Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

An approach for wind power integration using demand side resources

Renewable energy resources, especially wind power, are expected to provide a considerable portion of the world energy requirements in the near future. Large-scale wind power penetration impacts the electricity industry in many aspects and raises a number of technical challenges for the electricity network. A day-ahead network-constrained market clearing formulation is proposed which considers demand side resources. The proposed approach can provide flexible load profile and reduce the need for ramp up/down services by the conventional generators. This method can potentially facilitate a large penetration of wind power by shifting the wind power generation from the off-peak periods to the high-peak hours. The validity of the proposed approach has been verified using the IEEE 30 bus and 57 bus test systems.

Smart grid

All over the world, electrical power systems are encountering radical change stimulated by the urgent need to decarbonize electricity supply, to swap aging resources and to make effective application of swiftly evolving information and communication technologies (ICTs). All of these goals converge toward one direction; ‘Smart Grid.’ The Smart Grid can be described as the transparent, seamless, and instantaneous two-way delivery of energy information, enabling the electricity industry to better manage energy delivery and transmission and empowering consumers to have more control over energy decisions. Basically, the vision of Smart Grid is to provide much better visibility to lower-voltage networks as well as to permit the involvement of consumers in the function of the power system, mostly through smart meters and Smart Homes. A Smart Grid incorporates the features of advanced ICTs to convey real-time information and facilitate the almost instantaneous stability of supply and demand on the electrical grid. The operational data collected by Smart Grid and its sub-systems will allow system operators to quickly recognize the best line of attack to protect against attacks, susceptibility, and so on, sourced by a variety of incidents. However, Smart Grid initially depends upon knowing and researching key performance components and developing the proper education program to equip current and future workforce with the knowledge and skills for exploitation of this greatly advanced system. The aim of this chapter is to provide a basic discussion of the Smart Grid concept, evolution and components of Smart Grid, environmental impacts of Smart Grid and then in some detail, to describe the technologies that are required for its realization. Even though the Smart Grid concept is not yet fully defined, the chapter will be helpful in describing the key enabling technologies and thus allowing the reader to play a part in the debate over the future of the Smart Grid. The chapter concludes with the experimental description and results of developing a hybrid prediction method for solar power which is applicable to successfully implement the ‘Smart Grid.’

O debate sobre reformas e regulação e o caso da ANEEL

Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar em que medida a flexibilização da gestão de recursos humanos na agência reguladora do setor elétrico brasileiro é consistente com a independência regulatória, entendida como autonomia de gestão nas dimensões financeira, técnica e de recursos humanos. A independência das agências reguladoras constitui mecanismo contra os efeitos negativos das ações de interesses privados, ou rent-seekers, e o uso político inadequado, gerador de ineficiências econômicas. O trabalho descreve o processo de constituição da diretoria colegiada, o regime e o quadro de pessoal vigente, e analisa o processo de reestruturação do setor elétrico brasileiro, concluindo que a contratação temporária e a tentativa de implementar regime jurídico diferenciado repete os equívocos e disfunções que caracterizaram a burocracia pública desde os anos trinta.

Entry and externality : hydroelectric generators in Brazil

This work analyzes the entry problem in the hydroelectric generation industry. The operation of a generator upstream regularizes the river flow for generators located downstream on the same river, increasing the production capacity of the latter. This positive externality increases the attractiveness of the locations downstream whenever a generator decides to enter upstream. Therefore, the entry decision of a generator in a given location may affect all entry decisions in potential locations for plants downstream. I first model the problem of generators located in cascade on the same river to show the positive effect of the externality. Next, I develop a method to estimate an entry model specific to the hydro generation industry which takes into account the externality of the entry decisions. Finally, I use a data set on investment decisions of Brazilian hydro-generators to estimate the model. The results show a positive incentive to locate downstream from existing plants and from locations where entry is likely to occur. An interesting by-product of the analysis is that the year effects’ estimates show an increase one year before the energy crisis of 2001, providing evidence that the market anticipated the crisis. It contradicts the governmental version that the crisis was due to an unexpected drought.

Alívio de sobrecargas em redes de transmissão com o auxílio de geradores distribuídos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Istmo Centroamericano: estadísticas del subsector eléctrico (datos actualizados a 2001)

Incluye Bibliografía

Da barranca do rio para a periferia dos centros urbanos: a trajetória do Movimento dos Atingidos por Barragens face às políticas do setor elétrico no Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de Preço (LMP) por Redes GRNN

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

A integração da indústria de energia elétrica na América do Sul: análise dos modelos técnicos e de regulamentação.

Os recursos energéticos naturais não estão distribuídos uniformemente pelo globo terrestre, e são raros os países que os têm na quantidade e na qualidade que necessitam para atender as suas necessidades. Ante a essa realidade, o comércio de energéticos tem sido a forma principal de acesso dos países que não os dispõem em relação as suas necessidades. Esse comércio, que muitas vezes é regido por tratados ou acordos firmados entre países ou blocos econômicos regionais, diversificou-se, traspassou fronteiras e, atualmente, tornou-se um item significativo nas pautas de exportações de vários países. A evolução desse comércio tem a favor a alternativa de integração por meio de interconexões estratégicas de redes e da constituição de mercados comuns, que viabilizam a exploração do potencial de complementariedade energética de forma mais racional. Diante desse contexto, esta dissertação apresenta um estudo exploratório que avalia o estado da arte da integração energética sul-americana e faz análises dos modelos técnicos, das regulamentações, das regulações regionais e multilaterais estabelecidas pelos blocos econômicos sul-americanos e pela Organização Mundial do Comércio. De forma complementar, o estudo verifica e apresenta os fatores que podem comprometer o avanço e a instituição de um futuro mercado comum de energia no continente, conclui pela viabilidade do prosseguimento de ações em prol da ampliação da integração da indústria de energia elétrica na América do Sul e tece recomendações. Os resultados e as recomendações deste trabalho oferecem um embasamento procedimental para a gestão e a atuação institucional dos envolvidos no processo de integração energética da indústria de energia elétrica da região sul americana.

The political shaping of energy technology:combined heat and power in Britain

There has been negligible adoption of combined heat and power (CHP) for district heating (DH) in Britain, despite continued advocacy. This thesis constructs an account of the treatment of the option, and devises a framework for explanation. Analysis of technological development and adoption, it is argued, should be similar to that of other social processes, and be subject to the same requirements and criticisms. They will, however, show features peculiar to the institutions developing and selecting technologies, their relation to different social groups, and the forms of knowledge in and about technology. Conventional approaches - organisation and interorganisation theories, and analyses of policy-making - give useful insights but have common limitations. Elements of an analytical framework situating detailed issues and outcomes in a structured historical context are derived from convergent radical critiques. Thus activity on CHP/DH is essentially shaped by the development and relations of energy sector institutions: central and local government, nationalised industries and particularly the electricity industry. Analysis of them is related to the specific character of the British state. A few CHP and DH installations were tried before 1940. During postwar reconstruction, extensive plans for several cities were abandoned or curtailed. In the 1960s and 70s, many small non-CHP DH schemes were installed on housing estates. From the mid-70s, the national potential of CHP/DH has been reappraised, with widespread support and favourable evaluations, but little practical progress. Significant CHP/DH adoption is shown to have been systematically excluded ultimately by the structure of energy provision; centralised production interests dominate and co-ordination is weak. Marginal economics and political commitment have allowed limited development in exceptional circumstances. Periods of upheaval provided greater opportunity and incentive for CHP/DH but restructuring eventually obstructed it. Explanation of these outcomes is shown to require analysis at several levels, from broad context to detailed action.

Occupant comfort, the housing industry and electricity infrastructure : understanding the synergies

Despite increasingly stringent energy performance regulations for new homes, southeast Queensland has a high and growing penetration of, and reliance on, air conditioners to provide thermal comfort to housing inhabitants. This reliance impacts on electricity infrastructure investment which is the key driving force behind rising electricity prices. This paper reports initial findings of a research project that seeks to better understand three key issues: (i) how families manage their thermal comfort in summer and how well their homes limit overheating; (ii) the extent to which the homes have been constructed according to the building approval documentation; and (iii) the impact that these issues have on urban design, especially in relation to electricity infrastructure in urban developments.

Winners and losers from industry reforms in the developing world: experiences from the electricity and mining sectors

The reform of previously state-owned and operated industries in many Less Developed Countries (LDCs) provide contrary experiences to those in the developed world, which have generally had more equitable distributional impacts. The economic reform policies proposed by the so-called 'Washington Consensus' state that privatisation provides governments with opportunities to raise revenues through the sale of under-performing and indebted state industries, thereby reducing significant fiscal burdens, and, at the same time, facilitating influxes of foreign capital, skills and technology, with the aim of improving operations and a "trickle-down" of benefits. However, experiences in many LDCs over the last 15-20 years suggest that reform has not solved the problem of chronic public-sector debt, and that poverty and socio-economic inequalities have increased during this period of 'neo-liberal' economics. This paper does not seek to challenge the policies themselves, but rather argues that the context in which reform has often taken place is of fundamental significance. The industry-centric policy advice provided by the IFIs typically causes a 'lock-in' of inequitably distributed 'efficiency gains', providing minimal, if any, benefits to impoverished groups. These arguments are made using case study analysis from the electricity and mining sectors.