Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance : A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

We want to shed some light on the development of person mobility by analysing the repeated cross-sectional data of the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. The above mentioned driving forces operate on different levels of the system that generates the spatial behaviour we observe: Travel demand is derived from the needs and desires of individuals to participate in spatially separated activities. Individuals organise their lives in an interactive process within the context they live in, using given infrastructure. Essential determinants of their demand are the individual's socio-demographic characteristics, but also the opportunities and constraints defined by the household and the environment are relevant for the behaviour which ultimately can be realised. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, the (nested) hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings has to be considered. The data we will use for our analysis contains information on these three levels. With the analysis of this micro-data we attempt to improve our understanding of the afore subsumed macro developments. In addition we will investigate the prediction power of a few classic sociodemographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four NTS data sets, with a focus on the evolution of this predictive power. The additional task to correctly measure distances travelled by means of the NTS is threatened by the fact that although these surveys measure the same variables, different sampling designs and data collection procedures were used. So the aim of the analysis is also to detect variables whose control corrects for the known measurement error, as a prerequisite to apply appropriate models in order to better understand the development of individual travel behaviour in a multilevel context. This task is complicated by the fact that variables that inform on survey procedures and outcomes are only provided with the data set for 2002 (see Infas and DIW Berlin, 2003).

On payoff heterogeneity in games with strategic complementarities

Payoff heterogeneity weakens positive feedback in binary choice models intwo ways. First, heterogeneity drives individuals to corners where theyare unaffected by strategic complementarities. Second, aggregate behaviouris smoother than individual behaviour when individuals are heterogeneous.However, this smoothing does not necessarily eliminate positive feedbackor guarantee a unique equilibrium. In games with an unbounded, continuouschoice space, heterogeneity may either weaken or strengthen positive feedback,depending on a simple convexity/concavity condition. We conclude that positivefeedback phenomena derived in representative agent models will often be robustto heterogeneity.

Voir le monde à travers les lunettes du métacontraste : un modèle mathématique inspiré de la psychologie sociale

Résumé La théorie de l'autocatégorisation est une théorie de psychologie sociale qui porte sur la relation entre l'individu et le groupe. Elle explique le comportement de groupe par la conception de soi et des autres en tant que membres de catégories sociales, et par l'attribution aux individus des caractéristiques prototypiques de ces catégories. Il s'agit donc d'une théorie de l'individu qui est censée expliquer des phénomènes collectifs. Les situations dans lesquelles un grand nombre d'individus interagissent de manière non triviale génèrent typiquement des comportements collectifs complexes qui sont difficiles à prévoir sur la base des comportements individuels. La simulation informatique de tels systèmes est un moyen fiable d'explorer de manière systématique la dynamique du comportement collectif en fonction des spécifications individuelles. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons un modèle formel d'une partie de la théorie de l'autocatégorisation appelée principe du métacontraste. À partir de la distribution d'un ensemble d'individus sur une ou plusieurs dimensions comparatives, le modèle génère les catégories et les prototypes associés. Nous montrons que le modèle se comporte de manière cohérente par rapport à la théorie et est capable de répliquer des données expérimentales concernant divers phénomènes de groupe, dont par exemple la polarisation. De plus, il permet de décrire systématiquement les prédictions de la théorie dont il dérive, notamment dans des situations nouvelles. Au niveau collectif, plusieurs dynamiques peuvent être observées, dont la convergence vers le consensus, vers une fragmentation ou vers l'émergence d'attitudes extrêmes. Nous étudions également l'effet du réseau social sur la dynamique et montrons qu'à l'exception de la vitesse de convergence, qui augmente lorsque les distances moyennes du réseau diminuent, les types de convergences dépendent peu du réseau choisi. Nous constatons d'autre part que les individus qui se situent à la frontière des groupes (dans le réseau social ou spatialement) ont une influence déterminante sur l'issue de la dynamique. Le modèle peut par ailleurs être utilisé comme un algorithme de classification automatique. Il identifie des prototypes autour desquels sont construits des groupes. Les prototypes sont positionnés de sorte à accentuer les caractéristiques typiques des groupes, et ne sont pas forcément centraux. Enfin, si l'on considère l'ensemble des pixels d'une image comme des individus dans un espace de couleur tridimensionnel, le modèle fournit un filtre qui permet d'atténuer du bruit, d'aider à la détection d'objets et de simuler des biais de perception comme l'induction chromatique. Abstract Self-categorization theory is a social psychology theory dealing with the relation between the individual and the group. It explains group behaviour through self- and others' conception as members of social categories, and through the attribution of the proto-typical categories' characteristics to the individuals. Hence, it is a theory of the individual that intends to explain collective phenomena. Situations involving a large number of non-trivially interacting individuals typically generate complex collective behaviours, which are difficult to anticipate on the basis of individual behaviour. Computer simulation of such systems is a reliable way of systematically exploring the dynamics of the collective behaviour depending on individual specifications. In this thesis, we present a formal model of a part of self-categorization theory named metacontrast principle. Given the distribution of a set of individuals on one or several comparison dimensions, the model generates categories and their associated prototypes. We show that the model behaves coherently with respect to the theory and is able to replicate experimental data concerning various group phenomena, for example polarization. Moreover, it allows to systematically describe the predictions of the theory from which it is derived, specially in unencountered situations. At the collective level, several dynamics can be observed, among which convergence towards consensus, towards frag-mentation or towards the emergence of extreme attitudes. We also study the effect of the social network on the dynamics and show that, except for the convergence speed which raises as the mean distances on the network decrease, the observed convergence types do not depend much on the chosen network. We further note that individuals located at the border of the groups (whether in the social network or spatially) have a decisive influence on the dynamics' issue. In addition, the model can be used as an automatic classification algorithm. It identifies prototypes around which groups are built. Prototypes are positioned such as to accentuate groups' typical characteristics and are not necessarily central. Finally, if we consider the set of pixels of an image as individuals in a three-dimensional color space, the model provides a filter that allows to lessen noise, to help detecting objects and to simulate perception biases such as chromatic induction.

Functional responses and heterogeneities: an experimental test with cladocerans

The functional response of predators is usually modelled as a function of absolute prey density. Arditi and Ginzburg have suggested that it should often depend instead on the prey available per capita of predators, i.e. on the prey/predator ratio. Theory suggests that these two forms of dependence are related to the degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Experiments using four filter-feeding cladoceran species were designed to test this hypothesis and to investigate the relation between individual behaviour and population dynamics. The patterns of population abundance that the cladocerans reached at equilibrium match the expectation that species with homogeneous spatial behaviour follow prey-dependent dynamics while those with heterogeneous behaviour follow ratio-dependent dynamics.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Voir le monde à travers les lunettes du métacontraste: un modèle mathématique inspiré de la psychologie sociale

La théorie de l'autocatégorisation est une théorie de psychologie sociale qui porte sur la relation entre l'individu et le groupe. Elle explique le comportement de groupe par la conception de soi et des autres en tant que membres de catégories sociales, et par l'attribution aux individus des caractéristiques prototypiques de ces catégories. Il s'agit donc d'une théorie de l'individu qui est censée expliquer des phénomènes collectifs. Les situations dans lesquelles un grand nombre d'individus interagissent de manière non triviale génèrent typiquement des comportements collectifs complexes qui sont difficiles à prévoir sur la base des comportements individuels. La simulation informatique de tels systèmes est un moyen fiable d'explorer de manière systématique la dynamique du comportement collectif en fonction des spécifications individuelles. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons un modèle formel d'une partie de la théorie de l'autocatégorisation appelée principe du métacontraste. À partir de la distribution d'un ensemble d'individus sur une ou plusieurs dimensions comparatives, le modèle génère les catégories et les prototypes associés. Nous montrons que le modèle se comporte de manière cohérente par rapport à la théorie et est capable de répliquer des données expérimentales concernant divers phénomènes de groupe, dont par exemple la polarisation. De plus, il permet de décrire systématiquement les prédictions de la théorie dont il dérive, notamment dans des situations nouvelles. Au niveau collectif, plusieurs dynamiques peuvent être observées, dont la convergence vers le consensus, vers une fragmentation ou vers l'émergence d'attitudes extrêmes. Nous étudions également l'effet du réseau social sur la dynamique et montrons qu'à l'exception de la vitesse de convergence, qui augmente lorsque les distances moyennes du réseau diminuent, les types de convergences dépendent peu du réseau choisi. Nous constatons d'autre part que les individus qui se situent à la frontière des groupes (dans le réseau social ou spatialement) ont une influence déterminante sur l'issue de la dynamique. Le modèle peut par ailleurs être utilisé comme un algorithme de classification automatique. Il identifie des prototypes autour desquels sont construits des groupes. Les prototypes sont positionnés de sorte à accentuer les caractéristiques typiques des groupes, et ne sont pas forcément centraux. Enfin, si l'on considère l'ensemble des pixels d'une image comme des individus dans un espace de couleur tridimensionnel, le modèle fournit un filtre qui permet d'atténuer du bruit, d'aider à la détection d'objets et de simuler des biais de perception comme l'induction chromatique. Abstract Self-categorization theory is a social psychology theory dealing with the relation between the individual and the group. It explains group behaviour through self- and others' conception as members of social categories, and through the attribution of the proto-typical categories' characteristics to the individuals. Hence, it is a theory of the individual that intends to explain collective phenomena. Situations involving a large number of non-trivially interacting individuals typically generate complex collective behaviours, which are difficult to anticipate on the basis of individual behaviour. Computer simulation of such systems is a reliable way of systematically exploring the dynamics of the collective behaviour depending on individual specifications. In this thesis, we present a formal model of a part of self-categorization theory named metacontrast principle. Given the distribution of a set of individuals on one or several comparison dimensions, the model generates categories and their associated prototypes. We show that the model behaves coherently with respect to the theory and is able to replicate experimental data concerning various group phenomena, for example polarization. Moreover, it allows to systematically describe the predictions of the theory from which it is derived, specially in unencountered situations. At the collective level, several dynamics can be observed, among which convergence towards consensus, towards frag-mentation or towards the emergence of extreme attitudes. We also study the effect of the social network on the dynamics and show that, except for the convergence speed which raises as the mean distances on the network decrease, the observed convergence types do not depend much on the chosen network. We further note that individuals located at the border of the groups (whether in the social network or spatially) have a decisive influence on the dynamics' issue. In addition, the model can be used as an automatic classification algorithm. It identifies prototypes around which groups are built. Prototypes are positioned such as to accentuate groups' typical characteristics and are not necessarily central. Finally, if we consider the set of pixels of an image as individuals in a three-dimensional color space, the model provides a filter that allows to lessen noise, to help detecting objects and to simulate perception biases such as chromatic induction.

The relationship between b2b branding and industrial buying in the digital era: evidence from Finnish gas industry

The aim of this study is to understand the importance of b2b brands in different phases of the industrial buying process in the digital era. The research problem is approached by examining a b2b supplier brand in the context of gas supplier selection. The data was collected by interviewing individuals from ten different companies. The findings contribute to previous theory by showing that as industrial buying behaviour is eventually individual behaviour, brands can influence decision making. The relevance of a brand depends on individual’s personality and preferences. Digital media cannot be ignored in managing brand image as buyers are present in the online environment. The results reveal that traditional personal selling is, nevertheless, in a key role in brand image building and is a source of added value. The salesperson influences buyers’ perceived associations of a brand and gives the brand a face.

Les effets du néo-patrimonialisme sur la démocratie : de la pratique du présidentialisme et du clientélisme au Sénégal

Le présent texte porte sur l’état de la démocratie au Sénégal depuis l’alternance politique survenue en 2000. Adoptant une définition minimale de la démocratie – respect des libertés civiles et politiques, et tenue d’élections libres et justes – à laquelle il ajoute le principe de séparation des pouvoirs, son principal objectif est de répondre à la question suivante : pourquoi le fonctionnement de la démocratie est-il entravé au Sénégal? L’hypothèse avancée pour répondre à cette interrogation est la présence du néo-patrimonialisme. Celui-ci, par l’intermédiaire de la personnalisation du pouvoir et le clientélisme, sape le respect des règles démocratiques dans ce pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest. Pour analyser l’impact du néo-patrimonialisme sur la démocratie au Sénégal, ce mémoire privilégie le néo-institutionnalisme sociologique comme cadre théorique. Cette approche définit les institutions de façon large : celles-ci peuvent englober non seulement des normes formelles mais également des règles informelles. En vertu de cette approche, le néo-patrimonialisme et la démocratie représentent des institutions puisque le premier englobe un ensemble de règles informelles et le second un ensemble de normes et procédures formelles. Ces deux institutions structurent et façonnent le comportement des individus. Dans cette confrontation institutionnelle, les règles néo-patrimoniales influencent davantage l’action des élites politiques sénégalaises – notamment le chef de l’État – que les normes démocratiques. La vérification de l’hypothèse s’appuie sur des études sur la démocratie et le néo-patrimonialisme aussi bien au Sénégal qu’en Afrique. Elle se base également sur l’actualité et les faits politiques saillants depuis l’alternance. L’analyse est essentiellement qualitative et se divise en deux chapitres empiriques. Le premier de ceux-ci (chapitre II dans le texte) concerne la séparation des pouvoirs. Le but de ce chapitre est d’observer la manière dont l’actuel président de la République, Abdoulaye Wade, contrôle le parlement et la justice. Le second chapitre empirique (chapitre III dans le texte) se divise en deux sections. La première s’intéresse aux libertés civiles et politiques qui subissent des restrictions dues au penchant autoritaire de Wade. La seconde section porte sur les élections dont le déroulement est entaché par de nombreuses irrégularités : violence électorale, manque de ressources de l’autorité électorale, instabilité du calendrier électoral, partialité de la justice. L’étude confirme l’hypothèse, ce qui est très problématique pour la plupart des États africains. En effet, le néo-patrimonialisme est une caractéristique fondamentale de la gouvernance en Afrique. Ainsi, beaucoup de régimes du continent noir qui enclenchent ou enclencheront un processus de démocratisation comme le Sénégal, risquent de connaître les mêmes difficultés liées à la persistance des pratiques néo-patrimoniales.

Exploring food choice as social practice : appreciating the context of family feeding in Kahnawake, Québec, Canada

De nous jours, les modèles se référant aux comportements individuels représentent la pensée dominante pour comprendre les choix alimentaires dans le domaine de la nutrition en santé publique. Ces modèles conceptualisent les choix alimentaires comme un comportement de consommation décidé de façon rationnelle par des individus, en réponse aux multiples déterminants personnels et environnementaux. Même si ces modèles sont utiles pour décrire les déterminants des comportements individuels d’alimentation, ils ne peuvent expliquer les choix alimentaires en tant que processus social façonné en fonction des individus et des lieux, dans des contextes diversifiés. Cette thèse élabore le Cadre Conceptuel sur la Pratique des Choix Alimentaires afin d’explorer les choix alimentaires comme phénomène social. En utilisant le concept de pratique sociale, les choix alimentaires des individus symbolisent une relation récursive entre la structure sociale et l’agence. Ce cadre conceptuel nous donne un moyen d’identifier les choix alimentaires comme des activités sociales modelées sur la vie de tous les jours et la constituant. Il offre des concepts pour identifier la manière dont les structures sociales renforcent les activités routinières menant aux choix alimentaires. La structure sociale est examinée en utilisant les règles et les ressources de Giddens et est opérationnalisée de la façon suivante : systèmes de significations partagées, normes sociales, ressources matérielles et ressources d'autorité qui permettent ou empêchent les choix alimentaires désirés. Les résultats empiriques de deux études présentées dans cette thèse appuient la proposition que les choix alimentaires sont des pratiques sociales. La première étude examine les pratiques de choix alimentaires au sein des familles. Nous avons identifié les choix alimentaires comme cinq activités routinières distinctes intégrées dans la vie familiale de tous les jours à partir d’analyses réalisées sur les activités d’alimentation habituelles de 20 familles avec de jeunes enfants. Notre seconde étude a élaboré les règles et les ressources des pratiques alimentaires à partir des familles de l’étude. Ensuite, nous avons analysé la façon dont les règles et les ressources pouvaient expliquer les pratiques de choix alimentaires qui sont renforcées ou limitées au sein des familles lors de la routine spécifique à la préparation des repas et de la collation. Les ressources matérielles et d'autorité suffisantes ont permis d’expliquer les pratiques de choix alimentaires qui étaient facilitées, alors que les défis pouvaient être compris comme etant reliés à des ressources limitées. Les règles pouvaient empêcher ou faciliter les pratiques de choix alimentaires par l’entremise de normes ou de significations associées à la préparation de repas. Les données empiriques provenant de cette thèse appuient les choix alimentaires comme étant des activités routinières qui sont structurées socialement et qui caractérisent les familles. Selon la théorie de la structuration de Giddens, les pratiques routinières qui persistent dans le temps forment les institutions sociales. Ainsi, les pratiques routinières de choix alimentaires façonnent les styles d’habitudes alimentaires familiales et contribuent par ailleurs à la constitution des familles elles-mêmes. Cette compréhension identifie de nouvelles directions concernant la façon dont les choix alimentaires sont conceptualisés en santé publique. Les programmes de promotion de la santé destinés à améliorer la nutrition sont des stratégies clés pour prévenir les maladies chroniques et pour améliorer la santé populationnelle. Les choix alimentaires peuvent être abordés comme des activités partagées qui décrivent des groupes sociaux et qui sont socialement structurés par des règles et des ressources présentes dans les contextes de pratiques de choix alimentaires.

Decision‐Making in Public Good Dilemmas: Theory and Agent‐Based Simulation

In many real world contexts individuals find themselves in situations where they have to decide between options of behaviour that serve a collective purpose or behaviours which satisfy one’s private interests, ignoring the collective. In some cases the underlying social dilemma (Dawes, 1980) is solved and we observe collective action (Olson, 1965). In others social mobilisation is unsuccessful. The central topic of social dilemma research is the identification and understanding of mechanisms which yield to the observed cooperation and therefore resolve the social dilemma. It is the purpose of this thesis to contribute this research field for the case of public good dilemmas. To do so, existing work that is relevant to this problem domain is reviewed and a set of mandatory requirements is derived which guide theory and method development of the thesis. In particular, the thesis focusses on dynamic processes of social mobilisation which can foster or inhibit collective action. The basic understanding is that success or failure of the required process of social mobilisation is determined by heterogeneous individual preferences of the members of a providing group, the social structure in which the acting individuals are contained, and the embedding of the individuals in economic, political, biophysical, or other external contexts. To account for these aspects and for the involved dynamics the methodical approach of the thesis is computer simulation, in particular agent-based modelling and simulation of social systems. Particularly conductive are agent models which ground the simulation of human behaviour in suitable psychological theories of action. The thesis develops the action theory HAPPenInGS (Heterogeneous Agents Providing Public Goods) and demonstrates its embedding into different agent-based simulations. The thesis substantiates the particular added value of the methodical approach: Starting out from a theory of individual behaviour, in simulations the emergence of collective patterns of behaviour becomes observable. In addition, the underlying collective dynamics may be scrutinised and assessed by scenario analysis. The results of such experiments reveal insights on processes of social mobilisation which go beyond classical empirical approaches and yield policy recommendations on promising intervention measures in particular.

Culture, compassion and clinical neglect: probity in the NHS after Mid Staffordshire

Speaking of the public response to the deaths of children at the Bristol Royal Infirmary before 2001, the BMJ commented that the NHS would be 'all changed, changed utterly'. Today, two inquiries into the Mid Staffordshire Foundation Trust suggest nothing changed at all. Many patients died as a result of their care and the stories of indifference and neglect there are harrowing. Yet Bristol and Mid Staffordshire are not isolated reports. In 2011, the Health Services Ombudsman reported on the care of elderly and frail patients in the NHS and found a failure to recognise their humanity and individuality and to respond to them with sensitivity, compassion and professionalism. Likewise, the Care Quality Commission and Healthcare Commission received complaints from patients and relatives about the quality of nursing care. These included patients not being fed, patients left in soiled bedding, poor hygiene practices, and general disregard for privacy and dignity. Why is there such tolerance of poor clinical standards? We need a better understanding of the circumstances that can lead to these outcomes and how best to respond to them. We discuss the findings of these and other reports and consider whether attention should be devoted to managing individual behaviour, or focus on the systemic influences which predispose hospital staff to behave in this way. Lastly, we consider whether we should look further afield to cognitive psychology to better understand how clinicians and managers make decisions?

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Microeletrodos: III. arranjos de microeletrodos, construção e caracterização

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sedative and antinociceptive effects of romifidine and xylazine in Thoroughbred mares

Compararam-se os efeitos sedativos e antinociceptivos da romifidina (0,1mg/kg) e da xilazina (1,0mg/kg) em éguas da raça Puro Sangue Inglês. A sedação foi quantificada por meio da atividade locomotora espontânea (ALE) e altura da cabeça (AC) em baias individuais automatizadas para o estudo do comportamento. A antinocicepção foi avaliada utilizando uma lâmpada de irradiação de calor registrando-se a latência para o reflexo de retirada do membro (LRRM) e a latência para o reflexo do frêmito cutâneo (LRFC), em delineamento experimental em blocos ao acaso com 10 repetições. O efeito sedativo sobre a ALE foi de aparecimento mais rápido no grupo exposto à xilazina, ao passo que a ptose da cabeça foi mais prolongada no grupo que recebeu romifidina. A romifidina promoveu aumento da LRRM e LRFC e a xilazina não causou efeito antinociceptivo medido pela LRFC. O efeito antinociceptivo da romifidina foi mais pronunciado que o da xilazina.

Energy efficiency potential in Jamaica: challenges, opportunities and strategies for implementation

Incluye Bibliografía