Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Coordinated Interdependent Protein Circuitry Stabilizes the Kinetochore Ensemble to Protect CENP-A in the Human Pathogenic Yeast Candida albicans

Unlike most eukaryotes, a kinetochore is fully assembled early in the cell cycle in budding yeasts Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Candida albicans. These kinetochores are clustered together throughout the cell cycle. Kinetochore assembly on point centromeres of S. cerevisiae is considered to be a step-wise process that initiates with binding of inner kinetochore proteins on specific centromere DNA sequence motifs. In contrast, kinetochore formation in C. albicans, that carries regional centromeres of 3-5 kb long, has been shown to be a sequence independent but an epigenetically regulated event. In this study, we investigated the process of kinetochore assembly/disassembly in C. albicans. Localization dependence of various kinetochore proteins studied by confocal microscopy and chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) assays revealed that assembly of a kinetochore is a highly coordinated and interdependent event. Partial depletion of an essential kinetochore protein affects integrity of the kinetochore cluster. Further protein depletion results in complete collapse of the kinetochore architecture. In addition, GFP-tagged kinetochore proteins confirmed similar time-dependent disintegration upon gradual depletion of an outer kinetochore protein (Dam1). The loss of integrity of a kinetochore formed on centromeric chromatin was demonstrated by reduced binding of CENP-A and CENP-C at the centromeres. Most strikingly, Western blot analysis revealed that gradual depletion of any of these essential kinetochore proteins results in concomitant reduction in cellular protein levels of CENP-A. We further demonstrated that centromere bound CENP-A is protected from the proteosomal mediated degradation. Based on these results, we propose that a coordinated interdependent circuitry of several evolutionarily conserved essential kinetochore proteins ensures integrity of a kinetochore formed on the foundation of CENP-A containing centromeric chromatin.

Deformation field in indentation of a granular ensemble

An experimental study has been made of the flow field in indentation of a model granular material. A granular ensemble composed of spherical sand particles with average size of 0.4 mm is indented with a flat ended punch under plane-strain conditions. The region around the indenter is imaged in situ using a high-speed charge-coupled device (CCD) imaging system. By applying a hybrid image analysis technique to image sequences of the indentation, flow parameters such as velocity, velocity gradient, and strain rate are measured at high resolution. The measurements have enabled characterization of the main features of the flow such as dead material zones, velocity jumps, localization of deformation, and regions of highly rotational flow resembling vortices. Implications for validation of theoretical analyses and applications are discussed.

Data assimilation using ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean

Study of Oceans dynamics and forecast is crucial as it influences the regional climate and other marine activities. Forecasting oceanographic states like sea surface currents, Sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth at different time scales is extremely important for these activities. These forecasts are generated by various ocean general circulation models (OGCM). One such model is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Though ROMS can simulate several features of ocean, it cannot reproduce the thermocline of the ocean properly. Solution to this problem is to incorporates data assimilation (DA) in the model. DA system using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) has been developed for ROMS model to improve the accuracy of the model forecast. To assimilate data temperature and salinity from ARGO data has been used as observation. Assimilated temperature and salinity without localization shows oscillations compared to the model run without assimilation for India Ocean. Same was also found for u and v-velocity fields. With localization we found that the state variables are diverging within the localization scale.

Photoluminescence decay rate engineering of CdSe quantum dots in ensemble arrays embedded with gold nano-antennae

We discuss experimental results on the ability to significantly tune the photoluminescence decay rates of CdSe quantum dots embedded in an ordered template, using lightly doped small gold nanoparticles (nano-antennae), of relatively low optical efficiency. We observe both enhancement and quenching of photoluminescence intensity of the quantum dots varying monotonically with increasing volume fraction of added gold nanoparticles, with respect to undoped quantum dot arrays. However, the corresponding variation in lifetime of photoluminescence spectra decay shows a hitherto unobserved, non-monotonic variation with gold nanoparticle doping. We also demonstrate that Purcell effect is quite effective for the larger (5 nm) gold nano-antenna leading to more than four times enhanced radiative rate at spectral resonance, for largest doping and about 1.75 times enhancement for off-resonance. Significantly for spectral off-resonance samples, we could simultaneously engineer reduction of non-radiative decay rate along with increase of radiative decay rate. Non-radiative decay dominates the system for the smaller (2 nm) gold nano-antenna setting the limit on how small these plasmonic nano-antennae could be to be effective in engineering significant enhancement in radiative decay rate and, hence, the overall quantum efficiency of quantum dot based hybrid photonic assemblies.

The Ginibre Ensemble and Gaussian Analytic Functions

We show that as n changes, the characteristic polynomial of the n x n random matrix with i.i.d. complex Gaussian entries can be described recursively through a process analogous to Polya's urn scheme. As a result, we get a random analytic function in the limit, which is given by a mixture of Gaussian analytic functions. This suggests another reason why the zeros of Gaussian analytic functions and the Ginibre ensemble exhibit similar local repulsion, but different global behavior. Our approach gives new explicit formulas for the limiting analytic function.

A Gibbs-ensemble based technique for Monte Carlo simulation of electric double layer capacitors (EDLC) at constant voltage

Current methods for molecular simulations of Electric Double Layer Capacitors (EDLC) have both the electrodes and the electrolyte region in a single simulation box. This necessitates simulation of the electrode-electrolyte region interface. Typical capacitors have macroscopic dimensions where the fraction of the molecules at the electrode-electrolyte region interface is very low. Hence, large systems sizes are needed to minimize the electrode-electrolyte region interfacial effects. To overcome these problems, a new technique based on the Gibbs Ensemble is proposed for simulation of an EDLC. In the proposed technique, each electrode is simulated in a separate simulation box. Application of periodic boundary conditions eliminates the interfacial effects. This in addition to the use of constant voltage ensemble allows for a more convenient comparison of simulation results with experimental measurements on typical EDLCs. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

Folding of Protein L with Implications for Collapse in the Denatured State Ensemble

A fundamental question in protein folding is whether the coil to globule collapse transition occurs during the initial stages of folding (burst phase) or simultaneously with the protein folding transition. Single molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments disagree on whether Protein L collapse transition occurs during the burst phase of folding. We study Protein L folding using a coarse-grained model and molecular dynamics simulations. The collapse transition in Protein L is found to be concomitant with the folding transition. In the burst phase of folding, we find that FRET experiments overestimate radius of gyration, R-g, of the protein due to the application of Gaussian polymer chain end-to-end distribution to extract R-g from the FRET efficiency. FRET experiments estimate approximate to 6 angstrom decrease in R-g when the actual decrease is approximate to 3 angstrom on guanidinium chloride denaturant dilution from 7.5 to 1 M, thereby suggesting pronounced compaction in the protein dimensions in the burst phase. The approximate to 3 angstrom decrease is close to the statistical uncertainties of the R-g data measured from SAXS experiments, which suggest no compaction, leading to a disagreement with the FRET experiments. The transition-state ensemble (TSE) structures in Protein L folding are globular and extensive in agreement with the Psi-analysis experiments. The results support the hypothesis that the TSE of single domain proteins depends on protein topology and is not stabilized by local interactions alone.

An Ensemble Kushner-Stratonovich-Poisson Filter for Recursive Estimation in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

We propose a Monte Carlo filter for recursive estimation of diffusive processes that modulate the instantaneous rates of Poisson measurements. A key aspect is the additive update, through a gain-like correction term, empirically approximated from the innovation integral in the time-discretized Kushner-Stratonovich equation. The additive filter-update scheme eliminates the problem of particle collapse encountered in many conventional particle filters. Through a few numerical demonstrations, the versatility of the proposed filter is brought forth.

The ensemble statistics of the band-averaged energy of a random system

This paper is concerned with the response statistics of a dynamic system that has random properties. The frequency-band-averaged energy of the system is considered, and a closed form expression is derived for the relative variance of this quantity. The expression depends upon three parameters: the modal overlap factor m, a bandwidth parameter B, and a parameter α that defines the nature of the loading (for example single point forcing or rain-on-the-roof loading). The result is applicable to any single structural component or acoustic volume, and a comparison is made here with simulation results for a mass loaded plate. Good agreement is found between the simulations and the theory. © 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The ensemble statistics of the energy of a random system subjected to harmonic excitation

This paper is concerned with the ensemble statistics of the response to harmonic excitation of a single dynamic system such as a plate or an acoustic volume. Random point process theory is employed, and various statistical assumptions regarding the system natural frequencies are compared, namely: (i) Poisson natural frequency spacings, (ii) statistically independent Rayleigh natural frequency spacings, and (iii) natural frequency spacings conforming to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE). The GOE is found to be the most realistic assumption, and simple formulae are derived for the variance of the energy of the system under either point loading or rain-on-the-roof excitation. The theoretical results are compared favourably with numerical simulations and experimental data for the case of a mass loaded plate. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contributions to Ensemble Classifiers with Image Analysis Applications

134 p.