Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Life expectancy and human capital investment: the arrival of AIDS treatment in Brazil

This paper provides microevidence on the relationship between life expectancy and educational investment decisions. Human capital theory predicts an increase in life expectancy should lead to an augmenting in schooling investment. This paper uses an unique data set on AIDS patients among Brazilian inhabitants in an attempt to estimate the impact of the arrival of Antiretroviral therapy (ART) on educational outcomes. The availability of ART offsets the negative relationship between vertical HIV-transmission and schooling, around 68% and 57% for elementary and high school completion, respectively. Robustness tests indicate the results are not driven by convergence effects.

Temporal polyethism and life expectancy of workers in the eusocial wasp polistes canadensis canadensis Linnaeus (Hymenoptera: Vespidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Manual responses to visual stimuli: early and late facilitatory effects due to the offset of a peripheral cue

Os tempos de reação manuais e sacádicos (TRMs e TRSs) são reduzidos quando um sinal de aviso precede o aparecimento do alvo. O decréscimo nos TRSs observados depois do desaparecimento do ponto de fixação tem sido chamado de efeito de intervalo. Teorias diferentes foram propostas para explicá-lo. De acordo com alguns autores, o desaparecimento também permite ao sistema sacádico gerar uma população separada de TRSs, as sacádicas expressas. No entanto, não há concordância sobre a influência do desaparecimento de um estímulo periférico no TRM. Em dois experimentos, testou-se os efeitos de um desaparecimento visual periférico empregado como um sinal preparatório para os TRMs a um alvo, após intervalos variáveis. Encontrou-se uma redução no TRM para intervalos curtos (200-300 ms) e longos (1300-2000 ms) após o desaparecimento periférico. A distribuição dos TRMs deslocou-se para latências curtas, formando por vezes populações separadas. Visto que os TRMs obtidos em intervalos longos foram afetados pela introdução de sessões capciosas, enquanto que os TRMs em intervalos curtos não o foram, propõe-se que dois mecanismos diferentes estão envolvidos no decréscimo dos TRMs: alerta e expectativa temporal. Nossos dados sustentam a hipótese de que o componente temporal envolvido com os estágios preparatórios das respostas motoras podem ser compartilhados pelos movimentos sacádicos e pelas respostas de apertar botões, permitindo a redução das latências motoras após o desaparecimento visual, dentro do paradigma do intervalo. Nossos dados corroboram o modelo de três componentes do efeito de intervalo. Em nosso ponto de vista, a questão da existência ou não do efeito de intervalo para respostas manuais é essencialmente conceitual.

Facilitatory effects of an auditory warning stimulus in a visual location identification task and a visual shape identification task

The occurrence of a weak auditory warning stimulus increases the speed of the response to a subsequent visual target stimulus that must be identified. This facilitatory effect has been attributed to the temporal expectancy automatically induced by the warning stimulus. It has not been determined whether this results from a modulation of the stimulus identification process, the response selection process or both. The present study examined these possibilities. A group of 12 young adults performed a reaction time location identification task and another group of 12 young adults performed a reaction time shape identification task. A visual target stimulus was presented 1850 to 2350 ms plus a fixed interval (50, 100, 200, 400, 800, or 1600 ms, depending on the block) after the appearance of a fixation point, on its left or right side, above or below a virtual horizontal line passing through it. In half of the trials, a weak auditory warning stimulus (S1) appeared 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, or 1600 ms (according to the block) before the target stimulus (S2). Twelve trials were run for each condition. The S1 produced a facilitatory effect for the 200, 400, 800, and 1600 ms stimulus onset asynchronies (SOA) in the case of the side stimulus-response (S-R) corresponding condition, and for the 100 and 400 ms SOA in the case of the side S-R non-corresponding condition. Since these two conditions differ mainly by their response selection requirements, it is reasonable to conclude that automatic temporal expectancy influences the response selection process.

Effects of visual and auditory stimuli in a choice reaction time task

The effect produced by a warning stimulus(i) (WS) in reaction time (RT) tasks is commonly attributed to a facilitation of sensorimotor mechanisms by alertness. Recently, evidence was presented that this effect is also related to a proactive inhibition of motor control mechanisms. This inhibition would hinder responding to the WS instead of the target stimulus (TS). Some studies have shown that auditory WS produce a stronger facilitatory effect than visual WS. The present study investigated whether the former WS also produces a stronger inhibitory effect than the latter WS. In one session, the RTs to a visual target in two groups of volunteers were evaluated. In a second session, subjects reacted to the visual target both with (50% of the trials) and without (50% of the trials) a WS. During trials, when subjects received a WS, one group received a visual WS and the other group was presented with an auditory WS. In the first session, the mean RTs of the two groups did not differ significantly. In the second session, the mean RT of the two groups in the presence of the WS was shorter than in their absence. The mean RT in the absence of the auditory WS was significantly longer than the mean RT in the absence of the visual WS. Mean RTs did not differ significantly between the present conditions of the visual and auditory WS. The longer RTs of the auditory WS group as opposed to the visual WS group in the WS-absent trials suggest that auditory WS exert a stronger inhibitory influence on responsivity than visual WS.

Effects of alcohol consumption on mortality in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Moderate alcohol intake has been associated with increased life expectancy due to reduced mortality from cardiovascular disease. We prospectively examined the effects of alcohol consumption on mortality in Type 2 diabetic patients in Switzerland.

Brain systems underlying encounter expectancy bias in spider phobia.

Spider-phobic individuals are characterized by exaggerated expectancies to be faced with spiders (so-called encounter expectancy bias). Whereas phobic responses have been linked to brain systems mediating fear, little is known about how the recruitment of these systems relates to exaggerated expectancies of threat. We used fMRI to examine spider-phobic and control participants while they imagined visiting different locations in a forest after having received background information about the likelihood of encountering different animals (spiders, snakes, and birds) at these locations. Critically, imagined encounter expectancies modulated brain responses differently in phobics as compared with controls. Phobics displayed stronger negative modulation of activity in the lateral prefrontal cortex, precuneus, and visual cortex by encounter expectancies for spiders, relative to snakes or birds (within-participants analysis); these effects were not seen in controls. Between-participants correlation analyses within the phobic group further corroborated the hypothesis that these phobia-specific modulations may underlie irrationality in encounter expectancies (deviations of encounter expectancies from objective background information) in spider phobia; the greater the negative modulation a phobic participant displayed in the lateral prefrontal cortex, precuneus, and visual cortex, the stronger was her bias in encounter expectancies for spiders. Interestingly, irrationality in expectancies reflected in frontal areas relied on right rather than left hemispheric deactivations. Our data accord with the idea that expectancy biases in spider phobia may reflect deficiencies in cognitive control and contextual integration that are mediated by right frontal and parietal areas.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.

Demográfiai hatások és implicit hozamok kapcsolata a nyugdíjrendszerekben = The relationship of demographic effects and implicit returns in pension systems

E tanulmány központi témája a nyugdíjrendszerek implicit hozama. Az együtt élő nemzedékek figyelembevételével felépülő nyugdíjmodellekben kétféle implicit hozamot különböztetünk meg. A hosszmetszeti implicit hozamot valamely adott nemzedékhez tartozó, különböző években esedékes pénzáramlások alapján, a keresztmetszeti implicit hozamot pedig több, különböző nemzedék adott évben jellemző pénzáramlásai alapján számíthatjuk ki. A hosszmetszeti és keresztmetszeti implicit hozamok értékeit és a közük lévő összefüggéseket a tőkefedezeti, a névleges egyéni számlás és a hagyományos felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjrendszerek egyszerű elméleti modelljeiben hasonlítjuk össze. A számításokhoz használt modellkeret fontos eleme a várható élettartam figyelembevétele. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy a maximális és a várható élettartam eltérésekor a hosszmetszeti és a keresztmetszeti implicit hozamok közötti összefüggések még egyszerű elméleti modellben is meglehetősen összetettek lehetnek. ____ The focus of this study is on the implicit returns of pension systems. Two types are analysed using an overlapping generations model: the calculation of longitudinal\" return is based on cash flows in different years belonging to a given generation, while cross-section\" implicit return is calculated in a given year with cash flows of multiple generations. Values and relationships of longitudinal and cross-section implicit returns are compared in simple theoretical models of fully funded\", notional defined-contribution\" and traditional pay-as-you-go\" pension systems. An important element of the theoretical model is the inclusion of an assumption about life expectancy. Model results point to the complexity of the relation between longitudinal and cross-section implicit returns, if expected and maximum life expectancy differ. The study maps and introduces these complex relationships.

Effects of academic integration on the persistence and achievement of under-prepared college students

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the effect of academic integration, defined in terms of instructor/student contact, on the persistence of under-prepared college students and the achievement of those who persist. The overall design of this study compared instructor-initiated contact with conventional contact. The dependent variables were persistence, achievement, motivation and anxiety. Information was collected by administering the College-Level Mathematics Test (CLM), the Perceived Affective Contact Questionnaire (PAC), the expectancy and anxiety components of the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ), a departmental final examination, and by accessing university records. The sample consisted of 130 college algebra students at a large, public university with a Hispanic majority. The main analyses consisted of a 2 x 2 x 2 ANOVA (treatment by ethnicity by gender) to test for differences in achievement, t-tests to compare motivation, anxiety and perceived affective contact scores for the two groups, Chi-square tests to assess differences in persistence, and Pearson Product-Moment Correlation to determine the relationship between pretest scores and achievement variables. Results indicated that neither instructor-initiated contact, gender nor ethnicity is related to persistence, motivation or anxiety. A significant disordinal interaction of treatment and ethnicity was observed, with Hispanic experimental students scoring significantly higher on a test of algebra achievement than Hispanic control students. ^ Academic integration, defined in terms of instructor/student contact, has a positive influence on the achievement of Hispanic students. This may imply their positive responsiveness to the relational aspect of contact due to traditional cultural values of interdependence, acquiescence to authority and physical closeness. Such interactive feedback is a means by which students with these values are recognized as members of the university academic community, prompting increased academic effort. Training in contact initiation to promote academic integration is implied, by the results of this study, for instructors dealing with first year students, especially instructors at institutions accommodating instructional methods to the needs of diverse groups. ^

Effects of academic integration on the persistence and achievement of under-prepared college students

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the effect of academic integration, defined in terms of instructor/student contact, on the persistence of under-prepared college students and the achievement of those who persist. The overall design of this study compared instructor-initiated contact with conventional contact. The dependent variables were persistence, achievement, motivation and anxiety. Information was collected by administering the College-Level Mathematics Test (CLM), the Perceived Affective Contact Questionnaire (PAC), the expectancy and anxiety components of the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ), a departmental final examination, and by accessing university records. The sample consisted of 130 college algebra students at a large, public university with a Hispanic majority. The main analyses consisted of a 2x2x2 ANOVA (treatment by ethnicity by gender) to test for differences in achievement, t-tests to compare motivation, anxiety and perceived affective contact scores for the two groups, Chi-square tests to assess differences in persistence, and Pearson Product-Moment Correlation to determine the relationship between pretest scores and achievement variables. Results indicated that neither instructor-initiated contact, gender nor ethnicity is related to persistence, motivation or anxiety. A significant disordinal interaction of treatment and ethnicity was observed, with Hispanic experimental students scoring significantly higher on a test of algebra achievement than Hispanic control students. Academic integration, defined in terms of instructor/student contact, has a positive influence on the achievement of Hispanic students. This may imply their positive responsiveness to the relational aspect of contact due to traditional cultural values of interdependence, acquiescence to authority and physical closeness. Such interactive feedback is a means by which students with these values are recognized as members of the university academic community, prompting increased academic effort. Training in contact initiation to promote academic integration is implied, by the results of this study, for instructors dealing with first year students, especially instructors at institutions accommodating instructional methods to the needs of diverse groups.