escalabilidad y la flexibilidad. Tales retos requieren un procesamiento digital de la señal de última generación, capaz de desarrollar sistemas que puedan aprovechar por completo las ventajas del espectro UWB y proporcionar futuras aplicaciones inalámbricas en interiores. Esta tesis se centra en la completa optimización de un sistema de transceptor de banda base MB-OFDM UWB digital, cuyo objetivo es investigar y diseñar un subsistema de comunicación inalámbrica para la aplicación de las Redes de Sensores Inalámbricas Visuales. La complejidad inherente de los procesadores FFT/IFFT y el sistema de sincronización así como la alta frecuencia de operación para todos los elementos de procesamiento, se convierten en el cuello de la botella para el diseño y la implementación del sistema de UWB digital en base de banda basado en MB-OFDM de baja energía. El objetivo del transceptor propuesto es conseguir baja energía y baja complejidad bajo la premisa de un alto rendimiento. Las optimizaciones están realizadas tanto a nivel algorítmico como a nivel arquitectural para todos los elementos del sistema. Una arquitectura hardware eficiente en consumo se propone en primer lugar para aquellos módulos correspondientes a núcleos de computación. Para el procesado de la Transformada Rápida de Fourier (FFT/IFFT), se propone un algoritmo mixed-radix, basado en una arquitectura con pipeline y se ha desarrollado un módulo de Decodificador de Viterbi (VD) equilibrado en coste-velocidad con el objetivo de reducir el consumo energético e incrementar la velocidad de procesamiento. También se ha implementado un correlador signo-bit simple basado en la sincronización del tiempo de símbolo es presentado. Este correlador es usado para detectar y sincronizar los paquetes de OFDM de forma robusta y precisa. Para el desarrollo de los subsitemas de procesamiento y realizar la integración del sistema completo se han empleado tecnologías de última generación. El dispositivo utilizado para el sistema propuesto es una FPGA Virtex 5 XC5VLX110T del fabricante Xilinx. La validación el propuesta para el sistema transceptor se ha implementado en dicha placa de FPGA. En este trabajo se presenta un algoritmo, y una arquitectura, diseñado con filosofía de co-diseño hardware/software para el desarrollo de sistemas de FPGA complejos. El objetivo principal de la estrategia propuesta es de encontrar una metodología eficiente para el diseño de un sistema de FPGA configurable optimizado con el empleo del mínimo esfuerzo posible en el sistema de procedimiento de verificación, por tanto acelerar el periodo de desarrollo del sistema. La metodología de co-diseño presentada tiene la ventaja de ser fácil de usar, contiene todos los pasos desde la propuesta del algoritmo hasta la verificación del hardware, y puede ser ampliamente extendida para casi todos los tipos de desarrollos de FPGAs. En este trabajo se ha desarrollado sólo el sistema de transceptor digital de banda base por lo que la comprobación de señales transmitidas a través del canal inalámbrico en los entornos reales de comunicación sigue requiriendo componentes RF y un front-end analógico. No obstante, utilizando la metodología de co-simulación hardware/software citada anteriormente, es posible comunicar el sistema de transmisor y el receptor digital utilizando los modelos de canales propuestos por IEEE 802.15.3a, implementados en MATLAB. Por tanto, simplemente ajustando las características de cada modelo de canal, por ejemplo, un incremento del retraso y de la frecuencia central, podemos estimar el comportamiento del sistema propuesto en diferentes escenarios y entornos. Las mayores contribuciones de esta tesis son: • Se ha propuesto un nuevo algoritmo 128-puntos base mixto FFT usando la arquitectura pipeline multi-ruta. Los complejos multiplicadores para cada etapa de procesamiento son diseñados usando la arquitectura modificada shiftadd. Los sistemas word length y twiddle word length son comparados y seleccionados basándose en la señal para cuantización del SQNR y el análisis de energías. • El desempeño del procesador IFFT es analizado bajo diferentes situaciones aritméticas de bloques de punto flotante (BFP) para el control de desbordamiento, por tanto, para encontrar la arquitectura perfecta del algoritmo IFFT basado en el procesador FFT propuesto. • Para el sistema de receptor MB-OFDM UWB se ha empleado una sincronización del tiempo innovadora, de baja complejidad y esquema de compensación, que consiste en funciones de Detector de Paquetes (PD) y Estimación del Offset del tiempo. Simplificando el cross-correlation y maximizar las funciones probables solo a sign-bit, la complejidad computacional se ve reducida significativamente. • Se ha propuesto un sistema de decodificadores Viterbi de 64 estados de decisión-débil usando velocidad base-4 de arquitectura suma-comparaselecciona. El algoritmo Two-pointer Even también es introducido en la unidad de rastreador de origen con el objetivo de conseguir la eficiencia en el hardware. • Se han integrado varias tecnologías de última generación en el completo sistema transceptor basebanda , con el objetivo de implementar un sistema de comunicación UWB altamente optimizado. • Un diseño de flujo mejorado es propuesto para el complejo sistema de implementación, el cual puede ser usado para diseños de Cadena de puertas de campo programable general (FPGA). El diseño mencionado no sólo reduce dramáticamente el tiempo para la verificación funcional, sino también provee un análisis automático como los errores del retraso del output para el sistema de hardware implementado. • Un ambiente de comunicación virtual es establecido para la validación del propuesto sistema de transceptores MB-OFDM. Este método es provisto para facilitar el uso y la conveniencia de analizar el sistema digital de basebanda sin parte frontera analógica bajo diferentes ambientes de comunicación. Esta tesis doctoral está organizada en seis capítulos. En el primer capítulo se encuentra una breve introducción al campo del UWB, tanto relacionado con el proyecto como la motivación del desarrollo del sistema de MB-OFDM. En el capítulo 2, se presenta la información general y los requisitos del protocolo de comunicación inalámbrica MBOFDM UWB. En el capítulo 3 se habla de la arquitectura del sistema de transceptor digital MB-OFDM de banda base . El diseño del algoritmo propuesto y la arquitectura para cada elemento del procesamiento está detallado en este capítulo. Los retos de diseño del sistema que involucra un compromiso de discusión entre la complejidad de diseño, el consumo de energía, el coste de hardware, el desempeño del sistema, y otros aspectos. En el capítulo 4, se ha descrito la co-diseñada metodología de hardware/software. Cada parte del flujo del diseño será detallado con algunos ejemplos que se ha hecho durante el desarrollo del sistema. Aprovechando esta estrategia de diseño, el procedimiento de comunicación virtual es llevado a cabo para probar y analizar la arquitectura del transceptor propuesto. Los resultados experimentales de la co-simulación y el informe sintético de la implementación del sistema FPGA son reflejados en el capítulo 5. Finalmente, en el capítulo 6 se incluye las conclusiones y los futuros proyectos, y también los resultados derivados de este proyecto de doctorado. ABSTRACT In recent years, the Wireless Visual Sensor Network (WVSN) has drawn great interest in wireless communication research area. They enable a wealth of new applications such as building security control, image sensing, and target localization. However, nowadays wireless communication protocols (ZigBee, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth for example) cannot fully satisfy the demands of high data rate, low power consumption, short range, and high robustness requirements. New communication protocol is highly desired for such kind of applications. The Ultra Wideband (UWB) wireless communication protocol, which has increased in importance for high data rate wireless communication field, are emerging as an important topic for WVSN research. UWB has emerged as a technology that offers great promise to satisfy the growing demand for low-cost, high-speed digital wireless indoor and home networks. The large bandwidth available, the potential for high data rate transmission, and the potential for low complexity and low power consumption, along with low implementation cost, all present a unique opportunity for UWB to become a widely adopted radio solution for future Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) applications. UWB is defined as any transmission that occupies a bandwidth of more than 20% of its center frequency, or more than 500 MHz. In 2002, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has mandated that UWB radio transmission can legally operate in the range from 3.1 to 10.6 GHz at a transmitter power of －41.3 dBm/Hz. Under the FCC guidelines, the use of UWB technology can provide enormous capacity over short communication ranges. Considering Shannon’s capacity equations, increasing the channel capacity requires linear increasing in bandwidth, whereas similar channel capacity increases would require exponential increases in transmission power. In recent years, several different UWB developments has been widely studied in different area, among which, the MB-OFDM UWB wireless communication protocol is considered to be the leading choice and has recently been adopted in the ISO/IEC standard for WPANs. By combing the OFDM modulation and data transmission using frequency hopping techniques, the MB-OFDM UWB system is able to support various data rates, ranging from 55 to 480 Mbps, over distances up to 10 meters. The MB-OFDM technology is expected to consume very little power and silicon area, as well as provide low-cost solutions that can satisfy consumer market demands. To fulfill these expectations, MB-OFDM UWB research and development have to cope with several challenges, which consist of high-sensitivity synchronization, low- complexity constraints, strict power limitations, scalability, and flexibility. Such challenges require state-of-the-art digital signal processing expertise to develop systems that could fully take advantages of the UWB spectrum and support future indoor wireless applications. This thesis focuses on fully optimization for the MB-OFDM UWB digital baseband transceiver system, aiming at researching and designing a wireless communication subsystem for the Wireless Visual Sensor Networks (WVSNs) application. The inherent high complexity of the FFT/IFFT processor and synchronization system, and high operation frequency for all processing elements, becomes the bottleneck for low power MB-OFDM based UWB digital baseband system hardware design and implementation. The proposed transceiver system targets low power and low complexity under the premise of high performance. Optimizations are made at both algorithm and architecture level for each element of the transceiver system. The low-power hardwareefficient structures are firstly proposed for those core computation modules, i.e., the mixed-radix algorithm based pipelined architecture is proposed for the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT/IFFT) processor, and the cost-speed balanced Viterbi Decoder (VD) module is developed, in the aim of lowering the power consumption and increasing the processing speed. In addition, a low complexity sign-bit correlation based symbol timing synchronization scheme is presented so as to detect and synchronize the OFDM packets robustly and accurately. Moreover, several state-of-the-art technologies are used for developing other processing subsystems and an entire MB-OFDM digital baseband transceiver system is integrated. The target device for the proposed transceiver system is Xilinx Virtex 5 XC5VLX110T FPGA board. In order to validate the proposed transceiver system in the FPGA board, a unified algorithm-architecture-circuit hardware/software co-design environment for complex FPGA system development is presented in this work. The main objective of the proposed strategy is to find an efficient methodology for designing a configurable optimized FPGA system by using as few efforts as possible in system verification procedure, so as to speed up the system development period. The presented co-design methodology has the advantages of easy to use, covering all steps from algorithm proposal to hardware verification, and widely spread for almost all kinds of FPGA developments. Because only the digital baseband transceiver system is developed in this thesis, the validation of transmitting signals through wireless channel in real communication environments still requires the analog front-end and RF components. However, by using the aforementioned hardware/software co-simulation methodology, the transmitter and receiver digital baseband systems get the opportunity to communicate with each other through the channel models, which are proposed from the IEEE 802.15.3a research group, established in MATLAB. Thus, by simply adjust the characteristics of each channel model, e.g. mean excess delay and center frequency, we can estimate the transmission performance of the proposed transceiver system through different communication situations. The main contributions of this thesis are: • A novel mixed radix 128-point FFT algorithm by using multipath pipelined architecture is proposed. The complex multipliers for each processing stage are designed by using modified shift-add architectures. The system wordlength and twiddle word-length are compared and selected based on Signal to Quantization Noise Ratio (SQNR) and power analysis. • IFFT processor performance is analyzed under different Block Floating Point (BFP) arithmetic situations for overflow control, so as to find out the perfect architecture of IFFT algorithm based on the proposed FFT processor. • An innovative low complex timing synchronization and compensation scheme, which consists of Packet Detector (PD) and Timing Offset Estimation (TOE) functions, for MB-OFDM UWB receiver system is employed. By simplifying the cross-correlation and maximum likelihood functions to signbit only, the computational complexity is significantly reduced. • A 64 state soft-decision Viterbi Decoder system by using high speed radix-4 Add-Compare-Select architecture is proposed. Two-pointer Even algorithm is also introduced into the Trace Back unit in the aim of hardware-efficiency. • Several state-of-the-art technologies are integrated into the complete baseband transceiver system, in the aim of implementing a highly-optimized UWB communication system. • An improved design flow is proposed for complex system implementation which can be used for general Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) designs. The design method not only dramatically reduces the time for functional verification, but also provides automatic analysis such as errors and output delays for the implemented hardware systems. • A virtual communication environment is established for validating the proposed MB-OFDM transceiver system. This methodology is proved to be easy for usage and convenient for analyzing the digital baseband system without analog frontend under different communication environments. This PhD thesis is organized in six chapters. In the chapter 1 a brief introduction to the UWB field, as well as the related work, is done, along with the motivation of MBOFDM system development. In the chapter 2, the general information and requirement of MB-OFDM UWB wireless communication protocol is presented. In the chapter 3, the architecture of the MB-OFDM digital baseband transceiver system is presented. The design of the proposed algorithm and architecture for each processing element is detailed in this chapter. Design challenges of such system involve trade-off discussions among design complexity, power consumption, hardware cost, system performance, and some other aspects. All these factors are analyzed and discussed. In the chapter 4, the hardware/software co-design methodology is proposed. Each step of this design flow will be detailed by taking some examples that we met during system development. Then, taking advantages of this design strategy, the Virtual Communication procedure is carried out so as to test and analyze the proposed transceiver architecture. Experimental results from the co-simulation and synthesis report of the implemented FPGA system are given in the chapter 5. The chapter 6 includes conclusions and future work, as well as the results derived from this PhD work.

Evolutionary history of the recruitment of conserved developmental genes in association to the formation and diversification of a novel trait

The origin and modification of novel traits are important aspects of biological diversification. Studies combining concepts and approaches of developmental genetics and evolutionary biology have uncovered many examples of the recruitment, or co-option, of genes conserved across lineages for the formation of novel, lineage-restricted traits. However, little is known about the evolutionary history of the recruitment of those genes, and of the relationship between them -for example, whether the co-option involves whole or parts of existing networks, or whether it occurs by redeployment of individual genes with de novo rewiring. We use a model novel trait, color pattern elements on butterfly wings called eyespots, to explore these questions. Eyespots have greatly diversified under natural and sexual selection, and their formation involves genetic circuitries shared across insects.

Robust automatic mapping algorithms in a network monitoring scenario

Automatically generating maps of a measured variable of interest can be problematic. In this work we focus on the monitoring network context where observations are collected and reported by a network of sensors, and are then transformed into interpolated maps for use in decision making. Using traditional geostatistical methods, estimating the covariance structure of data collected in an emergency situation can be difficult. Variogram determination, whether by method-of-moment estimators or by maximum likelihood, is very sensitive to extreme values. Even when a monitoring network is in a routine mode of operation, sensors can sporadically malfunction and report extreme values. If this extreme data destabilises the model, causing the covariance structure of the observed data to be incorrectly estimated, the generated maps will be of little value, and the uncertainty estimates in particular will be misleading. Marchant and Lark [2007] propose a REML estimator for the covariance, which is shown to work on small data sets with a manual selection of the damping parameter in the robust likelihood. We show how this can be extended to allow treatment of large data sets together with an automated approach to all parameter estimation. The projected process kriging framework of Ingram et al. [2007] is extended to allow the use of robust likelihood functions, including the two component Gaussian and the Huber function. We show how our algorithm is further refined to reduce the computational complexity while at the same time minimising any loss of information. To show the benefits of this method, we use data collected from radiation monitoring networks across Europe. We compare our results to those obtained from traditional kriging methodologies and include comparisons with Box-Cox transformations of the data. We discuss the issue of whether to treat or ignore extreme values, making the distinction between the robust methods which ignore outliers and transformation methods which treat them as part of the (transformed) process. Using a case study, based on an extreme radiological events over a large area, we show how radiation data collected from monitoring networks can be analysed automatically and then used to generate reliable maps to inform decision making. We show the limitations of the methods and discuss potential extensions to remedy these.

The role of parametric assumptions in adaptive Bayesian estimation.

Variants of adaptive Bayesian procedures for estimating the 5% point on a psychometric function were studied by simulation. Bias and standard error were the criteria to evaluate performance. The results indicated a superiority of (a) uniform priors, (b) model likelihood functions that are odd symmetric about threshold and that have parameter values larger than their counterparts in the psychometric function, (c) stimulus placement at the prior mean, and (d) estimates defined as the posterior mean. Unbiasedness arises in only 10 trials, and 20 trials ensure constant standard errors. The standard error of the estimates equals 0.617 times the inverse of the square root of the number of trials. Other variants yielded bias and larger standard errors.