Modelling and Fragility Analysis of Non-Ductile Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Low-to-Moderate Seismic Zones

Reinforced concrete buildings in low-to-moderate seismic zones are often designed only for gravity loads in accordance with the non-seismic detailing provisions. Deficient detailing of columns and beam-column joints can lead to unpredictable brittle failures even under moderate earthquakes. Therefore, a reliable estimate of structural response is required for the seismic evaluation of these structures. For this purpose, analytical models for both interior and exterior slab-beam-column subassemblages and for a 1/3 scale model frame were implemented into the nonlinear finite element platform OpenSees. Comparison between the analytical results and experimental data available in the literature is carried out using nonlinear pushover analyses and nonlinear time history analysis for the subassemblages and the model frame, respectively. Furthermore, the seismic fragility assessment of reinforced concrete buildings is performed on a set of non-ductile frames using nonlinear time history analyses. The fragility curves, which are developed for various damage states for the maximum interstory drift ratio are characterized in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration using a suite of ground motions representative of the seismic hazard in the region.

Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

Fragility of the spin-glass-like collective state to a magnetic field in an interacting Fe-C nanoparticle system

The effect of applied magnetic fields on the collective nonequilibrium dynamics of a strongly interacting Fe-C nanoparticle system has been investigated. It is experimentally shown that the magnetic aging diminishes to finally disappear for fields of moderate strength. The field needed to remove the observable aging behavior increases with decreasing temperature. The same qualitative behavior is observed in an amorphous metallic spin glass (Fe0.15Ni0.85)(75)P16B6Al3.

The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results. 

Development of Seismic Fragility Functions for a Moment Resisting Reinforced Concrete Framed Structure

Understanding the seismic vulnerability of building structures is important for seismic engineers, building owners, risk insurers and governments. Seismic vulnerability defines a buildings predisposition to be damaged as a result of an earthquake of a given severity. There are two components to seismic risk; the seismic hazard and the exposure of the structural inventory to any given earthquake event. This paper demonstrates the development of fragility curves at different damage states using a detailed mechanical model of a moment resisting reinforced concrete structure typical of Southern Europe. The mechanical model consists of a complex three-dimensional finite element model of the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame structure and is used to define the damage states through pushover analysis. Fragility curves are also defined using the HAZUS macroseismic methodology and the Risk-UE macroseismic methodology. Comparison of the mechanically modelled and HAZUS fragility curve shows good agreement while the Risk-UE methodology shows reasonably poor agreement.

Management of fragility fractures in Switzerland: results of a nationwide survey.

A nationwide survey was conducted in Switzerland to assess the quality level of osteoporosis management in patients aged 50 years or older presenting with a fragility fracture to the emergency ward of the participating hospitals. Eight centres recruited 4966 consecutive patients who presented with one or more fractures between 2004 and 2006. Of these, 3667 (2797 women, 73.8 years old and 870 men, 73.0 years old in average) were considered as having a fragility fracture and included in the survey. Included patients presented with a fracture of the upper limbs (30.7%), lower limbs (26.4%), axial skeleton (19.5%) or another localisation, including malleolar fractures (23.4%). Thirty-two percent reported one or more previous fractures during adulthood. Of the 2941 (80.2%) hospitalised women and men, only half returned home after discharge. During diagnostic workup, dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement was performed in 31.4% of the patients only. Of those 46.0% had a T-score < or =-2.5 SD and 81.1% < or =-1.0 SD. Osteoporosis treatment rate increased from 26.3% before fracture to 46.9% after fracture in women and from 13.0% to 30.3% in men. However, only 24.0% of the women and 13.8% of the men were finally adequately treated with a bone active substance, generally an oral bisphosphonate, with or without calcium / vitamin D supplements. A positive history of previous fracture vs none increased the likelihood of getting treatment with a bone active substance (36.6 vs 17.9%, ? 18.7%, 95% CI 15.1 to 22.3, and 22.6 vs 9.9%, ? 12.7%, CI 7.3 to 18.5, in women and men, respectively). In Switzerland, osteoporosis remains underdiagnosed and undertreated in patients aged 50 years and older presenting with a fragility fracture.

Bone mineral density measurement and osteoporosis treatment after a fragility fracture in older adults: regional variation and determinants of use in Quebec

Affiliation: Pierre Dagenais : Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal

The evidence that exercise during growth or adulthood reduces the risk of fragility fractures is weak

There has never been, and will never be, a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial demonstrating that exercise in youth, adulthood or old age reduces fragility or osteoporosis-related fractures in old age. The next level of evidence, a randomized, controlled but unblinded study with fractures as an end-point is feasible but has never been done. The basis for the belief that exercise reduces fractures is derived from lower levels of ‘evidence’, namely, retrospective and prospective observation cohort studies and case–control studies. These studies are at best hypothesis generating, never hypothesis testing. They are all subject to many systematic biases and should be interpreted with extreme scepticism. Surrogate measures of anti-fracture efficacy are the next level of evidence, such as the demonstration of a reduction in risk factors for falls, a reduction in falls, a reduction in fractures due to falls, an increase in peak bone size and mass, prevention of bone loss in midlife and restoration of bone mass and structure in old age.

The exclusion of high trauma fractures may underestimate the prevalence of bone fragility fractures in the community : the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Fractures associated with severe trauma are generally excluded from estimates of the prevalence of osteoporotic fractures in the community. Because the degree of trauma is difficult to quantitate, low bone mass may contribute to fractures following severe trauma. We ascertained all fractures in a defined population and compared the bone mineral density (BMD) of women who sustained fractures in either 'low' or 'high' trauma events with the BMD of a random sample of women from the same population. BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and expressed as a standardized deviation (Z score) adjusted for age. The BMD Z scores (mean ± SEM) were reduced in both the low and high trauma groups, respectively: spine-posterior-anterior (- 0.50 ± 0.05 and -0.21 ± 0.08), spine-lateral (-0.28 ± 0.06 and -0.19 ± 0.10), femoral neck (-0.42 ± 0.04 and -0.26 ± 0.09), Ward's triangle (- 0.44 ± 0.04 and -0.28 ± 0.08), trochanter (-0.44 ± 0.05 and -0.32 ± 0.08), total body (-0.46 ± 0.06 and -0.32 ± 0.08), ultradistal radius (- 0.47 ± 0.05 and -0.42 ± 0.07), and midradius (-0.52 ± 0.06 and -0.33 ± 0.09). Except at the PA spine, the deficits were no smaller in the high trauma group. Compared with the population, the age-adjusted odds ratio for osteoporosis (t-score < -2.5) at one or more scanning sites was 3.1 (95% confidence interval 1.9, 5.0) in the high trauma group and 2.7 (1.9, 3.8) in the low trauma group. The data suggest that the exclusion of high trauma fractures in women over 50 years of age may result in underestimation of the contribution of osteoporosis to fractures in the community. Bone density measurement of women over 50 years of age who sustain fractures may be warranted irrespective of the classification of trauma.

Half the burden of fragility fractures in the community occur in women without osteoporosis. When is fracture prevention cost-effective?

To determine the age- and BMD-specific burden of fractures in the community and the cost-effectiveness of targeted drug therapy, we studied a demographically well-categorized population with a single main health provider. Of 1224 women over 50 years of age sustaining fractures during 2 years, the distribution of all fractures was 11%, 20%, 33%, and 36% in those aged 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, and 80+ years, respectively. Osteoporosis (T score < −2.5) was present in 20%, 46%, 59%, and 69% in the respective age groups. Based on this sample and census data for the whole country, treating all women over 50 years of age in Australia with a drug that halves fracture risk in osteoporotic women and reduces fractures in those without osteoporosis by 20%, was estimated to prevent 18,000 or 36% of the 50,000 fractures per year at a total cost of $573 million (AUD). Screening using a bone mineral density of T score of −2.5 as a cutoff, misses 80%, 54%, 41%, and 31% of fractures in women in the respective age groups. An analysis of cost per averted fracture by age group suggests that treating women in the 50- to 59-year age group with osteoporosis alone costs $156,400 per averted fracture. However, in women aged over 80 years, the cost per averted fracture is $28,500. We infer that treating all women over 50 years of age is not feasible. Using osteoporosis and age (>60 years) as criteria for intervention reduces the population burden of fractures by 28% and is cost-effective but solutions to the prevention of the remaining 72% of fragility fractures remain unavailable.