Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.

Political influence in commercial and financial oil trading : the evidence from US firms

International politics affects oil trade. But do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. However, the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold-up risks, which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to expropriation. In particular, our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from U.S. political enemies. Interestingly, while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics, other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. Our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets, policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk.

European antitrust control and standard setting. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/01, February 2012

Standards reduce production costs and increase products’ value to consumers. Standards however entail risks of anti-competitive abuse. After the adoption of a standard, the chosen technology normally lacks credible substitutes. The owner of the patented technology might thus have additional market power relative to locked-in licensees, and might exploit this power to charge higher access rates. In the economic literature this phenomenon is referred to as ‘hold-up’. To reduce the risk of hold-up, standard-setting organisations often require patent holders to disclose their standard-essential patents before the adoption of the standard and to commit to license on fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory (FRAND) terms. The European Commission normally investigates unfair pricing abuse in a standard-setting context if a patent holder who committed to FRAND ex-ante is suspected not to abide to it ex-post. However, this approach risks ignoring a number of potential abuses which are likely harmful for welfare. That can happen if, for example, ex-post a licensee is able to impose excessively low access rates (‘reverse hold-up’) or if a patent holder acquires additional market power thanks to the standard but its essential patents are not encumbered by FRAND commitments, for instance because the patent holder did not directly participate to the standard setting process and was therefore not required by the standard-setting organisations to commit to FRAND ex-ante. A consistent policy by the Commission capable of tackling all sources of harm should be enforced regardless of whether FRAND commitments are given. Antitrust enforcement should hinge on the identification of a distortion in the bargaining process around technology access prices, which is determined by the adoption of the standard and is not attributable to pro-competitive merits of any of the involved players.

Flow patterns, performance and scale-up of distillation trays

This work is concerned with the nature of liquid flow across industrial sieve trays operating in the spray, mixed, and the emulsified flow regimes. In order to overcome the practical difficulties of removing many samples from a commercial tray, the mass transfer process was investigated in an air water simulator column by heat transfer analogy. The temperature of the warm water was measured by many thermocouples as the water flowed across the single pass 1.2 m diameter sieve tray. The thermocouples were linked to a mini computer for the storage of the data. The temperature data were then transferred to a main frame computer to generate temperature profiles - analogous to concentration profiles. A comprehensive study of the existing tray efficiency models was carried out using computerised numerical solutions. The calculated results were compared with experimental results published by the Fractionation Research Incorporation (FRl) and the existing models did not show any agreement with the experimental results. Only the Porter and Lockett model showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results for cenain tray efficiency values. A rectangular active section tray was constructed and tested to establish the channelling effect and the result of its effect on circular tray designs. The developed flow patterns showed predominantly flat profiles and some indication of significant liquid flow through the central region of the tray. This comfirms that the rectangular tray configuration might not be a satisfactory solution for liquid maldistribution on sieve trays. For a typical industrial tray the flow of liquid as it crosses the tray from the inlet to the outlet weir could be affected by the mixing of liquid by the eddy, momentum and the weir shape in the axial or the transverse direction or both. Conventional U-shape profiles were developed when the operating conditions were such that the froth dispersion was in the mixed regime, with good liquid temperature distribution while in the spray regime. For the 12.5 mm hole diameter tray the constant temperature profiles were found to be in the axial direction while in the spray regime and in the transverse direction for the 4.5 mm hole tray. It was observed that the extent of the liquid stagnant zones at the sides of the tray depended on the tray hole diameter and was larger for the 4.5 mm hole tray. The liquid hold-up results show a high liquid hold-up at the areas of the tray with low liquid temperatures, this supports the doubts about the assumptions of constant point efficiency across an operating tray. Liquid flow over the outlet weir showed more liquid flow at the centre of the tray at high liquid loading with low liquid flow at both ends of the weir. The calculated results of the point and tray efficiency model showed a general increase in the calculated point and tray efficiencies with an increase in the weir loading, as the flow regime changed from the spray to the mixed regime the point and the tray efficiencies increased from approximately 30 to 80%.Through the mixed flow regime the efficiencies were found to remain fairly constant, and as the operating conditions were changed to maintain an emulsified flow regime there was a decrease in the resulting efficiencies. The results of the estimated coefficient of mixing for the small and large hole diameter trays show that the extent of liquid mixing on an operating tray generally increased with increasing capacity factor, but decreased with increasing weir loads. This demonstrates that above certain weir loads, the effect of eddy diffusion mechanism on the process of liquid mixing on an operating tray to be negligible.

Koherens kockázatmérés és tőkeallokáció = Coherent risk measurement and capital allocation

Bármennyire szeretne is egy bank (vállalat, biztosító) csak az üzletre koncentrálni, nem térhet ki a pénzügyi (hitel-, piaci, operációs, egyéb) kockázatok elől, amelyeket mérnie és fedeznie kell. A teljes fedezés vagy nagyon költséges, vagy nem is lehetséges, így a csőd elkerülésre minden gazdálkodó egységnek tartania kell valamennyi kockázatmentes, likvid tőkét. Koherens kockázatmérésre van szükség: az allokált tőkének tükröznie kell a kockázatokat - azonban még akkor is felmerül elosztási probléma, ha jól tudjuk mérni azokat. A diverzifikációs hatásoknak köszönhetően egy portfólió teljes kockázata általában kisebb, mint a portfóliót alkotó alportfóliók kockázatának összege. A koherens tőkeallokáció során azzal a kérdéssel kell foglalkoznunk, hogy mennyi tőkét osszunk az alportfóliókra, vagyis hogyan osszuk el „kor­rekt” módon a diverzifikáció előnyeit. Így megkapjuk az eszközök kockázathoz való hozzájárulását. A tanulmányban játékelmélet alkalmazásával, összetett opciós példákon keresztül bemutatjuk a kockázatok következetes mérését és felosztását, felhívjuk a figyelmet a következetlenségek veszélyeire, valamint megvizsgáljuk, hogy a gyakorlatban alkalmazott kockázatmérési módszerek [különösen a kockáztatott érték (VaR)] mennyire felelnek meg az elmélet által szabott követelményeknek. ____________________ However much a bank (or company or insurance provider) concentrates only on business, it cannot avoid financial (credit, market, operational or other) risks that need to be measured and covered. Total cover is either very expensive or not even possible, so that every business unit has to hold some risk-free liquid capital to avoid insolvency. What it needs is coherent risk measurement: the capital allocated has to match the risks, but even if the risks are measured well, distribution problems can still arise. Thanks to diversification effects, the total risk of a portfolio is less than the sum of the risks of its sub-portfolios. Coherent capital allocation entails addressing the question of how much capital to divide among the sub-portfolios, or how to distribute ‘correctly’ the advantages of diversification. This yields the contribution of the assets to the risk. The study employs game theory and examples of compound options to demonstrate coherent measurement and distribution of risks. Attention is drawn to the dangers of inconsistencies. The authors examine how far the methods of risk measurement applied in practice (notably VaR—value at risk) meet the requirements set in theory.

The prognostic significance of quality of life following breast cancer [Conference Abstract]

Introduction: Evidence suggests a positive association between quality of life (QOL). and overall survival(OS). among metastatic breast cancer (BC). patients, although the relationship in early-stage BC is unclear. This work examines the association between QOL and OS following a diagnosis of early-stage BC. ----- Methods: A population-based sample of Queensland women (n=287). with early-stage, invasive, unilateral BC, were prospectively observed for a median of 6.6 years. QOL was assessed at six and 18 months post-diagnosis using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast FACT-B+4. questionnaire. Raw scores for the FACT-B+4 scales were computed and individuals were categorised according to whether QOL declined, remained stable or improved over time. OS was measured from the date of diagnosis to the date of death or was censored at the date of last follow-up. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). for the association between QOL and OS were obtained using Cox proportional hazards survival models adjusted for confounding characteristics. ----- Results: A total of 27 (9.4%). women died during the follow-up period. Three baseline QOL scales (emotional, general and overall QOL) were significantly associated with OS, with RRs ranging between 0.89 95% CI: 0.81, 0.98; P=0.01. and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.99; P=0.03),indicating a 2%-11% reduced risk of death for every one unit increase in QOL. When QOL was categorised according to changes between six and 18 months post-diagnosis, analyses showed that for those who experienced declines in functional and physical QOL, risk of death increased by two- (95% CI: 1.43, 12.52; P<0.01) and four-fold (95% CI: 1.15, 7.19; P=0.02), respectively. Conclusions: This work indicates that specific QOL scales at six months post-diagnosis, and changes in certain QOL scales over the subsequent 12-month period (as measured by the FACT-B+4), are associated with overall survival in women with early-stage breast cancer.

Posttraumatic growth in Australian populations

It is easy to assume that because Australia and the United States are both predominantly English speaking countries that are relatively young and share many similarities in terms of their historical beginnings, they elicit the same results when investigating psychological constructs. In recent years this has been questioned across a number of domains (e.g., personality and stereotyping) and research has demonstrated that although many constructs are universal, there are differences between these nations; some subtle and others quite stark (McCrae et al., 2005; Terraciano et al., 2005). In this chapter we discuss research that has investigated Posttraumatic Growth (PTG) in various populations in Australia and highlight the similarities and differences that have been found between Australian samples and those published in other countries, especially the US. Data are drawn from quantitative and qualitative investigations conducted with groups who have experienced diverse traumatic events as either direct survivors (e.g., rape, armed hold-up, bereavement) or vicarious survivors (e.g., paramedics). A description of the Australian context sets the scene for the ensuing discussion about PTG in Australian populations.

Standardisation and patent ambush : potential liability under Australian competition law

This article examines the problem of patent ambush in standard setting, where patent owners are sometimes able to capture industry standards in order to secure monopoly power and windfall profits. Because standardisation generally introduces high switching costs, patent ambush can impose significant costs on downstream manufacturers and consumers and drastically reduce the efficiency gains of standardisation.This article considers how Australian competition law is likely to apply to patent ambush both in the development of a standard (through misrepresenting the existence of an essential patent) and after a standard is implemented (through refusing to license an essential patented technology either at all or on reasonable and non-discriminatory (RAND) terms). This article suggests that non-disclosure of patent interests is unlikely to restrained by Part IV of the Trade Practices Act (TPA), and refusals to license are only likely to be restrained if the refusal involves leveraging or exclusive dealing. By contrast, Standard Setting Organisations (SSOs) which seek to limit this behaviour through private ordering may face considerable scrutiny under the new cartel provisions of the TPA. This article concludes that SSOs may be best advised to implement administrative measures to prevent patent hold-up, such as reviewing which patents are essential for the implementation of a standard, asking patent holders to make their licence conditions public to promote transparency, and establishing forums where patent licensees can complain about licence terms that they consider to be unreasonable or discriminatory. Additionally, the ACCC may play a role in authorising SSO policies that could otherwise breach the new cartel provisions, but which have the practical effect of promoting competition in the standards setting environment.

Brothers in arms – An experiment on the alliance puzzle

The generic alliance game considers players in an alliance who fight against an external enemy. After victory, the alliance may break up, and its members may fight against each other over the spoils of the victory. Our experimental analysis of this game shows: In-group solidarity vanishes after the break-up of the alliance. Former ‘brothers in arms’ fight even more vigorously against each other than strangers do. Furthermore, this vigorous internal fighting is anticipated and reduces the ability of the alliance to mobilize the joint fighting effort, compared to a situation in which victorious alliance members share the spoils of victory equally and peacefully

Interfacial area measurement in a gas - liquid ejector for a sodium chloride - air system

Interfacial area measurement has been carried out experimentally by measuring the bubble size and holdup for air-sodium chloride solution system. The size of the bubble is predominantly established by the air hold up. High speed photography technique for bubble size measurement and gamma ray attenuation method for holdup measurements are followed. The measured values are compared with the theoretically predicted values. Interracial area as a function of the liquid flow rate and also its distance from the nozzle of the ejector has been reported in this paper. The results obtained for this non-reactive system are also compared with those of air-water system.

Oxidation of sodium sulphide in the presence of fine activated carbon particles in a foam bed contactor

The oxidation of sodium sulphide in the presence of fine activated carbon particles (4.33 μm) has been studied at 75°C in a foam bed contactor. The existing single-stage model of a foam bed reactor has been modified to take into account the effect of heterogeneous catalyst particles and the absorption in the storage section. The variables studied are catalyst loading, initial sulphide concentration and the average liquid hold-up in the foam bed. It is seen that the rates of oxidation of sodium sulphide are considerably enhanced by an increase in the loading of activated carbon particles. The rate of conversion of sodium sulphide also increases with an increase in the average liquid hold-up in the foam. The modified model predicts these effects fairly well. The contribution of reaction in the storage section is found to be less than 2% of the overall rate of conversion in the contactor.

Under Swastika and the French flag.

The memoirs were originally written for the Harvard University competition in 1940 and were translated by the author in 2001. Reflections on his childhood in Germany and Austria. His parents were both from Poland. They moved to Vienna in 1921, where his father opened a haberdashery store in the Second district (Leopoldstadt). Otto attended primary school in Czerningasse. Birth of his sister Cecile in 1924. After his failing business endeavors his father decided to move back to Germany, where the family opened a department store in Elbing, East Prussia. Otto attended Gymnasium, where he was one of only two Jewish students in his class. Growing Nazi movement among students. Summer vacations on the Baltic Sea. Private piano lessons. Hitler’s rise in Germany and life under National Socialism. Bar mitzvah in 1933. Anti-Jewish boycotts. His father fled to Vienna in order to escape a rounding up of Jews. The family followed soon after to Austria. Otto attended Gymnasium in the Zirkusgasse and started to work as a tutor. Member of a youth group and hiking tours in the mountains. Recollections of the Anschluss in 1938. Fervent attempts to obtain an exit visa for the United States, where they had a relative in New York. Description of discriminations and frequent attacks on Jewish friends and relatives in the weeks after the Anschluss. Otto was picked up by Nazi stormtroops. He was forced to hold up an anti-Jewish sign and was walked up and down, receiving beatings and spittings in front of a jeering crowd. Detailed account of the atmosphere within the Jewish population. The Gymnasium Zirkusgasse was transferred into a Jewish school. Frequent attacks of Hitler Youths on the students. Preparations for the “Matura” despite the turmoil. In June of 1938 his father was arrested and sent to Dachau concentration camp. After passing the final exams, Otto planned on leaving the country illegally, since he was subject to the Polish quota for the United States with

Microfabrication and application of reservoir pins for liquid transfer in biotechnology

Microarraying involves laying down genetic elements onto a solid substrate for DNA analysis on a massively parallel scale. Microarrays are prepared using a pin-based robotic platform to transfer liquid samples from microtitre plates to an array pattern of dots of different liquids on the surface of glass slides where they dry to form spots diameter < 200 μm. This paper presents the design, materials selection, micromachining technology and performance of reservoir pins for microarraying. A conical pin is produced by (i) conventional machining of stainless steel or wet etching of tungsten wire, followed by (ii) micromachining with a focused laser to produce a microreservoir and a capillary channel structure leading from the tip. The pin has a flat end diameter < 100 μm from which a 500 μm long capillary channel < 15 μm wide leads up the pin to a reservoir. Scanning electron micrographs of the metal surface show roughness on the scale of 10 μm, but the pins nevertheless give consistent and reproducible spotting performance. The pin capacity is 80 nanolitres of fluid containing DNA, and at least 50 spots can be printed before replenishing the reservoir. A typical robot holds can hold up to 64 pins. This paper discusses the fabrication technology, the performance and spotting uniformity for reservoir pins, the possible limits to miniaturization of pins using this approach, and the future prospects for contact and non-contact arraying technology.