Balancing Cooperation and Competition: A New in Era in U.S.-China Relations

Created as part of the 2016 Jackson School for International Studies SIS 495: Task Force.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

Las empresas energéticas y la gran estrategia estadounidense hacia Irak : una reflexión sobre el rol de Exxon Mobil y Chevron como grupos económicos y de presión (2001- 2011)

La monografía pretende explicar el rol desempeñado por Exxon Mobil y Chevron en la formulación de la Gran Estrategia del gobierno Bush hacia Irak. Especialmente, se sostiene que las dos compañías multinacionales mencionadas lograron que la intervención militar en Irak, fuera pensada como un objetivo fundamental de la política energética del gobierno Bush. Para lograr este objetivo, Chevron y Exxon aprovecharon principalmente su posición en la economía nacional estadounidense. De hecho, lograron celebrar contratos a largo plazo para la extracción del crudo y de gas en Irak. Fundamentándose en un análisis documental, estas compañías son analizadas como grupos de presión empresarial y grupos económicos, cuyos beneficios derivados de la invasión en Irak pueden encontrarse incluso durante el gobierno Obama.

From the Sea to Paris and back: On the interdependence of economic warfare, weather conditions and the submarine campaign 1916-1917

Starting of from Avner Offer’s comment that the First World War was not only a war of steel and gold, but also of bread and potatoes (1989: 1) and my own research on British as well as Australian preparations for economic warfare and based on sources from the entente as well as the central powers but also from the United States, Canada and Australia, may presentation will focus on the interdependence of the measures taken by entente as well as central power authorities in the second half of 1916. Already a year before both sides had become aware that this war would not only be decided on the battlefield, but that the issues of primary as well as secondary resources would be decisive. Accordingly measures that could strike the enemy in this field were discussed and put into place more and more and this at time, when weather conditions caused a reduction of harvest all over Europe, Northern America and Argentina.

Interdependence in Southern Africa: an examination of the relations between Zimbabwe and South Africa

Most research on southern Africa focuses on the total dependency of the region's states--Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, zambia and Zimbabwe--upon the dominant power, South Africa. This thesis examines the relationship between South Africa and Zimbabwe and argues that these two states are more interdependent than dependency scholars would acknowledge. Although a study of the historical period reveals that dependency theory, as defined by Raul Prebisch, Andre Gunder Frank and A. Valenzuela, is helpful for understanding the development of relations between the two states, it is unable to account for many of the characteristics of the relationship which are found in the contemporary context, especially since 1980. An examination of various economic areas of interaction, including investment, trade and transportation, as well as the political realm, indicates that each state exhibits a degree of dependence upon the other. Thus, it is possible to characterize the relationship as one of "mutual dependence," or interdependence as defined by Robert Keohane and Joseph S. Nye. Interdependence is further examined through the concepts of sensitivity and vulnerability. Sensitivity signifies the ability of a state to respond effectively to policy changes made by another state wi thin a given area of interaction without incurring large costs, while vulnerability denotes that an actor is unable to respond, or only at great cost. By applying these concepts to the relationship between Zimbabwe and South Africa, it is determined that although South Africa tends to be sensitive while Zimbabwe is generally vulnerable, the degrees to which these two states are sensi ti ve and vulnerable varies over time and issue area. As the changes wi thin South Africa start to affect relations wi th the rest of southern Africa, it wi 11 be necessary to understand the interaction between the states from an interdependency perspective if cooperation within the region wi 11 be successful. By appl ying an interdependence framework, this study aims at contributing to the understanding of relations among the countries of southern Africa in general, and between South Africa and Zimbabwe in particular.

Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Long run economic development in Latin America in a comparative perspective: proximate and ultimate causes

Includes bibliography

Horizontal and Vertical Interdependence in the Multinational Subsidiary Networks. ACES Working Paper No. 7, July 2008

Existing theoretical studies have predicted that a multinational firm's location choices are interdependent across countries. Little has, however, been done to test the hypothesis at individual subsidiary level. This paper uses a detailed French multinational subsidiary dataset and estimates how a firm's decision to invest in a foreign country is not only conditional on the characteristics of that country but also the firm's existing subsidiary network Using a structural spatial econometric model, the paper finds evidence of both horizontal and vertical interdependence in multinationals' location decisions. The results indicate that while multinational firms have little incentive to duplicate their production in countries with low bilateral trade costs, they are motivated to build a vertical subsidiary network in these countries ~ especially when the countries have complementary comparative advantages.

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Market Risk Capital Requirements and Credit Supply Interdependence

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The management of interdependence and the sharing of vision by micro-finance agencies for new and emerging SMEs

The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise a theoretical model that clarifies the variations in both processes for sharing vision and interdependence of the lender and the SME owner in micro-finance. Processes for sharing vision and interdependence are possible predictors of the effective tacit and explicit knowledge generation/utilization of a micro-finance agency – SME owner relationship. For new and emerging SMEs the micro-finance agency can provide a critical role in their development. Micro-finance agencies can provide a mechanism in economic development that enables SMEs to have greater speed to markets. The focus of this paper is on the relationship between the micro-finance lending officer and the SME owner. Specifically, the model developed in this paper informs understanding the nature of knowledge generation/utilization between micro-finance agencies and SMEs. Effective generation/utilization facilitates the assessment of the risk for investment. The model clarifies the variations between interdependence and the development of processes for sharing of vision. When you have high interdependence (characterised by good cooperation) and effective processes for sharing of vision, an environment of effective knowledge generation/utilization is likely to be created between the micro-finance agency and the SME owner. The model proposes that the effective management of both tacit and explicit knowledge between the micro-finance agency and SMEs supports them to reach their markets. Implications of this research for SMEs and micro-finance agencies include the increase of knowledge and understanding of SME processes.