La aplicación estratégica por escenarios en el medio natural. El caso del Nature Outlook 2050 del PBL.

La prospectiva es parte de la planificación estratégica. Es una herramienta habitual en la gestión y dirección de empresas. Algunos países europeos la incluyen dentro de sus trabajos de diseño de las políticas ambientales. La generación de escenarios es una técnica cualitativa de prospectiva apta para los entornos con alta variabilidad y complejidad. El artículo explica el modo de aplicar esta técnica poniendo en paralelo los pasos dados en el proyecto Nature Outlook 2050 que ha desarrollado la agencia de evaluación y prospectiva ambiental de los Países Bajos (PBL).

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

The outlook for agriculture and rural development in the Americas: a perspective on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2009

Includes bibliography

The outlook for agriculture and rural development in the Americas: a perspective on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010

Includes Bibliography

Latin American Economic Outlook 2013: SMEs policies for structural change

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2010-2011: improving economic prospects amid global recovery

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2015. The regional trade crisis: assessment and outlook.

With external conditions sluggish and highly uncertain as the global economy still struggles to shake off the effects of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, the Latin American and Caribbean region is not isolated from these effects and is projected to record a small drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, followed by a weak recovery in 2016. Against this backdrop, 2015 will be the third consecutive year of increasing declines in regional export values; a state of affairs not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This poor performance reflects the end of the commodity price boom, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the weak recovery of the eurozone and the lacklustre economic activity in the region, particularly in South America.

The role of anti-VEGF agents in myopic choroidal neovascularization: Current standards and future outlook

Introduction The global prevalence of pathologic myopia is 0.9-3.1%, and visual impairment is found in 0.1-0.5% of European and 0.2-1.4% of Asian studies. Myopic choroidal neovascularization (mCNV) affects 5.2-11.3% of pathologic myopia patients and is a leading cause of vision impairment in the working-age population. Characteristic morphological changes and visual-acuity decrease are diagnostic features. Vascular-Endothelial-Growth-Factor (VEGF) has been identified as a trigger for pathologic neovascularization in these highly myopic patients. Areas Covered We cover the epidemiology, pathology and diagnostic aspects of mCNV. The history of therapeutic interventions is described, followed by an overview of current standard-of-care (SOC)-blocking VEGF using bevacizumab (off-label), ranibizumab or aflibercept and improving vision up to 13.5-14.4 letters. Despite good efficacy, an unmet medical need remains. We summarize ongoing and future developments of new drugs to treat or potentially cure mCNV. Expert Opinion mCNV is a major global health concern. Early detection and treatment is key for a satisfying outcome. The current SOC, VEGF inhibitors, affords good therapeutic efficacy and reasonable disease stabilization with few intravitreal treatments per year. However, the long-term prognosis is still unsatisfactory, and side-effects like chorioretinal atrophy development are of concern. Therefore, efforts should be intensified to develop more effective therapies.

U.S. industry & trade outlook.

No issues published for 1996-1997.

U.S. Economic Outlook: Quarterly developments

U.S. economic growth disappointed in the first quarter of 2016, as global conditions continued to have an adverse impact. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s third estimate, the GDP grew at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, up from a previous estimate of 0.8%, and down from 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Growth was under 1.5% for the last two quarters, the worst six-month performance in nearly three years.

Global engineering education: Australia and the Bologna process

This paper presents a critical comparison of major changes in engineering education in both Australia and Europe. European engineering programs are currently being reshaped by the Bologna process, representing a move towards quality assurance in higher education and the mutual recognition of degrees among universities across Europe. Engineering education in Australia underwent a transformation after the 1996 review of engineering education1. The paper discusses the recent European developments in order to give up-to-date information on this fast changing and sometimes obscure process. The comparison draws on the implications of the Bologna Process on the German engineering education system as an example. It concludes with issues of particular interest, which can help to inform the international discussion on how to meet today’s challenges for engineering education. These issues include ways of achieving diversityamong engineering programs, means of enabling student and staff mobility, and the preparation of engineering students for professional practic e through engineering education. As a result, the benefits of outcomes based approaches in education are discussed. This leads to an outlook for further research into the broader attributes required by future professional engineers. © 2005, Australasian Association for Engineering Education

Outlook and application status of the Rolls-Royce Fuel Cell Systems SOFC

Rolls-Royce fuel cell systems is developing megawatt scale power systems based on solid oxide fuel cell technology. The hybrid design promises to meet challenging energy efficiency, cost and performance targets in a grid friendly fashion. Analysis and testing to date indicate that those targets can be met and enable a wealth of fuel cell applications to meet customer and existing grid and modern grid requirements. Working with a global development team, a series of laboratory tests and evaluations are completed and future field test and evaluation and demonstration planned.

Participation of portuguese manufacturing industry in global value chains

Portugal’s manufacturing sector has a significant importance both in national income and employment. As has been pointed out by several researchers, the traditional methods of analysis fail to grasp all the dimensions of economic competitiveness. This dissertation is then, at its core, an analysis of Portugal’s manufacturing industry in terms of the latter’s value added to production and impact to employment under the framework of global value chains. The current dissertation seeks to study in which way the Portuguese manufacturing industry, and its respective sectors, has a direct and indirect impact on the creation of value added and employment and how this impact can be measured. For development of this work the input-output approach for calculation of multipliers and the new framework proposed by Timmer et al. (2013) for calculation of GVC income and GVC jobs indicators were used, elaborated on the basis of the WIOD project dataset. Moreover, to illustrate the application of the provided methodology the Portuguese textile industry was used as an example. It was found that the changes in final demand of such sectors as Pulp, Paper, Printing and Publishing; Machinery, Nec and Textiles and Textile Products would have a larger impact on generated value added than other manufacturing sectors. At the same time, employment created by the changes in final demand would be more impacted by such sectors as Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Wood and Products of Wood and Cork and Textiles and Textile Products. In this regard, the number of low-skilled workers in Portugal seems to be more effected by changes in final demand, than those occupied by higher -skilled individuals. Moreover, it was found that the distribution of GVC income and GVC jobs for the Portuguese manufacturing industry shares a similar outlook. However, upon closer inspection of GVC labour distribution by skill levels there seems to exist a general progression in which low-skilled jobs requirements are met by local resources, while the need for higher skilled jobs require a greater “off-shoring” of work The results obtained through calculations of presented multipliers provide a powerful tool for policy makers in strategic planning of development of national economy. Using the provided methodology and obtained results, a government and supranational organizations could define which industry would have the greatest impact for an additional unit of output generated through the economy, and thus define the sectors for further investments.