The Pay-Off Method as a Tool for Evaluating the Risk and Profitability of Public Real Estate Investments

Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Value added KPI service delivery with quality function deployment: Multiple case study in asset & real estate management

The aim of this study is to investigate value added service concept for an asset and real estate management case company. The initial purpose was to recognize the most value adding key performance indicators (KPIs) information delivered for its customers, real estate investors with value added service. The multiple case study strategy included two focus group interviews with five case interviews in total. Additionally, quality function deployment (QFD) was used in order to form up the service process. The study starts with introduction and methodology explaining the demand for the thesis study. The subsequent chapter presents the theoretical background on real estate management KPIs in four main points of views and quality function deployment from the service development point of view. The chapter also defines research gap for the case study. According to the case study interviews, the most favored KPIs to deliver for the clients are income maturity of lease agreements and leasing activity. These KPIs and quality characteristics are translated into the QFD. In total, the service QFD explains the service planning, process control, and action plan phases.

Life-related negative customer emotions in real estate agent encounters

The goal of this study was to explore how do customers’ life-related negative emotions affect real estate business. This was divided into two research questions: 1. What life-related negative emotions can be recognised in real estate customer encounters? 2. How do the recognised emotions affect customer encounters and the realtor’s work? 3. How can the realtor take the emotions into account in customer service? The theoretical background consists of two main lines of study: emotions and customer encounters. A wide literary review on emotions research was conducted from a cognitive psychology point of view, focusing on negative emotions. Emotions research was then combined into the field of customer encounters. Qualitative study was chosen as the methodological basis of the study. Empirical material of this study was collected through in-depth interviews with 13 successful Finnish real estate agents. Narrative research was used as a method for the study. Four life-related emotion categories were recognized in real estate customer encounters: sadness, anger, anxiety and shame. These emotions rose from issues varying from death of a close one to divorce and from major changes in life stages to deep emotional attachment to an old home. The study also found that these incidental negative emotions do affect customer encounters and realtors’ work. The emotions affected the decision making of customers and sometimes overshadowed reason. Some emotions made the customer passive and slow to make any decisions, while others made their decision making fast and hasty. Even though the incidental emotions might not have had anything to do with the real estate deal, they could affect the outcome of the customer encounter and the whole real estate deal. Interestingly enough, the study found that not all successful real estate agents knowingly serve customers in an emotional level. The study does, however, suggest that in fact it may be an ethical decision of the customer server to take into account the emotional state of the customer. Attending to the emotional side of customers does not only increase pleasantness of the customer encounter, but may improve and balance customer decision making and prevent hasty decisions possibly leading to improved customer satisfaction. This study also gave practical managerial implications to customer service providers on how negative incidental emotions can be attended to in a customer encounter. This study could be useful not only to real estate agents, but also in other types of customer service, especially with vulnerable populations or other types of home-related business.

Broadside advertising a Real Estate Auction in the Village of Niagara Falls [New York], July, 1836.

Benjamin Rathburn (1790-1873) was a builder, banker and hotel-keeper who was well-known for his work in the development and expansion of Buffalo in the 1830s. He also conducted business in the Village of Niagara Falls. He purchased large tracts of land (largely on credit) with the intent to sell the land at a profit. However, the sales did not meet his expectations and Rathburn found himself over-extended on credit, ultimately leading to his financial ruin.Jesse P. Haines (1793-1877) was an American cartographer who is credited with mapping the Villages of Lockport and Niagara Falls, New York.

Broadside advertising a Real Estate Auction in the Village of Niagara Falls [New York], July, 1836.

Benjamin Rathburn (1790-1873) was a builder, banker and hotel-keeper who was well-known for his work in the development and expansion of Buffalo in the 1830s. He also conducted business in the Village of Niagara Falls. He purchased large tracts of land (largely on credit) with the intent to sell the land at a profit. However, the sales did not meet his expectations and Rathburn found himself over-extended on credit, ultimately leading to his financial ruin. Jesse P. Haines (1793-1877) was an American cartographer who is credited with mapping the Villages of Lockport and Niagara Falls, New York.

Cogswell, Maria, includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Insurance Policy, Mortgage Loan Envelope

Cogswell, Maria, includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Feb. 20, 1882; Insurance Policy no. 2199780 from the Royal Insurance Company of Liverpool, March 17, 1887 and Mortgage Loan Envelope for mortgage no. 1535 from March 1, 1882 – March 1, 1887.

Conklin, Pearl J., includes: Application for loan on Real Estate

Conklin, Pearl J., includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Aug. 11, 1882.

Dennis, George W. and Mary E. Dennis, includes: Application for Loan on Real Estate, and Abstract of Title

Dennis, George W. and Mary E. Dennis, includes: Application for Loan on Real Estate, July 10, 1882; and Abstract of Title, Sept. 2, 1882.

Rogers, Stephen A., Application for a Loan on Real Estate

Rogers, Stephen A., Application for a Loan on Real Estate, April 4, 1882.

Sampson, Albert, includes Application for a Loan on Real Estate, and an envelope with Mr. Sampson’s name crossed out

Sampson, Albert, includes Application for a Loan on Real Estate, April 19, 1882 and an envelope with Mr. Sampson’s name crossed out and postmarked Sept. 1882.

Williams, Thomas J., Application for a Loan on Real Estate

Williams, Thomas J., Application for a Loan on Real Estate, April 1, 1882.

Comparing Predictive Accuracy of Real Estate Pricing Models: An Applied Study for the City of Montreal.

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