Are There Classical Business Cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cycle hypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the time period since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.

Are these classical business cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cyclehypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the timeperiod since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.

Producció de biopolímers amb cultius bacterians mixtes. Comparació de tres reactors discontinus seqüencials (SBR) amb diferents condicions operacionals

La producció de biopolímers (polihidroxialcanoats (PHA) i substàncies polimèriques extracel·lulars (EPS)) a nivell industrial, resulta una nova àrea d’investigació que recull diverses disciplines, entre elles les Ciències Ambientals. Aquest projecte final de carrera amb el títol: “Producció de biopolímers amb cultius bacterians mixtes”, s’ha desenvolupat sota la supervisió de la directora de projecte Dra. María Eugenia Suárez Ojeda del Departament d’Enginyeria Química de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) i s’ha dut a terme per l’estudiant Jordi Pérez i Forner de la Llicenciatura de Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Ciències de la UAB, en el Departament d’Enginyeria Química de la mateixa universitat. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte ha estat produir biopolímers simultàniament amb l’eliminació de fòsfor i matèria orgànica en aigües residuals per obtenir un residu final amb un alt valor afegit. Aquests biopolímers reuneixen les característiques necessàries per a poder competir amb els plàstics convencionals i així, reduir l’elevat consum del petroli i la generació de residus no biodegradables. En aquest projecte s’ha dut a terme la posta en marxa d’un reactor discontinu seqüencial (SBR) per a l’acumulació de biopolímers amb cultius bacterians mixtes. Diferents investigadors han estudiat que aquests tipus de cultius bacterians arriben a nivells de fins el 53-97% [Pijuan et al., 2009] de contingut de biopolímers a la biomassa, sometent als microorganismes a diferents situacions d’estrés ja sigui per dèficit de nutrients o per variacions en les fases de feast-famine (festí-fam). Durant el projecte, s’ha realitzat el monitoratge del reactor alimentat amb una aigua sintètica, elaborada en el laboratori, amb les característiques d’un aigua residual provinent de la industria làctica. S’ha sotmès als microorganismes a diferents condicions operacionals, una d’elles amb limitació de fòsfor com a nutrient i una tercera condició amb una variació a les fases feast-famine. D’altra banda, com a segon objectiu, s’ha analitzat el contingut de biopolímers a la biomassa de dos SBRs més, del grup de recerca Bio-GLS del Departament d’Enginyeria Química de la UAB, alimentats amb diferents fonts de carboni, glicerol i àcids grassos de cadena llarga (AGCLL), per observar les influències que té el tipus de substrat en l’acumulació de biopolímers. Els resultats obtinguts en la primera part d’aquest projecte han estat similars als resultats d’altres investigadors [Pijuan et al., 2009; Guerrero et al., 2012]. S’ha determinat que sotmetre als microorganismes a situacions d’estrés té un efecte directe pel que fa a l’acumulació de biopolímers. També s’ha observat com al mateix temps que acumulaven aquests compostos, els microorganismes desenvolupaven la seva tasca de depurar l’aigua residual, obtenint al final del cicle una aigua amb un baix contingut en matèria orgànica i altres contaminants com amoni i fòsfor, en aquest cas. En la segona part del projecte, s’ha observat com el tipus de substrat té un efecte directe pel que fa a l’acumulació de biopolímers i també a l’activitat metabòlica dels microorganismes. Per tant, s’ha conclòs que la producció de biopolímers mitjançant la depuració d’aigües residuals es una via d’investigació molt prometedora pel que fa als resultats obtinguts. Alhora que es tracta un residu, s’obté una producte residual amb un alt valor afegit que pot ser utilitzat per la producció de bioplàstics 100% biodegradables.

Evolution of specialization: a phylogenetic study of host range in the red milkweed beetle (Tetraopes tetraophthalmus).

Specialization is common in most lineages of insect herbivores, one of the most diverse groups of organisms on earth. To address how and why specialization is maintained over evolutionary time, we hypothesized that plant defense and other ecological attributes of potential host plants would predict the performance of a specialist root-feeding herbivore (the red milkweed beetle, Tetraopes tetraophthalmus). Using a comparative phylogenetic and functional trait approach, we assessed the determinants of insect host range across 18 species of Asclepias. Larval survivorship decreased with increasing phylogenetic distance from the true host, Asclepias syriaca, suggesting that adaptation to plant traits drives specialization. Among several root traits measured, only cardenolides (toxic defense chemicals) correlated with larval survival, and cardenolides also explained the phylogenetic distance effect in phylogenetically controlled multiple regression analyses. Additionally, milkweed species having a known association with other Tetraopes beetles were better hosts than species lacking Tetraopes herbivores, and milkweeds with specific leaf area values (a trait related to leaf function and habitat affiliation) similar to those of A. syriaca were better hosts than species having divergent values. We thus conclude that phylogenetic distance is an integrated measure of phenotypic and ecological attributes of Asclepias species, especially defensive cardenolides, which can be used to explain specialization and constraints on host shifts over evolutionary time.

Effects of computing parameters and measurement locations on the estimation of 3D NPS in non-stationary MDCT images.

The goal of this study was to investigate the impact of computing parameters and the location of volumes of interest (VOI) on the calculation of 3D noise power spectrum (NPS) in order to determine an optimal set of computing parameters and propose a robust method for evaluating the noise properties of imaging systems. Noise stationarity in noise volumes acquired with a water phantom on a 128-MDCT and a 320-MDCT scanner were analyzed in the spatial domain in order to define locally stationary VOIs. The influence of the computing parameters in the 3D NPS measurement: the sampling distances bx,y,z and the VOI lengths Lx,y,z, the number of VOIs NVOI and the structured noise were investigated to minimize measurement errors. The effect of the VOI locations on the NPS was also investigated. Results showed that the noise (standard deviation) varies more in the r-direction (phantom radius) than z-direction plane. A 25 × 25 × 40 mm(3) VOI associated with DFOV = 200 mm (Lx,y,z = 64, bx,y = 0.391 mm with 512 × 512 matrix) and a first-order detrending method to reduce structured noise led to an accurate NPS estimation. NPS estimated from off centered small VOIs had a directional dependency contrary to NPS obtained from large VOIs located in the center of the volume or from small VOIs located on a concentric circle. This showed that the VOI size and location play a major role in the determination of NPS when images are not stationary. This study emphasizes the need for consistent measurement methods to assess and compare image quality in CT.

Robust Nonlinear Mapping of Soil Contamination Using Support Regression

Spatial data analysis mapping and visualization is of great importance in various fields: environment, pollution, natural hazards and risks, epidemiology, spatial econometrics, etc. A basic task of spatial mapping is to make predictions based on some empirical data (measurements). A number of state-of-the-art methods can be used for the task: deterministic interpolations, methods of geostatistics: the family of kriging estimators (Deutsch and Journel, 1997), machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures, hybrid ANN-geostatistics models (Kanevski and Maignan, 2004; Kanevski et al., 1996), etc. All the methods mentioned above can be used for solving the problem of spatial data mapping. Environmental empirical data are always contaminated/corrupted by noise, and often with noise of unknown nature. That's one of the reasons why deterministic models can be inconsistent, since they treat the measurements as values of some unknown function that should be interpolated. Kriging estimators treat the measurements as the realization of some spatial randomn process. To obtain the estimation with kriging one has to model the spatial structure of the data: spatial correlation function or (semi-)variogram. This task can be complicated if there is not sufficient number of measurements and variogram is sensitive to outliers and extremes. ANN is a powerful tool, but it also suffers from the number of reasons. of a special type ? multiplayer perceptrons ? are often used as a detrending tool in hybrid (ANN+geostatistics) models (Kanevski and Maignank, 2004). Therefore, development and adaptation of the method that would be nonlinear and robust to noise in measurements, would deal with the small empirical datasets and which has solid mathematical background is of great importance. The present paper deals with such model, based on Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) - Support Vector Regression. SLT is a general mathematical framework devoted to the problem of estimation of the dependencies from empirical data (Hastie et al, 2004; Vapnik, 1998). SLT models for classification - Support Vector Machines - have shown good results on different machine learning tasks. The results of SVM classification of spatial data are also promising (Kanevski et al, 2002). The properties of SVM for regression - Support Vector Regression (SVR) are less studied. First results of the application of SVR for spatial mapping of physical quantities were obtained by the authorsin for mapping of medium porosity (Kanevski et al, 1999), and for mapping of radioactively contaminated territories (Kanevski and Canu, 2000). The present paper is devoted to further understanding of the properties of SVR model for spatial data analysis and mapping. Detailed description of the SVR theory can be found in (Cristianini and Shawe-Taylor, 2000; Smola, 1996) and basic equations for the nonlinear modeling are given in section 2. Section 3 discusses the application of SVR for spatial data mapping on the real case study - soil pollution by Cs137 radionuclide. Section 4 discusses the properties of the modelapplied to noised data or data with outliers.

Nutrient signature of Quebec (Canada) cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.)

Fertilizer recommendations for cranberry crops are guided by plant and soil tests. However, critical tissue concentration ranges used for diagnostic purposes are inherently biased by nutrient interactions and physiological age. Compositional data analysis using isometric log ratios (ilr) of nutrients as well as time detrending can avoid numerical biases. The objective was to derive unbiased nutrient signature standards for cranberry in Quebec and compare those standards to literature data. Field trials were conducted during 3 consecutive years with varying P treatments at six commercial sites in Quebec. Leaf tissues were analyzed for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, B, Cu, Zn, Mn and Fe. The analytical results were transformed into ilr nutrient balances of parts and groups of parts. High-yield reference ilr values were computed for cranberry yielding greater than 35 Mg ha-1. Many cranberry fields appeared to be over-supplied with K and either under-supplied with Mn or over-supplied with Fe as shown by their imbalanced [K | Ca, Mg] and [Mn | Fe] ratios. Nutrient concentration ranges from Maine and Wisconsin, USA, were combined into ilr values to generate ranges of balances. It was found that these nutrient ranges were much too broad for application in Quebec or outside the Quebec ranges for the [Ca | Mg] and the [Mn | Fe] balances, that were lower compared to those of high yielding cranberry crops in Quebec.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

Trans-equatorial migration and mixing in the wintering areas of a pelagic seabird

Despite increasing interest in long-distance migration, the wintering areas, migration corridors, and population mix in winter quarters of most pelagic marine predators are unknown. Here, we present the first study tracking migration movements of shearwaters through the non-breeding period. We used geolocators (global location sensing [GLS] units based on ambient light levels) to track 22 Cory's shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) breeding in three different areas. Most birds wintered in one or more of three relatively small areas, all clearly associated with major coastal upwelling systems of the tropical and south Atlantic. Trans-equatorial movements were dominated by prevailing trade winds and westerlies, while calm, oligotrophic areas were avoided. Breeding populations clearly differed in their preference amongst the three major wintering areas, but showed substantial mixing. This illustrates the exceptional value of GLS, not only for determining and describing the influence of oceanographic features on migration patterns, but also for assessing population mix in winter quarters. This knowledge is essential to understanding the impacts of population-level threats, such as longlining, offshore windfarms, and oil spills on multiple breeding sites, and will be critical in devising conservation policies that guarantee the sustainable exploitation of the oceans.

Korkofutuurien markkinatehokkuus

Paneeliregressioita käyttäen tutkittiin 3 kuukauden Euribor-futuurin markkinatehokkuutta ja sitä, esiintyykö normal backwardation-efektiä. Tulokset olivat ristiriitaisia.

Estimation procedures affect the center of pressure frequency analysis

Even though frequency analysis of body sway is widely applied in clinical studies, the lack of standardized procedures concerning power spectrum estimation may provide unreliable descriptors. Stabilometric tests were applied to 35 subjects (20-51 years, 54-95 kg, 1.6-1.9 m) and the power spectral density function was estimated for the anterior-posterior center of pressure time series. The median frequency was compared between power spectra estimated according to signal partitioning, sampling rate, test duration, and detrending methods. The median frequency reliability for different test durations was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. When increasing number of segments, shortening test duration or applying linear detrending, the median frequency values increased significantly up to 137%. Even the shortest test duration provided reliable estimates as observed with the intraclass coefficient (0.74-0.89 confidence interval for a single 20-s test). Clinical assessment of balance may benefit from a standardized protocol for center of pressure spectral analysis that provides an adequate relationship between resolution and variance. An algorithm to estimate center of pressure power density spectrum is also proposed.

Análisis del proceso que condujo a la construcción del concepto de explotación inserto en el Protocolo para prevenir, reprimir y sancionar la trata de personas, incorporado a la legislación colombiana a través de la Ley 800 de 2003

El objetivo de este trabajo de grado es describir una disputa política por el significado del concepto de explotación en el marco de la redacción del “Protocolo para prevenir, reprimir y sancionar la trata de personas, especialmente mujeres y niños”, en el cual se define aquello que se entiende por trata de personas. La construcción de este concepto excluye e invisibiliza otros tipos de explotación comunes en el sistema de producción capitalista contemporánea que pertenecen al universo de violencia objetiva sistémica a través del énfasis en la explotación sexual que hace parte de la violencia subjetiva.

Is the Indian Ocean SST variability a homogeneous diffusion process.

Whereas the predominance of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability is well established, no such consensus seems to have been reached by climate scientists regarding the Indian Ocean. While a number of researchers think that the Indian Ocean SST variability is dominated by an active dipolar-type mode of variability, similar to ENSO, others suggest that the variability is mostly passive and behaves like an autocorrelated noise. For example, it is suggested recently that the Indian Ocean SST variability is consistent with the null hypothesis of a homogeneous diffusion process. However, the existence of the basin-wide warming trend represents a deviation from a homogeneous diffusion process, which needs to be considered. An efficient way of detrending, based on differencing, is introduced and applied to the Hadley Centre ice and SST. The filtered SST anomalies over the basin (23.5N-29.5S, 30.5E-119.5E) are then analysed and found to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. The same differencing method is then applied to the smaller tropical Indian Ocean domain. This smaller domain is also inconsistent with the null hypothesis on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. In particular, it is found that the leading mode of variability yields the Indian Ocean dipole, and departs significantly from the null hypothesis only in the autumn season.

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.

The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect.