Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

hSSB1 interacts directly with the MRN complex stimulating its recruitment to DNA double-strand breaks and its endo-nuclease activity

hSSB1 is a recently discovered single-stranded DNA binding protein that is essential for efficient repair of DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) by the homologous recombination pathway. hSSB1 is required for the efficient recruitment of the MRN complex to sites of DSBs and for the efficient initiation of ATM dependent signalling. Here we explore the interplay between hSSB1 and MRN. We demonstrate that hSSB1 binds directly to NBS1, a component of the MRN complex, in a DNA damage independent manner. Consistent with the direct interaction, we observe that hSSB1 greatly stimulates the endo-nuclease activity of the MRN complex, a process that requires the C-terminal tail of hSSB1. Interestingly, analysis of two point mutations in NBS1, associated with Nijmegen breakage syndrome, revealed weaker binding to hSSB1, suggesting a possible disease mechanism.

hSSB1 rapidly binds at the sites of DNA double-strand breaks and is required for the efficient recruitment of the MRN complex

hSSB1 is a newly discovered single-stranded DNA (ssDNA)-binding protein that is essential for efficient DNA double-strand break signalling through ATM. However, the mechanism by which hSSB1 functions to allow efficient signalling is unknown. Here, we show that hSSB1 is recruited rapidly to sites of double-strand DNA breaks (DSBs) in all interphase cells (G1, S and G2) independently of, CtIP, MDC1 and the MRN complex (Rad50, Mre11, NBS1). However expansion of hSSB1 from the DSB site requires the function of MRN. Strikingly, silencing of hSSB1 prevents foci formation as well as recruitment of MRN to sites of DSBs and leads to a subsequent defect in resection of DSBs as evident by defective RPA and ssDNA generation. Our data suggests that hSSB1 functions upstream of MRN to promote its recruitment at DSBs and is required for efficient resection of DSBs. These findings, together with previous work establish essential roles of hSSB1 in controlling ATM activation and activity, and subsequent DSB resection and homologous recombination (HR).

Forced landing technologies for unmanned aerial vehicles : towards safer operations

While using unmanned systems in combat is not new, what will be new in the foreseeable future is how such systems are used and integrated in the civilian space. The potential use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in civil and commercial applications is becoming a fact, and is receiving considerable attention by industry and the research community. The majority of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles performing civilian tasks are restricted to flying only in segregated space, and not within the National Airspace. The areas that UAVs are restricted to flying in are typically not above populated areas, which in turn are the areas most useful for civilian applications. The reasoning behind the current restrictions is mainly due to the fact that current UAV technologies are not able to demonstrate an Equivalent Level of Safety to manned aircraft, particularly in the case of an engine failure which would require an emergency or forced landing. This chapter will preset and guide the reader through a number of developments that would facilitate the integration of UAVs into the National Airspace. Algorithms for UAV Sense-and-Avoid and Force Landings are recognized as two major enabling technologies that will allow the integration of UAVs in the civilian airspace. The following sections will describe some of the techniques that are currently being tested at the Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation (ARCAA), which places emphasis on the detection of candidate landing sites using computer vision, the planning of the descent path trajectory for the UAV, and the decision making process behind the selection of the final landing site.

Path planning, guidance and control for a UAV forced landing

A forced landing is an unscheduled event in flight requiring an emergency landing, and is most commonly attributed to engine failure, failure of avionics or adverse weather. Since the ability to conduct a successful forced landing is the primary indicator for safety in the aviation industry, automating this capability for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will help facilitate their integration into, and subsequent routine operations over civilian airspace. Currently, there is no commercial system available to perform this task; however, a team at the Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation (ARCAA) is working towards developing such an automated forced landing system. This system, codenamed Flight Guardian, will operate onboard the aircraft and use machine vision for site identification, artificial intelligence for data assessment and evaluation, and path planning, guidance and control techniques to actualize the landing. This thesis focuses on research specific to the third category, and presents the design, testing and evaluation of a Trajectory Generation and Guidance System (TGGS) that navigates the aircraft to land at a chosen site, following an engine failure. Firstly, two algorithms are developed that adapts manned aircraft forced landing techniques to suit the UAV planning problem. Algorithm 1 allows the UAV to select a route (from a library) based on a fixed glide range and the ambient wind conditions, while Algorithm 2 uses a series of adjustable waypoints to cater for changing winds. A comparison of both algorithms in over 200 simulated forced landings found that using Algorithm 2, twice as many landings were within the designated area, with an average lateral miss distance of 200 m at the aimpoint. These results present a baseline for further refinements to the planning algorithms. A significant contribution is seen in the design of the 3-D Dubins Curves planning algorithm, which extends the elementary concepts underlying 2-D Dubins paths to account for powerless flight in three dimensions. This has also resulted in the development of new methods in testing for path traversability, in losing excess altitude, and in the actual path formation to ensure aircraft stability. Simulations using this algorithm have demonstrated lateral and vertical miss distances of under 20 m at the approach point, in wind speeds of up to 9 m/s. This is greater than a tenfold improvement on Algorithm 2 and emulates the performance of manned, powered aircraft. The lateral guidance algorithm originally developed by Park, Deyst, and How (2007) is enhanced to include wind information in the guidance logic. A simple assumption is also made that reduces the complexity of the algorithm in following a circular path, yet without sacrificing performance. Finally, a specific method of supplying the correct turning direction is also used. Simulations have shown that this new algorithm, named the Enhanced Nonlinear Guidance (ENG) algorithm, performs much better in changing winds, with cross-track errors at the approach point within 2 m, compared to over 10 m using Park's algorithm. A fourth contribution is made in designing the Flight Path Following Guidance (FPFG) algorithm, which uses path angle calculations and the MacCready theory to determine the optimal speed to fly in winds. This algorithm also uses proportional integral- derivative (PID) gain schedules to finely tune the tracking accuracies, and has demonstrated in simulation vertical miss distances of under 2 m in changing winds. A fifth contribution is made in designing the Modified Proportional Navigation (MPN) algorithm, which uses principles from proportional navigation and the ENG algorithm, as well as methods specifically its own, to calculate the required pitch to fly. This algorithm is robust to wind changes, and is easily adaptable to any aircraft type. Tracking accuracies obtained with this algorithm are also comparable to those obtained using the FPFG algorithm. For all three preceding guidance algorithms, a novel method utilising the geometric and time relationship between aircraft and path is also employed to ensure that the aircraft is still able to track the desired path to completion in strong winds, while remaining stabilised. Finally, a derived contribution is made in modifying the 3-D Dubins Curves algorithm to suit helicopter flight dynamics. This modification allows a helicopter to autonomously track both stationary and moving targets in flight, and is highly advantageous for applications such as traffic surveillance, police pursuit, security or payload delivery. Each of these achievements serves to enhance the on-board autonomy and safety of a UAV, which in turn will help facilitate the integration of UAVs into civilian airspace for a wider appreciation of the good that they can provide. The automated UAV forced landing planning and guidance strategies presented in this thesis will allow the progression of this technology from the design and developmental stages, through to a prototype system that can demonstrate its effectiveness to the UAV research and operations community.

A forced titration study of the antioxidant and immunomodulatory effects of Ambrotose AO supplement

Background Oxidative stress plays a role in acute and chronic inflammatory disease and antioxidant supplementation has demonstrated beneficial effects in the treatment of these conditions. This study was designed to determine the optimal dose of an antioxidant supplement in healthy volunteers to inform a Phase 3 clinical trial. Methods The study was designed as a combined Phase 1 and 2 open label, forced titration dose response study in healthy volunteers (n = 21) to determine both acute safety and efficacy. Participants received a dietary supplement in a forced titration over five weeks commencing with a no treatment baseline through 1, 2, 4 and 8 capsules. The primary outcome measurement was ex vivo changes in serum oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC). The secondary outcome measures were undertaken as an exploratory investigation of immune function. Results A significant increase in antioxidant activity (serum ORAC) was observed between baseline (no capsules) and the highest dose of 8 capsules per day (p = 0.040) representing a change of 36.6%. A quadratic function for dose levels was fitted in order to estimate a dose response curve for estimating the optimal dose. The quadratic component of the curve was significant (p = 0.047), with predicted serum ORAC scores increasing from the zero dose to a maximum at a predicted dose of 4.7 capsules per day and decreasing for higher doses. Among the secondary outcome measures, a significant dose effect was observed on phagocytosis of granulocytes, and a significant increase was also observed on Cox 2 expression. Conclusion This study suggests that Ambrotose AO® capsules appear to be safe and most effective at a dosage of 4 capsules/day. It is important that this study is not over interpreted; it aimed to find an optimal dose to assess the dietary supplement using a more rigorous clinical trial design. The study achieved this aim and demonstrated that the dietary supplement has the potential to increase antioxidant activity. The most significant limitation of this study was that it was open label Phase 1/Phase 2 trial and is subject to potential bias that is reduced with the use of randomization and blinding. To confirm the benefits of this dietary supplement these effects now need to be demonstrated in a Phase 3 randomised controlled trial (RCT).

Periodically forced natural convection through the roof of an attic-shaped building

In this study, numerical simulations of natural convection in an attic space subject to diurnal temperature condition on the sloping wall have been carried out. An explanation of choosing the period of periodic thermal effect has been given with help of the scaling analysis which is available in the literature. Moreover, the effects of the aspect ratio and Rayleigh number on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been discussed in details as well as the formation of a pitchfork bifurcation of the flow at the symmetric line of the enclosure.

Experimental validation of an unpowered unmanned aerial system : application to forced landing scenarios

The ability to perform autonomous emergency (forced) landings is one of the key technology enablers identified for UAS. This paper presents the flight test results of forced landings involving a UAS, in a controlled environment, and which was conducted to ascertain the performances of previously developed (and published) path planning and guidance algorithms. These novel 3-D nonlinear algorithms have been designed to control the vehicle in both the lateral and longitudinal planes of motion. These algorithms have hitherto been verified in simulation. A modified Boomerang 60 RC aircraft is used as the flight test platform, with associated onboard and ground support equipment sourced Off-the-Shelf or developed in-house at the Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation(ARCAA). HITL simulations were conducted prior to the flight tests and displayed good landing performance, however, due to certain identified interfacing errors, the flight results differed from that obtained in simulation. This paper details the lessons learnt and presents a plausible solution for the way forward.

Analysing and improving a recruitment process : a teaching case for developing business process improvement capabilities

The demand for Business Process Management (BPM) is rapidly rising and with that, the need for capable BPM professionals is also rising. Yet, only a very few structured BPM training/ education programs are available, across universities and professional trainers globally. The ‘lack of appropriate teaching resources’ has been identified as a critical issue for BPM educators in prior studies. Case-based teaching can be an effective means of educating future BPM professionals. A main reason is that cases create an authentic learning environment where the complexities and challenges of the ‘real world’ can be presented in a narrative enabling the students to develop crucial skills such as problem solving, analysis and creativity-within-constraints, and to apply the tools and techniques within a richer and real (or proxy to real) context. However, so far well documented BPM teaching cases are scarce. This article aims to contribute to address this gap by providing a comprehensive teaching case and teaching notes that facilitates the education of selected process improvement phases, namely identification, modelling, analysis, and improvement. The article is divided into three main parts: (i) Introductory teaching notes, (ii) The case narrative, and (iii) Student activities from the case and teaching notes.

Recruitment and training of board members for the 90's and beyond

An historical analysis of the management of the arts in Australia in the last fifty years demonstrates clearly the problems faced by arts organisations which have poorly selected and trained Boards of Directors. Traditionally Board members were selected because they represented the various facets and skills involved in business (marketing, law, accountancy, management, entrepreneurship) or they were arts practitioners or patrons, or they had some particular social standing. Arts organisations recruited Board members like a "mixed bag of lollies - one of these and one of those". No consideration was given to the vital qualities of enthusiasm, reliability, empathy, capacity for hard work, strong arts interest, effective communication skills and respect for organisational processes.

Implantation of osteogenic differentiated donor mesenchymal stem cells causes recruitment of host cells

The interaction between host and donor cells is believed to play an important role in osteogenesis. However, it is still unclear how donor osteogenic cells behave and interact with host cells in vivo. The purpose of this study was to track the interactions between transplanted osteogenic cells and host cells during osteogenesis. In vitro migration assay was carried out to investigate the ability of osteogenic differentiated humanmesenchymal stemcells (O-hMSCs) to recruit MSCs. At the in vivo level, O-hMSCs were implanted subcutaneously or into skull defects in severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice. New bone formation was observed bymicro-CT and histological procedures. In situ hybridization (ISH) against human Alu sequences was performed to distinguish donor osteogenic cells from host cells. In vitro migration assay revealed an increased migration potential of MSCs by co-culturing with O-hMSCs. In agreement with the results of in vitro studies, ISH against human Alu sequences showed that host mouse MSCs migrated in large numbers into the transplantation site in response to O-hMSCs. Interestingly, host cells recruited by O-hMSCs were the major cell populations in newly formed bone tissues, indicating that O-hMSCs can trigger and initiate osteogenesis when transplanted in orthotopic sites. The observations fromthis study demonstrated that in vitro induced O-hMSCs were able to attract hostMSCs in vivo andwere involved inosteogenesis togetherwith host cells,whichmay be of importance for bone tissue-engineering applications.

Adaptive subcarrier allocation in multiuser OFDM system using forced cost based decisions

Subcarrier allocation scheme for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing(OFDM) based multiuser system is proposed. Most previous algorithms use greedy approach as a subcarrier allocation scheme until a conflict occurs or as an initial first round allocation with improvement steps carried out in next rounds. Our algorithm uses information obtained by the forced costs of a system that incur by a current allocation to make assignment decisions. This algorithm does not rely on greedy approach and therefore can also be considered as a substitute for first layer Greedy algorithms. Simulation results show that for two user case this algorithm gives better or equal allocation 80-90 percent of the time when compared with the greedy allocation.

Resource allocation in multiuser cooperative OFDM system using forced cost based decisions

A sub optimal resource allocation algorithm for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) based cooperative scheme is proposed. The system consists of multiple relays. Subcarrier space is divided into blocks and relays participating in cooperation are allocated specific blocks to be used with a user. To ensure unique subcarrier assignment system is constrained such that same block cannot be used by more than one user. Users are given fair block assignments while no restriction for maximum number of blocks a relay can employ is given. Forced cost based decisions [1] are used for block allocation. Simulation results show that this scheme outperforms a non cooperating scheme with sequential allocation with respect to power usage.