The numerical simulation of noncharring thermal degradation and its application to the prediction of compartment fire development

In this paper we present some work concerned with the development and testing of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modeling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid fuels. The CFD model is coupled with a simple thermal pyrolysis model for combustible solid noncharring fuels, a six-flux radiation model and an eddy-dissipation model for gaseous combustion. The model is then used to simulate a series of small-scale room fire experiments in which the target solid fuel is polymethylmethacrylate. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5/12. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" type behavior within the fire compartment.

Prediction of ionic liquid properties. I. Volumetric properties as a function of temperature at 0.1 MPa

The prediction of molar volumes and densities of several ionic liquids has been achieved using a group contribution model as a function of temperature between (273 and 423) K at atmospheric pressure. It was observed that the calculation of molar volumes or densities could be performed using the "ideal" behavior of the molar volumes of mixtures of ionic liquids. This model is based on the observations of Canongia Lopes et al. (J. Phys. Chem. B 2005, 109, 3519-3525) which showed that this ideal behavior is independent of the temperature and allows the molar volume of a given ionic liquid to be calculated by the sum of the effective molar volume of the component ions. Using this assumption, the effective molar volumes of ions constituting more than 220 different ionic liquids were calculated as a function of the temperature at 0.1 MPa using more than 2150 data points. These calculated results were used to build up a group contribution model for the calculation of ionic liquid molar volumes and densities with an estimated repeatability and uncertainty of 0.36% and 0.48%, respectively. The impact of impurities (water and halide content) in ionic liquids as well as the method of determination were also analyzed and quantified to estimate the overall uncertainty. © 2008 American Chemical Society.

Prediction of failure and fracture mechanisms of polymeric composites using finite element analysis. Part 1:Particulate filled composites

Micro-mechanical analysis of polymeric composites provides a powerful means for the quantitative assessment of their bulk behavior. In this paper we describe a robust finite element model (FEM) for the micro-structural modeling of the behavior of particulate filled polymer composites under external loads. The developed model is applied to simulate stress distribution in polymer composites containing particulate fillers. Quantitative information about the magnitude and location of maximum stress concentrations obtained from these simulations is used to predict the dominant failure and crack growth mechanisms in these composites. The model predictions are compared with the available experimental data and also with the values found using other methods reported in the literature. These comparisons show the range of the validity of the developed model and its predictive potential.

Prediction of failure and fracture mechanisms of polymeric composites using finite element analysis. Part 2:Fiber reinforced composites

A robust finite element scheme for the micro-mechanical modeling of the behavior of fiber reinforced polymeric composites under external loads is developed. The developed model is used to simulate stress distribution throughout the composite domain and to identify the locations where maximum stress concentrations occur. This information is used as a guide to predict dominant failure and crack growth mechanisms in fiber reinforced composites. The differences between continuous fibers, which are susceptible to unidirectional transverse fracture, and short fibers have been demonstrated. To assess the validity and range of applicability of the developed scheme, numerical results obtained by the model are compared with the available experimental data and also with the values found using other methods reported in the literature. These comparisons show that the present finite element scheme can generate meaningful results in the analysis of fiber reinforced composites.

Personality traits and personal values : an investigation into the importance of each in the prediction of behaviour /

Personality traits and personal values are two important domains of individual differences. Traits are enduring and distinguishable patterns of behaviour whereas values are societally taught, stable, individual preferences that guide behaviour in order to reach a specific end state. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relations between self and peer report within the domains of personality traits and values, to examine the correlations between values and traits, and to explore the amount of incremental validity of traits and values in predicting behaviour. Two hundred and fiftytwo men and women from a university setting completed self and peer reports on three questionnaires. In order to assess personality traits, the HEXACO-PI (Lee & Ashton, 2004) was used to identify levels of 6 major dimensions of personality in participants. To assess values, the Schwartz Value Survey (Schwartz, 1992) was used to identify the importance each participant placed on each of Schwartz's 10 value types. To measure behaviour, a Behavior Scale, created by Bardi and Schwartz (2003), consisting of items designed to measure the frequency of value-expressive behaviour was used. As expected, correlations between self and peer reports for the personality scales were high indicating that personality traits are easily observable to other people. Correlations between self and peer reports for the values and behaviour scales were only moderate, suggesting that some goals, and behaviours expressive of those goals, may not always be observable to others. Consistent with previous research, there were many strong correlations between traits and values. In addition to the similarities with past research, the present study found that the personality factor Honesty-Humility was correlated strongly with values scales (with five correlations exceeding .25). In the prediction of behaviour, it was found that both personahty and values were able to account for significant and similar amounts of variance. Personality outpredicted values for some behaviours, but the opposite was true of other behaviours. Each domain provided incremental validity beyond the other domain. The impUcations for these findings, along with limitations, and possibilities for future research are also discussed.

A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of alcohol-related harm from controlled drinking stragegies and alcohol consumption trajectories

Aims To establish predictors of age 21 alcohol-related harm from prior drinking patterns, current levels of alcohol consumption and use of controlled drinking strategies.
Participants One thousand, five hundred and ninety-six students recruited from an initial sample of 3300 during their final year of high school in 1993.
Design Longitudinal follow-up across five waves of data collection.
Setting Post high school in Victoria, Australia.
Measurements Self-administered surveys examining a range of health behaviours, including alcohol consumption patterns and related behaviour.
Findings Drinking behaviours at age 21 were found to be strongly predicted by drinking trajectories established through the transition from high school. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that alcohol-related harms at age 21 were reduced where current levels of alcohol use fell within limits recommended in Australian national guidelines. After controlling for this effect it was found that the range of strategies employed by participants to control alcohol use maintained a small protective influence. Post-high-school drinking trajectories continued to demonstrate a significant effect after controlling for current behaviours. Findings revealed that over one quarter of males and females drank alcohol, but on a less-than-weekly basis. This pattern of alcohol use demonstrated considerable stability through the post-school transition and was associated with a low level of subsequent harm at age 21.
Conclusions Future research should investigate whether encouraging more Australian adolescents to drink alcohol on a less-than-weekly basis may be a practical intervention target for reducing alcohol-related harms.

Prediction of alcohol-related harm from controlled drinking strategies and alcohol consumption trajectories

Aims To establish predictors of age 21 alcohol-related harm from prior drinking patterns, current levels of alcohol consumption and use of controlled drinking strategies.

Participants One thousand, five hundred and ninety-six students recruited from an initial sample of 3300 during their final year of high school in 1993.

Design Longitudinal follow-up across five waves of data collection.

Setting Post high school in Victoria, Australia.

Measurements Self-administered surveys examining a range of health behaviours, including alcohol consumption patterns and related behaviour.

Findings Drinking behaviours at age 21 were found to be strongly predicted by drinking trajectories established through the transition from high school. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that alcohol-related harms at age 21 were reduced where current levels of alcohol use fell within limits recommended in Australian national guidelines. After controlling for this effect it was found that the range of strategies employed by participants to control alcohol use maintained a small protective influence. Post-high-school drinking trajectories continued to demonstrate a significant effect after controlling for current behaviours. Findings revealed that over one quarter of males and females drank alcohol, but on a less-than-weekly basis. This pattern of alcohol use demonstrated considerable stability through the post-school transition and was associated with a low level of subsequent harm at age 21.

Conclusions Future research should investigate whether encouraging more Australian adolescents to drink alcohol on a less-than-weekly basis may be a practical intervention target for reducing alcohol-related harms.

Analytical model of pass-by-pass strain in rod (or bar) rolling and its applications to prediction of austenite grain size

Rod rolling is a process where the deformation state of the workpiece between the work rolls is quite different from the strip rolling process. However, in most microstructure evolution models, the simple area strains (natural logarithm of the area reduction ratio) multiplied by a constant have been used to compute pass-by-pass evolution of austenite grain size (AGS) in rod (or bar) rolling, without any verification. The strains at a given pass play a crucial role in determining the recrystallization behavior (static or dynamic). In this study, an analytical model that calculates the pass-by-pass strain and strain rate in rod rolling has been developed and verified by conducting four-pass (oval–round) bar and plate rolling experiments. Numerical simulations have then been carried out for the four-pass rolling sequence using the area strain model and the new analytical model, focusing on the effect of the method for calculating the strain on the recrystallization behavior and evolution of AGS. The AGS predicted was compared with those obtained from hot torsion tests. It is shown that the analytical model developed in this study is more appropriate in the analysis of bar (or rod) rolling. It was found that the recrystallization behavior and evolution of AGS during this process were influenced significantly by the calculation method for the deformation parameters (strain and strain rate). The pass-by-pass strain obtained from the simple area strain model is inadequate to be used as an input to the equations for recrystallization and AGS evolution under these rolling conditions.

Manualised treatment and dropout : a study of parent training

Parents who dropped out of manualised parent training programs for children with externalising behaviour disorders were interviewed retrospectively and compared prospectively with parents who continued in these programs. Parents who dropped out tended to feel more overwhelmed by their situation, because their child's behaviour problems were more severe, they had single parent status or had more than one child with difficulties.

Prediction of pedestrians routes within a built environment in normal conditions

Modelling and prediction of pedestrian routing behaviours within known built environments has recently attracted the attention of researchers across multiple disciplines, owing to the growing demand on urban resources and requirements for efficient use of public facilities. This study presents an investigation into pedestrians' routing behaviours within an indoor environment under normal, non-panic situations. A network-based method using constrained Delaunay triangulation is adopted, and a utility-based model employing dynamic programming is developed. The main contribution of this study is the formulation of an appropriate utility function that allows an effective application of dynamic programming to predict a series of consecutive waypoints within a built environment. The aim is to generate accurate sequence waypoints for the pedestrian walking path using only structural definitions of the environment as defined in a standard CAD format. The simulation results are benchmarked against those from the A* algorithm, and the outcome positively indicates the usefulness of the proposed method in predicting pedestrians' route selection activities. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of FLD of sheet metals based on crystal plasticity model

 In some advanced sheet metal forming processes such as the incremental forming process, a local fracture strain after necking is very important. In order to accurately predict necking and fracture phenomena, a crystal plasticity model is introduced in the finite element analysis of tensile tests. A tensile specimen is modeled by many grains that have their own crystalline orientation. And each of the grains is discretized by many elements. Using this analysis, necking behavior of a tensile specimen can be predicted without any initial imperfections. A damage model is also implemented to predict sudden drops of load carrying capacity after necking and to reflect the void nucleation and growth of the severely deformed region. From an analysis of the tensile test, the necking behavior is well predicted. Finally, analyses are carried out for various strain paths, and FLDs up to necking and fracture are predicted.

Longitudinal prediction of mid-adolescent psychosocial outcomes from early adolescent family help seeking and family support

This study examined whether family help seeking and family support represented the same or distinct constructs and prospective associations between emergent constructs and psychosocial outcomes. Data were from 1,713 school-based adolescents participating in a randomized controlled trial, in Victoria, Australia. Family help seeking emerged as a single factor, distinct from family support, and was prospectively associated with improved psychosocial outcomes. Father closeness predicted lower depressive symptoms. Family help seeking predicted higher help seeking for peers. Interactions between family help seeking and family support on psychosocial outcomes were not apparent. Findings highlight the importance of examining family help seeking and family support separately in future studies of adolescents' help-seeking behavior.

Prediction of the combustion process in fluidized bed based on physical-chemical properties of biomass particles and their hydrodynamic behaviors

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)