893 resultados para Endogenous switching regression
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This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.
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The current study applies a two-state switching regression model to examine the behavior of a hypothetical portfolio of ten socially responsible (SRI) equity mutual funds during the expansion and contraction phases of US business cycles between April 1991 and June 2009, based on the Carhart four-factor model, using monthly data. The model identified a business cycle effect on the performance of SRI equity mutual funds. Fund returns were less volatile during expansion/peaks than during contraction/troughs, as indicated by the standard deviation of returns. During contraction/troughs, fund excess returns were explained by the differential in returns between small and large companies, the difference between the returns on stocks trading at high and low Book-to-Market Value, the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. During contraction/troughs, smaller companies offered higher returns than larger companies (ci = 0.26, p = 0.01), undervalued stocks out-performed high growth stocks (h i = 0.39, p <0.0001), and funds with growth objectives out-performed funds with other objectives (oi = 0.01, p = 0.02). The hypothetical SRI portfolio was less risky than the market (bi = 0.74, p <0.0001). During expansion/peaks, fund excess returns were explained by the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. Funds with other objectives, such as balanced funds and income funds out-performed funds with growth objectives (oi = −0.01, p = 0.03). The hypothetical SRI portfolio exhibited similar risk as the market (bi = 0.93, p <0.0001). The SRI investor adds a third criterion to the risk and return trade-off of traditional portfolio theory. This constraint is social performance. The research suggests that managers of SRI equity mutual funds may diminish value by using social and ethical criteria to select stocks, but add value by superior stock selection. The result is that the performance of SRI mutual funds is very similar to that of the market. There was no difference in the value added among secular SRI, religious SRI, and vice screens.
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This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.
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Consider a nonparametric regression model Y=mu*(X) + e, where the explanatory variables X are endogenous and e satisfies the conditional moment restriction E[e|W]=0 w.p.1 for instrumental variables W. It is well known that in these models the structural parameter mu* is 'ill-posed' in the sense that the function mapping the data to mu* is not continuous. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bounds for estimating linear functionals E[p(X)mu*(X)] and int_{supp(X)}p(x)mu*(x)dx, where p is a known weight function and supp(X) the support of X, without assuming mu* to be well-posed or even identified.
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We have recently shown that VEGF functions as a survival factor for newly formed vessels during developmental neovascularization, but is not required for maintenance of mature vessels. Reasoning that expanding tumors contain a significant fraction of newly formed and remodeling vessels, we examined whether abrupt withdrawal of VEGF will result in regression of preformed tumor vessels. Using a tetracycline-regulated VEGF expression system in xenografted C6 glioma cells, we showed that shutting off VEGF production leads to detachment of endothelial cells from the walls of preformed vessels and their subsequent death by apoptosis. Vascular collapse then leads to hemorrhages and extensive tumor necrosis. These results suggest that enforced withdrawal of vascular survival factors can be applied to target preformed tumor vasculature in established tumors. The system was also used to examine phenotypes resulting from over-expression of VEGF. When expression of the transfected VEGF cDNA was continuously “on,” tumors became hyper-vascularized with abnormally large vessels, presumably arising from excessive fusions. Tumors were significantly less necrotic, suggesting that necrosis in these tumors is the result of insufficient angiogenesis.
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BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.
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BACKGROUND Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is common in kidney transplant (KT) recipients. LVH is associated with a worse outcome, though m-TOR therapy may help to revert this complication. We therefore conducted a longitudinal study to assess morphological and functional echocardiographic changes after conversion from CNI to m-TOR inhibitor drugs in nondiabetic KT patients who had previously received RAS blockers during the follow-up. METHODS We undertook a 1-year nonrandomized controlled study in 30 non-diabetic KT patients who were converted from calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) to m-TOR therapy. A control group received immunosuppressive therapy based on CNIs. Two echocardiograms were done during the follow-up. RESULTS Nineteen patients were switched to SRL and 11 to EVL. The m-TOR group showed a significant reduction in LVMi after 1 year (from 62 ± 22 to 55 ± 20 g/m2.7; P=0.003, paired t-test). A higher proportion of patients showing LVMi reduction was observed in the m-TOR group (53.3 versus 29.3%, P=0.048) at the study end. In addition, only 56% of the m-TOR patients had LVH at the study end compared to 77% of the control group (P=0.047). A significant change from baseline in deceleration time in early diastole was observed in the m-TOR group compared with the control group (P=0.019). CONCLUSIONS Switching from CNI to m-TOR therapy in non-diabetic KT patients may regress LVH, independently of blood pressure changes and follow-up time. This suggests a direct non-hemodynamic effect of m-TOR drugs on cardiac mass.
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In a cohort study of 182 consecutive patients with active endogenous Cushing's syndrome, the only predictor of fracture occurrence after adjustment for age, gender bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS) was 24-h urinary free cortisol (24hUFC) levels with a threshold of 1472 nmol/24 h (odds ratio, 3.00 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.52-5.92); p = 0.002). INTRODUCTION: The aim was to estimate the risk factors for fracture in subjects with endogenous Cushing's syndrome (CS) and to evaluate the value of the TBS in these patients. METHODS: All enrolled patients with CS (n = 182) were interviewed in relation to low-traumatic fractures and underwent lateral X-ray imaging from T4 to L5. BMD measurements were performed using a DXA Prodigy device (GEHC Lunar, Madison, Wisconsin, USA). The TBS was derived retrospectively from existing BMD scans, blinded to clinical outcome, using TBS iNsight software v2.1 (Medimaps, Merignac, France). Urinary free cortisol (24hUFC) was measured by immunochemiluminescence assay (reference range, 60-413 nmol/24 h). RESULTS: Among enrolled patients with CS (149 females; 33 males; mean age, 37.8 years (95 % confidence interval, 34.2-39.1); 24hUFC, 2370 nmol/24 h (2087-2632), fractures were confirmed in 81 (44.5 %) patients, with 70 suffering from vertebral fractures, which were multiple in 53 cases; 24 patients reported non-vertebral fractures. The mean spine TBS was 1.207 (1.187-1.228), and TBS Z-score was -1.86 (-2.07 to -1.65); area under the curve (AUC) was used to predict fracture (mean spine TBS) = 0.548 (95 % CI, 0.454-0.641)). In the final regression model, the only predictor of fracture occurrence was 24hUFC levels (p = 0.001), with an increase of 1.041 (95 % CI, 1.019-1.063), calculated for every 100 nmol/24-h cortisol elevation (AUC (24hUFC) = 0.705 (95 % CI, 0.629-0.782)). CONCLUSIONS: Young patients with CS have a low TBS. However, the only predictor of low traumatic fracture is the severity of the disease itself, indicated by high 24hUFC levels.
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Several studies have suggested a bilingual advantage in executive functions, presumably due to bilinguals' massive practice with language switching that requires executive resources, but the results are still somewhat controversial. Previous studies are also plagued by the inherent limitations of a natural groups design where the participant groups are bound to differ in many ways in addition to the variable used to classify them. In an attempt to introduce a complementary analysis approach, we employed multiple regression to study whether the performance of 30- to 75-year-old FinnishSwedish bilinguals (N = 38) on tasks measuring different executive functions (inhibition, updating, and set shifting) could be predicted by the frequency of language switches in everyday life (as measured by a language switching questionnaire), L2 age of acquisition, or by the self-estimated degree of use of both languages in everyday life. Most consistent effects were found for the set shifting task where a higher rate of everyday language switches was related to a smaller mixing cost in errors. Mixing cost is thought to reflect top-down management of competing task sets, thus resembling the bilingual situation where decisions of which language to use has to be made in each conversation. These findings provide additional support to the idea that some executive functions in bilinguals are affected by a lifelong experience in language switching and, perhaps even more importantly, suggest a complementary approach to the study of this issue.
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BACKGROUND: With many atypical antipsychotics now available in the market, it has become a common clinical practice to switch between atypical agents as a means of achieving the best clinical outcomes. This study aimed to examine the impact of switching from olanzapine to risperidone and vice versa on clinical status and tolerability outcomes in outpatients with schizophrenia in a naturalistic setting. METHODS: W-SOHO was a 3-year observational study that involved over 17,000 outpatients with schizophrenia from 37 countries worldwide. The present post hoc study focused on the subgroup of patients who started taking olanzapine at baseline and subsequently made the first switch to risperidone (n=162) and vice versa (n=136). Clinical status was assessed at the visit when the first switch was made (i.e. before switching) and after switching. Logistic regression models examined the impact of medication switch on tolerability outcomes, and linear regression models assessed the association between medication switch and change in the Clinical Global Impression-Schizophrenia (CGI-SCH) overall score or change in weight. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to analyze the time to medication switch as well as time to relapse (symptom worsening as assessed by the CGI-SCH scale or hospitalization). RESULTS: 48% and 39% of patients switching to olanzapine and risperidone, respectively, remained on the medication without further switches (p=0.019). Patients switching to olanzapine were significantly less likely to experience relapse (hazard ratio: 3.43, 95% CI: 1.43, 8.26), extrapyramidal symptoms (odds ratio [OR]: 4.02, 95% CI: 1.49, 10.89) and amenorrhea/galactorrhea (OR: 8.99, 95% CI: 2.30, 35.13). No significant difference in weight change was, however, found between the two groups. While the CGI-SCH overall score improved in both groups after switching, there was a significantly greater change in those who switched to olanzapine (difference of 0.29 points, p=0.013). CONCLUSION: Our study showed that patients who switched from risperidone to olanzapine were likely to experience a more favorable treatment course than those who switched from olanzapine to risperidone. Given the nature of observational study design and small sample size, additional studies are warranted.
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Changes in glutathione levels were determined in tissues of 11- to 12-week-old Swiss albino mice at different stages of Dalton's lymphoma tumor growth and following cisplatin (8 mg/kg body weight, ip) treatment for 24-96 h, keeping 4-5 animals in each experimental group. Glutathione levels increased in spleen of tumor-bearing compared to normal mice (9.95 ± 0.14 vs 7.86 ± 1.64 µmol/g wet weight, P<=0.05) but decreased in blood (0.64 ± 0.10 vs 0.85 ± 0.09 mg/ml) and testes (9.28 ± 0.15 vs 10.16 ± 0.28 µmol/g wet weight, P<=0.05). Dalton's lymphoma cells showed an increase in glutathione concentration (4.43 ± 0.26 µmol/g wet weight) as compared to splenocytes, their normal counterpart (3.62 ± 0.41 µmol/g wet weight). With the progression of tumor in mice, glutathione levels decreased significantly in testes (~10%) and bone marrow cells (~13%) while they increased in Dalton's lymphoma cells (28-46%) and spleen (15-27%). Glutathione levels in kidney, Dalton's lymphoma cells and bone marrow cells (8.50 ± 1.22, 4.43 ± 0.26 and 3.28 ± 0.17 µmol/g wet weight, respectively) decreased significantly (6.04 ± 0.42, 3.51 ± 0.32 and 2.17 ± 0.14 µmol/g wet weight, P<=0.05) after in vivo cisplatin treatment for 24 h. Along with a decrease in glutathione level, the glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity also decreased by 60% in tumor cells after cisplatin treatment. The elevated drug uptake by the tumor cells under the conditions of reduced glutathione concentration and GST activity after treatment could be an important contributory factor to cisplatin's anticancer activity leading to tumor regression. Furthermore, lower doses of cisplatin in combination with buthionine sulfoximine (an inhibitor of glutathione synthesis) may be useful in cancer chemotherapy with decreased toxicity in the host.
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The focus of the paper is the nonparametric estimation of an instrumental regression function P defined by conditional moment restrictions stemming from a structural econometric model : E[Y-P(Z)|W]=0 and involving endogenous variables Y and Z and instruments W. The function P is the solution of an ill-posed inverse problem and we propose an estimation procedure based on Tikhonov regularization. The paper analyses identification and overidentification of this model and presents asymptotic properties of the estimated nonparametric instrumental regression function.
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This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).
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This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.