A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

A low dimensional Kalman filter for systems with lagged observables

This note describes how the Kalman filter can be modified to allow for thevector of observables to be a function of lagged variables without increasing the dimensionof the state vector in the filter. This is useful in applications where it is desirable to keepthe dimension of the state vector low. The modified filter and accompanying code (whichnests the standard filter) can be used to compute (i) the steady state Kalman filter (ii) thelog likelihood of a parameterized state space model conditional on a history of observables(iii) a smoothed estimate of latent state variables and (iv) a draw from the distribution oflatent states conditional on a history of observables.

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

eggNOG v4.0: nested orthology inference across 3686 organisms

With the increasing availability of various 'omics data, high-quality orthology assignment is crucial for evolutionary and functional genomics studies. We here present the fourth version of the eggNOG database (available at http://eggnog.embl.de) that derives nonsupervised orthologous groups (NOGs) from complete genomes, and then applies a comprehensive characterization and analysis pipeline to the resulting gene families. Compared with the previous version, we have more than tripled the underlying species set to cover 3686 organisms, keeping track with genome project completions while prioritizing the inclusion of high-quality genomes to minimize error propagation from incomplete proteome sets. Major technological advances include (i) a robust and scalable procedure for the identification and inclusion of high-quality genomes, (ii) provision of orthologous groups for 107 different taxonomic levels compared with 41 in eggNOGv3, (iii) identification and annotation of particularly closely related orthologous groups, facilitating analysis of related gene families, (iv) improvements of the clustering and functional annotation approach, (v) adoption of a revised tree building procedure based on the multiple alignments generated during the process and (vi) implementation of quality control procedures throughout the entire pipeline. As in previous versions, eggNOGv4 provides multiple sequence alignments and maximum-likelihood trees, as well as broad functional annotation. Users can access the complete database of orthologous groups via a web interface, as well as through bulk download.

Aa, Pieter van der

- Käännytystyötä 1500. Kuva s. 9-10 (Luku 5. Useita kastilialaisten ja portugalilaisten matkoja Länsi-Intiaan vuosina 1500 ja 1501, kertonut Antonius de Herrera. Kuvassa käännytystyötä 1500, paikkana St. Cruz)

Aa, Pieter van der

- Americo Vespucci. Kuva s. 17-18 (Luku 4. Alonso d'Ojedan ja Amerikus Vesputiuksen ensimmäinen merimatka ja uuden maan löytäminen Länsi-Intiassa vuonna 1499 (Hispaniola), kertonut Antonius de Herrera.

Nachalnoe ouchenie chelovekom hotjashchim ouchitsja knig bozhestvennago pisanija

[Moskva?] 1723

Markkina-ajattelu kunnallisessa toiminnassa: Case Pietarsaaren tekninen virasto

Diplomityön pääongelmana oli selvittää miten markkina-ajattelu ilmenee Pietarsaaren teknisen viraston toiminnassa. Diplomityön aihe oli saatu toimeksiantona. Tutkimus on luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen tutkimus. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin teemahaastatteluja. Haastateltaviksi valittiin Pietarsaaren kaupungin teknisen viraston ylin johto (kuusi henkilöä) sekä Pietarsaaren kaupungin teknisestä lautakunnasta kolme jäsentä. Markkina-ajattelun katsottiin tutkimuksessa rakentuvan kolmesta osasta: markkinamekanismien hyödyntämisestä kunnallisen palveluntuotannon järjestämisessä, kilpailutuksen käyttämisestä työkaluna ja yritysmäisestä toimintatavasta kunnallisella sektorilla. Tutkimuksen toisena teoreettisena lähtökohtana oli uusi julkisjohtaminen, joka nähtiin kokoelmana instrumentteja julkisen sektorin johtamisen tehostamiseksi. Perusasenteeltaan teknisen viraston haastateltavat antoivat itsestään melko uudistushaluisen kuvan. Palveluiden vaihtoehtoisia järjestämistapoja ei ole vielä organisaatiossa juurikaan sovellettu. Kilpailuttamisen koettiin tuovan pääosin lisätyötä ja haittapuolia toimintaan. Haastateltavat kokivat yrittäjämäisen toimintatavan sisältävän kapeasti lähinnä taloudellisten tavoitteiden tarkempaa seurantaa. Teknisen viraston kilpailemisen yksityisten palveluntuottajien kanssa pitää tulevaisuudessa mahdollisena kaikki kolme teknisestä lautakunnasta haastateltua. Palveluiden vaihtoehtoiset järjestämistavat eivät olleet heille tuttuja. Kilpailutustilanteista lautakunnasta haastatellut kokivat saavansa riittämättömästi informaatiota, mikä johtaa siihen, että halvin tarjous on aina hyväksyttävä.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

Koncentrisk hämning och stimulans av bakterietillväxt i agarkulturer

The aim of this study is to elucidate factors that effect growth of Sarcina lutea and Bacillus subtilis, exposed to the growth inhibitor SDS (Sodiumdodecylsulfat). Agar diffusion experiments revealed repeated, concentric zones of inhibition and stimulation upon exposure to Sodiumdodecylsulphate or to Amoxicillin. Temperature, nutrient concentration and inhibitor concentration were controlled. Formation of successively repeated zones of inhibition, stimulation, inhibition and stimulation is discussed: •The extension of the primary inhibition zone is due to the concentration of applied Sodium dodecyl sulphate.•Immediately outside the primary inhibition zone the bacteria have access to diffusing nutrients that have not been consumed in the primary inhabitation zone.•In zones of dense bacterial growth the bacteria may produce inhibiting substances, affecting growth of bacteria in adjacent zones.•In zones of dense bacterial growth the nutrients will soon become depleted, thus affecting bacteria in adjacent zones.