Cluster analysis and segmentation of Global M&A transactions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Regional decomposition of CO2 emissions in the world: a cluster analysis

The purpose of this paper is to study the possible differences among countries as CO2 emitters and to examine the underlying causes of these differences. The starting point of the analysis is the Kaya identity, which allows us to break down per capita emissions in four components: an index of carbon intensity, transformation efficiency, energy intensity and social wealth. Through a cluster analysis we have identified five groups of countries with different behavior according to these four factors. One significant finding is that these groups are stable for the period analyzed. This suggests that a study based on these components can characterize quite accurately the polluting behavior of individual countries, that is to say, the classification found in the analysis could be used in other studies which look to study the behavior of countries in terms of CO2 emissions in homogeneous groups. In this sense, it supposes an advance over the traditional regional or rich-poor countries classifications .

Cluster analysis of behavioural and event-related potentials during a contingent negative variation paradigm in remitting-relapsing and benign forms of multiple sclerosis

Background: Event-related potentials (ERPs) may be used as a highly sensitive way of detecting subtle degrees of cognitive dysfunction. On the other hand, impairment of cognitive skills is increasingly recognised as a hallmark of patients suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought to determine the psychophysiological pattern of information processing among MS patients with the relapsing-remitting form of the disease and low physical disability considered as two subtypes: 'typical relapsing-remitting' (RRMS) and 'benign MS' (BMS). Furthermore, we subjected our data to a cluster analysis to determine whether MS patients and healthy controls could be differentiated in terms of their psychophysiological profile.Methods: We investigated MS patients with RRMS and BMS subtypes using event-related potentials (ERPs) acquired in the context of a Posner visual-spatial cueing paradigm. Specifically, our study aimed to assess ERP brain activity in response preparation (contingent negative variation -CNV) and stimuli processing in MS patients. Latency and amplitude of different ERP components (P1, eN1, N1, P2, N2, P3 and late negativity -LN) as well as behavioural responses (reaction time -RT; correct responses -CRs; and number of errors) were analyzed and then subjected to cluster analysis. Results: Both MS groups showed delayed behavioural responses and enhanced latency for long-latency ERP components (P2, N2, P3) as well as relatively preserved ERP amplitude, but BMS patients obtained more important performance deficits (lower CRs and higher RTs) and abnormalities related to the latency (N1, P3) and amplitude of ERPs (eCNV, eN1, LN). However, RRMS patients also demonstrated abnormally high amplitudes related to the preparation performance period of CNV (cCNV) and post-processing phase (LN). Cluster analyses revealed that RRMS patients appear to make up a relatively homogeneous group with moderate deficits mainly related to ERP latencies, whereas BMS patients appear to make up a rather more heterogeneous group with more severe information processing and attentional deficits. Conclusions: Our findings are suggestive of a slowing of information processing for MS patients that may be a consequence of demyelination and axonal degeneration, which also seems to occur in MS patients that show little or no progression in the physical severity of the disease over time.

Acute schistosomiasis: a risk underestimated by travelers and a diagnosis frequently missed by general practitioners-a cluster analysis of 42 travelers.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, a patient was admitted to our hospital with acute schistosomiasis after having returned from Madagascar and having bathed at the Lily waterfalls. On the basis of this patient's indication, infection was suspected in 41 other subjects. This study investigated (1) the knowledge of the travelers about the risks of schistosomiasis and their related behavior to evaluate the appropriateness of prevention messages and (2) the diagnostic workup of symptomatic travelers by general practitioners to evaluate medical care of travelers with a history of freshwater exposure in tropical areas. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to the 42 travelers with potential exposure to schistosomiasis. It focused on pre-travel knowledge of the disease, bathing conditions, clinical presentation, first suspected diagnosis, and treatment. RESULTS: Of the 42 questionnaires, 40 (95%) were returned, among which 37 travelers (92%) reported an exposure to freshwater, and 18 (45%) were aware of the risk of schistosomiasis. Among these latter subjects, 16 (89%) still reported an exposure to freshwater. Serology was positive in 28 (78%) of 36 exposed subjects at least 3 months after exposure. Of the 28 infected travelers, 23 (82%) exhibited symptoms and 16 (70%) consulted their general practitioner before the information about the outbreak had spread, but none of these patients had a serology for schistosomiasis done during the first consultation. CONCLUSIONS: The usual prevention message of avoiding freshwater contact when traveling in tropical regions had no impact on the behavior of these travelers, who still went swimming at the Lily waterfalls. This prevention message should, therefore, be either modified or abandoned. The clinical presentation of acute schistosomiasis is often misleading. General practitioners should at least request an eosinophil count, when confronted with a returning traveler with fever. If eosinophilia is detected, it should prompt the search for a parasitic disease.

Correlation, by multivariate statistical analysis, between the scavenging capacity against reactive oxygen species and the bioactive compounds from frozen fruit pulps

The contents of total phenolic compounds (TPC), total flavonoids (TF), and ascorbic acid (AA) of 18 frozen fruit pulps and their scavenging capacities against peroxyl radical (ROO•), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), and hydroxyl radical (•OH) were determined. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed that TPC (total phenolic compounds) and AA (ascorbic acid) presented positive correlation with the scavenging capacity against ROO•, and TF (total flavonoids) showed positive correlation with the scavenging capacity against •OH and ROO• However, the scavenging capacity against H2O2 presented low correlation with TF (total flavonoids), TPC (total phenolic compounds), and AA (ascorbic acid). The Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) allowed the classification of the fruit pulps into three groups: one group was formed by the açai pulp with high TF, total flavonoids, content (134.02 mg CE/100 g pulp) and the highest scavenging capacity against ROO•, •OH and H2O2; the second group was formed by the acerola pulp with high TPC, total phenolic compounds, (658.40 mg GAE/100 g pulp) and AA , ascorbic acid, (506.27 mg/100 g pulp) contents; and the third group was formed by pineapple, cacao, caja, cashew-apple, coconut, cupuaçu, guava, orange, lemon, mango, passion fruit, watermelon, pitanga, tamarind, tangerine, and umbu pulps, which could not be separated considering only the contents of bioactive compounds and the scavenging properties.

Fuzzy cluster analysis on Spanish public universities. 'Análisis de agrupaciones difusas en las universidades públicas españolas'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

The use of trajectory cluster analysis to interpret trace gas measurements at Mace Head, Ireland

A first step in interpreting the wide variation in trace gas concentrations measured over time at a given site is to classify the data according to the prevailing weather conditions. In order to classify measurements made during two intensive field campaigns at Mace Head, on the west coast of Ireland, an objective method of assigning data to different weather types has been developed. Air-mass back trajectories calculated using winds from ECMWF analyses, arriving at the site in 1995–1997, were allocated to clusters based on a statistical analysis of the latitude, longitude and pressure of the trajectory at 12 h intervals over 5 days. The robustness of the analysis was assessed by using an ensemble of back trajectories calculated for four points around Mace Head. Separate analyses were made for each of the 3 years, and for four 3-month periods. The use of these clusters in classifying ground-based ozone measurements at Mace Head is described, including the need to exclude data which have been influenced by local perturbations to the regional flow pattern, for example, by sea breezes. Even with a limited data set, based on 2 months of intensive field measurements in 1996 and 1997, there are statistically significant differences in ozone concentrations in air from the different clusters. The limitations of this type of analysis for classification and interpretation of ground-based chemistry measurements are discussed.

Multivariable cluster analysis for high-speed industrial machinery

The overall operation and internal complexity of a particular production machinery can be depicted in terms of clusters of multidimensional points which describe the process states, the value in each point dimension representing a measured variable from the machinery. The paper describes a new cluster analysis technique for use with manufacturing processes, to illustrate how machine behaviour can be categorised and how regions of good and poor machine behaviour can be identified. The cluster algorithm presented is the novel mean-tracking algorithm, capable of locating N-dimensional clusters in a large data space in which a considerable amount of noise is present. Implementation of the algorithm on a real-world high-speed machinery application is described, with clusters being formed from machinery data to indicate machinery error regions and error-free regions. This analysis is seen to provide a promising step ahead in the field of multivariable control of manufacturing systems.

Neural network basis function center selection using cluster analysis

This paper deals with the selection of centres for radial basis function (RBF) networks. A novel mean-tracking clustering algorithm is described as a way in which centers can be chosen based on a batch of collected data. A direct comparison is made between the mean-tracking algorithm and k-means clustering and it is shown how mean-tracking clustering is significantly better in terms of achieving an RBF network which performs accurate function modelling.

Cluster analysis for multivariable process control

This paper describes the novel use of cluster analysis in the field of industrial process control. The severe multivariable process problems encountered in manufacturing have often led to machine shutdowns, where the need for corrective actions arises in order to resume operation. Production faults which are caused by processes running in less efficient regions may be prevented or diagnosed using a reasoning based on cluster analysis. Indeed the intemal complexity of a production machinery may be depicted in clusters of multidimensional data points which characterise the manufacturing process. The application of a Mean-Tracking cluster algorithm (developed in Reading) to field data acquired from a high-speed machinery will be discussed. The objective of such an application is to illustrate how machine behaviour can be studied, in particular how regions of erroneous and stable running behaviour can be identified.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach

Boreal winter wind storm situations over Central Europe are investigated by means of an objective cluster analysis. Surface data from the NCEP-Reanalysis and ECHAM4/OPYC3-climate change GHG simulation (IS92a) are considered. To achieve an optimum separation of clusters of extreme storm conditions, 55 clusters of weather patterns are differentiated. To reduce the computational effort, a PCA is initially performed, leading to a data reduction of about 98 %. The clustering itself was computed on 3-day periods constructed with the first six PCs using "k-means" clustering algorithm. The applied method enables an evaluation of the time evolution of the synoptic developments. The climate change signal is constructed by a projection of the GCM simulation on the EOFs attained from the NCEP-Reanalysis. Consequently, the same clusters are obtained and frequency distributions can be compared. For Central Europe, four primary storm clusters are identified. These clusters feature almost 72 % of the historical extreme storms events and add only to 5 % of the total relative frequency. Moreover, they show a statistically significant signature in the associated wind fields over Europe. An increased frequency of Central European storm clusters is detected with enhanced GHG conditions, associated with an enhancement of the pressure gradient over Central Europe. Consequently, more intense wind events over Central Europe are expected. The presented algorithm will be highly valuable for the analysis of huge data amounts as is required for e.g. multi-model ensemble analysis, particularly because of the enormous data reduction.