Shackle on time, uncertainty and process

This paper is intended both as a contribution to the conceptual work on process in economic thought and as an attempt to connect a non-institutionalist, non-evolutionary thinker to it. The paper has two principal objectives: (i) to delineate a broad, philosophically grounded conception of what an economic process theory (EPT) is; and (ii) to locate the contributions of George Shackle within this broad conception of EPT. In pursuing these two objectives, I hope to draw out the originality and significance of Shackle’s economics with a particular emphasis on what he adds to process conceptions developed within other heterodox traditions such as institutional and evolutionary economics. I will also highlight some of the perceived limitations of Shackle’s approach and link them to the limitations of process philosophy.

The evolution and heterogeneity of outward foreign direct investment from Latin America

The PhD dissertation investigates the rise of emerging country multinationals (EMNEs), a phenomenon that has opened up a series of research themes and debates. The main debate in this field is the extent to which the theories/frameworks on foreign direct investment (FDI), which have been developed from investigations on multinationals from developed countries, is relevant in explaining outward FDI from EMNEs. This debate is sparked by research suggesting that EMNEs supposedly do not hold the characteristics that are seen as a prerequisite to engaging in FDI. The underlying theme in this PhD is that the field should move away from a one size fit all categorisation of EMNEs, and explore the heterogeneity within EMNEs. Collecting data through various databases, archival articles and annual reports, there was an examination of the internationalisation process of 136 Latin American Multinationals (LAMNEs). The research explores the differences in internationalisation trajectories and global strategies and classifies firms into one of four categories. The four categories that LAMNEs fall into are: Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator, which are firms that are in resource seeking sectors; Accelerated Global, which depict firms that have become global over a very short period of time; Traditional Global, which are EMNEs that have internationalised at the same pace as developed country MNEs and Local Optimisers that only acquire or internationalise to developing countries. The analysis also looks at which decade LAMNEs engaged in FDI, to see if LAMNEs that internationalised during the 1970s and 1980s, during a time when Latin America had a closed economy, was different to LAMNEs that internationalised during the Washington consensus era of the 1990s or to firms that have only just internationalised within the last decade. The findings show that LAMNEs that internationalised before 1990 were more likely to adopt Local Optimiser strategies. However, more LAMNEs that started to internationalise during the 1990s started to adopt Traditional Global strategies, although Local Optimisers were the most prominent strategy. From 2002, there was more prominence of Accelerated Global strategies and a lot more heterogeneity among LAMNEs. Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator LAMNEs, tended to start to internationalisation process during the 1970s/1980s. Despite the rise of EMNEs, and by extension LAMNEs opting to use cross border merger and acquisitions (M&A), there is little research on whether this entry mode has been successful. Contrary to the argument that EMNEs are “internationalising successfully” through this strategy, the findings show that these firms are highly geared and are running less efficiently against their Western competitors. In comparison, LAMNEs internationalising through a more gradual approach, are outperforming their Western competitors on efficiency and are not highly geared- i.e. do not hold a lot of debt. The conclusion of the thesis is the emphasis of moving away from evaluating firms from their country or region of origin, but rather through the global strategy they are using. This will give a more a robust firm level of analysis, and help develop the understanding of EMNEs and international business theory.

Small firm internationalisation; understanding the practice through an interpretive approach

The unit of analysis in firm internationalisation studies is the firm but this overlooks the importance of the individual in the internationalisation process. An evaluation of the dominant theories of firm internationalisation highlights an implicit dualistic ontology, that is, where research subject and object are considered to be separate and independent. Implications of this assumption are discussed after reviewing the dominant literatures on firm internationalisation. An alternative approach is proposed that focuses on understanding internationalisation of the firm from an individual practitioner’s perspective. It is suggested that contemporary firm internationalisation research has been hindered by its basic assumptions and its inherent researcher orientation. An interpretive phenomenographic approach is proposed as a means of achieving a first-person, practitioner’s perspective of the process of firm internationalisation, specifically in the context of the small firm. Preliminary interpretations of interviews with owners/managers of small Australian wineries are presented.

Stakeholder relationships in an international retailing context:an investment bank perspective

Purpose - In the stakeholder marketing literature, there have been calls by several researchers to expand the stakeholder domain to incorporate a broader array of stakeholders. In developing this argument in this paper the authors aim to explore a set of stakeholder relationships in an international retailing context, notably those which exist between retail firms and investment banks. Design/methodology/approach - Theoretical ideas are subject to empirical scrutiny from 34 in-depth interviews with investment banks and senior retail executives from two retail multinationals. Findings - Exploratory findings suggest that US investment banks' ideals were at odds with European retail firms - and both occupied "different thought worlds". It is concluded that the relationships between financial stakeholders and the retail firm cannot be explained simply by reference to stylised economic interactions, but must also be examined in the light of the cultural contexts and different forms of market system within which different firms emerge, operate and interact. Originality/value - New strategies such as internationalisation stretch resources and capabilities to a point where retailers invariably will be exposed to different stakeholder issues and stresses. Towards this end, this paper contends that the significant international re-orientation under way in retailing must be understood within the wider context of stakeholder theory. The paper argues that the full potential of applying stakeholder marketing theory to the internationalisation process of retailers has yet to be realised. From this exploratory research, five research propositions are put forward that might serve as a guide to future research in this area. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Strategic development process and complex adaptive systems

The two areas of theory upon which this research was based were „strategy development process?(SDP) and „complex adaptive systems? (CAS), as part of complexity theory, focused on human social organisations. The literature reviewed showed that there is a paucity of empirical work and theory in the overlap of the two areas, providing an opportunity for contributions to knowledge in each area of theory, and for practitioners. An inductive approach was adopted for this research, in an effort to discover new insights to the focus area of study. It was undertaken from within an interpretivist paradigm, and based on a novel conceptual framework. The organisationally intimate nature of the research topic, and the researcher?s circumstances required a research design that was both in-depth and long term. The result was a single, exploratory, case study, which included use of data from 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, from 36 people, involving all the top management team members and significant other staff members; observations, rumour and grapevine (ORG) data; and archive data, over a 5½ year period (2005 – 2010). Findings confirm the validity of the conceptual framework, and that complex adaptive systems theory has potential to extend strategy development process theory. It has shown how and why the strategy process developed in the case study organisation by providing deeper insights to the behaviour of the people, their backgrounds, and interactions. Broad predictions of the „latent strategy development? process and some elements of the strategy content are also possible. Based on this research, it is possible to extend the utility of the SDP model by including peoples? behavioural characteristics within the organisation, via complex adaptive systems theory. Further research is recommended to test limits of the application of the conceptual framework and improve its efficacy with more organisations across a variety of sectors.

Crump-Mode-Jagers Branching Process: Modelling and Application for Human Population

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J85, 92D25.

A hazai védekezőtől a regionális „támadóig” – az OTP nemzetköziesedésének időbeni alakulása (From the domestic defender to the regional striker – a timebased process of the OTP Bank’s internationalization)

A vállalatok nemzetköziesedése egy széles körben vizsgált szakterület, különösképpen olyan vállalatok esetében (az ún. tradicionális multik), amelyek hagyományosan nemzetközi orientációjú országokból (Triád) származnak. A nemzetközi piacokon viszonylag újnak számító közép-kelet-európai cégek terjeszkedése az üzleti kontextus változásával párhuzamosan zajlott. Következésképpen ahhoz, hogy megértsük a nemzetköziesedés időben zajló folyamatát, a vállalatok nemzetközi evolúcióját a kontextussal összefüggésben kell vizsgálni. A vállalatok nemzetköziesedésének legelterjedtebb kutatási módszerei a nagymintás keresztmetszeti vizsgálatok, amelyek nem adnak lehetőséget a nemzetközi fejlődés időbeni alakulásának megfigyelésére és a mintázat mögött rejlő valós okok feltárására. A jelen tanulmány egy longitudinális kutatási modell mentén vizsgálja egy nem tradicionális multi, a hazai OTP nemzetköziesedésének időbeni alakulását, feltárva a nemzetközivé válás folyamata során kialakuló komplex kapcsolatrendszert. _______ The purpose of the present paper is to describe the internationalisation process of a non-traditional multinational, the Hungarian OTP Bank and to understand the dynamic linkages between the spatial and temporal context and the content of firm internationalization using a phenomenon oriented longitudinal research design. The paper contributes to the time-based processual view of firm internationalization arguing that in order to understand firm internationalization along time one should observe organizations and their contextual environments as complex interacting processes. By analysing the interaction between the multi-level processes that shape internationalization, one can explore the reasons behind the dynamic profile of firm internationalization. The paper applies an interpretative approach focusing on local causality.

The internationalisation of the Spanish SME sector

As part of a wider research program, we analysed the theoretical framework and the recent developments of the process of internationalisation (transnationalisation) of the small- and medium-sized enterprises in Spain. The paper highlights the main trends and barriers of this internationalisation process. Methodology included document analyses, interviews, and the analyses of statistical databases.

Weak reasoning argumentative theory. A dialogical approach for the discovery of philosophy in high schools

In the literature on philosophical practices, despite the crucial role that argumentation plays in these activities, no specific argumentative theories have ever been proposed to assist the figure of the facilitator in conducting philosophical dialogue and to enhance student’s critical thinking skills. The dissertation starts from a cognitive perspective that challenges the classic Cartesian notion of rationality by focusing on limits and biases of human reasoning. An argumentative model (WRAT – Weak Reasoning Argumentative Theory) is then outlined in order to respond to the needs of philosophical dialogue. After justifying the claim that this learning activity, among other inductive methodologies, is the most suitable for critical thinking education, I inquired into the specific goal of ‘arguing’ within this context by means of the tools provided by Speech Act Theory: the speaker’s intention is to construct new knowledge by questioning her own and other’s beliefs. The model proposed has been theorized on this assumption, starting from which the goals, and, in turn, the related norms, have been pinpointed. In order to include all the epistemic attitudes required to accomplish the complex task of arguing in philosophical dialogue, I needed to integrate two opposed cognitive accounts, Dual Process Theory and Evolutionary Approach, that, although they provide incompatible descriptions of reasoning, can be integrated to provide a normative account of argumentation. The model, apart from offering a theoretical contribution to argumentation studies, is designed to be applied to the Italian educational system, in particular to classes in technical and professional high schools belonging to the newly created network Inventio. This initiative is one of the outcomes of the research project by the same name, which also includes an original Syllabus, research seminars, a monitoring action and publications focused on introducing philosophy, in the form of workshop activities, into technical and professional schools.

Do ocio de Veblen ao controle das emoções de Elias

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Neoinstitutionalism and the appropriation of bourdieu's work: a critical assessment

Despite the still present hegemony of the structural-functionalist orthodoxy, the mid 1980's witnesses the insurgence of new philosophical approaches. This body of work had become a vital intellectual and ideological resource for those who wanted to confront the functionalist dominance in organization studies, such as structuration theory, labour process theory and neoinstitutionalist theory. The purpose of this paper is to review the incorporation of Bourdieu's work into neoinstitutionalism. I argue that this appropriation has resulted in a significant loss of theoretical strength. By giving place to the cognitivist metaphors of mental models, "scripts" and "schemas", instead of adopting the notion of habitus, neoinstitutionalism reinforces some of the ever-present dichotomies in social sciences, especially those of agency/structure and individual/society. While neoinstitutionalism was refining the cognitive approach in the 1990's, Bourdieu was moving towards psychoanalysis. Some indications for future research are provided in the concluding notes.

Talk on water ecological economics and participatory watershed governance

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

On prediction of individual sequences

Sequential randomized prediction of an arbitrary binary sequence isinvestigated. No assumption is made on the mechanism of generating the bit sequence. The goal of the predictor is to minimize its relative loss, i.e., to make (almost) as few mistakes as the best ``expert'' in a fixed, possibly infinite, set of experts. We point out a surprising connection between this prediction problem and empirical process theory. First, in the special case of static (memoryless) experts, we completely characterize the minimax relative loss in terms of the maximum of an associated Rademacher process. Then we show general upper and lower bounds on the minimaxrelative loss in terms of the geometry of the class of experts. As main examples, we determine the exact order of magnitude of the minimax relative loss for the class of autoregressive linear predictors and for the class of Markov experts.

Subsampling the mean of heavy-tailed dependent observations

We establish the validity of subsampling confidence intervals for themean of a dependent series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions.Using point process theory, we study both linear and nonlinear GARCH-liketime series models. We propose a data-dependent method for the optimalblock size selection and investigate its performance by means of asimulation study.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.