Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Paix soutenable : rapports de force et affaiblissement des extrémistes en Angola, en Colombie, au Salvador et au Mozambique de 1989 à 1999

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

El concepto de asimilación cultural en la Política Migratoria de Francia. Un análisis desde la migración proveniente de la región del Magreb (2007-2012)

El presente estudio de caso busca determinar el rol que desempeñó el concepto de asimilación cultural en la formulación de la política migratoria francesa durante el periodo presidencial de Nicolás Sarkozy. Ante el surgimiento de una política rígida y vertical hacia los grupos inmigrantes presentes en Francia, se cuestiona la coherencia y eficacia de dichas medidas no sólo en torno a la adecuada regulación e integración de los inmigrantes magrebíes -y por extensión de otros grupos- sino en tanto el asimilacionismo ha sido constantemente asociado con el extremismo de diversos grupos políticos. En este sentido, se hace el análisis de algunas de las acciones discursivas de Sarkozy ante este tema, utilizando la técnica propuesta por Teun van Dijk. Este ejercicio permitió determinar que el modelo de asimilación cultural de los migrantes del Magreb habría direccionado parcialmente la formulación de la política migratoria de Francia, durante el periodo 2007-2012.

Aplicaciones Organizacionales de TREC en el modelo RET

Las aplicaciones organizacionales de modelos psicológicos son una realidad frecuente en la práctica profesional. Sin embargo es frecuente que los soportes teóricos no sean elaborados de forma expresiva, debido al pragmatismo del entorno organizacional. Esta situación es visible al considerar el lenguaje, la estructura y el soporte teórico recogido en las publicaciones de psicólogos dirigidos al público de las empresas (el management). No obstante, las propuestas teóricas psicológicas en el campo del desarrollo, el desarrollo humano, la respuesta emocional, el aprendizaje en adultos y la cognición entre otros soportan modelos aplicados y desarrollos pragmáticos específicos. Así ocurre en el caso de TREC, que reconoce como los obstáculos emocionales relacionados con sobredemandas influyen negativamente en la comunicación y los vínculos que soportan el liderazgo en entorno organizacional. Diferentes aportes desde la inteligencia emocional permitirán entender y conectar la relación de estas teorías.

La incidencia del Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán en el establecimiento de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en Asia Central 1991-2012

El interés del presente estudio de caso es analizar la estrategia de securitización implementada por el Presidente de la Republica de Uzbekistán Islam Karimov sobre el Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán. Se describe y se explica cómo desde las lógicas históricas y étnicas acontecidas en Asia Central, se pueden comprender los alcances internacionales de la confrontación antagónica ejercida entre uzbekos al apoyar ideas de corte secular e islamista. Así, siguiendo los parámetros establecidos por Barry Buzan con respecto a la securitización, se puede llegar a identificar la creación de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en la región de Asia Central, cuyos logros permitieron disminuir el riesgo de la amenaza insurgente.

The civic zeitgeist: nationalism and liberal values in the European radical right

This article examines the relationship between nationalism and liberal values, and more specifically the redefinition of boundaries between national communities and others in the rhetoric of radical right parties in Europe. The aim is to examine the tension between radical right party discourse and the increasing need to shape this discourse in liberal terms. We argue that the radical right parties that successfully operate within the democratic system tend to be those best able to tailor their discourse to the liberal and civic characteristics of national identity so as to present themselves and their ideologies as the true authentic defenders of the nation's unique reputation for democracy, diversity and tolerance. Comparing the success of a number of European radical right parties ranging from the most electorally successful SVP to the more mixed BNP, FN and NPD, we show that the parties that effectively deploy the symbolic resources of national identity through a predominantly voluntaristic prism tend to be the ones that fare better within their respective political systems. In doing so, we challenge the conventional view in the study of nationalism which expects civic values to shield countries from radicalism and extremism.

La cooperazione dell'UE nella creazione di uno spazio sicuro nella globalizzazione come possibile modello per la regione dell'Asia Centrale

Gli ultimi anni hanno visto importanti cambiamenti positivi nella cooperazione interstatale in Asia centrale. Crescenti minacce come il terrorismo internazionale, l'estremismo religioso e politico, il traffico di droga, ecc, causati dagli interessi geopolitici e geo-economici delle potenze mondiali, hanno contribuito alla formazione di una politica estera più coordinata e coerente degli Stati della regione. Questo processo si manifesta nella partecipazione attiva dell’istituzionalizzazione della Shanghai Organizzazione del Commonwealth (SOC), Conferenza sulle misure di costruzione d’interazione e fiducia in Asia (CICA) e Organizzazione del Trattato di Sicurezza Collettiva (CSTO). Problemi moderni di sicurezza in Asia centrale dovrebbero essere risolti in dei nuovi modi, non convenzionali. Le nuove minacce alla sicurezza richiedono modi non standard per risolvere il problema. Considerate le differenze fondamentali dell'Unione europea e degli Stati dell'Asia centrale nei valori e dal punto di vista in materia di sicurezza. I paesi dell'Asia centrale non sono pronti per l'integrazione politica. Nonostante questo, nell’Asia centrale sono state adottate misure per contrastare le minacce non convenzionali. L’esperienza europea di unire gli sforzi della regione per garantire la sicurezza interna, può essere utilizzata dai paesi dell'Asia centrale, soprattutto, in primo luogo sulla formazione del quadro istituzionale e giuridico per la cooperazione operativa delle forze dell'ordine per le seguenti aree: • prevenzione del traffico di droga attraverso gli Stati dell'Asia centrale; • lotta contro nuove forme di terrorismo ed estremismo; • limitare la dimensione della migrazione clandestina; • migliorare la protezione giuridica dei cittadini. Fino a poco tempo fa, questi temi hanno ricevuto poca attenzione, sia nella teoria sia nella pratica, poiché i problemi di sicurezza della società erano principalmente ridotti per evitare il pericolo di guerra.

Islamophobia as Reactive Co-Radicalization

Since 9/11, 2001, a new form of religious extremism has arguably emerged, one which paradoxically portrays itself as a counter to another perceived extremism regarded as a real and imminent threat. Within North America and Western Europe, as elsewhere, there is an upsurge of various forms of reactionary rhetoric and opposition expressed towards Islam and Muslims. An increase in extremist behaviour, even violence, is appearing from quarters opposed to, or varyingly fearful of, Islamic extremism if not Islam or Muslims. Islamophobia, as a manifestation of fear of an exclusionary Islam, manifests as exclusionary or negatively reactive behaviours with Muslims and Islam as the target. This article explores the idea that Islamophobia can be regarded as a manifestation of religious extremism and, further, that such extremism is construable as “reactive co-radicalization.” It focuses on two European cases – the 2009 Swiss ban on the building of minarets and the 2011 Norwegian massacre carried out by Anders Breivik – as examples of this “reactive co-radicalization.” This term, I suggest, is an apt denominator for the exclusionary reaction to the rising presence of Islam within otherwise secular, albeit nominally Christian, Western European and North American societies, among others.

The Vernacular Discourse of the "Arab Spring:" An Analysis of the Visual, the Embodied, and the Textual Rhetorics of the Karama Revolution

The Vernacular Discourse of the "Arab Spring" is a project that bridges the divide between the East and the West by offering new readings to Arab subjectivities. Through an analysis of the "Arab Spring" through the lens of vernacular discourse, it challenges the Euro-Americo-centric legacies of Orientalism in Western academia and the new wave of extremism in the Arab world by offering alternative representations of Arab bodies and subjectivities. To offer this new reading of the "Arab Spring," it explores the foundations of critical rhetoric as a theory and a practice and argues for a turn towards a critical vernacular discourse. The turn towards critical vernacular discourse is important as it urges the analyses of different artifacts produced by marginalized groups in order to understand their perspectives that have largely been foreclosed in traditional cultural studies research. Building on embodied/performative critical rhetoric, the vernacular discourses of the Arab revolutionary body examines other forms of knowledge productions that are not merely textual; more specifically, through data gathered in the Lhbib Bourguiba, Tunisia. This analysis of the political revolutionary body unveils the complexity underlining the discussion around issues of identity, agency and representation in the Middle East and North Africa, and calls for a critical study towards these issues in the region beyond the binary approach that has been practiced and applied by academics and media analysts. Hence, by analyzing vernacular discourse, this research locates a method of examining and theorizing the dialectic between agency, citizenry, and subjectivity through the study of how power structure is recreated and challenged through the use of the vernacular in revolutionary movements, as well as how marginalized groups construct their own subjectivities through the use of vernacular discourse. Therefore, highlighting the political prominence of evaluating the Arab Spring as a vernacular discourse is important in creating new ways of understanding communication in postcolonial/neocolonial settings.

Everyday Indivisibility: How Exclusive Religious Practices Explain Variation in Subnational Violence Outcomes

This project explores the puzzle of religious violence variation. Religious actors initiate conflict at a higher rate than their secular counterparts, last longer, are more deadly, and are less prone to negotiated termination. Yet the legacy of religious peacemakers on the reduction of violence is undeniable. Under what conditions does religion contribute to escalated violence and under what conditions does it contribute to peace? I argue that more intense everyday practices of group members, or high levels of orthopraxy, create dispositional indivisibilities that make violence a natural alternative to bargaining. Subnational armed groups with members whose practices are exclusive and isolating bind together through ritual practice, limit the acceptable decisions of leaders, and have prolonged timeframes, all of which result in higher levels of intensity, intransigence and resolve during violent conflict. The theory challenges both instrumentalist and constructivist understandings of social identity and violence. To support this argument, I construct an original cross-national data-set that employs ethnographic data on micro-level religious practices for 724 subnational armed groups in both civil wars and terror campaigns. Using this data, I build an explanatory “religious practice index” for each observation and examine its relationship with conflict outcomes. Findings suggest that exclusive practice groups fight significantly longer with more intensity and negotiate less. I also apply the practice model to qualitative cases. Fieldwork in the West Bank and Sierra Leone reveals that groups with more exclusive religious practicing membership are principle contributors to violence, whereas those with inclusive practices can contribute to peace. The project concludes with a discussion about several avenues for future research and identifies the practical policy applications to better identify and combat religious extremism.

DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP IN NORTH AFRICA AFTER THE ARAB AWAKENING: CHALLENGES FOR EU AND US FOREIGN POLICY (EUSPRING). Arab Citizenship Review No. 6, October 2014. EGYPT. The Return to Authoritarianism and the Crisis of Citizenship Rights

Citizenship and democratic rights have been shrinking in Egypt with the rise of president Abd El Fattah El Sisi, widely popular among Egyptians who fear more violence and unrest in an increasingly volatile region. In this EU Spring Policy Brief, Moataz El Fegiery examines the political landscape in the run-up of parliamentary elections, arguing that the short term is likely to see further curtailment of acquired rights, further crackdown on the opposition and consolidation of military power. In the longer term, however, it is in the interest of Egyptian society and institutions as well as of Europe to reverse the politics of exclusion and ensure that freedoms, pluralism and participation prevent the rise of extremism and political violence.

Populism in the EU: new threats to the open society? CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014.

In May 2014, around one in four Europeans voted for protest parties and anti-establishment candidates in the first pan-European poll since the euro crisis began. The rise of populism across Europe has brought more extremism of various kinds into the European Parliament. It could change the balance of power between the institutions, and be detrimental to EU policies, legislation and funding that nurture open societies. This chapter will consider the impact of xenophobic populist parties, who have also become increasingly anti-EU, not considering here the extreme left Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) who entered the Parliament.

Riding or Reaping the Whirlwind? An Account of the EU’s Engagement with Insecurity in Northern Nigeria. EU Diplomacy Paper No. 9, November 2014

The relations of the European Union (EU) with Africa are increasingly spreading beyond the domain of humanitarian and development cooperation. The continent’s growing potential is producing vast webs of interlinkages in the realms of energy and commerce, among others. At the same time, such interdependencies bring with them increased vulnerabilities to insecurity on the continent. Nigeria exemplifies such a dilemma. The country has just taken the top spot as Africa’s largest economy. Of late, however, violent Islamic extremism ravages the north of the country, threatening the stability of one of Europe’s foremost energy suppliers and a growing trade partner. Thus, this paper sets out to uncover the EU’s response to such a crisis, as well as examining the factors lying behind this response. While the study argues that the issue is potentially ‘Europeaniz-able’ from a member state perspective, deep engagement is seen to be held back by the absence of an effective entry point for securitization with this important ally, as well as the intractability of the EU’s purported multi-functional approach to the idiosyncrasies of the conflict in question, in which not only transnational terrorist groups, but also the central government are centrally implicated in deepening insecurity.

Die Poetik des Extremen. Ausschreitungen einer Sprache des Radikalen:excesses of a language of radical

Gibt es eine Traditionslinie extremistischer Poetiken in der deutschsprachigen Literatur? Uwe Schütte untersucht anhand literarischer Texte ab dem späten 18. Jahrhundert den Konnex zwischen historischen Phänomenen wie Revolution, Krieg oder Terrorismus und extremen biografischen Umständen wie Schizophrenie für die Herausbildung radikaler Schreibweisen. Die Spannbreite der behandelten Autoren reicht dabei von der Klassikertrias Kleist, Hölderlin und Büchner über Schriftsteller des 20. Jahrhunderts wie Ernst Jünger oder Hans Henny Jahnn bis zu den Gegenwartsautoren Ernst Herbeck und Rainald Goetz. The study investigates aesthetic representations of extremism in German-language literature from around 1800 to the present. Its aim is to examine the interplay between three different areas: historical circumstances, (auto)biographical issues, and literary texts. Discussed are texts by both major and marginal writers from various genres, ranging from classics such as Heinrich von Kleist or Friedrich Hölderlin to the marginalised poet Ernst Herbeck or the contemporary writer Rainald Goetz. Subjects and factors considered include extremist phenomena in modern history (such as revolutions, wars, terrorism) and extreme individual experiences (such as suicide or schizophrenia) on the aesthetic domain(s) with regard to the production of literary discourses that could be considered as extremist. These manifest themselves in the development of what can be viewed as ‘radical poetics’, decidedly innovative styles of writing and moral or political transgression in fiction. Being the first critical attempt to trace the history of radical discourses in German literature, the study explores the validity of creating an aesthetic category of 'literary extremism'.