Genetic algorithms and investment strategies: A global perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: (1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, (2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, (3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and (4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

A Comparative Analysis Between Genetic Algorithms and Complex Nonlinear Least Squares on Electrical Impedance Characterization

This paper compares the performance of the complex nonlinear least squares algorithm implemented in the LEVM/LEVMW software with the performance of a genetic algorithm in the characterization of an electrical impedance of known topology. The effect of the number of measured frequency points and of measurement uncertainty on the estimation of circuit parameters is presented. The analysis is performed on the equivalent circuit impedance of a humidity sensor.

Optimal capacitor placement in radial distribution networks

The capacitor placement (replacement) problem for radial distribution networks determines capacitor types, sizes, locations and control schemes. Optimal capacitor placement is a hard combinatorial problem that can be formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear program. Since this is a NP complete problem (Non Polynomial time) the solution approach uses a combinatorial search algorithm. The paper proposes a hybrid method drawn upon the Tabu Search approach, extended with features taken from other combinatorial approaches such as genetic algorithms and simulated annealing, and from practical heuristic approaches. The proposed method has been tested in a range of networks available in the literature with superior results regarding both quality and cost of solutions.

Otimização de sistemas híbridos para a eletrificação de minirredes com fontes renováveis: aspectos de projeto, operação e gestão

Em sistemas híbridos de geração de eletricidade (SHGEs) é fundamental avaliar corretamente o dimensionamento, a operação e a gestão do sistema, de forma a evitar seu colapso prematuro e garantir a continuidade do fornecimento de energia elétrica com a menor intervenção possível de usuários ou de empresas geradoras e distribuidoras de eletricidade. O presente trabalho apresenta propostas de otimização para as etapas de dimensionamento, operação e gestão de SHGEs atendendo minirredes de distribuição de eletricidade. É proposta uma estratégia de operação que visa otimizar o despacho de energia do sistema, identificando a melhor relação, sob aspectos técnicos e econômicos, entre o atendimento da carga exclusivamente via fontes renováveis e banco de baterias ou exclusivamente via grupo gerador, e o carregamento do banco de baterias somente pelas fontes renováveis ou também pelo grupo gerador. Desenvolve-se, também, um algoritmo de dimensionamento de SHGEs, com auxílio de algoritmos genéticos e simulated annealing, técnicas meta-heurísticas de otimização, visando apresentar a melhor configuração do sistema, em termos de equipamentos que resultem na melhor viabilidade técnica e econômica para uma dada condição de entrada definida pelo usuário. Por fim, é proposto um modelo de gestão do sistema, considerando formas de tarifação e sistemas de controle de carga, cujo objetivo é garantir uma relação adequada entre a disponibilidade energética do sistema de geração e a carga demandada. A estratégia de operação proposta combina as estratégias de operação descontínua do grupo gerador, da potência crítica e do ponto otimizado de contribuição do gerador no carregamento do banco de baterias, e seus resultados indicam que há redução nos custos de operação globais do sistema. Com relação ao dimensionamento ótimo, o algoritmo proposto, em comparação a outras ferramentas de otimização de SHGEs, apresenta bons resultados, sendo adequado à realidade nacional. O modelo de gestão do sistema propõe o estabelecimento de limites de consumo e demanda, adequados à realidade de comunidades isoladas atendidas por sistemas com fontes renováveis e, se corretamente empregados, podem ajudar a garantir a sustentabilidade dos sistemas.

Partición hardware software de un codificador JPEG utilizando escalador de colinas estocástico

La partición hardware/software es una etapa clave dentro del proceso de co-diseño de los sistemas embebidos. En esta etapa se decide qué componentes serán implementados como co-procesadores de hardware y qué componentes serán implementados en un procesador de propósito general. La decisión es tomada a partir de la exploración del espacio de diseño, evaluando un conjunto de posibles soluciones para establecer cuál de estas es la que mejor balance logra entre todas las métricas de diseño. Para explorar el espacio de soluciones, la mayoría de las propuestas, utilizan algoritmos metaheurísticos; destacándose los Algoritmos Genéticos, Recocido Simulado. Esta decisión, en muchos casos, no es tomada a partir de análisis comparativos que involucren a varios algoritmos sobre un mismo problema. En este trabajo se presenta la aplicación de los algoritmos: Escalador de Colinas Estocástico y Escalador de Colinas Estocástico con Reinicio, para resolver el problema de la partición hardware/software. Para validar el empleo de estos algoritmos se presenta la aplicación de este algoritmo sobre un caso de estudio, en particular la partición hardware/software de un codificador JPEG. En todos los experimentos es posible apreciar que ambos algoritmos alcanzan soluciones comparables con las obtenidas por los algoritmos utilizados con más frecuencia.

Optimal design of 3R manipulators by using classical techniques and simulated annealin

In this paper, the optimum design of 3R manipulators is formulated and solved by using an algebraic formulation of workspace boundary. A manipulator design can be approached as a problem of optimization, in which the objective functions are the size of the manipulator and workspace volume; and the constrains can be given as a prescribed workspace volume. The numerical solution of the optimization problem is investigated by using two different numerical techniques, namely, sequential quadratic programming and simulated annealing. Numerical examples illustrate a design procedure and show the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.

Transmission system expansion planning by an extended genetic algorithm

The paper presents an extended genetic algorithm for solving the optimal transmission network expansion planning problem. Two main improvements have been introduced in the genetic algorithm: (a) initial population obtained by conventional optimisation based methods; (b) mutation approach inspired in the simulated annealing technique, the proposed method is general in the sense that it does not assume any particular property of the problem being solved, such as linearity or convexity. Excellent performance is reported in the test results section of the paper for a difficult large-scale real-life problem: a substantial reduction in investment costs has been obtained with regard to previous solutions obtained via conventional optimisation methods and simulated annealing algorithms; statistical comparison procedures have been employed in benchmarking different versions of the genetic algorithm and simulated annealing methods.

Global optimization using a genetic algorithm with hierarchically structured population

This paper applies a genetic algorithm with hierarchically structured population to solve unconstrained optimization problems. The population has individuals distributed in several overlapping clusters, each one with a leader and a variable number of support individuals. The hierarchy establishes that leaders must be fitter than its supporters with the topological organization of the clusters following a tree. Computational tests evaluate different population structures, population sizes and crossover operators for better algorithm performance. A set of known benchmark test problems is solved and the results found are compared with those obtained from other methods described in the literature, namely, two genetic algorithms, a simulated annealing, a differential evolution and a particle swarm optimization. The results indicate that the method employed is capable of achieving better performance than the previous approaches in regard as the two criteria usually employed for comparisons: the number of function evaluations and rate of success. The method also has a superior performance if the number of problems solved is taken into account. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Algorithms for UAS insertion in civil air space

One of the most interesting challenge of the next years will be the Air Space Systems automation. This process will involve different aspects as the Air Traffic Management, the Aircrafts and Airport Operations and the Guidance and Navigation Systems. The use of UAS (Uninhabited Aerial System) for civil mission will be one of the most important steps in this automation process. In civil air space, Air Traffic Controllers (ATC) manage the air traffic ensuring that a minimum separation between the controlled aircrafts is always provided. For this purpose ATCs use several operative avoidance techniques like holding patterns or rerouting. The use of UAS in these context will require the definition of strategies for a common management of piloted and piloted air traffic that allow the UAS to self separate. As a first employment in civil air space we consider a UAS surveillance mission that consists in departing from a ground base, taking pictures over a set of mission targets and coming back to the same ground base. During all mission a set of piloted aircrafts fly in the same airspace and thus the UAS has to self separate using the ATC avoidance as anticipated. We consider two objective, the first consists in the minimization of the air traffic impact over the mission, the second consists in the minimization of the impact of the mission over the air traffic. A particular version of the well known Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) called Time-Dependant-TSP has been studied to deal with traffic problems in big urban areas. Its basic idea consists in a cost of the route between two clients depending on the period of the day in which it is crossed. Our thesis supports that such idea can be applied to the air traffic too using a convenient time horizon compatible with aircrafts operations. The cost of a UAS sub-route will depend on the air traffic that it will meet starting such route in a specific moment and consequently on the avoidance maneuver that it will use to avoid that conflict. The conflict avoidance is a topic that has been hardly developed in past years using different approaches. In this thesis we purpose a new approach based on the use of ATC operative techniques that makes it possible both to model the UAS problem using a TDTSP framework both to use an Air Traffic Management perspective. Starting from this kind of mission, the problem of the UAS insertion in civil air space is formalized as the UAS Routing Problem (URP). For this reason we introduce a new structure called Conflict Graph that makes it possible to model the avoidance maneuvers and to define the arc cost function of the departing time. Two Integer Linear Programming formulations of the problem are proposed. The first is based on a TDTSP formulation that, unfortunately, is weaker then the TSP formulation. Thus a new formulation based on a TSP variation that uses specific penalty to model the holdings is proposed. Different algorithms are presented: exact algorithms, simple heuristics used as Upper Bounds on the number of time steps used, and metaheuristic algorithms as Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing. Finally an air traffic scenario has been simulated using real air traffic data in order to test our algorithms. Graphic Tools have been used to represent the Milano Linate air space and its air traffic during different days. Such data have been provided by ENAV S.p.A (Italian Agency for Air Navigation Services).

Vehicle routing and location routing problems with minimum latency: algorithms and models

Latency can be defined as the sum of the arrival times at the customers. Minimum latency problems are specially relevant in applications related to humanitarian logistics. This thesis presents algorithms for solving a family of vehicle routing problems with minimum latency. First the latency location routing problem (LLRP) is considered. It consists of determining the subset of depots to be opened, and the routes that a set of homogeneous capacitated vehicles must perform in order to visit a set of customers such that the sum of the demands of the customers assigned to each vehicle does not exceed the capacity of the vehicle. For solving this problem three metaheuristic algorithms combining simulated annealing and variable neighborhood descent, and an iterated local search (ILS) algorithm, are proposed. Furthermore, the multi-depot cumulative capacitated vehicle routing problem (MDCCVRP) and the multi-depot k-traveling repairman problem (MDk-TRP) are solved with the proposed ILS algorithm. The MDCCVRP is a special case of the LLRP in which all the depots can be opened, and the MDk-TRP is a special case of the MDCCVRP in which the capacity constraints are relaxed. Finally, a LLRP with stochastic travel times is studied. A two-stage stochastic programming model and a variable neighborhood search algorithm are proposed for solving the problem. Furthermore a sampling method is developed for tackling instances with an infinite number of scenarios. Extensive computational experiments show that the proposed methods are effective for solving the problems under study.

Métodos metaheurísticos aplicados a um modelo de planejamento de culturas

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

Multiobjective genetic algorithms applied to heat transfer problems

In the present work, the multi-objective optimization by genetic algorithms is investigated and applied to heat transfer problems. Firstly, the work aims to compare different reproduction processes employed by genetic algorithms and two new promising processes are suggested. Secondly, in this work two heat transfer problems are studied under the multi-objective point of view. Specifically, the two cases studied are the wavy fins and the corrugated wall channel. Both these cases have already been studied by a single objective optimizer. Therefore, this work aims to extend the previous works in a more comprehensive study.

Cross-validated maximum likelihood enhances crystallographic simulated annealing refinement

Recently, the target function for crystallographic refinement has been improved through a maximum likelihood analysis, which makes proper allowance for the effects of data quality, model errors, and incompleteness. The maximum likelihood target reduces the significance of false local minima during the refinement process, but it does not completely eliminate them, necessitating the use of stochastic optimization methods such as simulated annealing for poor initial models. It is shown that the combination of maximum likelihood with cross-validation, which reduces overfitting, and simulated annealing by torsion angle molecular dynamics, which simplifies the conformational search problem, results in a major improvement of the radius of convergence of refinement and the accuracy of the refined structure. Torsion angle molecular dynamics and the maximum likelihood target function interact synergistically, the combination of both methods being significantly more powerful than each method individually. This is demonstrated in realistic test cases at two typical minimum Bragg spacings (dmin = 2.0 and 2.8 Å, respectively), illustrating the broad applicability of the combined method. In an application to the refinement of a new crystal structure, the combined method automatically corrected a mistraced loop in a poor initial model, moving the backbone by 4 Å.