New Improvements in Automatic Structure Elucidation Using the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and the SISTEMAT Expert Systems

This article describes the integration of the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and SISTEMAT expert systems that were both designed for the computer-assisted structure elucidation of small organic molecules. A first step has been achieved towards the linking of the SISTEMAT database with the LSD structure generator. The skeletal descriptions found by the SISTEMAT programs are now easily transferred to LSD as substructural constraints. Examples of the synergy between these expert systems are given for recently reported natural products.

Expert systems for quality prediction in structural engineering

This work deals with quality level prediction in concrete structures through the helpful assistance of an expert system wich is able to apply reasoning to this field of structural engineering. Evidences, hypotheses and factors related to this human knowledge field have been codified into a Knowledge Base in terms of probabilities for the presence of either hypotheses or evidences,and conditional presence of both. Human experts in structural engineering and safety of structures gave their invaluable knowledge and assistance necessary when constructing the "computer knowledge body".

Expert systems for crash data collection.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations, Washington, D.C.

An analysis of the distinction between deep and shallow expert systems /

This paper analyzes the relationship between the techniques used to build expert systems and the behaviors they exhibit to show that there is not sufficient evidence to link the behavioral shortcomings of first-generation expert systems to the shallow methods of representation and inference they employ. There is only evidence that the shortcomings are a consequence of a general lack of knowledge. Moreover, the paper shows that the first-generation of expert systems employ both shallow methods and most of the so-called deep methods. Lastly, we show that deeper methods augment but do not replace shallow reasoning methods; most expert systems should possess both."

Expert systems for vendor selection

The survival of organisations, especially SMEs, depends, to the greatest extent, on those who supply them with the required material input. This is because if the supplier fails to deliver the right materials at the right time and place, and at the right price, then the recipient organisation is bound to fail in its obligations to satisfy the needs of its customers, and to stay in business. Hence, the task of choosing a supplier(s) from a list of vendors, that an organisation will trust with its very existence, is not an easy one. This project investigated how purchasing personnel in organisations solve the problem of vendor selection. The investigation went further to ascertain whether an Expert Systems model could be developed and used as a plausible solution to the problem. An extensive literature review indicated that very scanty research has been conducted in the area of Expert Systems for Vendor Selection, whereas many research theories in expert systems and in purchasing and supply management chain, respectively, had been reported. A survey questionnaire was designed and circulated to people in the industries who actually perform the vendor selection tasks. Analysis of the collected data confirmed the various factors which are considered during the selection process, and established the order in which those factors are ranked. Five of the factors, namely, Production Methods Used, Vendors Financial Background, Manufacturing Capacity, Size of Vendor Organisations, and Suppliers Position in the Industry; appeared to have similar patterns in the way organisations ranked them. These patterns suggested that the bigger the organisation, the more importantly they regarded the above factors. Further investigations revealed that respondents agreed that the most important factors were: Product Quality, Product Price and Delivery Date. The most apparent pattern was observed for the Vendors Financial Background. This generated curiosity which led to the design and development of a prototype expert system for assessing the financial profile of a potential supplier(s). This prototype was called ESfNS. It determines whether a prospective supplier(s) has good financial background or not. ESNS was tested by the potential users who then confirmed that expert systems have great prospects and commercial viability in the domain for solving vendor selection problems.

Web-based expert systems:benefits and challenges

Convergence of technologies in the Internet and the field of expert systems have offered new ways of sharing and distributing knowledge. However, there has been a general lack of research in the area of web-based expert systems (ES). This paper addresses the issues associated with the design, development, and use of web-based ES from a standpoint of the benefits and challenges of developing and using them. The original theory and concepts in conventional ES were reviewed and a knowledge engineering framework for developing them was revisited. The study considered three web-based ES: WITS-advisor - for e-business strategy development, Fish-Expert - for fish disease diagnosis, and IMIS - to promote intelligent interviews. The benefits and challenges in developing and using ES are discussed by comparing them with traditional standalone systems from development and application perspectives. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for marketing strategy development:the hybridisation and its effectiveness

A hybrid approach for integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for developing marketing strategies is proposed in this paper. Within this approach, the group Delphi method is employed to help groups of managers undertake SWOT analysis. Fuzzy logic is applied to fuzzify the results of SWOT analysis. Expert systems are utilised to formulate marketing strategies based upon the fuzzified strategic inputs. In addition, guidelines are also provided to help users link the hybrid approach with managerial judgement and intuition. The effectiveness of the hybrid approach has been validated with MBA and MA marketing students. It is concluded that the hybrid approach is more effective in terms of decision confidence, group consensus, helping to understand strategic factors, helping strategic thinking, and coupling analysis with judgement, etc.

Expert systems for fault tree synthesis

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies on chemical process plants are very time consuming, and often tedious, tasks. The requirement for HAZOP studies is that a team of experts systematically analyse every conceivable process deviation, identifying possible causes and any hazards that may result. The systematic nature of the task, and the fact that some team members may be unoccupied for much of the time, can lead to tedium, which in turn may lead to serious errors or omissions. An aid to HAZOP are fault trees, which present the system failure logic graphically such that the study team can readily assimilate their findings. Fault trees are also useful to the identification of design weaknesses, and may additionally be used to estimate the likelihood of hazardous events occurring. The one drawback of fault trees is that they are difficult to generate by hand. This is because of the sheer size and complexity of modern process plants. The work in this thesis proposed a computer-based method to aid the development of fault trees for chemical process plants. The aim is to produce concise, structured fault trees that are easy for analysts to understand. Standard plant input-output equation models for major process units are modified such that they include ancillary units and pipework. This results in a reduction in the nodes required to represent a plant. Control loops and protective systems are modelled as operators which act on process variables. This modelling maintains the functionality of loops, making fault tree generation easier and improving the structure of the fault trees produced. A method, called event ordering, is proposed which allows the magnitude of deviations of controlled or measured variables to be defined in terms of the control loops and protective systems with which they are associated.

Expert systems for fault analysis

The initial aim of this research was to investigate the application of expert Systems, or Knowledge Base Systems technology to the automated synthesis of Hazard and Operability Studies. Due to the generic nature of Fault Analysis problems and the way in which Knowledge Base Systems work, this goal has evolved into a consideration of automated support for Fault Analysis in general, covering HAZOP, Fault Tree Analysis, FMEA and Fault Diagnosis in the Process Industries. This thesis described a proposed architecture for such an Expert System. The purpose of the System is to produce a descriptive model of faults and fault propagation from a description of the physical structure of the plant. From these descriptive models, the desired Fault Analysis may be produced. The way in which this is done reflects the complexity of the problem which, in principle, encompasses the whole of the discipline of Process Engineering. An attempt is made to incorporate the perceived method that an expert uses to solve the problem; keywords, heuristics and guidelines from techniques such as HAZOP and Fault Tree Synthesis are used. In a truly Expert System, the performance of the system is strongly dependent on the high quality of the knowledge that is incorporated. This expert knowledge takes the form of heuristics or rules of thumb which are used in problem solving. This research has shown that, for the application of fault analysis heuristics, it is necessary to have a representation of the details of fault propagation within a process. This helps to ensure the robustness of the system - a gradual rather than abrupt degradation at the boundaries of the domain knowledge.

The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

An approach to the development of expert systems within production planning and control

The thesis presents an account of an attempt to utilize expert systems within the domain of production planning and control. The use of expert systems was proposed due to the problematical nature of a particular function within British Steel Strip Products' Operations Department: the function of Order Allocation, allocating customer orders to a production week and site. Approaches to tackling problems within production planning and control are reviewed, as are the general capabilities of expert systems. The conclusions drawn are that the domain of production planning and control contains both `soft' and `hard' problems, and that while expert systems appear to be a useful technology for this domain, this usefulness has by no means yet been demonstrated. Also, it is argued that the main stream methodology for developing expert systems is unsuited for the domain. A problem-driven approach is developed and used to tackle the Order Allocation function. The resulting system, UAAMS, contained two expert components. One of these, the scheduling procedure was not fully implemented due to inadequate software. The second expert component, the product routing procedure, was untroubled by such difficulties, though it was unusable on its own; thus a second system was developed. This system, MICRO-X10, duplicated the function of X10, a complex database query routine used daily by Order Allocation. A prototype version of MICRO-X10 proved too slow to be useful but allowed implementation and maintenance issues to be analysed. In conclusion, the usefulness of the problem-driven approach to expert systems development within production planning and control is demonstrated but restrictions imposed by current expert system software are highlighted in that the abilities of such software to cope with `hard' scheduling constructs and also the slow processing speeds of such software can restrict the current usefulness of expert systems within production planning and control.

The Experience of Development and Application Perspectives of Learning Integrated Expert Systems in the Educational Process

The main principles and experience of development of learning integrated expert systems based on the third generation instrumental complex AT-TECHNOLOGY are considered.